Post by eric on Aug 5, 2016 15:35:07 GMT -6
I decided to see if the NBA greats could follow a monarchical pattern, where one reigned uninterrupted and only once per career. I feel like they mostly do:
1957-66 Bill Russell
1967-73 Wilt Chamberlain
1974-80 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1981-86 Larry Bird
1987-90 Magic Johnson
1991-98 Michael Jordan
99-2002 Shaquille O'Neal
2003-08 Tim Duncan
2009-?? LeBron James
LeBron's could already be over, but for now let's treat it as running through 2016. Here are some common trends for every reign:
-at least four years long.
-at least one MVP, two championships, and three Finals appearances except Kareem's, which has four one and two respectively.
-at least one Finals MVP (where eligible), except Kareem's which has zero.
-50% or better in years as All-NBA First and All-Star except Russell's and Wilt's, which were 30% and 29% in All-NBA 1st.
-67% or better in years as top five Win Shares (regular season and playoffs) except Duncan's (50% regular) and Kareem's (43% playoffs).
-at least 58 team wins per season (prorated for shorter seasons) except Kareem's which was 49(!!)
So Kareem's obviously sticks out in a lot of ways as not matching. He's clearly an all time great of the highest order, but his career has this weird fallow period in the middle that doesn't make a lot of sense. It's not just that he wasn't winning rings, it's that he wasn't anywhere close. He missed the playoffs two years in a row (75 Bucks and 76 Lakers) and was under .500 both times(!!!). Factor in the next three years and he won a total of two rounds over five years, an astonishingly poor performance unparalleled by any other reign.
The first thing I considered was changing the end points of his reign. I don't think we can go earlier, because that only helps if we go all the way back to the 1971 MVP FMVP Championship and all around OMG season. This would also get his reign three more All-NBA Firsts and another two MVPs (not that he needs them) and bring its team wins average up to 53... but that's still way below everyone else, and it would be even worse in playoffs top five Win Shares at 40%, and it leaves Wilt's as the only one with less than two championships. This last point compounds the larger concern that if Kareem was the greatest in 1972 and 1973, why was Wilt in the Finals? winning Finals MVP? setting a team wins record that would last 25 years? setting a win streak record that would last 40 years?
It also doesn't make any sense to go longer into the future for most of the same reasons. He doesn't get a Finals MVP until 85, and that was in the middle of Bird's great three year run of two FMVP and three MVP.
The second thing I considered was whether there was someone else to consider. Willis Reed gives you an MVP, two Finals MVPs, and three Finals from 1970-73, but then he plays 19 games in 74 and his career is over. He also only gets you the one All-NBA 1st, his Win Share and team wins performance is modest for this crowd. Moses Malone is promising with three MVPs and a Finals MVP from 79 to 83, but his team wins are even worse than Kareem's and his time period makes our problems worse: Kareem 74-78 has no rings, Moses going to 83 cramps Bird to a three year reign.
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My feeling is that the real answer lies in the ABA. Julius Erving has two rings and two and a half MVPs from 74-76, then two more Finals in the NBA from 77-80. Five combined First Teams and seven All Stars, five and four for Win Shares so he does miss on the playoffs (but not as badly as Kareem), team wins are a little shaky at 54 but again clearly better than Kareem's. Everything about his reign is better than Kareem's with the small caveat that half of it happened in the ABA. I would give the nod to Julius Erving for the 1974-1980 period. Failing that, I would settle for Kareem and just point out that his was by far the weakest reign: the Herbert Hoover of NBA rulers, so to speak.
.
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Other than Kareem's, no other reign can plausibly be altered. Wilt, Magic, Jordan, and Duncan were MVP champions in their first years and their predecessor never won MVP or FMVP again, that's a pretty clear line. Shaq's 1999 wasn't remarkable but Jordan was retired so when combined with his 00-02 run he's the clear choice. Similar story with LeBron's 2009, although he at least was MVP for a 66 win team so that's something.
1957-66 Bill Russell
1967-73 Wilt Chamberlain
1974-80 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1981-86 Larry Bird
1987-90 Magic Johnson
1991-98 Michael Jordan
99-2002 Shaquille O'Neal
2003-08 Tim Duncan
2009-?? LeBron James
LeBron's could already be over, but for now let's treat it as running through 2016. Here are some common trends for every reign:
-at least four years long.
-at least one MVP, two championships, and three Finals appearances except Kareem's, which has four one and two respectively.
-at least one Finals MVP (where eligible), except Kareem's which has zero.
-50% or better in years as All-NBA First and All-Star except Russell's and Wilt's, which were 30% and 29% in All-NBA 1st.
-67% or better in years as top five Win Shares (regular season and playoffs) except Duncan's (50% regular) and Kareem's (43% playoffs).
-at least 58 team wins per season (prorated for shorter seasons) except Kareem's which was 49(!!)
So Kareem's obviously sticks out in a lot of ways as not matching. He's clearly an all time great of the highest order, but his career has this weird fallow period in the middle that doesn't make a lot of sense. It's not just that he wasn't winning rings, it's that he wasn't anywhere close. He missed the playoffs two years in a row (75 Bucks and 76 Lakers) and was under .500 both times(!!!). Factor in the next three years and he won a total of two rounds over five years, an astonishingly poor performance unparalleled by any other reign.
The first thing I considered was changing the end points of his reign. I don't think we can go earlier, because that only helps if we go all the way back to the 1971 MVP FMVP Championship and all around OMG season. This would also get his reign three more All-NBA Firsts and another two MVPs (not that he needs them) and bring its team wins average up to 53... but that's still way below everyone else, and it would be even worse in playoffs top five Win Shares at 40%, and it leaves Wilt's as the only one with less than two championships. This last point compounds the larger concern that if Kareem was the greatest in 1972 and 1973, why was Wilt in the Finals? winning Finals MVP? setting a team wins record that would last 25 years? setting a win streak record that would last 40 years?
It also doesn't make any sense to go longer into the future for most of the same reasons. He doesn't get a Finals MVP until 85, and that was in the middle of Bird's great three year run of two FMVP and three MVP.
The second thing I considered was whether there was someone else to consider. Willis Reed gives you an MVP, two Finals MVPs, and three Finals from 1970-73, but then he plays 19 games in 74 and his career is over. He also only gets you the one All-NBA 1st, his Win Share and team wins performance is modest for this crowd. Moses Malone is promising with three MVPs and a Finals MVP from 79 to 83, but his team wins are even worse than Kareem's and his time period makes our problems worse: Kareem 74-78 has no rings, Moses going to 83 cramps Bird to a three year reign.
.
My feeling is that the real answer lies in the ABA. Julius Erving has two rings and two and a half MVPs from 74-76, then two more Finals in the NBA from 77-80. Five combined First Teams and seven All Stars, five and four for Win Shares so he does miss on the playoffs (but not as badly as Kareem), team wins are a little shaky at 54 but again clearly better than Kareem's. Everything about his reign is better than Kareem's with the small caveat that half of it happened in the ABA. I would give the nod to Julius Erving for the 1974-1980 period. Failing that, I would settle for Kareem and just point out that his was by far the weakest reign: the Herbert Hoover of NBA rulers, so to speak.
.
.
Other than Kareem's, no other reign can plausibly be altered. Wilt, Magic, Jordan, and Duncan were MVP champions in their first years and their predecessor never won MVP or FMVP again, that's a pretty clear line. Shaq's 1999 wasn't remarkable but Jordan was retired so when combined with his 00-02 run he's the clear choice. Similar story with LeBron's 2009, although he at least was MVP for a 66 win team so that's something.
