Post by Lazy Pete on Nov 3, 2016 16:45:49 GMT -6
Atlanta HawksLast year's record: 16-66, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Paul Pierce, Rafer Alston
Key Losses: Michael Ray Richardson, Wes Matthews, Tom Gugliotta
Major Offseason moves: none
Current Outlook: Back to the Pile
The Hawks are going to be bad. They were really bad last season, but somehow after putting the Sixers to shame early in the season, they managed to win enough to wind up at 5th lotto odds. Doesn't matter though, because they were in perfect position to scoop up Paul Pierce, who looks like he's going to be a good one. He had a stellar performance in Summer League and played well in the preseason, and should form a formidable wing tandem with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. MKG hasn't improve the way I expected on offense to this point, but he's already a 1st team all-defense player after only two seasons and his jump shot doesn't look busted, so there's a good chance that he could become a two-way force with some favorable TCs and points.
The rest of the team is a bit of a mystery. Felton wasn't bad last year but had some turnover problems, and Amir Johnson looks like he could be a solid back-up or more, but I didn't see anything noteworthy from Green, Miles or Melo. If someone besides Pierce and MKG emerges, the Hawks might end up in the mid-lotto. But despite the loss of tankmaster general Michael Ray Richardson, I think the Hawks land about where they did last season.
Future Outlook: A New Day
This is one of the most success-starved franchises in the league, but I'm hopeful that they've found a steady hand in Gene Ralsherman. He's mostly GM'd using Shaun as a proxy, but there's no denying that this team has a vision and seems to be putting some pieces together for a future. He's done a good job of avoiding the traps of misjudging value in Free Agency or thinking his team is closer to competing than it is, and has a bad team with solid young players. In order to maximize his player's success, he's going to need to find a way to start using SCs and RCs. Otherwise, promising young talent may turn into disappointing vets.
The path forward for the franchise is pretty obvious. Gene should hope to land another stud or two in the draft, and use the ample cap flexibility to either pick up some decent players for cheap or take on some salary from teams in need of cap relief in exchange for dump bucks and picks. That would be a quick way to earn some dump bucks and start developing prospects. I think after a couple more seasons of tanking, we'll see Atlanta in the best position it's been in since the halcyon days of RW.
Projection: Continues to be terrible for a couple seasons but starts making moves to compete after year 2.
Charlotte HornetsLast year's record: 15-67, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Vince Carter, Mike Bibby
Key Losses: none
Major Offseason moves: Traded 4 future 1sts to the Sixers for 1.4, moved that in a couple deals and wound up with 1.17 and 1.5.
Current Outlook: Jumping into the Fray
Until recently, the Hornets haven't had a chance to do much in this league. They were involved in some big trades, sending Randle to the Grizz, Miner to the Suns and Shaq to the Nets, but until this offseason Fecta has smartly determined that his team was not ready to hit the gas on his first effort to build a playoff team. This year is different though, as the Hornets had a very active offseason, landing the #2 pick with their own lotto odds and then trading most of their future 1sts to get another top 5 pick.
There is a lot of talent on the wings in Charlotte, but Vince Carter is clearly the crown jewel of the team. He's got all-star caliber scoring grades without ever playing a game, and his defense and rebounding are elite for a rookie shooting guard as well. He had a good but not great showing at summer league, but with a little seasoning he's got all-league ability. The other three wings are a little harder to project. Beal has some great looking grades and started out the season strong last year, but wasn't able to keep it up and the jury is still out on his long-term chances. Ross played a lot better offensively than his rookie season, and he appears to have a good defensive base after blocking one shot a game. Webster had a big TC last season but played a lot of PF and played it poorly. There's a logjam on the wings this year, and I don't know if Fecta's going to be able to find enough minutes to evaluate all four players and determine which should be kept and which should become a trade piece.
The other two players worth watching will be Bogut and Bibby. Bogut rebounded very well but didn't provide the kind of defense I would've expected, and if last season is any indication then he's going to steal a lot of shots from those wings. Bibby was the player Fecta went all-in for, and PG is such a key position for success in this league, so if Bibby succeeds then the Hornets will be in good shape. If he flames out, they'll be in a tough spot with minimal picks and a few prospects to make a deal. The Hornets will probably struggle a bit this season and may try to tank for a mid-lotto pick to add one more piece, but Fecta showed aggression in putting together this core so he may be eager to get to the playoffs now.
Future Outlook: Boom or Bust
The Hornets are not a complete team yet. There's still at least one hole in their starting lineup and they will boom or bust depending on the development of their prospects. I agree with the strategy of drafting the best players available, but I think Fecta is going to have to move one or two of these wings to put together a more complete team.
There isn't a lot of salary committed after this season, so there will be some room to add a marquee free agent if he gets lucky, but what he learns about all his young guns this season should help to identify where the help is needed. I am hopeful that it works out, and the promise of Vince alone is a solid foundation for team building. But if there isn't another blue chipper or two among Bibby, Beal, Webster, Ross or Bogut, then the Hornets are going to be in a tough place.
Projection: Another lottery pick this year. Vince Carter is among the leading scorers in the league by year 2 and Terrence Ross emerges from the pack as the #2 option. By year 3 the Hornets approach playoff relevancy.
Chicago BullsLast year's record: 31-51, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Brad Miller
Key Losses: Isidoro Meyers, Michael Carter-Williams
Major Offseason moves: Traded the 11th pick to the Thunder for three firsts
Current Outlook: No-Man's Land
The Bulls have been drifting ever since Jimmy Jackson left in free agency, and I don't see anything to suggest that this year will be different. Newell is still one of the better PGs in the league and is only 27, so he's got a lot of career left, so it's strange that there hasn't really been anybody trying to trade for him. The more troubling thing for me is the high dollar contracts for Mikan and Kwame. Both are good defensively and have shown occasional flashes as two-way players, but they shoot too much and they are probably never going to do it well. Kwame is still only 23 so maybe there's some hope for him to play up to the contract, but Mikan is a lost cause and eating up salary cap as if he were a max player.
All that being said, I liked Lip's move this offseason to punt on the draft and pick up those three picks. The Bullets and Pacers picks could be in the teens or even late lotto, and that Rockets pick looks even nicer when you consider the cap problems the Rockets may have resigning Ewing. Until then though, Chicago's ceiling looks like the 8 seed and floor looks like late lotto, which is the one of the worst places to be.
Future Outlook: A New Hope
I'm not optimistic that the Bulls are able to get out of either Mikan or Kwame's deals to go scorched earth, but they should at least have max cap space this offseason and a decent arsenal of picks to try and replenish the talent in Chicago. Rashad McCants had a decent season as a rookie, and Bowen and Ilyasova looked good in Summer League, so there are some younger guys who Lip can develop while he figures out what to do with the rest of the team.
They will face an interesting decision this offseason about whether or not to resign Newell. On the one hand, it's unlikely that the Bulls will be able to add enough talent to become a contender during the rest of Newell's prime, but on the other hand he's a great PG who should still have value. If I were calling the shots in Chicago, I would see what I could get for him on the trade market now that he's on the final year of his contract.
Projection: Newell gets moved this season or leaves in FA, and the Bulls become a full fledged tanker. However, Kwame and Mikan keep the defense capable enough that they don't land lotto odds higher than 8th.
Cleveland CavaliersLast year's record: 58-24, 1st round exit
Key Additions: Isidoro Meyers
Key Losses: none
Major Offseason moves: none
Current Outlook: Four Factors Championship Contender
The Cavs were busy last off season, stitching together the remnants of some great Sixers and Bucks squad to create a competitive team for the first time in a long while. After getting shut out for so long by the software, Jesse Epstein broke through with a stellar MVP campaign, fulfilling all of Eric's hopes and dreams. The big jump in his assist total is probably the main reason why he suddenly got some love.
In addition to the reigning MVP, the Cavs have a strong collection of proven vets to fill out the starting lineup. Dario Saric is above average or better at every skill you want from a wing. His scoring has always been nice, but my favorite trait is the rebounding he brings to the table. McLemore had a nice bounce back season after a down year in Philadelphia, and Koufos kept doing his thing on the low block.
There is quality depth here as well. Tristan Thompson isn't the defensive force he used to be but he's still a very capable back-up, and while it's disappointing to see Karl Malone relegated to a backup role, he's probably best suited feasting on lesser competition who can't expose his defensive deficiencies. Mario Elie was a crowd favorite last season and had a very good season as a reserve. He looks poised for a big year as his rookie contract comes to an end. Moe Harkless is another name to watch. He hasn't put it together yet on the court but his age, grades and smooth free throw shooting make him a very intriguing prospect.
I expect the Cavs to be among the best teams in the East this season and a true title contender.
Future Outlook: Teetering on the Brink
While I really like the Cavs this year, those all in trades for well established stars puts a very real expiration date on their title window. Saric does enough things well that he'll age gracefully like Shareef or Lockhart, but if that aging starts this year, then by year 3 of that deal $19 mil is going to seem like a lot. Koufos is on a much cheaper deal, but there's a strong risk that last season was the beginning of the end for his effectiveness on offense. He's a long way away from slipping on defense though, and that's where the Cavs need him anyway.
The guards are both still under 30, and Epstein will most likely continue to resign on ridiculously cheap deals, so there's not as much concern there. But the age and length of these veteran deals will make it tricky for the Cavs to bring back everyone again. They've got $63 million in salary already committed for next year, and unless Markieff Eaton, Malone and Elie offer below-market deals, they'll probably lose one of them. Malone is the most intriguing since he has such a good pedigree and I'd expect at least one team with cap next offseason would be willing to gamble on him, but Elie should be the most costly to retain. If he plays well this season, he may even fetch max money.
The Cavs have enough star power here to compete at an elite level for another couple years, but by year 3 the writing will be on the wall and a franchise reboot will be drawing near.
Projection: Cavs win 60+ this season and high 50s next, but start to show their age by year 3
Memphis BobcatsLast year's record: 59-23, Conference Semi-Finals
Key Additions: Andre Drummond, Mychal Thompson
Key Losses: Bismack Biyombo, Gerald Wallace
Major Offseason moves: Traded Wayman Tisdale and a 1st for Andre Drummond
Current Outlook: House of Guards
The Bobcats had a big season last year, leaping from 50 wins the previous season to 59 this past season, matching the franchise best. A lot of that improvement came from the upgrade at PG from Lil Penny to Sidney Deane, who set career highs in points, steals and rebounds and had his most efficient season to date since becoming a starter. He was a deserving first time all-star and really showed that he was among the best at the position.
The Bobcats are one of the most unique teams in the league, and juggled the minutes between their four talented guards very effectively last season. Hal Greer has turned into a volume scorer and rebounds fairly well given his size. Eric Gordon has been on the block for at least three or four seasons but had a good offensive season last year playing primarily SF. Still, I think he may be better suited to play the PG-SG-SF hybrid supersub, and despite his good defense probably gives up too much on the rebounding front to be a reliable every day SF. Salim Stoudamire had a very nice rookie season. His sweet shooting stroke was on full display and he shot it with a lot more volume than I would've guessed. The rest of his game has some holes, so he may never develop into more than a quality backup, but Odin will certainly give him the opportunity. Jonathan Bender is another player who has been on the market for a long time, but he had a solid season last year playing PF. He's developed into a great rebounder and his low FG% is misleading considering he's one of very few bigs in the league who can take and make 3s regularly AND he plays good defense.
The other bigs are a bit of a mixed bag. Adultman did a lot of businesses last year in the paint, swatting a good number of shots and rebounding well considering his C+ grade. He's already 33, but if this is the finished product then I think the Bobcats are very happy with him. On the other hand, the recently acquired Andre Drummond has a lot to prove. He took all the shots for an awful Sixers team that was happy to oblige him, but Memphis will have to coach him to be more efficient or he's going to find himself on the bench as the season goes. His rim protection is also not at the stage most expected when he came into the league, and until that changes it's hard to justify giving him much run. He's only 21 though, so there's a lot of time for him to get better.
Ultimately, there are some concerns about this team defensively, but they generate a lot of turnovers and that should help mask the shot-blocking that is less than ideal. The strong guard play ensures that they should be able to score with most teams.
Future Outlook: More turnover than Grant Hill reading a Paula Dean cook book
This was a very quiet offseason for one of the league's most active teams. It's very strange to see the Bobcats roll into a season with so much continuity, but it's probably a good idea for a team coming off 59 wins. However, I expect that this will be the last year for this core of players before Odin makes a major trade or two. Greer is the only starter under the age of 30, and if the Bobcats don't get close to a title this year, then Odin will look to change things up. The most obvious trade target is Greer, who has increased his scoring every year as a Bobcat and should still have several years of his prime left.
As far as development, Salim and Drummond are basically it. Odin swapped Jae Crowder and Spud Webb, two recent lotto picks, to Toronto before last season to add Ron Artest and shore up his wing depth. Unfortunately, that left the cupboard bare for developmental prospects, and it stings a little more after seeing Crowder become a very similar player to Artest already. This presents a problem, since the Bobcats have few assets to offer in a trade. They don't project to be a player in free agency until after next season either, so their opportunity to add talent without moving a key piece is slim.
Unfortunately, this strikes me as a team that will end up stuck in the 5-8 range of the playoffs for the next few seasons after this one. The Bobcats have pulled off some great trades under similarly murky circumstances though, so I wouldn't count them out just yet.
Projection: The Bobcats fall around the 4-6 seed range this year and undergo a massive roster turnover this offseason, making all of my analysis irrelevant.
Indiana PacersLast year's record: 26-56, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Raef LaFrentz, Gerald Wallace, Michael Brooks, Nazr Mohammed
Key Losses: Dante Exum
Major Offseason moves: None
Current Outlook: Young and Feckless
This year's Pacers squad doesn't look much different than last year's group, which was a little too good for a full on tank but was a few notches below threatening for a playoff spot. They swung a major trade the previous off-season, sending multiple 1sts to the Thunder for Deron Williams. Early returns on that trade are mixed. Williams shot with volume but wasn't very efficient, and he didn't appear to get much better during this offseason. His success as a prospect is going to be critical for the Pacers if they want to break out of the lottery, and he still has the potential to take a big leap forward. Andrew Bynum was another marquee rookie last year but he too looks like he'll need a bit more seasoning before the Pacers develop. His huge frame and strong reputation had a lot of GMs thinking he would be a two-way force as soon as he entered the league, but his rim protection was only average and his offensive game was a minus.
The most promising player on the Pacers appears to be AC Green, a virginal young talent that was shipped to Indianapolis in the Pau Gasol trade and looks to have found his comfort zone in the small forward position. Green had a massive preseason two seasons ago and I expected him to be a breakout star last year, but he disappointed with a subpar shooting performance. If he can right the ship and put it all together, he could be the #1 option of the future in Indiana.
There are a few of other intriguing wings on this roster, none of whom have been able to show more than flashes of talent. Chris Mullin showed some promise in his rookie season, but his career is heading the wrong direction and he has found himself in the doghouse to start the season. Harrison Barnes is another top pick who has had stagnant growth since entering the league. He's a lower usage wing but doesn't appear to have much defensive talent, which is a less than ideal combination. Gerald Wallace showed some promise early in his career as an impact defender but never seemed to build on it, and I'm not sure that he'll bring enough to the table to warrant the contract he signed this offseason. Michael Brooks also came over from Seattle to try and recapture the scoring mojo he found early last season. His veteran presence may help the Pacers in the short term, but on a team that doesn't have a realistic shot at competing, he's an odd fit.
In the front court, new rookie addition Raef LaFrentz hopes to shore up a spot next to Bynum in the Pacers' front court of the future. He had a strong preseason performance and a fantastic summer league, but offers little in the way of defense down low. Given Bynum's aforementioned mediocrity, there figure to be a lot of easy chances in the paint this year. Behind the starters, there is the familiar sight of young talent that has gone unfulfilled so far. David Lee did some things on offense and Festus Ezeli was brought over from the Cavs to try to cover some of the deficiencies of the other bigs, but overall there doesn't seem to be anyone on the roster capable of anchoring the defense.
Future Outlook: Promise Unfulfilled
It's no secret that the Pacers have struggled to develop talent over the years. Despite several recent lottery picks, the roster is pretty devoid of star power. That's not to say there isn't a reason to get excited, however. This is an incredibly young team, with only one player older than 25. I am an AC Green believer and I think that Andrew Bynum has shown that he can be a building block as well, given some luck in his development in the coming seasons.
The biggest concern I have with this team is whether the organization will be able to wring the most out of these players. Even the most active player development teams would have trouble deciding who to invest in on this roster, and it seems more likely that someone like Harrison Barnes will find success as another team's reclamation project than succeed in Indiana. The Pacers management will have to think long and hard about which players are worthy of investing in, and whether it might be worth trying to move one or two of these recent lotto picks for a more proven veteran or some future asset.
The other complication for this team is that they won't have their own first round pick for two more years, meaning that there likely won't be a savior coming via the draft in the next few years either. This team's future depends on how their current roster develops, which is a scary thought given the track record.
Projection: The Pacers struggle to score and have an even harder time getting stops, and things don't get much better the following two seasons. They give a top 8 pick the next two years to the Bulls and Timberwolves, respectively.
Milwaukee BucksLast year's record: 22-60, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Rashard Lewis, Kent Bazemore
Key Losses: Alexis Geiger, Matthew Jacobson, Popeye Jones
Major Offseason moves: Traded the 7th overall pick and a future 1st round pick to the Clippers for the 3rd overall pick
Current Outlook: Buckle Up for Safety
After a successful run that saw the Bucks take home their first title since 4.0 began, Trofie tore down his team before last season and sent the Bucks back into the lottery. In return for demolishing the core, the Bucks picked up some very nice young prospects who were among the few bright spots for the team last year. Danny Granger was the best rookie not named Chris Paul, and displayed a lot of balance on his way to all-rookie honors. He scored almost 25 per game (albeit on a roster without many other scoring threats), and showed that he's got the potential to be a plus defender and rebounder as well. The other young building block appears to be Lou Williams, who showed a knack for scoring in reserve minutes last season and is off to a hot start this year as the primary ball handler. If he can limit the turnovers and provide average defense, he'll have a bright future in the league.
The early returns on the trade up for Rashard Lewis are very positive. He had a fantastic offseason and looks a lot more polished than I expected. He didn't have a great preseason but spent most of his time at the 4, but most expect that his long term future is on the wing. He'll be an interesting rookie to watch this season, and if he turns out to be a cornerstone then the Bucks will have a strong perimeter nucleus to build around. Fan favorite Pat Garrity showed a little spark this offseason as well, and will get a chance to show that he belongs in the Bucks's future plans.
The front court, on the other hand, is a disaster. The Bucks spent two firsts last season on Marcin Gortat and Sean May, and both looked completely lost. May is a disaster defensively and didn't fare much better on offense, while Gortat only saw limited minutes but did nothing in that time to show he deserves more. Hayden Edwards was a key piece for the Bullets over the years, but has been glued to the bench since arriving in Milwaukee to allow some of the younger players to get more playing time. Even moreso than the Pacers, this is a team that is going to struggle to defend the rim. The question this year will be whether the offensive weapons on the perimeter will be enough to make up for the defensive holes in the interior. I think not, which is what Trofie is hoping for too.
Future Outlook: The Buck Swaps Here
The Bucks look to be on the right track to building another contender. They have found some good perimeter players in the past couple drafts, and despite some misses on big men should be able to field a competitive team in a couple years should they choose to continue down the standard path of team development.
However, Milwaukee is not known to be a patient franchise, and very rarely do you see the kind of multi-year tank that is so commonplace for the rest of the league. The league is a buyer's market these days, and the past few years there have been several good players who either got traded for pennies on the dollar or signed to discount deals simply because there are no other suitors. I expect Trofie to take advantage of this and swing a major trade or two within the next couple seasons to get back to his winning ways. He's already moved a couple future firsts, but there are enough picks/young talent remaining for trof to make a play for a major big man to go with his perimeter talent.
Should he choose to stand pat, however, he may be better off moving at least one of these perimeter talents to get closer to the bottom and have a better chance at a stud in the next two drafts. Either way, Trofie is never one to stay quiet on the trade front, and you can expect that the Bucks have another contender, some or all of these players will be wearing different uniforms.
Projection: The Bucks are patient this season, and then make a couple major signings/trades this upcoming offseason to put themselves into the playoffs by year 2 and contention by year 3.
Toronto RaptorsLast year's record: 64-18, Conference Finals
Key Additions: BEEFTANK
Key Losses: Nikola Vucevic
Major Offseason moves: none
Current Outlook:
A team near and dear to my heart, the Toronto Raptors are coming off of the best regular season in team history and yet another disappointing playoff loss at the hands of Jimmy, Larry and the gang. After cruising through the first half of the regular season and hanging on to the 1 seed despite some late injuries, this was an impressive team led by the emerging star Shane Battier and one of the better frontcourts in the league. The whole gang is back for another try, save Nikola Vucevic, and they are hoping to finally topple the Celtics monolith and make it out of the Eastern Conference.
The Raptors are an experienced team at almost every position. Sleepy Floyd had a down year by his standards and is no longer an all-league caliber player, but he's very capable of running the show and is one of the few players on the squad capable of generating turnovers, although he's almost as good as creating those chances for the other teams. Behind him is the diminuitive Spud Webb and the even smaller Beeftank Tsakalidis. Spud showed a lot of moxie filling in for Sleepy during a 20 game stretch last season and looks to continue a trend of shrunken point guards in the league.
On the wings, Battier put it all together last season to become a two-way force. He made his first all-star game and all-league team and will look to continue that success. Jae Crowder was brought over right before the season and proved too good to keep out of the lineup, providing a strong defensive presence and showing enough promise on offense to hint that he may have a future on that end.
The front court has been the real strength of this team the past 5 seasons, and this year is no exception. Chris Webber and Zach Randolph form one of the most potent front court tandems in the league, although the question remains whether a team can succeed with two bigs who take so many shots away from their teammates. Webber in particular seems to have lost his touch on offense, although his defense and eye-popping assists are enough to look past his sub-par shooting. Randolph is one of a very few number of big men capable of putting up efficient scoring, but his knock has always been defense. He had a great season by his standards last year, swatting 2.5 shots per game, by far his best mark. If he can resume defending like that, he'll remain one of the better bigs in the league.
Overall, this is a team built to win with defense. Despite Randolph's struggles, overall this team blocks a ton of shots and rebounds like few others. They are off to a slow start to this season, but the Toronto faithful are hoping that the veteran team is just playing itself back into shape.
Future Outlook: That scene in Jurassic Park where the door closes on the Raptor's hand
The slow start to this season has highlighted that the window for this team may be getting narrower by the day. None of the key pieces is old enough to expect a sharp decline in play, but there are only two or three more seasons before they start looking creaky. The Raptors will face a particularly difficult decision with Chris Webber this offseason. He has long been the face of the franchise and should still have a few years left at a high level, but he's no longer the max player that he has been getting paid as and may entertain other offers if the Raptors can't meet his salary demands. Battier and Randolph both entered the league in the same season, but Shane is already well into his prime years and there may be some questions as far as if he can sustain last year's level of play throughout the length of his deal.
The Raptors are without a first round pick for the next three seasons, so they are counting on the development of some of their young players, particularly Spud, Crowder and Will Barton, if they are to find someone to pick up the slack if one or more of their vets can't break out of their early season funk. The Raptors have done a good job of keeping themselves in mid-tier playoff to contender status since Webber came on board over a decade ago, but the salary cap flexibility has all but evaporated and they will face some tough choices soon about whether they can improve enough to pose a threat to the Celtics and other top teams.
Projection: The Raptors bounce back from a sluggish start to the season and win a playoff series, only to fall for the fourth straight year to the Boston Celtics. They entertain blowing it up in the offseason but find that no one is buying talent before the '42 draft tankapalooza, and instead ride out with this team into the sunset.
