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Post by eric on Oct 10, 2016 13:58:09 GMT -6
Preseason and Summer League. 1. Andrew Bogut For the first time in three years I think we'll have a competitive ROY race. Bogut was a beast mode scorer in summer league and a decent scorer in preseason, strong rebounds in both, concerning shot blocking in both. Some TCs and SCs and he should be a stud for a long time, and software doesn't really care about shot blocking, so even if he's not the best rookie he has a strong chance at ROY. . 2. Raymond Felton  Ray's got some serious fumble fingers, but let's see you trying to play point guard in the sim NBA while sweating out thirty pounds of grease a night. The difference between his summer league and preseason comes down to 3P%, but he projects to be an above average efficiency scorer and very good rebounding point guard already. TC should bring his ast/tov ratio up and crank his 3P% even if he hits average returns. If he can get some dream TCs and some savvy investments, he could be the next great point guard. . 3. Danny Granger  Oh Danny Boy made summer league weep and has fantastic looking preseason percentages, but his three point ratio suggests the latter are a mirage. He doesn't have the shot blocking to play power forward, but his ceiling is a George Ackles type small forward, which is not too shabby. . 4. Francisco Garcia  Franky G doesn't do anything but score, but his size and rebounding at SG make him more than one dimensional. He was the opposite in summer league with elite shot blocking and poor scoring; in general, I'm leaning much more towards preseason than summer league. . 5. Ike Diogu  Didn't miss a single shot in preseason. A single shot, you understand this number? He's here because he blitzed summer league, but even there he blocked as many shots as Ray Felton so there are concerns especially at 6'8". My feeling is he'll turn out to be the next Manuel Gorden, sorry Canes. . 6. Andrew Bynum Had a solid all around game in both leagues, and if there's anything we should expect from Andrew Bynum it's steady, workmanlike, professional performance. Eerily took the #650 slot from previous Pacer big man Arvydas Sabonis. Needs help everywhere but isn't a disaster anywhere. . 7. Kelenna Azubuike  Mr. Irrelevant had great %s in summer, okay %s in preseason, and projects to be a bit below even that. But he's got fantastic boards for a shooting guard, so if he can approach good %s he'll be in great shape. . 8. Lou Williams  If this was preseason only Sweet Skip would be way higher, but his summer league was horrific. With his size Trofie has to hope he can pull off PG, and his scoring volume is also not really there, but I'm confident Willylou Harris can make it higher up the ladder if he gets the PT. . 9. Amir Johnson . 10. Hakim Warrick  We close with a couple d/r bigs. Amir is the better d/r man, but he shoots quite a bit more and they're both awful at it. I give the edge to Amir for his height, but either man could establish himself as the premier d/r guy going forward.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2016 14:04:31 GMT -6
Kelenna Azubuike too low
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Post by MistleTacoe on Oct 10, 2016 14:21:54 GMT -6
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Post by eric on Oct 14, 2016 9:26:35 GMT -6
day 30. 1. Chris Paul - LR unranked After taking the summer off CP3 shows he's more than NBA-ready, putting up great numbers across the board. Leads all rookies in pts/36, ratio says his already solid efficiency is going to come up, very good ast:tov, elite rebounding for a point guard, good looking defense. He does it all. Orlando may finally have found a franchise player to build around. . 2. Raymond Felton - LR #2 Felton has continued his excellent preseason numbers and while ratio has him coming down a little he'll still be an elite scorer. He also looks like a decent d/r man, but those turnovers, Kina Grannis have mercy. It'll take some serious investment and TCs for him to even get below three per 36, but luckily Handling grows very quickly for point guards. Finally there's a ray of hope in Atlanta. . 3. Danny Granger - LR #3 Danny's a solid all around guy. His %s aren't good but ratio pegs him at league average, which given his defense and rebounding makes for a great package. He's not elite at anything but he's not bad at anything, great base to grow from. . 4. Andrew Bynum- LR #6 By far and away the best shot blocker in this class. Solid rebounder. His scoring hurts you but it's not catastrophically bad, and his lead in shot blocking is just overwhelming. . 5. Francisco Garcia - LR #4 The Frisco Niño has combined his buckets from preseason with the d/r from summer league. He has a pretty significant turnover problem but he's still looking very very nice. He's the last rookie who's legitimately good so far, so pending roster moves I would be surprised to see anyone else break into the top five this year. . 6. Ryan Gomes - LR unranked Gomesy is an interesting case. His shot blocking and rebounding as a small forward would be outstanding, but since he's not on the DC it's hard to tell right now if that's where he's playing. Even if he's at power forward his rebounding leads all rookies and his scoring goes from a possible question mark to a solid plus, so he's got that going for him. We probably won't see enough minutes from him this year to know for sure, but I think of him as the sleeper of this class so far (insofar as a guy with B B scoring grades can be a sleeper). . 7. David Lee - LR unranked Lee matches his IRL self to the letter. Terrible defender, great rebounder, very good scorer. Unlike IRL big men almost can't help but get better at defense as they go along. He's starting so far behind that he'll never be an elite big but if he can get up to 2ish blocks a game his offense and rebounding will make him a very compelling two way player. . 8. Hakim Warrick - LR #10 Along with Bynum's 3.3, Warrick's 2.1 is the only blocks per 36 above two in this rookie class. It's bad. His rebounding isn't that great. His turnovers are a little high. But he barely shoots, and that's something you can't teach. If this is the kind of shot blocking we see going forward, guys like Hakim will be the new breed of d/r bigs, though whether that's good enough to play remains to be seen. . 9. Rashad McCants - LR unranked Rashad doesn't play defense or rebound, his turnovers are okay, his scoring has been middling so far... but ratio pegs him as being a league average scorer, and at the bottom of this ladder that's all it takes. Unlike the top five, I anticipate a lot of flux in the bottom five this year due to how middling everyone is. . 10. Kelenna Azubuike - LR #7 Out of respect for his very good preseason and summer league numbers, and with how putrid the rest of the class has been, but he needs to get some PT or he's out next update. . previously ranked Andrew Bogut - still a strong rebounder, but his scoring took a turn for the horrific and he still doesn't block much Ike Diogu - same Lou Williams - split the difference between his great preseason and poor summer league for mediocre scoring, but he isn't far off the bottom of the ladder Amir Johnson - shot blocking completely fell apart. Preseason teams must run a ton of inside offenses or something.
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Post by eric on Oct 18, 2016 9:36:06 GMT -6
day 60. 1. Chris Paul - LR #1 It's looking pretty well locked up. Ray's a more efficient scorer now and with regression, but it's not gonna matter. CP3's got more volume, better d/r, less turnovers, doesn't leave burrito wrappers on the court. If he had played before the regular season he probably would have been yet another coast to coast winner, he'll have to settle for dominating throughout the regular season. . 2. Raymond Felton - LR #2 Everyone Loves Projected Super Efficient Hawks Scorers. He'll probably go for the LLE in FA.  . 3. Ryan Gomes - LR #6 Gomesy is effectively on a five game hot streak, and it's not that hot. His d/r numbers are great in both pre and regular seasons assuming he's playing at SF, unfortunately we'll have to wait for the end of season pbp article to know for sure, and as before even if he's not he's leading the class in boards so he's got that going for him. My guess is that Jared Cunningham is getting the missing wing minutes, but there's not quite enough missing big minutes to cover all of Gomesy's. We'll see. . 4. Salim Stoudamire - LR unranked Another guy who didn't score well before the season but is lighting it up now. Has what looks like severe turnover issues and doesn't have the d/r, so his position is pretty precariously predicated on his perspicacious pscoring. Everyone else below him hit a big wall scoring wise though so he's here for now. . 5. Danny Granger - LR #3 Oh Danny Boy. He's still pegged to regress up but league average scoring is distant. He's good enough everywhere else to stay up for now but he's a long long way from his heady summer league numbers. . 6. Andrew Bynum - LR #4 Blocking dipped, scoring dipped precipitously. Still leading the class in blocks but he's getting a little Tristan Thompsony for my tastes. . 7. Lou Williams - LR unranked Sweet Lou is a poor man's CP3 across the board: solid efficiency instead of good, good ast:tov instead of great, okay d/r instead of great. Another solid sim and he'll wash the stink of summer league off, and if everyone else is still jerking around he's got a solid chance at the top five. Really good point guard class this year either way. . 8. Hakim Warrick - LR #8 Still an okay d/r big. . 9. David Lee - LR #7 Still an okay o/r big. . 10. Francisco Garcia - LR #5 Franny's %s fell off a cliff. He's still a very good d/r guy for a wing, and everyone below's %s fell off even more so he stays on. He could very easily get back to the 6-7 range but I doubt he'll crack the top five going forward. . previously ranked: Rashad McCants - scoring is his biggest strength and it fell off to below average Kelenna Azubuike - no PT
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Oct 18, 2016 10:08:08 GMT -6
How is Warrick ahead of Bogut?
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Post by KwYawnza on Oct 18, 2016 10:12:30 GMT -6
Eric's ideal ladder usage.  |
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Post by eric on Oct 18, 2016 10:20:39 GMT -6
How is Warrick ahead of Bogut? Bogut shoots too much with bad efficiency and is a worse defender |
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Oct 18, 2016 10:22:37 GMT -6
How is Warrick ahead of Bogut? Bogut shoots too much with bad efficiency and is a worse defender Im taking the bait. He is much more efficient than Warrick on O. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Oct 18, 2016 10:32:44 GMT -6
Eric, did you check out Channing Frye at all? He got a little bit of PT while Luther was out. He looked decent.
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Post by eric on Oct 18, 2016 10:38:35 GMT -6
Bogut shoots too much with bad efficiency and is a worse defender Im taking the bait. He is much more efficient than Warrick on O. He is much more efficient, but his efficiency is still bad, and Warrick takes less than half as many shots. Arithmetically: Bogut 15 tsa per game * .903 pts /tsa = 13.5 pts / game Warrick 6.4 tsa per game * .822 pts/tsa + 9.6 tsa per game taken by league average 1.06 pts /tsa = 15.4 pts / game 15.4 > 13.5 And that's just with league average perimeter guys. Throw him on a team with elite scoring guards like the Knicks and the disparity grows even more stark. This is the whole principle behind getting no shoot high block bigs. |
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Post by eric on Oct 18, 2016 10:42:45 GMT -6
Eric, did you check out Channing Frye at all? He got a little bit of PT while Luther was out. He looked decent. He definitely looks frisky. I did not consider him because I want to see more minutes though, we've had a number of bigs look good in limited minutes and then crash and burn this year (Amir Johnson, Ike Diogu). |
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Post by Odin on Oct 18, 2016 16:32:33 GMT -6
eric, which upgrades do you think will be best for salim? Im thinking stremgth, jumping, handles unless inside isnt too high but i suspect it is. Thoughts?
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Post by eric on Oct 18, 2016 18:25:43 GMT -6
eric, which upgrades do you think will be best for salim? Im thinking stremgth, jumping, handles unless inside isnt too high but i suspect it is. Thoughts? I always try Inside Scoring and Jump Shot first for scorers, because why take the chance? It doesn't cost anything to try. After that I would probably go Handling, Strength, Shot Blocking. |
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Trofie
Former GM 
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Post by Trofie on Oct 19, 2016 3:27:40 GMT -6
Eric , have you looked into Sean May? I think he's going to turn the corner soon and is poised for a breakout sophomore campaign.
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Post by eric on Oct 19, 2016 8:35:27 GMT -6
Eric , have you looked into Sean May? I think he's going to turn the corner soon and is poised for a breakout sophomore campaign. He's currently blocking less shots per minute than Deron Williams so it'd have to be one h#ck of a turn. I pull every rookie's stats every update though so if he does vault up I'll see it. |
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Post by eric on Oct 22, 2016 11:57:21 GMT -6
day 90. 1. Chris Paul - LR #1 Simply the best. . 2. Salim Stoudamire - LR #4 Has kept up the scoring. Doesn't have the volume but as always volume is easy to DC goose. Still has serious concerns with turnovers, defense, and rebounding, but elite at one thing makes up for iffy at a lot of others in a prospect. . 3. Raymond Felton - LR #2 Ray's scoring is dropping off a little. Better d/r guy than Salim but has just as many turnover issues. Still projects as a plus scorer, he'll be fine. . 4. Danny Granger - LR #5 Still solid across the board. . 5. Francisco Garcia - LR #10 The Garcion has bounced back in a big way. He's only narrowly ahead of league average scoring but he is ahead. Turnover issues, isn't a great defender. . 6. Andrew Bynum - LR #6 Still the best shot blocker. Still dipping on the efficiency end. . 7. Ryan Gomes - LR #3 On the basis of rate alone Ryansy should be way higher, but he's barely getting PT and we still don't know at what position. If Bynum keeps getting worse he'll get higher just by default, though. . 8. Channing Frye - LR unranked Some new blood at the bottom. Frye bizarrely is the second best defender of the bigs and is a poor scorer, but his volume is very low. His FT% could still come up but judging by his grade and the three ball I wouldn't count on it. . 9. Lou Williams - LR #7 Average scorer with turnover issues. I like him less than Garcia because of size/defense. . 10. Jarrett Jack - LR unranked Another new boy, pretty much the same guy as Lou except with less volume and a little more size. . previously ranked: Hakim Warrick - worse d/r man than Frye David Lee - didn't really get worse, the bottom junk just got slightly better Ike Diogu watch! He was actually the last man out. Still isn't blocking shots but has 18 pts and 12 reb per 36, and .96 efficiency is league average for a big. Not touching the summer league numbers obviously, but there are signs.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Oct 24, 2016 7:06:46 GMT -6
Channing Frye too low.
I kid, I kid.
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Post by eric on Oct 25, 2016 10:54:45 GMT -6
day 120 update. 1. Chris Paul - LR #1 To be the man you have to beat the man, and even with a major late season nosedive nobody came close to beating CP3. He's narrowly the best of a solid crop of scoring point guards, he's the only one without major turnover issues, he's the best at d/r, and his elite jump shot bodes very well for his future growth. Wire to wire ROY. . 2. Salim Stoudamire - LR #2 Memphis better start learning as-salamu alaykum because this guy can ball. His 3PR is high enough that the 3P% is sustainable, great jump shot, everything else needs work but it's a fine starting point. . 3. Francisco Garcia - LR #5 Reminds me a lot of a young Mario Elie. I think he's going to blossom into a great glue guy, but even if he plateaus as is he'd be a fine addition to any team. Nothing spectacular but doesn't hurt you. . 4. Danny Granger - LR #4 Danny's got a much higher ceiling than Franny but it's gonna take a lot for him to get there. His FT% is in the danger zone where it's not quite elite but you can't take it too much higher with camps, so he could use some lucky TCs there. Great scoring volume might just be a product of the DC, but I think the skill is there too, and if nothing else he's got a solid d/r base. . 5. Raymond Felton - LR #3 Ray Ray's scoring fell off towards the end of the season, almost like he had terrible conditioning and was starting to labor under the weight of some physical burden. He still projects as a quality scorer and rebounder, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't turn into a decent starter down the road. . 6. Ryan Gomes - LR #7 The man of mystery continues to impress in extremely limited minutes. I really have no idea how he's gonna end up, this isn't an Alredick Hughes situation. In terms of scenario he reminds me a lot of Adrian Branch, he's got a fascinating base that a GM could sculpt into a great player, or he could waste away into nothing. . 7. Ike Diogu- LR unranked Diogu lives! Went on a late season tear to catapult his scoring efficiency above 1, a very solid number for a big man. Unfortunately he needs it because his defense is horrific. Needs to knock a few TCs out of the park to become a great player, but with merely decent luck he could become a good one. . 8. Andrew Bynum - LR #6 His scoring, defense, and rebounding just kept getting worse as the season wore on. At his size, age, and potential though his prospects are reasonably bright. His scoring volume means he's going to need serious investment on the scoring side or it's gonna be requiescat in pace, Andreas. . 9. Channing Frye - LR #8 Ended up finishing only narrowly below Bynum in blocks, and is pretty clearly the more NBA ready player right now. With that said his volume is so low he'll really never be anything more than a d/r big, but there are way worse things than that. . 10. Lou Williams - LR #9 There isn't really a tenth best rookie in this class, Lou's just the least bad of the remaining options. He's getting 20 per 36 on okay efficiency.  . Rest of lotto: 2. Marvin Williams - very bad scorer, 3PR says he should be even worse, not a great defender. Would be really interesting if he was SG eligible, but he's not, so he just needs a lot of work. 4. Deron Williams - even worse than Marvin and has a weak Jump Shot. Turnovers aren't terrible but aren't a strength, in fact his only strength is that he's a good rebounder for PG. 6. Andrew Bogut - best rebounder in class but can't defend or score, and shoots way too much to be a d/r guy. 7. Charlie Villanueva - a worse version of Bogut 9. Martell Webster - bad right now, but has a shot at being good. Strong rebounds, jump shot, and three shot. 10. Monta Ellis - isn't as bad as his 27% 3P% suggests, but isn't a whole heck of a lot better. Turnover troubles. Great rebounder though. 11. Gerald Green - similar to Monta, but a lot closer to being a respectable scorer... but still not good. 13. Rashad McCants - made a couple appearances on the ladder and you could argue should take Lou's spot but you'd be wrong, and #10 in this class is barely a compliment anyway. Should at least be a decent backup down the road.
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Post by MistleTacoe on Oct 25, 2016 16:05:44 GMT -6
Really happy with Garcia. Middle of a the 2nd round pick and ends up in Eric's top 3
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