3043 Rookie Ladder (845 views)

[eric]

preseason and summer league

I wanna start by saying this is a weird class so far. I expect a lot of movement in the ladder this year, not because everyone is good like last year or because everyone is bad like two years ago. It's more weird than good or bad. Here we go.

.

1. Josh Jackson



There were a lot of garish numbers thrown around so far, but I like Josh's the best. He was very good scoring in both summer league and preseason which almost nobody was, he's SG eligible at 6'8" with ~7 rebs per 36 between the two, doesn't turn the ball over, reasonable defensive stats. I wouldn't be shocked if he never sniffs #1 again, but I would be shocked if he turns out to be a bum.

.

2. Justin Patton




3. Jarrett Allen



Stay with me here. Nobody in preseason blocked more than 2 shots per 36 of guys who got minutes. Nobody! Incredibly low shot blocking in this class. The Two Js are both legit seven footers, were both slightly above average scorers in summer league, and did very well blocking shots. Justin had the much better scoring volume so he could be a Benoit Benjamin type down the road with some excellent TCs. Jarrett was set with d/r but only put up 10 pts per 36. On the plus side that means if his efficiency craters he'll be low enough to be a plausible d/r man, but it sets a pretty hard ceiling on his two way potential.

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4. Miles Bridges




5. Dillon Brooks



Two guys who would be at or near the top if they had been SF, but they're SF/PF so it's gonna be a slog for them. Miles was the best d/r man in the class in preseason, but at 6'6" and keeping in mind how block poor this class is he'll never cut it at PF. He was incandescent scoring in summer league and putrid in preseason, but either way he'll be a decent d/r SF. Dillon at 6'7" was a much more reliable scorer but needs more d/r work. If they're lucky they can get Mike Farmer level. I'm not optimistic.

.

6. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk




7. Devonte Graham



Too Sveet and Graham Cracker are doing their best Alredick Hughes impression, but neither were in summer league so I'm skeptical until we get to the real season. I trust Mykhailiuk more because of his size so he goes first.

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8. Jawun Evans



Evans three point ratio is very good and his %s should come up. He was also solid in summer league with good to very good ast/tov and rebounding. Very poor defensive statistics and scoring volume could use some work too though.

.

9. Frank Ntilikina



Frank is huge for a point guard which is great news because his handles look really bad. Had unstoppable %s in summer league and mediocre ones in preseason, which ones are true will go a long way to determining his ceiling. Looks very good d/r wise at PG.

.

10. Caleb Swanigan



There are a LOT of slick scoring bigs in this class who can't block a shot to save their lives. Swanny compounds this by only being 6'9", but I trust his scoring the most so I'm putting him here. Throw in a mild turnover problem and he needs a huge amount of work and luck to be worthwhile. I wouldn't say a thousand to one, more like a million to one.

[Trofie]

Excited about patton and brooks

[MistleTacoe]

These are so much easier to digest and read when I don't have a 1st round pick being judged

[Deleted]

SUCK IT BITCHES!

ALL HAIL ERIC THE ROBOT

[Bruns]

hmmm

[eric]

day 30

I want to stress again that this is a weird class, and the PT isn't helping: Miles Bridges and Dillon Brooks have combined for 0 minutes played, Devonte Graham and Jawun Evans 21. Not 21 per game, just 21. They were pretty iffy to start with so they're all off the ladder this time around. Even the guys who have gotten time have been all over the map. It's going to be a volatile year.

.

1. Nigel Hayes - LR unranked



The Big Crane was middling in preseason and has been great so far in the regular season. At 6'7" you'd love to see him at SG long term but he is unfortunately not eligible. With his modest d/r ability and an impending regression on his FG%, he's going to need some great Three Point camps to be a useful player, which he could conceivably get at SF.

.

2. Jarrett Allen- LR #3



Is still a legitimately good d/r man right now, and as his rebounding TCs progress could be an elite one. His efficiency took a big nose dive since summer league but as mentioned last time his volume is still low enough that he can be a d/r guy.

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3. Justin Patton- LR #2



Pat-a-Cake is also pretty much the guy he was before the season. Average efficiency, excellent d/r in this class which means okay compared to the league at large, volume too high to be a pure d/r guy. The bones of a great player are here, but his floor remains a lot lower than Allen's.

.

4. Caleb Swanigan- LR #10



Caleb "Ron the Swan Swoboda" Swanigan has kept up his super elite scoring and has shown a lot more blocking prowess - almost 1.5 per 36! He'll never be playable as a starter with his size and current d/r, but starting at 1.5 gives him a much better shot in the future than his preseason mark of 0.5.

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5. Josh Jackson - LR #1



The scoring's fallen off a bit. I think he'll turn it around, but until he does he drops spots.

.

6. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk - LR #6



Between pre and reg season we're now looking at 180 minutes of super sublime scoring, and his three point ratio suggests the elite FT% is legit. And he's still a 6'8" SG, and he's still blocking shots. We're not in Alredick Hughes territory yet, but in this class no red flags is easily enough to keep him on the ladder.

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7. Vince Edwards - LR unranked



Vin Man has barely played but has been quite good when he has, and he's another guy who's 6'8" and SG eligible. Good enough for me.

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8. Jayson Tatum - LR unranked



If this was just a regular season ladder Jayson's average efficiency elite volume production would be Werth a top three spot, but he was brutal in preseason so I don't trust him yet. Yet another 6'8" SG eligible guy works in his favor though.

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9. Malik Monk - LR unranked



The Monk has decent efficiency but at 6'4" with poor rebounding his future has to be at PG. He's in the 2 TO per 36 range even while playing most of his time at SG so there's a concern there too, but it's a lot easier for PGs to improve handling than SGs to grow three inches. Monk takes teammate Frank Ntilikina's spot and it could really go either way. Frank is a dramatically better defender with better handling, but his scoring is pretty brutal and non scoring point guards are just non starters.

.

10. Lauri Markkanen- LR unranked



Lauri is big, has kept up his very good scoring efficiency, and has infinitely improved his shot blocking over preseason. Instead of 0 blocks per 700 minutes, he's all the way up to 5! Wow!

[Deleted]

3 rookies in the top 10! Wow what a class for the Celtics!

[Lazy Pete]

I disagree w/ your assessments

[2poor]

Feel like #6 is a legit troll

[eric]

Jan 23, 2017 10:47:34 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

I disagree w/ your assessments

Why? Why? Why? / What? / Why exactly? / What? Why? / Be more constructive with your feedback, please.

[Deleted]

I'm shocked that eric even touched on Lauri with his complete lack of blocks.

[Lazy Pete]

Jan 23, 2017 11:40:36 GMT -6 eric said:

Jan 23, 2017 10:47:34 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

I disagree w/ your assessments

Why? Why? Why? / What? / Why exactly? / What? Why? / Be more constructive with your feedback, please.

Josh hart is objectively better than Josh Jackson

Per 36, he's got better FG%, more FTA, better FT%, more 3PA, better 3P%, better rebounding, better AST/TO, same steals, nearly identical blocks, much better volume (they're both listed as #1 scoring options on the depth chart).

In preseason, Hart again edges Jackson per 36 in FG%, FTA, 3PA, 3P%, rebounding, AST/TO, steals, identical blocks, and volume.

In summer league, Jackson gets the edge on Hart in most categories, except for # of games started as a center.

So why is Jackson the former #1 and now #5 player, and Hart is left off the list entirely? If Hart isn't on because he doesn't score efficiently enough, what has Jackson done to deserve his place on the ladder?

[eric]

Jan 23, 2017 12:18:20 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

Jan 23, 2017 11:40:36 GMT -6 eric said:

Why? Why? Why? / What? / Why exactly? / What? Why? / Be more constructive with your feedback, please.

Josh hart is objectively better than Josh Jackson

Per 36, he's got better FG%, more FTA, better FT%, more 3PA, better 3P%, better rebounding, better AST/TO, same steals, nearly identical blocks, much better volume (they're both listed as #1 scoring options on the depth chart).

In preseason, Hart again edges Jackson per 36 in FG%, FTA, 3PA, 3P%, rebounding, AST/TO, steals, identical blocks, and volume.

In summer league, Jackson gets the edge on Hart in most categories, except for # of games started as a center.

So why is Jackson the former #1 and now #5 player, and Hart is left off the list entirely? If Hart isn't on because he doesn't score efficiently enough, what has Jackson done to deserve his place on the ladder?

FG%, FTA/36, FT%, 3PA/36, and 3P% are not the best way of measuring scoring efficiency. In this case, because Jackson has more FTA / FGA they end up at the same spot in terms of pts/tsa: 1.02.

I don't just look at raw pts/tsa though because fluctuations in three point percentange can have an outsize impact on it, so I factor in three point ratio. When I do that in this case Jackson creeps up to 1.03 and Hart down to 1.00.

If that was all there was to it neither one would be on the ladder, because average efficiency for wings is 1.06. In each of their cases they were very good in preseason, but Jackson did so over 850 minutes and Hart over 239. (They have played 847 and 578 respectively so far this season.) The same three point ratio effect makes Hart's apparently better numbers not really there, but even with the smaller sample Hart still would probably get in if this was the end.

But he was super bad in summer league where Jackson was alright. Putting their entire resumes together I see Hart as a minus efficiency scorer and Jackson as average to above average. The biggest weight goes to the regular season and that weight will increase as the season goes on, so if Hart doesn't play better he won't make it, but for now preseason and summer league still play a significant role, so for now Jackson stays on.

[Lazy Pete]

Sounds like a load of crap to me

[Lazy Pete]

Also seeing you citing minutes played as a determining factor makes zero sense when looking at your rookie ladder

[Lazy Pete]

And, in case you missed my point about Josh Hart playing center for the entirety of summer league, I don't really find his production or lack thereof to be a relevant data point

[Lazy Pete]

Jan 23, 2017 10:14:35 GMT -6 eric said:

Miles Bridges and Dillon Brooks have combined for 0 minutes played

Miles Bridges will not play in this league until 3045

[eric]

Jan 23, 2017 13:06:43 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

Also seeing you citing minutes played as a determining factor makes zero sense when looking at your rookie ladder

Minutes are not a determining factor. They tell us what relative weight two data points should have: if a guy is good in 100 minutes and bad in 800, he's probably bad. If he's good in 800 and bad in 800, he's probably medium.

Jan 23, 2017 13:08:36 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

And, in case you missed my point about Josh Hart playing center for the entirety of summer league, I don't really find his production or lack thereof to be a relevant data point

He didn't play center for the entirety of summer league. He entered every game at center, but moved all around.

[Lazy Pete]

I'll get started cooking this heaping helping of crow that you'll be eating by the end of the season

[eric]

day 60

.

1. Nigel Hayes - LR #1



Sticking with Lil Frasier. Scoring great even as his FG% and 3P% comes down. Still has the long term d/r concerns as SF, but he could very easily blossom to a 25 ppg 1.10 pts/tsa player and that goes a long way.

.

2. Caleb Swanigan- LR #4



If he could play small forward he'd be a no doubt #1, but he's a 6'9" big. He keeps blocking enough shots that you can kind of talk yourself into him as a poor man's Dirk, but he's never going to grow three inches or start taking threes. There are a lot of reasons for optimism and pessimism with The Medium Boilermaker, right now I'm going with the former.

.

3. Justin Patton- LR #3




4. Jarrett Allen- LR #2



I keep going back and forth with these two. Allen is looking less and less likely to be able to score at a league efficient level, but he's already got great d/r numbers. Not good, great. J-Pat's shot blocking still isn't quite there, but he's got the scoring enough for me to give him the nod this update.

.

5. Jayson Tatum - LR #8



Has washed the stink of preseason off - decent efficiency, looks very nice d/r as an SG. Concerns going forward are whether his turnovers come down (maybe) and whether he can replicate this volume when not on an NBDL team (no).

.

6. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk - LR #6



Keeps adding minutes of sublime scoring. Looks slightly better on d stats than Tatum but is clearly behind on rebounding.

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7. Malik Monk - LR #9



Is beginning to distance himself from teammate Frank un tee lee KEE nah and the rest of the chasing pack but has all the same issues: too short for SG, bad handles for PG, must improve volume.

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8. Lauri Markkanen- LR #10



Scoring about as well as Justin Patton but blocking shots about as well as Malik Monk. It's a weak class, what do you want from me.

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9. Bam Adebayo - LR unranked



Bam "Bam Rubble" Adebayo is a big fella with decent d/r prospects. Shoots a little too much but is way too far from efficient to bother trying there.

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10. Harry Giles - LR unranked



Another new boy, he's got size youth potential and rebounding, plus enough scoring volume at almost average efficiency to potentially be a two way guy down the line. The shot blocking is not there, and while it's likely it develops there's no guarantee.

.

previously ranked:
Josh Jackson - scoring continues to dip. It won't take much for him to get back on the ladder though.
Vince Edwards - no more PT

.

and a new feature, i'm posting all the regular season stats i use to rank these fellas. this includes every rookie to score a point, so if you want to know why Player X isn't here and Player Y is maybe this will help.

SPOILER: Click to show

pts/tsa blk/36 ast:tov reb/36 pts/36 xpts/tsa mp Player
1.119 0.33 1.22 7.03 21.27 1.108 946 Nigel Hayes SF
1.075 1.41 1.00 10.13 18.84 1.089 448 Caleb Swanigan C
0.962 1.99 1.22 11.46 16.82 0.966 954 Justin Patton C
0.849 3.30 0.75 10.99 10.99 0.849 891 Jarrett Allen C
1.067 0.68 0.70 7.95 27.26 1.074 1458 Jayson Tatum SF
1.151 0.68 2.50 5.43 14.26 1.158 127 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk SG
1.033 0.35 1.31 5.16 14.19 1.062 1259 Malik Monk SG
0.996 0.23 0.82 9.55 14.61 0.995 1409 Lauri Markkanen C
0.871 1.77 0.71 11.73 8.84 0.871 1030 Bam Adebayo PF
0.933 0.75 1.00 12.00 12.75 0.933 619 Harry Giles PF
0.925 0.87 2.60 6.07 13.45 1.100 166 Dillon Brooks SF
1.236 0.00 4.00 7.67 24.20 1.230 43 Vince Edwards SF
1.013 0.52 1.69 7.53 24.80 0.994 1342 Josh Hart SG
1.013 0.21 3.31 5.49 20.38 1.019 1262 De'Aaron Fox PG
0.944 0.81 0.83 7.63 18.92 0.934 1628 OG Anunoby SF
1.016 0.52 1.67 6.91 18.73 1.016 1548 Josh Jackson SF
0.951 1.24 1.51 6.55 18.51 0.978 1244 Markelle Fultz PG
0.945 0.31 3.54 6.38 15.84 0.954 1330 Lonzo Ball PG
0.981 0.85 2.58 5.25 14.52 1.024 1210 Frank Ntilikina PG
1.010 0.23 2.90 4.41 13.24 1.010 1395 Dennis Smith Jr PG
0.922 0.82 0.69 10.40 13.00 0.927 1184 Luke Kornet SF
0.842 0.41 1.18 11.54 12.92 0.842 1153 Isaiah Hartenstein PF
0.869 0.60 0.90 7.80 15.40 0.848 792 Tyler Lydon SF
0.981 0.48 1.00 11.52 17.52 0.984 615 Robert Williams PF
0.871 0.88 0.75 8.05 9.37 0.884 935 Jonathan Isaac SF
0.883 0.47 0.60 10.89 14.45 0.883 304 Kennedy Meeks C
0.983 0.47 1.33 6.31 11.45 0.979 616 Dwayne Bacon SF
0.993 0.34 2.00 5.72 13.79 0.971 417 Grayson Allen SG
0.787 0.40 1.60 11.26 8.25 0.787 698 Omer Yurtseven C
1.000 0.00 2.50 9.82 13.09 #DIV/0! 11 Frank Jackson PG
0.822 1.52 0.50 11.15 10.14 0.822 270 Marques Bolden C
1.286 0.00 2.33 6.00 15.43 #DIV/0! 42 Devonte Graham PG
0.740 0.00 1.00 4.50 27.00 0.740 8 Jaron Blossomgame SF
0.919 0.26 0.44 4.99 7.62 0.986 247 Terrance Ferguson SG
0.907 0.24 2.33 3.32 6.16 0.897 593 Mobius Scholl SF
0.723 1.27 0.75 12.28 5.51 0.723 425 Chris Boucher C
0.881 1.38 1.00 11.08 10.62 0.909 125 DJ Hogg PF
1.025 0.84 0.50 9.21 18.42 1.054 172 Rodions Kurucs SF
0.883 0.00 1.00 12.18 10.52 0.883 254 Ivan Rabb C
1.045 0.95 1.00 5.68 13.26 0.969 68 Alec Peters PF
0.745 1.73 0.33 12.58 5.20 0.745 83 Moses Kingsley PF

[Deleted]

Nigel DA GAWD

[Face-in]

What do you have against De'Aaron Fox?

[Lazy Pete]

Jan 27, 2017 15:53:41 GMT -6 Face-in said:

What do you have against De'Aaron Fox?

If I had to guess,

"BEEP BOOP below average scorer BOOP BOOP BOOP BEEP no shotblocking BEEP BOOP BOOP BEEP"

[eric]

Jan 27, 2017 15:53:41 GMT -6 Face-in said:

What do you have against De'Aaron Fox?

minus scorer with only a tiny bump from 3PR, good ast:tov but not good enough to outweigh the scoring. was middling before the season too. good size and rebounding though, if he starts scoring he could knock off some of those low guys pretty easily.

[Face-in]

I, the original author of the rookie ladder, am getting back in the game next season.

LADDER WARS!

[KwYawnza]

Jan 27, 2017 15:58:42 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

Jan 27, 2017 15:53:41 GMT -6 Face-in said:

What do you have against De'Aaron Fox?

If I had to guess,

"BEEP BOOP below average scorer BOOP BOOP BOOP BEEP no shotblocking BEEP BOOP BOOP BEEP"

He's not shooting 100 percent from the line obviously.

[eric]

day 90 update

.

1. Nigel Hayes - LR #1



The top five guys are pretty much set at this point. They're doing what they do. Nigel is the plus scorer with a modest all around game.

.

2. Justin Patton- LR #3



Justin is the guy who could be a two way big going forwards, or he could be an okay scoring big with poor defense and thus unplayable.

.

3. Caleb Swanigan- LR #2



Caleb is probably the best scorer in the class, but his defense and size are a nonstarter on a championship team.

.

4. Jarrett Allen- LR #4



Jarrett is a great defender who shoots just a hair too much. I'm not sure what you'd even invest in for him, I guess try and squeeze in ancillary d/r attributes and hope he doesn't hit on Inside Scoring in TC.

.

5. Jayson Tatum - LR #5



And Jayson is a solid scorer who doesn't do much else and has a handling problem. I don't see anyone cracking this top five or any of them falling off far enough to let anyone else back their way in, but no one's at stud level yet so going forward it's all going to come down to TC RNG.

.

6. Malik Monk - LR #7



And now we're into the gray area. Three point ratio still likes him as a good scorer. That's enough for him to top this lot, but the gap between five and six is large.

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7. Marques Bolden- LR unranked



Grizzlies have two guys like this, Bam Adebayo was the guy last time. I'm giving Doritos Tacos Locos the nod this time: he's an inch taller, turns it over less, and has A shown potential. It's by no means a wide margin.

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8. Harry Giles - LR #10



Hasn't gotten any better but everyone else has gotten worse so he steps up. His easier path forwards is some sensational Shot Blocking TCs to match his okay scoring, but only a miracle can make him a star, and you can't ride a horse in the Rockies.

.

9. Dillon Brooks - LR unranked



A comeback for the SF/PF. Judging from summer league preseason and now he's got very good Jump Shot and very low Three Point Shot, which is a great mix going forward if he gets even average TC luck. He's also gonna need a lot of help to shore up his rebounding though. High ceiling, low floor.

.

10. Josh Hart - LR unranked



Three point ratio still pegs his efficiency at below average, but he's got good size and rebounding for SG anyway. The volume's obviously a mirage but the attributes that govern efficiency also govern volume so with the right investments he can be a 20 ppg average to good efficiency type down the road. There are worse ceilings.

.

previously ranked
Bam - already mentioned
Sviat and Lauri just fell off too much scoring wise.

[Lazy Pete]

You are a dirty troll

[eric]

Forgot to include the stats. I also decided to sort the unranked by name for ease of perusal.

SPOILER: Click to show

pts/tsa blk/36 ast:tov reb/36 pts/36 xpts/tsa mp Player
1.090 0.44 1.09 6.82 20.76 1.082 1513 Nigel Hayes SF
0.959 1.85 1.43 10.72 16.01 0.963 1550 Justin Patton C
1.079 1.09 0.83 10.64 20.18 1.089 700 Caleb Swanigan C
0.837 3.22 0.92 10.21 10.48 0.837 1528 Jarrett Allen C
1.065 0.69 0.77 7.89 26.86 1.067 2016 Jayson Tatum SF
1.025 0.46 1.29 5.04 14.33 1.069 1821 Malik Monk SG
0.866 1.56 1.00 11.09 10.51 0.866 685 Marques Bolden C
0.952 1.01 1.25 11.66 13.69 0.952 866 Harry Giles PF
0.925 0.87 2.60 6.07 13.45 1.100 166 Dillon Brooks SF
1.062 0.42 1.80 7.18 26.08 1.049 2148 Josh Hart SG
0.964 0.92 1.00 7.38 10.15 0.895 113 Alec Peters PF
0.882 1.87 0.80 11.23 8.64 0.882 1600 Bam Adebayo PF
0.723 1.27 0.75 12.28 5.51 0.723 425 Chris Boucher C
1.009 0.21 2.90 5.90 20.48 1.026 2088 De'Aaron Fox PG
0.989 0.23 2.70 4.32 13.09 0.999 1910 Dennis Smith Jr PG
1.039 0.00 2.67 4.16 13.16 1.039 697 Devonte Graham PG
0.961 0.89 1.00 11.01 13.09 0.986 436 DJ Hogg PF
0.992 0.53 1.00 6.40 11.47 0.987 783 Dwayne Bacon SF
0.948 0.00 2.88 3.38 17.44 1.138 77 Frank Jackson PG
0.956 0.83 2.54 5.21 12.43 1.000 1824 Frank Ntilikina PG
1.006 0.32 1.25 5.68 13.89 0.943 684 Grayson Allen SG
0.876 0.41 1.18 11.00 13.45 0.876 1776 Isaiah Hartenstein PF
0.922 0.00 1.00 12.19 11.61 0.922 360 Ivan Rabb C
0.937 0.00 1.22 7.78 17.51 1.030 74 Jaron Blossomgame SF
0.927 0.64 1.00 8.20 9.10 0.942 1574 Jonathan Isaac SF
0.982 0.53 1.55 7.20 17.89 0.984 2108 Josh Jackson SF
0.883 0.47 0.60 10.89 14.45 0.883 304 Kennedy Meeks C
0.976 0.34 0.82 9.17 14.83 0.978 1972 Lauri Markkanen C
0.971 0.21 3.48 6.12 16.29 0.990 2117 Lonzo Ball PG
0.926 0.81 0.75 10.48 13.16 0.932 1662 Luke Kornet SF
0.967 1.09 1.59 6.22 19.31 0.988 2079 Markelle Fultz PG
0.933 0.23 2.33 3.27 5.84 0.949 955 Mobius Scholl SF
0.909 1.21 0.67 9.71 7.69 0.909 240 Moses Kingsley PF
0.950 0.71 0.80 7.71 19.67 0.934 2272 OG Anunoby SF
0.824 0.40 1.17 11.12 8.90 0.824 1015 Omer Yurtseven C
1.300 0.00 0.00 17.33 17.33 #DIV/0! 8 Peter Jok SG
0.953 0.69 1.00 11.46 16.28 0.955 958 Robert Williams PF
0.976 0.82 1.00 9.82 17.18 0.996 264 Rodions Kurucs SF
0.996 1.14 2.50 4.57 12.57 0.996 214 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk SG
0.919 0.26 0.44 4.99 7.62 0.986 247 Terrance Ferguson SG
0.889 0.42 0.89 7.84 15.25 0.883 1139 Tyler Lydon SF
1.147 0.00 3.00 6.95 24.63 1.101 57 Vince Edwards SF

[Bruns]

3.48 ast:tov! oh wow!