Post by eric on Oct 12, 2016 10:53:14 GMT -6
Proposed by FectaDEEZ and Lazy Pete, I went back through the archives and tabulated all drafts by their IRL year except the creation draft. I decided to do this with Win Shares even though those records only go back to 3010. As we all know end of season awards can get pretty sketchy, plus in that early era of the league it would be sharply skewed towards those decades to have draft classes at all; for example, the 1950s didn't have a draft until 3008, so they could not possibly have a player win All-NBA until after that.
First of all, let's look at how the classes break down by decade:
1950s - 3022, 3016, 3021, 3034, 3008
1970s - 3001, 3003, 3036
1980s - 3029, 3018, 3033, 3009, 3004, 3037, 3024, 3010, 3015
1990s - 3007, 3023, 3032, 3030, 3002, 3019, 3012, 3028
2000s - 3014, 3035, 3006, 3039, 3020, 3011, 3026, 3017
2010s - 3005, 3025, 3038, 3031, 3027, 3013
Immediately we see that the 1970s are at a comical disadvantage and we should probably just ignore that decade entirely. The players are either too old to be recorded or too young to have done anything yet, and there are much less of them than any other decade.
Everyone else is reasonably up for grabs though, so let's start measuring. There have been 1006 player-seasons with at least ten Win Shares, and they break down as follows:
1950s - 22.2 per year (111 total from 25 players); Selvy, Chitwood, Oscar with ten+
1980s - 16.2 per year (146 total from 33 players); Tobi, Alvin, Barkley, Bossert with ten+
1990s - 34.6 per year (277 total from 56 players); Shareef, Ackles, Dump, Jermaine, Garnett, Brooks, Larry Johnson with ten+
2000s - 18.8 per year (150 total from 37 players); Blair, Conley, Emeka, Curry with ten+
2010s - 35.0 per year (210 total from 37 players); Myles, Bledsoe, Monroe, Kristaps, Kyrie, Harrison, Knight, Butler, Lance with ten+
The 80s do have a couple recent classes (33 and 37) but it's hard to imagine anyone but Ewing joining these lists from them. They also probably missed a bunch of years from Barkley, Alvin Robertson, and Godbolt, but even if we gave them another eighteen years that would only bring their average up to 18.2. Mainly the 80s have just stunk.
The 90s meanwhile are probably slightly better than they look in this analysis. They've still got a lot of years left for the super 3032 class, and they missed out on a ton of Khalid Reeves years from him being drafted in 3002.
Then the 2000s just stink again, but not as badly as the 80s. Their earliest class was 3006 so they've got no real recourse to pre-WS years outside of a couple Emekas, they have two recent classes and while 3035 is a disaster 3039 has literally not played a full season yet, so to be fair their denominator should really be seven which brings their average up to 21.4 - not good by any means but not as woeful as the 80s.
And the 2010s continue the pattern by probably being slightly better than they look. Monroe, Lance, and Bledsoe lost years by being drafted in 3005, the 3038 class doesn't look terribly deep but at least they've got Lillard, and while 3031 peaked in high school they've got an outside chance at adding a year or two.
The 50s have 3008 and 3034, my guess is they'd be right about in the same spot when all's said and done.
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Another way of looking at this is to divide up the top 300 player-seasons of Win Shares, but we get very much the same results. The 90s have thirteen per draft, the 10s have twelve, nobody else has more than five. The 90s have eight players with six or more seasons, the 10s have six, everyone else combined has five.
.
.
Bottom line, the 90s and 10s are awesome, the 00s and 50s are okay, the 80s are terrible, the 70s are mostly unknown but probably bad overall with probably the greatest player of all time.
First of all, let's look at how the classes break down by decade:
1950s - 3022, 3016, 3021, 3034, 3008
1970s - 3001, 3003, 3036
1980s - 3029, 3018, 3033, 3009, 3004, 3037, 3024, 3010, 3015
1990s - 3007, 3023, 3032, 3030, 3002, 3019, 3012, 3028
2000s - 3014, 3035, 3006, 3039, 3020, 3011, 3026, 3017
2010s - 3005, 3025, 3038, 3031, 3027, 3013
Immediately we see that the 1970s are at a comical disadvantage and we should probably just ignore that decade entirely. The players are either too old to be recorded or too young to have done anything yet, and there are much less of them than any other decade.
Everyone else is reasonably up for grabs though, so let's start measuring. There have been 1006 player-seasons with at least ten Win Shares, and they break down as follows:
1950s - 22.2 per year (111 total from 25 players); Selvy, Chitwood, Oscar with ten+
1980s - 16.2 per year (146 total from 33 players); Tobi, Alvin, Barkley, Bossert with ten+
1990s - 34.6 per year (277 total from 56 players); Shareef, Ackles, Dump, Jermaine, Garnett, Brooks, Larry Johnson with ten+
2000s - 18.8 per year (150 total from 37 players); Blair, Conley, Emeka, Curry with ten+
2010s - 35.0 per year (210 total from 37 players); Myles, Bledsoe, Monroe, Kristaps, Kyrie, Harrison, Knight, Butler, Lance with ten+
The 80s do have a couple recent classes (33 and 37) but it's hard to imagine anyone but Ewing joining these lists from them. They also probably missed a bunch of years from Barkley, Alvin Robertson, and Godbolt, but even if we gave them another eighteen years that would only bring their average up to 18.2. Mainly the 80s have just stunk.
The 90s meanwhile are probably slightly better than they look in this analysis. They've still got a lot of years left for the super 3032 class, and they missed out on a ton of Khalid Reeves years from him being drafted in 3002.
Then the 2000s just stink again, but not as badly as the 80s. Their earliest class was 3006 so they've got no real recourse to pre-WS years outside of a couple Emekas, they have two recent classes and while 3035 is a disaster 3039 has literally not played a full season yet, so to be fair their denominator should really be seven which brings their average up to 21.4 - not good by any means but not as woeful as the 80s.
And the 2010s continue the pattern by probably being slightly better than they look. Monroe, Lance, and Bledsoe lost years by being drafted in 3005, the 3038 class doesn't look terribly deep but at least they've got Lillard, and while 3031 peaked in high school they've got an outside chance at adding a year or two.
The 50s have 3008 and 3034, my guess is they'd be right about in the same spot when all's said and done.
.
Another way of looking at this is to divide up the top 300 player-seasons of Win Shares, but we get very much the same results. The 90s have thirteen per draft, the 10s have twelve, nobody else has more than five. The 90s have eight players with six or more seasons, the 10s have six, everyone else combined has five.
.
.
Bottom line, the 90s and 10s are awesome, the 00s and 50s are okay, the 80s are terrible, the 70s are mostly unknown but probably bad overall with probably the greatest player of all time.
