Why Kevin Durant Should Change Teams This Summer (281 views)

[eric]

Next season will be Durant's 10th in the NBA.

LeBron James' career peaked in year 10:
best PER-USG
best WS/48
not best WP/48 but the highest he's had since
last MVP
last All-Defense 1st team
last(???) championship

Kevin Garnett peaked in year 9 with his only MVP and best WS/48, then had his best PER-USG and WP/48 in year 11.
Tim Duncan peaked in year 5 by WS/48, year 6 by PER-USG and last MVP, year 10 by WP/48.
Dirk like the polite German he is peaked in everything in year 9: only MVP, best WS/48, best PER-USG, best WP/48.
Shaq like the polite German he is peaked in everything in year 8: only MVP, best WS/48, best PER-USG, best WP/48.

This is not to say that Durant can't be on a title winning team after his peak, obviously, as there are seven rings post-peak in this sample (so far). This is also not to say that Durant can't be a valuable player after his peak; it in fact states that he will be just as each of these players were. This is only trying to ascertain when Durant will peak by investigating his peers: recent MVP forward/centers.

.

Here is the history of former MVPs changing teams:

Cousy and Cowens came out of retirement for five minutes. White boys, am I right ladies?
Wilt Chamberlain won an MVP with the Warriors and was traded midseason to the 76ers in 1965. They won the title in year 3.
He won three more MVPs with the 76ers and joined the Lakers in 1969. They won the title in year 4.
Oscar Robertson one MVP with the Royals, Bucks 1971. Title year 1 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar received Finals MVP.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar three MVPs with the Bucks, Lakers 1976. Title year 5 - Magic Johnson received Finals MVP.
Bob McAdoo one MVP with the Braves, Knicks 1977. They still have yet to win a title.
Bill Walton one MVP with the Trailblazers, Clippers 1980. They still have yet to reach the Finals.
Moses Malone two MVPs with the Rockets, 76ers 1983. Title year 1.
One more MVP with the 76ers, Bullets Wizards 1987. They did not win a playoff round until 2005, a couple years after he retired.
Hakeem Olajuwon one MVP with the Rockets, Raptors 2002. They are the Raptors.
Charles Barkley one MVP with the Suns, Rockets 1997. They made the Conference Finals that year and never won another playoff round.
Karl Malone two MVPs with the Jazz, Lakers 2004. They did not win the title in year 1 and blew up the team.
Shaquille O'Neal one MVP with the Lakers, Heat 2005. Title year 2 - Dwyane Wade received Finals MVP.
Allen Iverson one MVP with the 76ers, Nuggets 2007. They didn't win a round with him.
Kevin Garnett one MVP with the Timberwolves, Celtics 2008. Title year 1 - Paul Pierce received Finals MVP.
Steve Nash two MVPs with the Suns, Lakers 2013. Haven't won a playoff game since.
LeBron James two MVPs with the Cavaliers, took his talents to South Beach 2011. They won the title in year 2.
Two more MVPs with the Heat, Cavaliers 2015. Titles TBD but definitely not in year 1.

All told we have closed the books on 16 team changes,
8 of which resulted in a title eventually,
3 of which resulted in a title in year 1,
1 of which saw the former MVP win FMVP.

So what?

So Durant has maybe one year left of being as good as he is. The 83 Moses play is already a one in sixteen shot, Durant can't afford to wait another year when he will be in decline and make it even more unlikely. If he goes to a team that needs multiple years to build cohesion or roster or whatever, he is even more incentivized to do so as soon as possible because he will be even further in decline by the target year.

.

.

Durant is a great player. Everyone declines, even the very greatest players, and as it happens they start declining right around where he is in his career now. If he wants to time the next cap boom he can sign the same two year player option deal with any other team with $28m cap space, and everybody either has or can very easily make cap space for Kevin Durant.

[gbgalla24]

What team can he go to that would have a better shot at winning a title, in your opinion?

[Deleted]

Jun 10, 2016 12:33:37 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

What team can he go to that would have a better shot at winning a title, in your opinion?

Warriors

[eric]

Jun 10, 2016 12:33:37 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

What team can he go to that would have a better shot at winning a title, in your opinion?

better shot next year Golden State, San Antonio, Cleveland, Toronto, Washington, dark horses Boston (if they can get another star) and Heat (depending on Bosh's health)

better shot in the years to come, pretty much anybody, and that's what I think his focus should be. Like we saw with Houston, getting the first star is harder than getting the second, and there's another ~$15m jump coming for the 2017 summer to make it even easier. Everyone said 2011 was title or bust for the Heat. They didn't win a title in 2011. And it worked out pretty well for them.

I keep coming back to the lesson of the 2013 Pacers. They came out of nowhere and took the defending and eventual champion Heat to seven games, Roy Hibbert was the best young center in the NBA (even the great Zach Lowe predicted him to be 2014 DPOY), they just matched up so well. That offseason they went full on win-now mode: gave up Gerald Green Miles Plumlee and a first round pick for Luis Scola, brought in Andrew Bynum, switched DJ Augustin for CJ Watson... and they were outclassed by the staggering 2014 Heat that would get obliterated by the Spurs in the Finals.

You've got to strike while the iron is hot, but sometimes all you've got is fool's gold. Roy Hibbert went from scoring 22 ppg on 55% shooting in the 2013 ECF to 11 ppg on 42% in the 2014 ECF. He didn't forget how to be tall, or how to have long arms, or that he was much, much, much bigger than Chris Bosh. All the reasons people floated in 2013 were still true, but the outcome was completely different. Certain people in shout get annoyed when I say this, but it's true: there are no match-ups in this sense. There's only being better and being lucky.

Going off the regular season the Thunder aren't in the Warriors' league, the only team that is is San Antonio. Also notice that the Thunder are older than Golden State: Durant is in his 9th year, Steph only 7th. Westbrook 8th, Klay 5th. Ibaka 7th, Draymond 4th. If anyone's getting better by aging a year it's Golden State, not OKC.

So the question is, what reason do we have to believe that the postseason near miss of these Thunder is any different from the Pacers' before them? A wildly entertaining small sample aberration, flying in the face of the larger sample not because it revealed a hidden truth but because that's just what small samples do sometimes?

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 10, 2016 12:33:37 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

What team can he go to that would have a better shot at winning a title, in your opinion?

Heat obviously

Dragic
Wade
KD
Blood Clot Bosh
Whiteside

>>>>
Cavs

SPOILER: Click to show

I do not expect KD to sign with the heat

[gbgalla24]

Jun 10, 2016 14:38:19 GMT -6 Citizen Cane said:

Jun 10, 2016 12:33:37 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

What team can he go to that would have a better shot at winning a title, in your opinion?

Heat obviously

Dragic
Wade
KD
Blood Clot Bosh
Whiteside

>>>>
Cavs

SPOILER: Click to show

I do not expect KD to sign with the heat

The question is, are the Heat with KD better than the Thunder with KD. I have my doubts.

[gbgalla24]

Going to the Warriors would hurt his legacy more than Lebron going to the Heat, imo. I guess Boston could be a place where he can raise his status if he can get them to the finals. I don't think Toronto or Boston are better than OKC with Durant, though.

[gbgalla24]

If the argument is that he has to win now while he is as good as he'll get then I think he should stay put.

[eric]

Jun 10, 2016 15:04:41 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

Going to the Warriors would hurt his legacy more than Lebron going to the Heat, imo. I guess Boston could be a place where he can raise his status if he can get them to the finals. I don't think Toronto or Boston are better than OKC with Durant, though.

Maybe, maybe not. What he should definitely know is that OKC with Durant is not better than GSW next year. Leaving now gets him two things: less chance of facing GSW (if he goes East) and starting a year earlier on building his new team (regardless of where he goes).

Staying in OKC only makes sense if Steph Curry walks out the door tonight and gets hit by a bus, and if that happens the door is just as open for any other team so even then it doesn't make sense to stay.

[eric]

Jun 10, 2016 15:05:31 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

If the argument is that he has to win now while he is as good as he'll get then I think he should stay put.

The argument is that he has to win now, but also that his chance with OKC is slim to none, so he's wasting his last best shot.

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 10, 2016 14:58:51 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

Jun 10, 2016 14:38:19 GMT -6 Citizen Cane said:

Heat obviously

Dragic
Wade
KD
Blood Clot Bosh
Whiteside

<<<<
Cavs

SPOILER: Click to show

I do not expect KD to sign with the heat

The question is, are the Heat with KD better than the Thunder with KD. I have my doubts.

No. But his path to the finals is much easier. 

[Heynong Man]

Portland

[gbgalla24]

My thing is you just took the best team in the league to a game 7. They weren't so outclassed that they don't stand a chance against the Warriors. Yes, the Warriors are younger but by Eric's calculations, the Thunder are closer to their peak primes than the Warriors anyways. They are experienced and, but not old. To win a title, you're likely going to have to go through the Warriors anyways; so the only argument you can make is he should join the Cavs or the Warriors to have a better shot at the title. The Spurs were better this year, but they are old and getting further away from their primes for the most part. Unless you think Kahwi, LMA, and Durant are better than Durant with Westbrook and Co. which I suppose you could make a case for. I think he should stay out so he doesn't have to learn a new system and if it doesn't work out next year he should move on to the next stage of his career.

[eric]

Jun 10, 2016 16:44:11 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

My thing is you just took the best team in the league to a game 7. They weren't so outclassed that they don't stand a chance against the Warriors. Yes, the Warriors are younger but by Eric's calculations, the Thunder are closer to their peak primes than the Warriors anyways.

To clarify one point that I now realize I left unclear, the value I was trying to calculate was the END of the prime. When players BEGIN their prime and whether there is a length to it is a different matter, but I would agree that we shouldn't expect Curry (or any of the OKC guys) to get better next year.

They are experienced and, but not old. To win a title, you're likely going to have to go through the Warriors anyways; so the only argument you can make is he should join the Cavs or the Warriors to have a better shot at the title. The Spurs were better this year, but they are old and getting further away from their primes for the most part. Unless you think Kahwi, LMA, and Durant are better than Durant with Westbrook and Co. which I suppose you could make a case for. I think he should stay out so he doesn't have to learn a new system and if it doesn't work out next year he should move on to the next stage of his career.

Kawhi/LMA/Durant is very sexy. Kawhi is a good offensive player and I'd love to have him as a #2 option on my team, but imagine if he could devote all of his energy to defense. He's essentially a much, much, much better version of Klay Thompson. LMA is no Green but he's no slouch either. And then there's Pop.

And I definitely agree that no Western team besides the Warriors or Spurs make sense for the reasons you cite, but I think there's a lot more wiggle room in the East. LeBron is declining, Kyrie and Love aren't improving. Switch DeRozan for Durant, pop in a healthy Jonas and that ECF definitely goes the other way.

Likely to have to face the Warriors eventually, of course, but all this is a question of maximizing your odds. If the Warriors have to win 3 series before you face them instead of 2 or 1, you've got better odds because the best team doesn't always win a series. Jordan lost to Shaq, Magic lost to Isiah, Kareem lost to Hakeem, LeBron lost to Dirk. It happens, and the more chances you make the best team go through before you face them the better your odds are.

[Bankz]

Jun 10, 2016 16:02:24 GMT -6 Citizen Cane said:

Jun 10, 2016 14:58:51 GMT -6 gbgalla24 said:

The question is, are the Heat with KD better than the Thunder with KD. I have my doubts.

No. But his path to the finals is much easier. 

funny you make this case now when it favors the heat.

When we spoke about it the other day you said it didn't mean shit lol.

[Bankz]

Clearly his best option is Chicago... Now you all can go fuck off

[Lazy Pete]

#kd2d

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 10, 2016 19:05:12 GMT -6 Bankz said:

Jun 10, 2016 16:02:24 GMT -6 Citizen Cane said:

No. But his path to the finals is much easier. 

funny you make this case now when it favors the heat.

When we spoke about it the other day you said it didn't mean shit lol.

Are you talking about when I said  that it doesn't matter that Lebron made it to 6 straight finals? That's not my point here. I'm saying that by moving to the east KD wouldn't have to worry about playing a team like the Spurs in the 2nd round. It makes his path to a title exponentially easier. 

[Druce]

welp