Post by Lazy Pete on Oct 31, 2016 12:55:08 GMT -6
State of the Atlantic
Some call it the best division in the league. Others call it overrated. Is this division really the meat grinder it's touted as, or are some of the mid-tier and bottom-tier teams simply riding the coattails? This article will look at the teams as currently constructed and project how they do this season and over the next three years.
Boston CelticsLast year's record: 63-19, League Champion
Key Additions: Michael Dickerson, Corey Benjamin, Robert Newton
Key Losses: Robert Covington, Tanner Cousy
Major Offseason moves: Larry Bird resigns for the max
Current Outlook: Smuggy
Much to the chagrin of the rest of the league, this is the three-time defending champion and there are no signs of that dominance stopping this year. The biggest news of the offseason was the return of Larry Bird on a 6 year max. The Celtics have all 5 starters locked in for the next 2 years at least, and no one is old enough to expect any significant decline in play.
If there's one concern about this team, it's the lack of depth behind the marquee names. Last year this team had a surplus of quality wings behind JJ and Bird with Robert Covington, Tanner Cousy, and Sandor Clegane. This year, they've added some young talent in Newton and Dickerson but don't really have any proven back-ups except for Mayberry and Tyra. Dump has done well drafting in the latter half of the 1st and 2nd round though, so it may not end up being too much of a problem. Also, they're bound to get a year where none of their major players gets injured, something that has somehow hit them every season and yet hasn't done anything to slow them down.
Future Outlook: Slightly less smuggy
Let's be honest, there's very little trouble on the horizon for the fighting dumptimes. Jimmy, Francis and Gobert are now on the wrong side of 30, but Francis is the only one that might be expected to decline in the next 3 seasons.
The offseason after this one will be interesting, as Gobert and Jackson both hit FA. Based on the market the last few seasons, Gobert won't command a deal close to what he's making now, but Jimmy will be interesting to watch. Some (Heebs) may be eyeing a chance to sign away the 1st ballot HOFer, based on him already jumping ship once in his career, but I think another departure is probably unlikely. The 2nd max contract gives the team w/ Bird rights a lot bigger advantage in what they can offer, and this is a case where I think Dump splurges to make sure he's got a better offer than anyone else can send.
Even if Francis's play declines sharply, the Celtics have the core in place and enough young assets, picks and flexibility to find a good enough PG to keep them in contention.
Projection: Clear title favorites again this season, still in contention with the window starting to close three seasons from now.
Miami HeatLast year's record: 60-22, Conference Semi-finals
Key additions: Halawi Winabi
Key Losses: Roger Phegley, Rowdy Eavenson
Major Offseason moves: Lost Phegley to the Warriors
Current Outlook: Cloudy with a chance of Tank
Last year the Heat were one of the most surprising teams in the league. Canes spent most of the season trying unsuccessfully to sell of his players and start a tank, but despite that they won 60 games for only the 2nd time ever in franchise history and for the first time in 24 seasons. However, they had a major loss this offseason with the loss of Roger Phegley to the Warriors in free agency. Phegley was an unheralded draft pick but had morphed into a top-flight defensive wing and showed promise on offense as well. His improved play was most likely the biggest reason the Heat topped 60, and his departure leaves a gaping hole on the wing.
The rest of the gang is all here. Zo is still one of the best 2-way bigs in the league, Dolph has quietly taken a leap from solid to legit all-star, and Penny and Jabari are still getting it done everywhere except in the turnover department. Diogu was the standout performer of summer league, but couldn't repeat that success as the primary back-up of the bench last season. Still, he scored efficiently for a big and if he can somehow get his defense to be passable, he could have a promising future. Canes has already posted another trade block to try and sell off again, and it seems like we're nearing the end of another era in Heat history.
Future Outlook: Two roads diverged in a wood. Do you take the well-beaten path, or opt for the road less traveled? It will make all the difference
Seems like Canes will be opting for the well-beaten path of tanking. He's reaching the last season or two to get any decent return on his players. In a few seasons I expect this roster to be pretty barren, except for some developmental pieces such as Diogu and maybe Blatche. Unfortunately for Canes, the league seems to be a perpetual buyer's market, and there's a very real possibility that he doesn't get any offers that make it worth tearing down the team.
If he decides that there isn't anything to his liking on the trade market, he's still got the pieces in place to be a latter-half playoff team in the next few years. Zo and Penny should still have a couple years at least before hitting a decline, and while Parker has been in the league a long time he's somehow only 31. If Canes looked around, he could probably find a decent enough wing on the trade market or in FA and keep the engine running a little longer, but last year was probably the ceiling for this team as currently constructed.
Projection: Canes tries to sell off for most of the season but only succeeds in moving Penny. The Heat fall into the back end of the lotto before moving Zo in the offseason and re-enter the tanking waters in time for LeBron/Wade/Bosh.
New Jersey NetsLast year's record: 61-21, Conference Semi-finals
Key additions: Tyron Lue, Woody Sauldsberry, Vin Baker
Key losses: Sam Jones, Gorgui Dieng, Freeman Williams
Major Offseason moves: Traded Sam Jones to the Knicks for 2 Lakers firsts and 4 Knicks 1sts, Played Fason in a way that would make Charlie Daniels blush and convinced him to sign Prince away from the Lakers
Current Outlook: Reloaded
Heebs has one of the strongest GM resumes since I've been in the league, and this offseason was a great example of why the Nets are going to be the first team to 2000 wins all-time. Coming off a 60 win season in which they posted a top-5 point differential and a team set up to contend for several years, Heebs chose to be aggressive and made a trade that sent away his best player for a boatload of picks. For most teams, this would be a sign that a full-fledged sell-off would be soon to follow, but the Nets aren't most teams.
They've still got a great defensive combo on the wings with Oladipo and Dominique, and Lockhart still is capable of chipping in as a reserve. Their front court is a strength, with Shaq coming off of an incredible season where he shattered the record for RPG. Woody was a steal for the LLE, and Pau morphed from bust to sixth man of the year behind a surprisingly competent offseason performance. If that turns out to be the norm instead of an exception, then his contract is one of the best bargains in the league.
The most intriguing spot this season is at PG, where Hot Rod and his ridiculous contract suddenly has some real competition for his starting job. Tyronn Lue fell a bit further in the draft than I was expecting, but had a great TC and decent preseason. I'm not sure that he showed enough to justify making Hot Rod a super-sub this season, but he'll probably get some extended run for Heebs to see what he's got.
Future Outlook: Flexibility and Stability
The Nets are one of the only franchises that can seamlessly contend year after year and still rebuild for the future without tanking. There's no reason to expect the next few years to be any different. Heebs is in a little bit of trouble on the wings, where Dipo and Wilkins are both 30 and neither is the kind of dynamic scorer you usually find at those positions.
Heebs has a pretty solid warchest of picks, especially since those Lakers picks have gone up in value, and could choose to either pursue an immediate upgrade or try and develop players through the draft to take over when those two slow down. Hodge is someone I liked a lot after last TC but he kind of went sideways this past offseason so I'm not sure if he's the answer. He's got the assets in place to go after a guy like Karasev, but the hardball negotiations so far may indicate this is just a dead end. Either way, Heebs has a proven track record to keep his teams rolling at 50+ wins no matter what, so I don't see any signs of that stopping.
Projection: The Nets win at least 50 games for the next few seasons and Heebs trades for a wing upgrade or two.
New York KnicksLast year's record: 47-35, 1st round exit
Key additions: Sam Jones, Gorgui Dieng, Clayton Abdul-Jabbar
Key losses: Kevin Garnett, Woody Sauldsberry, Ladd O'Tiquette
Major Offseason moves: Sam Jones trade, Butch Lee resigning
Current Outlook: 8 seed Championship winner
This was a make-or-break offseason for the Knicks to build a team capable of more than a competitive 1st round exit. They had tons of cap space this offseason and lost a major contributor as KG finally decided to hang it up. As the hometown team for Larry Bird, they were dealt a tough blow when he decided not to test free agency, and Eric had to resort to plan B. He made the most significant trade to acquire talent in Knicks history, mortgaging his future picks and the picks he got for the Karasev trade to pick up Sam Jones, an elite two-way wing and the kind of alpha dog that Eric's teams have lacked since Karasev was a Knick.
He used the rest of his cap space to resign Butch Lee, who proved to be very good in his first season in New York, and will form a three-headed monster at PG with Darrick Martin and Carl Nicks. Lee looks like he might be able to defend a little, which neither Martin or Nicks are capable of. Hawkeye is a good defender and always offers to resign for cheap, so I get why Eric spent a first for him last year. In the front court, there are a lot of good players that should collectively play very good defense and not do much else. Valanciunas is still a beast on the boards, but that was never Clayton's strong suit and Dieng looks to have lost it completely. As long as they're blocking shots, Eric is happy.
Future Outlook: 8 seed Championship winner
Despite the major trade and a lot of new faces, I expect the Knicks to have more of the same over the next three years. I like Sam Jones but he's already 29, so he'll be hitting the latter half of his career. Hawkeye and Valanciunas are teetering on the edge, and there aren't many players on the roster right now that I think will develop into anything more than a solid contributor. John Jenkins is the best bet for a future running mate for Butch and Sam, and Eric loved his efficiency. He's got a bit of a turnover problem but if that can get under control then I could see him filling the void if and when Hawkeye's play slips. This projection is probably the safest bet in the league, as Eric has hung around this range pretty much since he entered the league.
Projection: The Knicks weather the storm of some aging pieces by finding bargain FA deals to replace production, but they still fail to break through to the upper echelon of teams.
Orlando MagicLast year's record: 23-59, missed playoffs
Key additions: Matt Harpring, Cuttino Mobley
Key losses: Bobby Hurley
Major Offseason moves: none
Current Outlook:
in a wastelandThere's not a ton to say about this team. Chris Paul was fantastic last season and looks like he is going to have a long career as one of the better PGs in the league. Draymond didn't take the step forward MJ was probably hoping for, but his grade set is still interesting and with some investment he might still turn into another piece.
Outside of that, there's not a lot to like. Harpring had an OK training camp, but didn't get any preseason minutes and his performance in the summit games suggest that he may be a long way away from relevancy. Caldwell-Pope is okay but won't be part of the Magic's core and isn't good enough to provide CP3 with a competent wing partner or offense this season.
All of this is okay considering the goal this year is to suck and suck hard. Paul is worth a few wins by himself, but the lack of talent in Orlando means this will be a team near the top of the lotto next year. Probably the best move of the season last year for MJ was getting a 1st round pick from Delap for Michael Brooks, who was the benefit of some empty calorie stats last season.
It's clear that the Magic have one building block in place. Hopefully after this season they can add to that.
Future Outlook:
and some more lotto picksAs I just laid out above, I don't think there's much to get excited about on this roster beyond CP3 and maybe Draymond/Harpring. The future of the Magic depends on who they can get in the next couple seasons in the draft. If CP3 plays out of his mind, he could keep them out of the sweet spot for someone like John Havlicek or the '03 treasure trove, but I think it's more likely that the Magic end up with at least one other stud out of the next couple classes.
The real question is whether MJ can stay active enough to develop the young players that do end up in Orlando. He's been using some SCs, so hopefully that trend continues. But I am bearish on the Magic moving forward.
Projection: The Magic are not ready to compete by the time CP3's rookie contract ends, but he resigns in Orlando
Philadelphia 76ersLast year's record: 6-76, missed playoffs
Key additions: Prince Rogers Nelson, Al Harrington, Wayman Tisdale
Key losses: James Worthy, Andre Drummond, Kent Bazemore
Major offseason moves: Traded the fourth overall pick for 4 Hornets firsts, signed Prince in FA, bought out James Worthy
Current Outlook: Hinkie season is upon us!
Fason's teambuilding strategy is no secret, but he has proven several times that he is among the best in the biz at tearing down and rebuilding with a new core. We're in the midst of a scorched earth tank that will last at least another couple seasons, as Fason loaded up the war chest with picks last season and doubled down this offseason by trading away the fruits of his 6-76 labor. He got a big haul from Fecta for the #4 pick, and is prepared to suck it up through the Lebron draft or longer and then deal whatever leftover picks he has once he's gotten a couple keepers in the draft.
The Prince signing is a bit out of character, as it will prevent him from playing his tanking tandem at PG, but whatever haul he gets for Prince at Day 90 will probably be worth sacrificing a spot or two in the lotto odds (at least according to Heebs).
There are a couple players that I'm interested in seeing this season, like Al Harrington and Chandler Chandler, but overall this will be another season in the tanking race for the Sixers.
Future Outlook: The bones of a contender
As mentioned, the Sixers will not be ready to move until at least a couple seasons from now, and that's only if Fason can find a couple keepers in the draft.
His mountain of 1sts may seem like a huge plus on the surface, but a less experienced GM might end up hamstringing themselves by winding up with a roster full of rookie contracts and no flexibility to make trades. Fason knows what he's doing though, and the Sixers will not be the team making a majority of the picks that he owns right now.
I'll be interested to see what happens if the Sixers hit some bad luck in the draft, as Fason has gotten fairly lucky during these scorched earth tanks and avoided major busts.
Projection: The Sixers land two of Havlicek/Lucas/Hawkins and LeBron/Wade/Melo/Bosh and by year 3 are one or two seasons away from contender status
Washington BulletsLast year's record: 53-29, 1st round exit
Key additions: Tanner Cousy, Popeye Jones, Sim Ocho (yet again!)
Key departures: Sim Dump, Tobias Harris, Ervin "No Magic" Johnson
Current Outlook: Swan Song for Kyriesus
The Bullets's legendary backcourt looked mortal for the first time last season. KN rolled the dice by dealing for Sim Dump, but the move failed to improve the team's performance much and they wound up with a surprisingly pedestrian 7 seed and a first round exit courtesy of King Joffrey.
This is probably the final chapter in a great run for the Bullets that saw them win their first title and make the finals 3 other times. KN has a trade block up to see about trading away his stars, but they're probably past the point in their careers where he can expect a big return on them. Jesus was forced to play SF a lot last year, so a return to SG might get him back on track, but Kyrie appears to be in the decline phase of his career. There's enough quality in the front court and among the backups (Brent Price may never get a shot at running PG for his own team but he remains ridiculously overqualified as a backup) that I think they are set up for a solid bounce-back year if they decide to stand pat.
The biggest thing holding back the teardown is that KN doesn't own his pick for a few more seasons, so he'll probably need to find a deal to get those back before he'll feel comfortable dismantling this team. I think they make the playoffs behind a strong season from Kyrie and Jesus and tear things down next offseason.
Future Outlook: Tanking again
There's not much to get excited about for the future in Washington. The writing is on the wall and almost all of his key players are 30+. KN is not the type to hang on for too long, so I think if he finds enough out there to tear down, he will.
But, as I mentioned above, I don't think that happens this season. The Bullets will not be able to tank for a little while and in 3 years they'll probably be only a season or two removed from having cleared the decks. As with Fason, Kn has shown that he's good at tanking and building through the draft, so I have no doubt that he'll return to prominence sooner rather than later.
Projection: The Bullets have a bounce back season this year, move Jesus in the offseason and get their picks back to start tanking next season.
Overall thoughts: The Atlantic is not quite the beast it once was. The Celtics are still a behemoth and the Nets, while a little worse this year, will stay right up there with them. The Heat and Bullets are still playoff caliber teams but are definitely on the decline, while the Knicks will continue to be the Knicks.
The division will still produce a fair share of playoff teams but I think after this season the balance of power in the East will flip to the Central, although the top of the Atlantic will still be stronger. The good news is obviously that the Atlantic is filled with experienced and successful GMs, so even a down period will not last long.
Hopefully I'll be able to do Central, Midwest and Pacific too. Not sure how busy I'll be this week but I'll aim for Central tomorrow, Midwest Wednesday and Pacific on Thursday.
