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Post by MistleTacoe on Jan 6, 2017 10:17:46 GMT -6
Projected standings assumed Joe Johnson would continue to play lmao
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Post by eric on Jan 6, 2017 10:59:28 GMT -6
 A regression of the past three years of projections graphing 1 / root mean square error against day of projection. Here's the data: year day rmse 1/rmse
3040 25 8.5096 0.1175
3040 45 5.5055 0.1816
3040 75 2.7916 0.3582
3040 99 1.6713 0.5984
3041 30 6.7262 0.1487
3041 45 4.8530 0.2061
3041 75 2.5596 0.3907
3041 99 1.6505 0.6059
3041 110 1.4622 0.6839
3042 25 5.1193 0.1953
3042 45 3.2324 0.3094
3042 75 2.9066 0.3440
3042 99 2.0511 0.4875
3042 110 1.2731 0.7855What it means is that your record on day 120 will probably be within 3 games of your projection on day 75 barring injury/trade/etc. For example, this year there were only six teams (out of twenty nine) that finished 4 or more games away, and four of those were exactly 4 games off. |
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Post by eric on Jan 22, 2017 17:27:55 GMT -6
3043 day 25
spread sheet is skeptical of basically every top team
and LOVES the fighting ralshermans
East
W L Team
64 18 New York Knicks
63 19 Indiana Pacers
61 21 New Jersey Nets
53 29 Philadelphia 76ers
52 30 Charlotte Hornets
49 33 Cleveland Cavaliers
48 34 Washington Bullets
48 34 Memphis Bobcats
---- ---- ----
38 44 Chicago Bulls
37 45 Orlando Magic
35 47 Milwaukee Bucks
23 59 Atlanta Hawks
20 62 Boston Celtics
9 73 Miami Heat
7 75 Toronto Raptors
West
W L Team
68 14 Utah Jazz
60 22 Seattle SuperSonics
60 22 Minnesota Timberwolves
57 25 Los Angeles Clippers
50 32 Oklahoma City Thunder
48 34 Houston Rockets
47 35 Golden State Warriors
47 35 Portland Trailblazers
---- ---- ----
35 47 Phoenix Suns
32 50 Kansas City Kings
24 58 Vancouver Grizzlies
23 59 Denver Nuggets
22 60 San Antonio Spurs
9 73 Los Angeles Lakers
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2017 20:24:46 GMT -6
20 wins? Boooo
4th odds? I can live with that
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Post by SPL on Jan 22, 2017 21:17:43 GMT -6
I can live with 68 wins
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Post by Delap on Jan 23, 2017 13:50:51 GMT -6
Portland at 47?  |
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Post by Odin on Jan 23, 2017 16:22:27 GMT -6
We at the Bobcats appreciate your support
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Post by eric on Jan 25, 2017 13:36:16 GMT -6
3043 day 45
spread sheet remains skeptical of the top teams
atlantic still predicted to have three 60 win teams
rest of league combined? one
and spread sheet doesn't even know how New Jersey has pau-ered up with a recent trade
East
W L Team
65 17 New York Knicks
54 28 Cleveland Cavaliers
61 21 Philadelphia 76ers
60 22 New Jersey Nets
52 30 Charlotte Hornets
52 30 Indiana Pacers
48 34 Washington Bullets
44 38 Memphis Bobcats
---- ---- ----
36 46 Chicago Bulls
36 46 Orlando Magic
36 46 Milwaukee Bucks
30 52 Atlanta Hawks
18 64 Boston Celtics
9 73 Miami Heat
7 75 Toronto Raptors
West
W L Team
60 22 Utah Jazz
58 24 Portland Trailblazers
58 24 Minnesota Timberwolves
57 25 Seattle SuperSonics
51 31 Oklahoma City Thunder
48 34 Los Angeles Clippers
47 35 Houston Rockets
46 36 Golden State Warriors
---- ---- ----
40 42 Phoenix Suns
39 43 Kansas City Kings
34 48 Vancouver Grizzlies
20 62 Denver Nuggets
16 66 San Antonio Spurs
7 75 Los Angeles Lakers
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Post by MJ on Jan 25, 2017 13:56:05 GMT -6
NOT GOOD BOB
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Post by eric on Jan 29, 2017 12:10:33 GMT -6
3043 day 75
East
W L Team
66 16 New York Knicks
58 24 Cleveland Cavaliers
65 17 Philadelphia 76ers
57 25 New Jersey Nets
56 26 Indiana Pacers
53 29 Charlotte Hornets
49 33 Washington Bullets
42 40 Memphis Bobcats
---- ---- ----
38 44 Milwaukee Bucks
34 48 Chicago Bulls
34 48 Orlando Magic
34 48 Atlanta Hawks
17 65 Boston Celtics
9 73 Miami Heat
7 75 Toronto Raptors
West
W L Team
58 24 Portland Trailblazers
55 27 Utah Jazz
58 24 Seattle SuperSonics
52 30 Minnesota Timberwolves
50 32 Los Angeles Clippers
48 34 Golden State Warriors
46 36 Houston Rockets
46 36 Oklahoma City Thunder
---- ---- ----
44 38 Phoenix Suns
42 40 Kansas City Kings
29 53 Vancouver Grizzlies
20 62 Denver Nuggets
18 64 San Antonio Spurs
6 76 Los Angeles Lakers
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jan 29, 2017 12:19:40 GMT -6
*cue Ian furiously masterbaiting*
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Post by SugarShaun on Jan 29, 2017 13:44:02 GMT -6
Still on pace for Atlantic vs Central first round.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2017 21:17:05 GMT -6
Still top 4 odds!
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Post by MistleTacoe on Jan 30, 2017 9:52:46 GMT -6
Really don't wanna face the Sonics in the first round....would much rather play the Wolves or the Clippers
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Post by MJ on Jan 30, 2017 12:06:07 GMT -6
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Post by eric on Feb 2, 2017 9:41:09 GMT -6
3043 day 99
spread sheet only sees one team being more than a win away from their brute projection - the Knicks
spread sheet sees Bucks pipping the Magic at the post, otherwise no significant movement
spread sheet has raptors with 6 and lakers with 6, but that's rounded
spread sheet has raptors with 5.9 and lakers with 5.8
spread sheet thinks this is still anybody's ball game
East
W L Team
67 15 New York Knicks
58 24 Indiana Pacers
66 16 Philadelphia 76ers
56 26 Charlotte Hornets
55 27 New Jersey Nets
54 28 Cleveland Cavaliers
50 32 Washington Bullets
40 42 Milwaukee Bucks
---- ---- ----
40 42 Orlando Magic
39 43 Memphis Bobcats
37 45 Atlanta Hawks
36 46 Chicago Bulls
15 67 Boston Celtics
10 72 Miami Heat
6 76 Toronto Raptors
West
W L Team
62 20 Portland Trailblazers
55 27 Utah Jazz
58 24 Seattle SuperSonics
47 35 Los Angeles Clippers
47 35 Golden State Warriors
46 36 Phoenix Suns
45 37 Oklahoma City Thunder
45 37 Minnesota Timberwolves
---- ---- ----
42 40 Houston Rockets
40 42 Kansas City Kings
30 52 Vancouver Grizzlies
19 63 San Antonio Spurs
19 63 Denver Nuggets
6 76 Los Angeles Lakers
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Post by Lazy Pete on Feb 2, 2017 9:52:43 GMT -6
3043 season recap:  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2017 11:54:47 GMT -6
Seem locked into that 1.4 spot :(
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Post by MistleTacoe on Feb 2, 2017 14:03:14 GMT -6
Happy with a 5 seed but would love to get a little lucky and snag the home court advantage
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Post by Delap on Feb 2, 2017 15:43:49 GMT -6
is that a sub-500 team I see making the playoffs in the East?
LOL
Bestern Conference doesn't play that way.
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Post by eric on Feb 2, 2017 16:24:06 GMT -6
is that a sub-500 team I see making the playoffs in the East? LOL Bestern Conference doesn't play that way. seven to three 50 win teams in favor of the East two to one 60 win teams you can focus on the eight seed if you want it's a matter of public record that james dolan has never even uttered the words "eight seed" before this post bigly |
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Post by Odin on Feb 2, 2017 20:45:29 GMT -6
move this shit elsewhere so it isn't constantly being bumped over shit that actually matters
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Post by Lazy Pete on Feb 2, 2017 21:17:49 GMT -6
move this shit elsewhere so it isn't constantly being bumped over shit that actually matters 20s' thread was an announcement  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2017 2:22:46 GMT -6
move this shit elsewhere so it isn't constantly being bumped over shit that actually matters Quit being lazy |
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Post by Odin on Feb 3, 2017 9:51:38 GMT -6
move this shit elsewhere so it isn't constantly being bumped over shit that actually matters 20s' thread was an announcement if i don't open any boards there's no way to see it. which i never do. generally when important league shit is happenining there's a really annoying notification i have to clear but didn't fucking get one that time. this thread does not belong in this board |
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Post by Odin on Feb 3, 2017 9:53:23 GMT -6
move this shit elsewhere so it isn't constantly being bumped over shit that actually matters Quit being lazy none of this is me being lazy. this is me being upset with league announcements being hidden behind a pointless projections thread that is about as accurate as his rookie ladder. i'll give him credit though, at least the ladder is in the right board. |
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Post by eric on Feb 3, 2017 11:36:06 GMT -6
20s' thread was an announcement if i don't open any boards there's no way to see it. which i never do. generally when important league shit is happenining there's a really annoying notification i have to clear but didn't fucking get one that time. this thread does not belong in this board where does it belong? |
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Post by eric on Feb 16, 2017 12:31:40 GMT -6
3044 day 25
spread sheet is a big believer in the sonics and t'wol'es
sees the Jazz as a 70 win team even with the mov regression oh wow
and the Atlantic has every other 59+ win team oh wow completely expected
East
W L Team
64 18 New York Knicks
54 28 Charlotte Hornets
63 19 Philadelphia 76ers
59 23 New Jersey Nets
51 31 Chicago Bulls
47 35 Atlanta Hawks
47 35 Milwaukee Bucks
46 36 Cleveland Cavaliers
---- ---- ----
39 43 Indiana Pacers
38 44 Orlando Magic
27 55 Boston Celtics
20 62 Miami Heat
15 67 Memphis Bobcats
11 71 Washington Bullets
8 74 Toronto Raptors
West
W L Team
70 12 Utah Jazz
56 26 Golden State Warriors
57 25 Kansas City Kings
53 29 Houston Rockets
51 31 Portland Trailblazers
51 31 Seattle SuperSonics
50 32 Oklahoma City Thunder
49 33 Los Angeles Clippers
---- ---- ----
45 37 Minnesota Timberwolves
30 52 Vancouver Grizzlies
30 52 San Antonio Spurs
26 56 Phoenix Suns
20 62 Denver Nuggets
10 72 Los Angeles Lakers
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Post by Delap on Feb 16, 2017 12:33:28 GMT -6
wow.... somebody loves me!
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IanBoyd
Former GM 
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Likes: 687
Dump Bucks: 8,575
Joined: April 2014
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Post by IanBoyd on Feb 16, 2017 12:34:56 GMT -6
I could live with this if I don't drop more than 2 in lotto
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