2016-2017 NBA Thoughts (1,754 views)

[MJ]

4th odds awwwwww yeah

[eric]

saw Russ got 17 rebounds last nigh, which is astonishing, looked up what guards have done better

it wasn't even a career high for Westbrook, who once had 19 against the Magic

but Fat Lever had 20

four different times

.

We all remember the D'Antoni Suns. Let's talk about the Doug Moe Nuggets. Douglas E. "Fresh" Moe took over the Nuggets in 1981 and led them to the best offense and second worst defense in the NBA. Over the next three years his teams were never worse than 3rd offense or better than 22nd defense (23 teams back then).

Before the 1985 season the Nuggs traded Kiki Vandeweghe for two picks, Calvin "Pit Bull" Natt (immediately made All-Star), Wayne "Starting Center" Cooper, and one Lafayette "We Have Arrived" "Fat" Lever. The offense dipped slightly but the defense took a big leap, and the Nuggets made the Western Conference Finals. Fat Lever went from 3.9 boards per 36 to 5.8. This is pretty weird because his predecessor Rob Williams was a 3.6 reb/36 guy, and Kiki was like EUH and only got 4.9 so it's not like there was a big void for Fat to fill.

The next year saw the Nuggets jump into the top ten in defense but fall off on offense, and they got run by the famous flash in the pan 1986 Rockets. (Get it? Flash in the pan? Gold nuggets? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA) (AHAHAHAHAHA) Fat rebounded pretty much the same. High, but not shockingly so.

1987 saw many injuries and moving parts for the Nuggets. Fat and the Blade were constants, Wayne "Yep, I'm Still a Starting Center" Cooper was frequent, everything else was in flux. Into this uncertainty Fat abruptly averaged 8.6 boards per 36. The Nuggets didn't win a playoff game, it might seem like the experiment was over.

Nah.

1988 the Nuggets went to what we would call a two point guard lineup with Michael Adams alongside Fat, who still put up 8 reb per 36. Lack of injury helped the Nuggets get to the second round sporting a top ten ORtg and DRtg. While always regarded as run and gun teams the Nuggets were actually better defensively than offensively for the next couple years, although they never had any more penetration into the playoffs, and Fat was traded and massively injured after that.

.

Lever would be the only guard to average 9+ rebounds per game ever until this year, wherever Russ ends up. In that way they are similar. What's astonishingly different is seeing how much they had the ball in their hands. In those four blitz years in Denver Fat averaged 21% usage and 27 assist %. We have no way of knowing how often he was assisted on his own baskets, but the absolute maximum would be if it was literally 0%, in which case he would have had the ball in his hands about 42% of the time.

Westbrook's usage rate alone is 42%. Granted he is assisted 20% of the time (which is a comically low number) but throw in his 56 assist % and we're talking a guy who has the ball in his hands 66% of the time. Had Fat enjoyed such ball dominance he would have been looking at 24/12/9 per game and probably a Hall of Fame spot because Hall of Fame voters are, by and large, morons.

But the main point here is to give some love to the D'Antoni before D'Antoni, the Westbrook before Westbrook. s/o Fat Lever, h/t Doug Moe.

[FectaDEEZ]

Feb 26, 2017 21:56:02 GMT -6 eric said:

russell westbrook led the league with 314 turnovers in 2011
before today's game he had 318
today he had 9

MVP MVP !

[FectaDEEZ]

Russ is also 40th out of 44 qualified pgs in assist to TO ratio. MVP.

[eric]

mvp stats

2.95 James Harden
2.66 Rudy Gobert
2.59 Russell Westbrook
2.53 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.51 LeBron James
2.50 Kevin Durant
2.46 Jimmy Butler
2.42 Kawhi Leonard
2.30 Kyle Lowry
2.22 Stephen Curry
1.97 Karl-Anthony Towns
1.93 Chris Paul
1.87 Nikola Jokic

The Joker is Wild!

The stats really haven't changed since the first time I did this with the exception of Paul and Durant falling off due to missing so many games. Harden is the best, then there's a clump of Giannis, Butler, Gobert, Westbrook, Kawhi, and LeBron in some order depending on week to week hot and cold streaks.
-The Bulls and Bucks remain terrible so that's Giannis and Butler still out.
-The Jazz are decent but nobody's voting a middle class man's Tyson Chandler the MVP so Gobert's still out too.
-The Thunder remain terrible but Westbrook remains averaging as many assists as we have fingers and as many rebounds as we have toes.
-The Rockets remain in third, and even with the Spurs' recent injuries almost certainly won't catch them for #2, but Harden's remain clearly the best stats.
-The Cavs remain in first and LeBron James remains named LeBron James, but the Rockets are a *much* better team.
-The Spurs remain boring.
-The Warriors remain the best team but they'll finish well below last year and would split votes between Durant and Curry anyway.

I've been thinking all year that it was Kawhi's to lose, but the strict application of "best stats on a top two team" now results in LeBron having the best case, and it should only get stronger as Kawhi and Durant miss games / are rested. LeBron should be resting too especially considering he's three times older than those guys, but Lue clearly just isn't going to do that this season. My ballot right now would go:

LeBron (best stats on top two team)
Harden (best stats overall)
Kawhi (third best stats on top two team but it's close and much better defender than Durant)
Durant (second best stats on top two team)
Wall (fourth best stats on top two team)

[Lazy Pete]

not that 5th place matters much, but would you sub Isaiah Thomas for Wall should Boston finish as a top-2 team?

[eric]

Mar 13, 2017 15:21:17 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

not that 5th place matters much, but would you sub Isaiah Thomas for Wall should Boston finish as a top-2 team?

yes, he's the high stat man for the Celtics. interestingly he's at 1.83 to wall's 1.75, i bet most people would think the gap was bigger

[FectaDEEZ]

Harden deserves this.

[eric]

here's a thought about the "max gordon hayward" argument. obviously each of the contenders (warriors spurs cavs rockets) would be better with him on the team. but what if you had to take off $28m of salary (30% of the cap) to get him on the team, would they be better?

the easiest way for the rockets is to drop Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. Hayward is better than both of those players and fits pretty well in their place as Ryno is big in name only, but he can only play one position at a time and they're giving you 61 minutes per game. is Hayward and Minimum Level Scrub X better than the two? probably not.

the cavs have a harder path. You could do Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith but the Cavs are already thin on true bigs and are so desperate for defensive bigs they dug up LARRY SANDERS!!! You could do JR Iman and Korver since only two of the three seem to be in the rotation at any given time, but the same problem applies that Hayward while clearly better than any of them is only one man. Hayard and Derr. Williams are worse than two of those three.

the warriors could swap Durant straight up - no. Or Klay and Curry - no. Or Iguodala and Draymond - no. Iggy and Klay is probably their best bet especially with Iggy in pronounced decline, but Klay is pretty much as good as Hayward anyway and Andre's still better than a scrub, if only for saying ridiculously dumb things to the media to keep the heat off Draymond. #leadership

the spurs would probably do Pau and Danny Green. Pau is a Hall of Famer and still performing very efficiently but the Spurs can apparently manufacture bigs out of nothing so they'd be alright there, and Hayward is a better version of Danny Green.

bottom line i'd only trust the Spurs to make that work, and even then it would be a stretch.

[MistleTacoe]

Feb 17, 2017 14:49:14 GMT -6 eric said:

today's crazy but true stat

LeBron James 39% from three
Kevin Durant 37%

LeBron assisted on 45% of his threes
Durant assisted on 79%

Are you saying that LeBron is better than even his stats imply?

[eric]

really enjoy watching Kawhi on offense
never in a hurry
smooth, strong
he's never gonna be an elite assist man but watching games he is overly UNselfish on the offensive end
he picks up his dribble too early, he goes away from mismatches defending him, he makes the extra pass
it's good for team morale and it's especially good on the starting unit they're running
-tony parker is just done
-danny green is purely a catch and shoot guy (assisted on 83% of his baskets, <2 apg)
-lma has always been a black hole
-dedmon is a deandre jordan type

who's making team plays on that starting unit? sure you can dump it into aldridge and get a decent look but that leaves four guys standing around doing nothing. what kawhi gets that so many other elite scorers never get is that just because you can get a good look whenever you want doesn't mean you should, the ball's gotta move, and it's gotta start with you.

and he'll always be the kawhi robot. last play of the half with maybe seven seconds left to inbound, he runs back and demands the ball, doesn't hurry, isn't rushed, gets to his spot and gets up a decent hook shot. it goes in and everybody's excited... kawhi's the first guy off the floor to get to the locker room, and not in a woofin' it up steph curry kind of way, he's just doing his job.

it's crazy to think how many other superior talents were lost to the kind of health struggles that plagued kawhi early in his career. as fans we're lucky he got it together.

[MistleTacoe]

Westbrook is really gonna average a triple double for an entire season. That shit is crazy.

Oscar averaged a triple double but in 10 MORE MINUTES PER GAME playing against a bunch of slow white dudes.

It's definitely a wild MVP race but my vote goes firmly with Westbrook. Harden has a better team and is a great player but Westbrook's stats are insane. Thunder wouldn't be shit without him.

[eric]

Mar 28, 2017 22:22:54 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Westbrook is really gonna average a triple double for an entire season. That shit is crazy.

Oscar averaged a triple double but in 10 MORE MINUTES PER GAME playing against a bunch of slow white dudes.

It's definitely a wild MVP race but my vote goes firmly with Westbrook. Harden has a better team and is a great player but Westbrook's stats are insane. Thunder wouldn't be shit without him.

Westbrook has by far and away the most positive stats in the league, this is true.

But he also has a huge amount of negative stats.

If you get 300 hits in a major league season that's historic and amazing, but if it took you 1200 at-bats to do so then you're a mediocre hitter.

Unlike baseball, in basketball it's possible to take "at-bats" from your teammates, which Westbrook has been doing at an equally historic rate. He's not taken enough that he grades out as a mediocre player, but his stats are not close to as good as Harden's. The whole point of composite stats is we can't do the mental math of "okay X more rebounds but also he takes Y more shots but he gets to the line Z more times" and get a sum out. The equation is just too complex. You can test this for yourself, consider a toy example:

A is worth 3 points
B is worth -4
C is worth 1

X = 3A + 3B + 6C
Y = 4A + 2B + 2C

Can a human tell which of X and Y are greater just by looking, or do they have to do the sum out?
Wouldn't basketball, where there are far more than three variables, be harder for a human to eyeball?
And notice that this example assumes humans know exactly how much each variable in basketball is worth - this is a provably fraught assumption.

The irony is that when we see a composite stat perform this complex equation and spit out an answer we disagree with, we tell ourselves it's the stat that's missing something rather than our dim, meaty brains. Ha! Ha! What larks.

[MistleTacoe]

I think that the MVP race is impossible to calculate by strictly numbers....I mean, LeBron is clearly the MVP every year regardless of numbers in my opinion. Do his numbers and PER back that up? Meh. It has in the past but its been declining slightly since his Miami Apex.

Everyone and their sister would pick LeBron first in a pick-up game though.

Another argument is that Harden could average a triple double if he tried. Or LeBron could if he tried. If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. It doesn't impress me unless you are actually doing it.

[2poor]

Using arbitrary statistical cutoffs as your main criteria for why someone should win MVP is pretty shoddy logic IMO

[Citizen Cane]

this heat season has been interesting to say the least

[eric]

Mar 29, 2017 9:37:59 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

I think that the MVP race is impossible to calculate by strictly numbers....I mean, LeBron is clearly the MVP every year regardless of numbers in my opinion. Do his numbers and PER back that up? Meh. It has in the past but its been declining slightly since his Miami Apex.

Everyone and their sister would pick LeBron first in a pick-up game though.

Another argument is that Harden could average a triple double if he tried. Or LeBron could if he tried. If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. It doesn't impress me unless you are actually doing it.

This is a different discussion, though. We were talking about whether Harden's numbers are better than Westbrook's numbers - if you want to say there's more than numbers too, fine, but I think we can resolve that first question first. The answer isn't "well double digits are more than single digits so Westbrook's numbers are better", or at least shouldn't be. To return to the baseball analogy, 300 is more than 200, but if you go 300 for 1200 and I go 200 for 400 I'm a way better hitter than you. Big league. Huge.

[Heynong Man]

Jursef Nurkic is the best C in the league

[MistleTacoe]

Mar 29, 2017 9:56:48 GMT -6 2poor said:

Using arbitrary statistical cutoffs as your main criteria for why someone should win MVP is pretty shoddy logic IMO

I mean it isn't really the cutoff that is important. I keep mentioning the triple double because its an easy landmark to compare.

Westbrook season is probably the best statistical seasons since Wilt '61/Jordan '88 in terms of raw numbers. 

Westbrook is #1 is PPG, #3 in APG, #10 in RPG, and 11th in SPG. His PER and value over replacement are #1. Yeah he turns the ball over but compared to Harden its not that bad. Westbrook's usage rate is 25% higher than Harden's and he averages less turnovers per game.

[eric]

Mar 30, 2017 10:59:50 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Mar 29, 2017 9:56:48 GMT -6 2poor said:

Using arbitrary statistical cutoffs as your main criteria for why someone should win MVP is pretty shoddy logic IMO

I mean it isn't really the cutoff that is important. I keep mentioning the triple double because its an easy landmark to compare.

Westbrook season is probably the best statistical seasons since Wilt '61/Jordan '88 in terms of raw numbers. 

Westbrook is #1 is PPG, #3 in APG, #10 in RPG, and 11th in SPG. His PER and value over replacement are #1. Yeah he turns the ball over but compared to Harden its not that bad. Westbrook's usage rate is 25% higher than Harden's and he averages less turnovers per game.

Westbrook isn't even the best statistical season this season, let alone since Jordan. Both Harden and LeBron are having better statistical seasons if we look at Win Shares, Wins Produced, and RPM at the same time. It's fair to ask why we should look at those instead of PER and VORP, and the answer is because the first three historically do a better job of matching actual wins on the court.

[eric]

Scottie Pippen joins the chorus of "greatest season since MJ". Let's prorate Westbrook 2017 to 82 games and look at the stats.

Season A: 13.3 Win Shares, 17.4 Wins Produced, 17.6 RPMWins.
Season B: 14.0 Win Shares, 17.4 Wins Produced, 19.5 RPMWins.

It's close, right? But still, you'd go with Season B.

Season A is Westbrook 2017.
Season B is Westbrook 2016.

[eric]

With the Thunder loss today, they cannot possibly reach 50 wins. So what?

So Westbrook would be the first MVP since 1982 whose team didn't reach that mark. The MVP that year, Moses Malone, led his 46 win Rockets to a first round loss and skipped town in the offseason for Philadelphia, where he won his only title.

Careful what you wish for, OKC fans.

[MistleTacoe]

Mar 31, 2017 18:36:28 GMT -6 eric said:

Scottie Pippen joins the chorus of "greatest season since MJ". Let's prorate Westbrook 2017 to 82 games and look at the stats.

Season A: 13.3 Win Shares, 17.4 Wins Produced, 17.6 RPMWins.
Season B: 14.0 Win Shares, 17.4 Wins Produced, 19.5 RPMWins.

It's close, right? But still, you'd go with Season B.

Season A is Westbrook 2017.
Season B is Westbrook 2016.

Way more impressed with Season A. Just seems like an MVP

[Heynong Man]

Apr 2, 2017 20:40:35 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Mar 31, 2017 18:36:28 GMT -6 eric said:

Scottie Pippen joins the chorus of "greatest season since MJ". Let's prorate Westbrook 2017 to 82 games and look at the stats.

Season A: 13.3 Win Shares, 17.4 Wins Produced, 17.6 RPMWins.
Season B: 14.0 Win Shares, 17.4 Wins Produced, 19.5 RPMWins.

It's close, right? But still, you'd go with Season B.

Season A is Westbrook 2017.
Season B is Westbrook 2016.

Way more impressed with Season A. Just seems like an MVP

based on what?

[MistleTacoe]

Apr 3, 2017 18:10:56 GMT -6 Heynong Man said:

Apr 2, 2017 20:40:35 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Way more impressed with Season A. Just seems like an MVP

based on what?

Sarcasm

[eric]

Pelicans eliminated from playoff contention
Anthony Davis has zero playoff wins in five years

here are the total playoff games won through year five by MVPs who played their entire career in the four round system (1984-present):

44 Kobe Bryant
31 Tim Duncan
26 LeBron James
24 Kevin Durant
22 Hakeem Olajuwon
22 Shaquille O'Neal
20 Allen Iverson
18 Dirk Nowitzki
16 Charles Barkley
15 Derrick Rose*
14 Michael Jordan
13 David Robinson
11 Karl Malone
9 Stephen Curry
7 Steve Nash
4 Kevin Garnett
No zeros, baby. I didn't give Rose credit for 2013 because he missed the entire season, everything else was fair game.

Winning a championship is hard, and it's unreasonable to expect from any player.
Winning a single playoff game isn't that hard.
And I think it's reasonable to expect if we want to call a player a superstar.

Now, the historical model is still basically there for Davis. Low man Kevin Garnett is also the only MVP to have not won a playoff round through year five, and in fact through year six... year seven... year eight... it wasn't until his ninth year that Garnett got out of the first round, and he'll still make the Hall of Fame with a deserved MVP. There are other similarities through this point of their careers: each have (exactly) one All-NBA 1st, each have (exactly) one top five MVP finish, each have (exactly) one All-Defense nod.

Having Kevin Garnett's career is nothing to sneeze at, but it's probably time to disabuse ourselves of the notion that Davis has a LeBron / Duncan tier all time great ceiling. The world needs ditch diggers too.

[MistleTacoe]

Interesting stats. I agree with that post almost 100%

[eric]

i been talking about this a lot but it's crazy

the nba first recorded turnovers in 1978
artis gilmore had 366 turnovers in 1978 and held the record until
james harden had 374 last year
westbrook and harden are both well over 400 this year

it's crazy!!!

[eric]

So at the end of the season, who has the best stats?

2.80 Rudy Gobert
2.75 LeBron James
2.67 James Harden
2.65 Jimmy Butler
2.58 Russell Westbrook
2.39 Stephen Curry
2.38 DeAndre Jordan
2.37 Kawhi Leonard
2.34 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.04 Chris Paul
2.02 Kevin Durant
1.91 Nikola Jokic
1.85 Kyle Lowry

Okay, but these seasons were still historically great, right?

Consider that the high man in Win Shares was Harden with 15, tying him for 70th most... since the ABA-NBA merger.
Or that the high MVP candidate in Wins Produced was LeBron with 19.3, which isn't even the best single season of his career.

.

Finally, we all know the Thunder are worse than the Rockets. But how much worse? What are the chances we give Westbrook the MVP and he accepts it in street clothes during round two?

538 gives the Thunder a 30% chance of winning in round one...
...the same as it gives the putrid Bulls of getting past the Celtics.

.

This season has already been historic for many reasons. The two reigning MVPs joining teams, the triple double, the Warriors falling short of the Bulls' two-year wins record, the turnover record being shattered (by two different players!)... let's hope the season doesn't become infamous for an historically poor MVP choice, up there with 2011, 2008, 2001, etc. (the irony of course being that Westbrook is a clear cut above those three players who effectively played the same position).

.

Bottom line,
LeBron has the best stats but his team's regular season isn't even top six in the league.
Kawhi is the most important to his team but his stats are by far the worst of the four... but stats are terrible at measuring defense.
Harden has only slightly worse stats than LeBron and his team is by a wide margin (on both sides) the third best in the league.
Westbrook's team is about as good as the Bulls and Westbrook's stats are about as good as Jimmy Butler's.

It should be Kawhi or Harden.

I would vote Kawhi Harden LeBron Curry Gobert.

And I would sleep well.

[Deleted]

Kawhi > Lebron