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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:41:04 GMT -6
He's doing the same thing you just did above though. I just explained why it's different. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:42:14 GMT -6
Another thing that changed the game...Ankly decided to bring mafia to the board. If he hadn't, we wouldn't have played these three games and no one would be a winner or loser. Makes you think.  |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 14:43:45 GMT -6
Gosh guys, I'm so sorry for sharing insight on the inner workings of the mafia from last game. I guess maybe there is a different thread for that? I'll go look.
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 14, 2017 14:53:43 GMT -6
Guys listen. Nobody knows if something would have happened 100%
Unless gbg says it.
Sooner we learn that, better off we'll be.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 15:04:52 GMT -6
Guys listen. Nobody knows if something would have happened 100% Unless gbg says it. Sooner we learn that, better off we'll be. Only thing I say is 100% is that Eric would have been hit night 2 if Pete did not come out and admit that he was the cop. Feel free to ask Billy King. If he disagrees, I'll apologize for being a big fat liar. |
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Post by eric on Jun 14, 2017 15:05:30 GMT -6
it was lucky the town got you on the first day of the system, but the odds were always in the town's favor to win from the point they were at. see for yourself if a player picks three names at random on the first day, assuming they pick three different names: one in five chance of getting the mafia, four names left one in four chance of getting the mafia, three names left one in three chance of getting the mafia if the town picks randomly: day 4: seven players left, of whom two are known civs, thus one in five chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 80% of the time day 5: five players left, of whom one is a known civ, thus one in four chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 75% of the time day 6: three players left, of whom none are known civs, thus one in three chance of getting mafia: mafia survives 67% of the time 80% * 75% * 67% = 40% thus, 60-40 in the town's favor either way If I told you I was going to rng a 60-40 outcome for your life, would you not feel lucky that the 60% chance won? no and while we're talking about feelings, i don't feel a bulletin board game is comparable to life or death |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 15:05:56 GMT -6
Feel free to keep knocking down those strawmen, though.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 15:07:39 GMT -6
If I told you I was going to rng a 60-40 outcome for your life, would you not feel lucky that the 60% chance won? no and while we're talking about feelings, i don't feel a bulletin board game is comparable to life or death I didn't compare them. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 15:11:29 GMT -6
I personally would feel lucky to be alive in that situation, and that's where our opinions differ, eric. That question was purely for informational purposes, not to compare the game to that situation.
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Post by Heebs on Jun 14, 2017 15:33:14 GMT -6
I'm positive that BK would have agreed to hit eric night two had we not had a cop to target. I'm readying my MVP acceptance speech. |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 15:48:26 GMT -6
I never doubted you Heebs
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jun 14, 2017 15:49:08 GMT -6
I added some conditions, me being on the board and canes being on the board as potential reasons to change the outcome. Those things didn't happen; so we will never know what would have happened had the conditions been present. One of my first posts that last day was about taking you out. You were never gonna pull it off |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 16:05:16 GMT -6
I added some conditions, me being on the board and canes being on the board as potential reasons to change the outcome. Those things didn't happen; so we will never know what would have happened had the conditions been present. One of my first posts that last day was about taking you out. You were never gonna pull it off One of your last posts was if soup was a civ kill 20's and Delap; so it's possible I wouldn't pull it off, but only siths deal in absolutes. Remember that, young padawan. |
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jun 14, 2017 17:45:42 GMT -6
right after the last night, this was my final 4. I was 100% certain our last mafia was here.
this was where I said I was good taking a shot at you because at that time I wasn't sure who was the last mafia but I knew it was one of those 4.
so 20s says this and I think, this looks a little suspicious. Soup is on the chopping block and all of a sudden 20s is saying save him. in my mind 20s is either trying to settle in w/ the civs or is a civ himself. so I said to vote for 20s. I know its out of order, but I put in my vote for soup before reading 20s post. immediately switched it because I wanted to know for sure what was going on in 20s head.
soup's response to possibly dying the last round. exactly how I would expect him to react when he thinks im doing something dumb.
then the town goes back and forth between killing you and 20s. I actually miss all of this and come back to the plan of killing 20s. w/ soup next. 20s is on board and then I ask soup if he is ok dying next. He gives a response that I would expect from him. This is the last I see and in my mind I am praying I make it through the night (because I had to put my phone down) so I can make sure our last two shots are at you and delap. JHB shows up and finishes the job for me. It may not have been pretty, but there was definitely a targeted approach to that last day.
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 14, 2017 17:57:33 GMT -6
I had 5 - 1 votes for me with a timer on. Not sure how I ever recovered on that one.
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 18:01:52 GMT -6
I had 5 - 1 votes for me with a timer on. Not sure how I ever recovered on that one. We were mostly civs and there were some of us with sense enough to stop a majority timer and use our time |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 18:12:56 GMT -6
I had 5 - 1 votes for me with a timer on. Not sure how I ever recovered on that one. We were mostly civs and there were some of us with sense enough to stop a majority timer and use our time And it took a mafia member to stop the timer the first time Soup had majority to wait and allow JHB to weigh in before we let soup die. Somehow that makes me a prime suspect. |
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jun 14, 2017 18:59:09 GMT -6
We were mostly civs and there were some of us with sense enough to stop a majority timer and use our time And it took a mafia member to stop the timer the first time Soup had majority to wait and allow JHB to weigh in before we let soup die. Somehow that makes me a prime suspect. I suspected 20s for doing the exact same thing. |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 14, 2017 19:08:35 GMT -6
It was t suspicious that you stopped it, its that you stopped it but declared you would restart it immediately after I showed back up
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 14, 2017 19:31:22 GMT -6
I stopped it so you could get back and post your prime suspects list which is what canes wanted to be sure you had a chance to post before the night session where you could be killed.
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Bankz
Former GM 
Posts: 7,254
Likes: 895
Dump Bucks: 18,475
Joined: April 2014
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Post by Bankz on Jun 14, 2017 19:34:54 GMT -6
This league never changes...
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![[Account Deleted] Avatar](http://storage.proboards.com/5589790/avatar/ZhaFVHTxVPwmyuOiOKEd.png)
