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Post by Lazy Pete on Dec 27, 2016 11:58:30 GMT -6
Pure analytics aside, I'd say it's Westbrook's to lose unless his production takes a serious dip or the Thunder wind up in the 7-8 range. I know there's a ton of precedent suggesting that it's got to be a player from the top 2 seeds but the storyline of the KD/Westbrook split plus the likelihood of a season-long flirtation w/ averaging a triple double is powerful enough to buck precedent.
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Post by eric on Dec 27, 2016 14:09:47 GMT -6
Pure analytics aside, I'd say it's Westbrook's to lose unless his production takes a serious dip or the Thunder wind up in the 7-8 range. I know there's a ton of precedent suggesting that it's got to be a player from the top 2 seeds but the storyline of the KD/Westbrook split plus the likelihood of a season-long flirtation w/ averaging a triple double is powerful enough to buck precedent. What I keep thinking about is Magic's 1982 season, where he finished with 19 9.6 and 9.5 on the #1 seeded Lakers and didn't receive a single first place MVP vote. And it wasn't like the actual MVP was any great shakes, Moses Malone was on a six seed. There were certainly other factors involved, the 81 choke job, getting his coach fired, etc., but he came right back the next year after winning FMVP and put up 17, 8.6 and 10.5 on another #1 seed only to get a whopping two first place votes. I think that when the rubber meets the road a triple double is viewed more as an oddity than a true MVP case. |
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Post by eric on Jan 6, 2017 20:39:05 GMT -6
Watching the Bucks reminds me a lot of the Thunder. They're so young, so long, so athletic, and I don't know if it's a coaching thing or a player thing but they have no feel on offense. They'll do a little haphazard motion and then there's always a pause, even if the motion has gotten them a good mismatch or an opening to exploit - and it's not like they're trying to keep the motion going, they laser in on for example Greg Monroe posting up but just can't make the pass. One time tonight they made the entry pass with 2 seconds left on the shot clock. What's he supposed to do with that?
I assume Delly coming back will help the ball distribution (and replacing Snell with Middleton will help everything) (everywhere) but still too many possessions end with "Giannis or Jabari, iso and do something amazing." That's a decent look in the rough and tumble regular season but it's gonna dry up in the postseason. Add on that Jabari is no Harden and I expect the Bucks to underachieve until they install a real offense. Maybe that comes with continuity, maybe they need the traditional superstar coaching change, maybe it never happens for them. We'll see!
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Post by eric on Jan 6, 2017 20:42:20 GMT -6
although in the Bucks defense, they at least stand behind the three point line when they're spotting up on offense, nobody's pulling a Wiggins out there
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Post by MistleTacoe on Jan 9, 2017 8:50:48 GMT -6
It's amazing how bad the T-Wolves are with the talent on their team + coach when you look at a team like the Bucks.
I feel like the T-wolves should move Rubio. That guy isn't really improving. Is he even a top 15 pg in the league?
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Post by eric on Jan 9, 2017 10:18:59 GMT -6
It's amazing how bad the T-Wolves are with the talent on their team + coach when you look at a team like the Bucks. I feel like the T-wolves should move Rubio. That guy isn't really improving. Is he even a top 15 pg in the league? Rubio in the past has had three elite NBA skills: penetration, passing, and defense. This makes him a great fit for a team that is otherwise definitely lacking in passing and probably lacking in perimeter defense. The times I've seen him this year it's looked like he's lost a step, which is a problem for skill #1 (which makes skill #2 much less relevant) and a catastrophe for skill #3. With all that said, I don't think you're getting anything back for Rubio. He's got three years left on his contract at about $14m each. If he has worn down (remember this is his twelfth professional year) then that's three years of dead money. If it's just a nagging injury thing, he's still an awkward fit - he's basically Rajon Rondo but not a jerk. Better to keep him and at least benefit from the continuity. If you're gonna make a move the move to me is Wiggins. Speaking of guys not improving, he's taken a huge step back this year: lower PER on higher USG, lower WS/48, lower (and negative) WP/48, lower (and even more negative) RPM, negative on/off. His jump shooting has improved dramatically and is still only .88 points per long jumper, a brutal mark submarined by him taking a career high percentage of his shots as long twos. Lavine and Towns have big question marks defensively, but they're incredibly gifted scorers, and moving Wiggins just makes the fit easier. But I don't think the Timberwolves need to make a move. They are tied for the worst record in the West, but by Pythagorean win-loss they're the eighth best. If they make the playoffs this year, even with a 35 win type record, I think the angst gets toned down considerably. |
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Post by MistleTacoe on Jan 9, 2017 13:05:13 GMT -6
I was thinking about Wiggins too but he's so young I believe you have to continue to ride that train. He's not even 22 yet right? I mean him and Towns COULD be unstoppable when they are both at 25 and I think that possibility is worth waiting for.
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Post by eric on Jan 16, 2017 13:36:05 GMT -6
some New Orleans history
2013: okay offense, terrible defense
2014: okay offense, terrible defense
2015: good offense, bad defense
2016: okay offense, terrible defense
2017: terrible offense, good defense
This is pretty weird. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon have all o no d reputations so there is theoretically addition by subtraction there, but the Rockets are actually better defensively this year. The Pelicans are also playing Davis more as the only big which should make their offense much better and defense much worse. They're taking more threes and free throw attempts as a proportion of their touches, turning it over less with more assists, everything about their offense looks like it's improved except for the final product. Weird!
We're halfway through the season so there's still time for the numbers to regress another way, but not that much time. The Pelicans have been mediocre for years, but it's weird to see them be mediocre in such a wildly different way.
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Post by MistleTacoe on Jan 17, 2017 7:52:02 GMT -6
I feel bad for Anthony Davis
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Post by eric on Jan 19, 2017 9:19:05 GMT -6
The top nine turnovers in a single season from 1990-2015:
344 - Allen Iverson 2005
337 - Allen Iverson 1997
334 - Jim Jackson 1994
328 - Jason Kidd 1996
326 - Jerry Stackhouse 2001
322 - Isiah Thomas 1990
322 - Latrell Sprewell 1997
321 - Dwyane Wade 2005
321 - James Harden 2015
Last year Russell Westbrook had 342.
Last year James Harden had 374.
This year Russell Westbrook is on track for 449.
This year James Harden is on track for 470.
It's a lot, guys. It's a lot of turnovers.
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Post by eric on Jan 19, 2017 9:53:06 GMT -6
Revisiting some earlier analysis with the news of Chris Paul being out a couple months. Barring a Harden/Kawhi injury there's no way the Clippers crack the top three let alone the top two, add in the missed time and Paul has no chance at MVP no matter how well he plays. Here are the current statistical standings: 2.85 James Harden
2.69 Jimmy Butler
2.60 Kyle Lowry
2.58 Kevin Durant
2.52 Chris Paul
2.47 Rudy Gobert
2.43 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.37 Kawhi Leonard
2.37 Russell Westbrook
2.32 LeBron James
2.03 Stephen Curry
1.95 Draymond Green
1.91 Anthony DavisPaul and all the Warriors fell off a little from last time, Love fell off completely, Butler and Lowry came up a little, but Harden is still clearly the best player so far according to statistics. Not much else has really changed. I do want to mention that while the Raptors are a much better team statistically than the Celtics, the Celtics have had a ton of injuries. I expect the Raptors and Cavs to finish top two but the Raptors aren't a shoo-in. Right now my ballot would be Kawhi - Harden - Lowry - LeBron - Butler. I don't think it's gonna change that much as the season goes along. The Thunder/Bulls/Jazz/Bucks aren't gonna suddenly start winning, LeBron isn't gonna suddenly be 25 again, the Rockets (probably) aren't gonna catch the Spurs, the Warriors (probably) aren't gonna blow up their core enough for one of their guys to be able to make a legit case as MVP of their own team. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jan 19, 2017 15:59:26 GMT -6
My hypothetical draft team pairs the #1 and #6 player, plus John Wall, Gordon Hayward and Myles Turner. I'll take my trophy now, please
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Post by eric on Jan 26, 2017 19:49:35 GMT -6
Highest Win Shares to Not Be All Stars #5 Rudy Gobert #11 Chris Paul #18 Karl-Anthony Towns #19 Otto Porter(?!?) #23 Dwight Howard Worst Win Shares to Be All Stars #40 Paul Millsap #62 Klay Thompson #77 Paul George . Same but with Wins Produced: #1 Rudy Gobert #8 Chris Paul #11 Dwight Howard #13 Tyson Chandler #14 Andre Drummond (Wins Produced LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVES centers) #105 Paul Millsap #169 Klay Thompson #261 Paul George . bottom line they should have put Chris Paul in instead of Klay and let Silver select a replacement (like i don't know Rudy Gobert) PG13 is rated  but there's not really any major snubs in the East so not much you can do. The top five East snubs in each stat are Porter, Dwight, Myles, Teague, and Whiteside vs. Dwight, Drummond, Whiteside, Thompson, Teague. If your choices are Dwight  Howard and Jeff Teague we can just stick with Paul George, thanks. Thanks. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jan 26, 2017 20:34:55 GMT -6
Otto!!!
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Post by MJ on Jan 26, 2017 23:38:55 GMT -6
Burn down orlando
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Post by eric on Jan 29, 2017 15:46:51 GMT -6
wanna give a little love to my man Magic Johnson
First of all, he's not a point guard. He was never a point guard. Look at the rosters, watch the tape. He wasn't guarding Mo Cheeks before he jumped center, he was guarding Dr. J.
Okay.
But what's underrated about Magic is how good a scorer he was. He retired at 52% from the field and 84% from the line. Obviously there wasn't really a three ball back then and he retired early so the FG% is a little inflated, but let's look at how many seasons guys scored 20 ppg on 60 TS% (a measure that takes into account the trey):
11 Kareem
10 Dantley
7 Chuck and Durant
6 Reggie
5 LeBron, McHale, Amare, Vandeweghe
4 Curry, Harden, Jordan, Kevin Martin, Dirk
3 Dwight, Magic, Bernard
Seventeen guys. Kawhi is working on season number two and will probably join the list. Giannis is just barely getting season number one, maybe he'll get there.
Bottom line Magic was a really, really good scorer.
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Post by eric on Feb 1, 2017 18:45:19 GMT -6
Wanted to take a peak at my preseason predictions. -got Cleveland at #1 wow, credentials -got Boston #2, but the gap is a lot closer to Toronto than I thought it'd be -plus Toronto has the best pyth w-l in the East, and if DeMar is injured much longer they'll really close the gap Recognizing that the next teams are a little bunched together... -Indy and Charlotte have really let me down. Charlotte is punching below their pyth weight but still -I missed BIG TIME on the Wizards. John Wall, what a star oh gosh. ten times the player Kemba Walker is -why don't you try running instead of walking -  -Atlanta still mucking along -and everyone else is under .500 - stinks . -was a little too high on the Spurs and too low on the Warriors -so far -had LAC three Houston four and they're the other way. Maybe LA catches them without injuries, maybe not -nailed the Jazzers at five #credentials -and i gotta tip my hat to Soup, i underestimated the old men in the Southwest Division. Gritzz and Grindzz are still alive -my Portland #6 pick was looking reaalllly bad a few weeks ago but they're suddenly putting it together, just a game out of #8 wow -they still stink though, just like the Thunder, Wolves, and Nuggets |
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Post by MJ on Feb 3, 2017 15:28:39 GMT -6
8th seed in the west is a train wreck I can't stop watching
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Post by Heynong Man on Feb 6, 2017 19:05:16 GMT -6
I hate the Blazers
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Post by eric on Feb 11, 2017 12:17:41 GMT -6
Watched the Pacers-Wizards game for Turner. Liked the shooting form, touch, defensive awareness, quickness, screen setting. The two glaring issues were Gortat pushing him out of the way on every rebounding opportunity and the way he chilled out on the weak side post when he wasn't involved in the main action, but my feeling is that these are coaching issues.
Late in the game when Seraphin was getting major minutes McMillan still kept Turner on Gortat and had Seraphin chase Morris around. Seraphin has 40 pounds on Turner, that defensive plan is completely backwards, and the Pacers got torched by both Gortat on the offensive glass and Morris for three. Standing around on the weak side post is for guys like Tristan Thompson, Turner should be spotting up beyond or at an absolute minimum near the three point line. It's possible the coaches tell him to do that and he doesn't, but given the manifestly wrong defensive gameplan my feeling is bad coaching is holding Indiana back. They're in the 6th seed but SRS has them pegged as the 11th best team in the East, and it's not gonna take a whole heck of a lot for them to fall out of the playoffs.
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Post by MJ on Feb 15, 2017 11:21:43 GMT -6
Contract Orlando
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Post by eric on Feb 16, 2017 13:58:39 GMT -6
Revisiting some earlier analysis at the all star break (sans tonight's meaningless for MVP purposes games). 2.94 James Harden
2.80 Kevin Durant
2.67 Rudy Gobert
2.60 Kyle Lowry
2.47 Jimmy Butler
2.44 LeBron James
2.44 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.43 Russell Westbrook
2.41 Kawhi Leonard
2.29 Stephen Curry
1.99 Chris PaulHarden further cements his stranglehold on the top spot. Durant is coming on strong but it's really hard to imagine him getting serious MVP votes considering the Warriors are going to have less wins this year than last year. Westbrook is in a clump with LeBron, Kawhi, and Giannis, which is fine company to keep, but the Thunder are a game and a half out of the six seed with no indication they'll catch even that modest standing. (Imagine if you were to put Harden, Durant, and Westbrook all on the same team wow.) MVP traditionally requires being a top two team in a conference, and the Rockets are four back of the Spurs, but with the Love injury they will probably be able to make the case they had a better year than every Eastern team, which I think bodes well for Harden's chances on top of his statistical dominance. s/o to my man Chris Paul. This isn't a rate stat analysis, Paul makes this list on raw production even though he's played 20 some odd less games than the other guys. Pretty staggering. I didn't anticipate this but the list has shrunk each time: started with 14, then 13, now 11 (and very soon to be 10). We know the three stats have extremely divergent methodologies, so it's interesting to see how they agree with each other more the larger the sample size. . With ~25 left to play I don't see anything changing. Harden clearly has the best stats. LeBron could come up with a bigger workload but eventually they have to start resting him (right?) and he's just got way too far to go, but he's also named LeBron and voters have shown many times in the past that they're slow in reacting to the present. Durant could catch up but he'll still be on the Warriors. Lowry has the best case of any of the possible East #2 teams but it's not a good one and the Raptors are in no way a sure thing to finish top two. And of course plenty of people are going to see Westbrook's stats, count how many fingers they have, and decide he's the MVP. Should be interesting / a travesty! |
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Post by MJ on Feb 16, 2017 14:01:59 GMT -6
Harden's to lose
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Post by eric on Feb 17, 2017 14:49:14 GMT -6
today's crazy but true stat
LeBron James 39% from three
Kevin Durant 37%
LeBron assisted on 45% of his threes
Durant assisted on 79%
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Feb 20, 2017 15:03:20 GMT -6
Raelly hoping the Blazers blow this team up. I love Dame but if we could get fair value I would be down to move.
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Feb 21, 2017 12:50:51 GMT -6
Magic running the lake show...good move ?
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Post by Lazy Pete on Feb 21, 2017 13:00:50 GMT -6
Seems like it should be an active deadline, excited to see whether there are any seismic moves. A lot more discussion around big names than usual
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Post by 2poor on Feb 21, 2017 19:54:01 GMT -6
Ainge will fuck up
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Post by SPL on Feb 22, 2017 20:17:41 GMT -6
Would love to see Butler moved for those Brooklyn pick(s)
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Post by eric on Feb 26, 2017 21:56:02 GMT -6
russell westbrook led the league with 314 turnovers in 2011
before today's game he had 318
today he had 9
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but there's not really any major snubs in the East so not much you can do. The top five East snubs in each stat are Porter, Dwight, Myles, Teague, and Whiteside vs. Dwight, Drummond, Whiteside, Thompson, Teague.
