Projected Standings (4,007 views)

[eric]

Quick overview of the process: I go through every team's remaining schedule and give them a % chance of winning each game based on the current win% of each team.

3039 day 25

East
W L Team
70 12 Toronto Raptors
63 19 New Jersey Nets
57 25 New York Knicks
55 27 Cleveland Cavaliers
54 28 Washington Bullets
53 29 Boston Celtics
52 30 Memphis Bobcats
49 33 Miami Heat
---- ---- ----
32 50 Milwaukee Bucks
30 52 Chicago Bulls
27 55 Indiana Pacers
20 62 Orlando Magic
14 68 Charlotte Hornets
14 68 Philadelphia 76ers
6 76 Atlanta Hawks

West
W L Team
68 14 Los Angeles Lakers
66 16 Houston Rockets
60 22 San Antonio Spurs
57 25 Portland Trailblazers
53 29 Phoenix Suns
48 34 Oklahoma City Thunder
45 37 Denver Nuggets
42 40 Seattle SuperSonics
---- ---- ----
36 46 Vancouver Grizzlies
31 51 Utah Jazz
31 51 Kansas City Kings
26 56 Los Angeles Clippers
21 61 Golden State Warriors
10 72 Minnesota Timberwolves

[Odin]

why do you like to hurt me?

[Deleted]

The window is shut

[SugarShaun]

Oct 13, 2016 8:48:29 GMT -6 eric said:

Quick overview of the process: I go through every team's remaining schedule and give them a % chance of winning each game based on the current win% of each team.

3039 day 25

East
W L Team
70 12 Toronto Raptors
63 19 New Jersey Nets
57 25 New York Knicks
55 27 Cleveland Cavaliers
54 28 Washington Bullets
53 29 Boston Celtics
52 30 Memphis Bobcats
49 33 Miami Heat
---- ---- ----
32 50 Milwaukee Bucks
30 52 Chicago Bulls
27 55 Indiana Pacers
20 62 Orlando Magic
14 68 Charlotte Hornets
14 68 Philadelphia 76ers
6 76 Atlanta Hawks

West
W L Team
68 14 Los Angeles Lakers
66 16 Houston Rockets
60 22 San Antonio Spurs
57 25 Portland Trailblazers
53 29 Phoenix Suns
48 34 Oklahoma City Thunder
45 37 Denver Nuggets
42 40 Seattle SuperSonics
---- ---- ----
36 46 Vancouver Grizzlies
31 51 Utah Jazz
31 51 Kansas City Kings
26 56 Los Angeles Clippers
21 61 Golden State Warriors
10 72 Minnesota Timberwolves

Eric is projecting that not only will 3 Central teams be in the playoffs but that none of them will play each other round 1 

[20s Navidad]

Should do it based on current point differential not current winning % am I right? Or even better current expected winning pct? Get that luck out of there.

[eric]

Oct 13, 2016 10:32:38 GMT -6 20s Navidad said:

Should do it based on current point differential not current winning % am I right? Or even better current expected winning pct? Get that luck out of there.

the most accurate way would be to use current margin of victory and its standard deviation, but this way is easier

[eric]

on 20s Navidad's recommendation i'm now comparing expected win%s to determine winners of each future matchup
it should also be noted that i'm not checking tiebreakers because technically there are no ties in this model
for example the Heat are projected to win 57.98 games and the Celtics 57.62, so the Heat get the higher seed

3039 day 45

East
W L Team
67 15 Toronto Raptors
63 19 New Jersey Nets
59 23 Memphis Bobcats
58 24 Miami Heat
58 24 Boston Celtics
50 32 Cleveland Cavaliers
47 35 Washington Bullets
46 36 New York Knicks
---- ---- ----
34 48 Chicago Bulls
30 52 Milwaukee Bucks
29 53 Indiana Pacers
25 57 Orlando Magic
14 68 Charlotte Hornets
11 71 Atlanta Hawks
10 72 Philadelphia 76ers

West
W L Team
61 21 Houston Rockets
58 24 Portland Trailblazers
57 25 Los Angeles Lakers
54 28 San Antonio Spurs
52 30 Oklahoma City Thunder
49 33 Phoenix Suns
46 36 Seattle SuperSonics
43 39 Denver Nuggets
---- ---- ----
38 44 Vancouver Grizzlies
34 48 Kansas City Kings
33 49 Utah Jazz
29 53 Los Angeles Clippers
16 66 Golden State Warriors
11 71 Minnesota Timberwolves

[Deleted]

Yes I would like to play the Heat

[IanBoyd]

team fucking sucks

[Lazy Pete]

Will be interested to see how much my projection varies on the next update. My schedule gets a bit tougher starting with this next sim.

[KwYawnza]

Everything is coming up Milhouse baby

[eric]

3039 day 75

East
W L Team
65 17 Toronto Raptors
62 20 Boston Celtics
59 23 New Jersey Nets
58 24 Memphis Bobcats
57 25 Cleveland Cavaliers
57 25 Miami Heat
53 29 Washington Bullets
47 35 New York Knicks
---- ---- ----
34 48 Chicago Bulls
28 54 Indiana Pacers
24 58 Orlando Magic
24 58 Milwaukee Bucks
15 67 Charlotte Hornets
14 68 Atlanta Hawks
8 74 Philadelphia 76ers

West
W L Team
62 20 Houston Rockets
58 24 Portland Trailblazers
59 23 San Antonio Spurs
56 26 Los Angeles Lakers
55 27 Phoenix Suns
49 33 Oklahoma City Thunder
45 37 Seattle SuperSonics
41 41 Vancouver Grizzlies
---- ---- ----
39 43 Denver Nuggets
32 50 Kansas City Kings
32 50 Utah Jazz
30 52 Los Angeles Clippers
14 68 Golden State Warriors
12 70 Minnesota Timberwolves

[eric]

3039 day 99

East
W L Team
65 17 Toronto Raptors
63 19 Boston Celtics
62 20 New Jersey Nets
60 22 Cleveland Cavaliers
59 23 Miami Heat
58 24 Memphis Bobcats
53 29 Washington Bullets
47 35 New York Knicks
---- ---- ----
33 49 Chicago Bulls
23 59 Indiana Pacers
23 59 Orlando Magic
21 61 Milwaukee Bucks
18 64 Atlanta Hawks
15 67 Charlotte Hornets
7 75 Philadelphia 76ers

West
W L Team
65 17 Houston Rockets
58 24 Los Angeles Lakers
58 24 Portland Trailblazers
56 26 Phoenix Suns
55 27 San Antonio Spurs
49 33 Oklahoma City Thunder
42 40 Denver Nuggets
39 43 Seattle SuperSonics
---- ---- ----
38 44 Vancouver Grizzlies
38 44 Kansas City Kings
30 52 Utah Jazz
27 55 Los Angeles Clippers
14 68 Golden State Warriors
14 68 Minnesota Timberwolves

[Citizen Cane]

heat too low

[IanBoyd]

don't get how im still projected to finish ahead of the blazers, I think i play a tougher remaining schedule than them

[eric]

Oct 23, 2016 12:47:06 GMT -6 IanBoyd said:

don't get how im still projected to finish ahead of the blazers, I think i play a tougher remaining schedule than them

avg win% for remaining schedule for you is .482, for trailblazers is .592. Also I just realized I'm still using actual win% for opponent instead of expected, when I change that the numbers go to .468 and .594 respectively so you're even slightly better off, though obviously a 1 game lead over a 20 day sample is far from guaranteed.

[gbgalla24]

Thunder may slide down to the 7 seed after losing Lillard.

[eric]

I go through every team's remaining schedule and give them a % chance of winning each game based on the current expected win% of each team.

3040 day 25

East
W L Team
70 12 Boston Celtics
64 18 Cleveland Cavaliers
66 16 New Jersey Nets
58 24 New York Knicks
56 26 Washington Bullets
49 33 Memphis Bobcats
45 37 Toronto Raptors
29 53 Charlotte Hornets
---- ---- ----
27 55 Chicago Bulls
26 56 Indiana Pacers
25 57 Miami Heat
24 58 Milwaukee Bucks
22 60 Orlando Magic
18 64 Atlanta Hawks
11 71 Philadelphia 76ers

West
W L Team
60 22 Phoenix Suns
55 27 Houston Rockets
52 30 Utah Jazz
51 31 San Antonio Spurs
51 31 Oklahoma City Thunder
50 32 Los Angeles Lakers
50 32 Portland Trailblazers
47 35 Denver Nuggets
---- ---- ----
41 41 Seattle SuperSonics
36 46 Los Angeles Clippers
31 51 Vancouver Grizzlies
30 52 Golden State Warriors
29 53 Kansas City Kings
14 68 Minnesota Timberwolves

[Lazy Pete]

Lol at the 8 seed in the east

[MistleTacoe]

Mother of god the East is trash

[Deleted]

70 wins? Is such a thing even possible...

[Deleted]

Nov 3, 2016 12:51:52 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Mother of god the East is trash

Dump Dynasty has killed a bunch of teams

[eric]

Nov 3, 2016 13:17:41 GMT -6 @dumptime said:

Nov 3, 2016 12:51:52 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Mother of god the East is trash

Dump Dynasty has killed a bunch of teams

#TaggingAndBagging

[IanBoyd]

would a 29 win 8th seed be the shittiest playoff team in tmbsl history?

[eric]

3040 day 45

East
W L Team
66 16 Boston Celtics
60 22 Cleveland Cavaliers
60 22 New Jersey Nets
60 22 New York Knicks
55 27 Washington Bullets
54 28 Toronto Raptors
46 36 Memphis Bobcats
36 46 Chicago Bulls
---- ---- ----
34 48 Indiana Pacers
26 56 Miami Heat
25 57 Milwaukee Bucks
23 59 Charlotte Hornets
23 59 Atlanta Hawks
19 63 Orlando Magic
9 73 Philadelphia 76ers

West
W L Team
60 22 Phoenix Suns
59 23 San Antonio Spurs
58 24 Houston Rockets
54 28 Portland Trailblazers
53 29 Oklahoma City Thunder
52 30 Los Angeles Lakers
48 34 Utah Jazz
40 42 Vancouver Grizzlies
---- ---- ----
35 47 Seattle SuperSonics
34 48 Los Angeles Clippers
34 48 Denver Nuggets
30 52 Kansas City Kings
21 61 Golden State Warriors
14 68 Minnesota Timberwolves

[MistleTacoe]

Right where I want the Warriors to be. Fucking love it.

[eric]

3040 day 75

East
W L Team
67 15 Boston Celtics
60 22 Cleveland Cavaliers
59 23 New York Knicks
58 24 New Jersey Nets
53 29 Toronto Raptors
51 31 Washington Bullets
50 32 Memphis Bobcats
40 42 Chicago Bulls
---- ---- ----
33 49 Miami Heat
32 50 Indiana Pacers
28 54 Atlanta Hawks
22 60 Orlando Magic
22 60 Milwaukee Bucks
21 61 Charlotte Hornets
6 76 Philadelphia 76ers

West
W L Team
63 19 Portland Trailblazers
61 21 Houston Rockets
57 25 San Antonio Spurs
57 25 Los Angeles Lakers
54 28 Oklahoma City Thunder
53 29 Phoenix Suns
43 39 Vancouver Grizzlies
37 45 Seattle SuperSonics
---- ---- ----
36 46 Utah Jazz
34 48 Los Angeles Clippers
31 51 Kansas City Kings
28 54 Denver Nuggets
21 61 Golden State Warriors
14 68 Minnesota Timberwolves

[MistleTacoe]

I would be the happiest camper if I got the number 3/4 odds

[IanBoyd]

so I'm projected to win 2 less games than last year while the 6ers currently only has 2 wins.

Prince worth only 2 winshares confirmed.

[Deleted]

I just want to play the cRaptors in the playoffs