Post by eric on Jun 8, 2017 19:22:59 GMT -6
With the writing on the wall, I thought I'd take a quick glance at the stats and see who our Finals MVP is gonna be.
Kevin Durant is leading all players in points, shooting 56% from the field, 51% from three, and 90% from the line. Barring him literally defecating on the court during game four, he seems a lock to win it.
Steph Curry for his part is 3 assists and 1 rebound(!) shy of averaging a triple double in the Finals, something that has never been done. This means he would need 13 assists and 11 rebounds in game four to accomplish it, which probably won't happen, but still it's pretty remarkable that in the year of the point guard triple double Steph Curry might get the last word.
It's also pretty remarkable that Steph Curry will have two MVPs, two rings, and zero Finals MVPs. He would join Kevin Garnett, David Robinson, Julius Erving, and Dave Cowens as the only MVPs to have a ring without a Finals MVP since 1965, and the only member of that group with two (NBA) MVPs. (Oscar Robertson would be in this group too given he never made the Finals before 1969. Russell certainly would have had one, Pettit and Cousy almost certainly too.)
LeBron is averaging a triple double for the Finals already, and needs only 3 rebounds and 9 assists in game four to maintain it. He is four rebounds behind Kevin Love for leading his own team in points, rebounds, and assists... for the fifth year in a row... when all other players in NBA history have done it twice. He is six points behind Kevin Durant and four assists ahead of Steph Curry to lead both teams in points, rebounds, and assists. It's looking statistically like the best he's ever played in the Finals, but Finals MVP isn't going to a swept team.
But one more point in LeBron's favor are the on/off splits:
and here they are for only players with 20+ mpg:
We all know the Cavs fall apart without James and MAXver, but it's interesting how Durant's middling numbers are going under the radar.
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A lot of these are fine margins that can change more if the series is extended, but I do expect Durant to bring home Finals MVP regardless, and it's not completely without historical precedent. Moses Malone joined a Philadelphia team that had been to three Finals in six years before winning MVP, Wilt Chamberlain joined a Lakers team that had been to five in seven. It doesn't quite match because in both cases neither team had won a championship in those stretches. It's also interesting to consider the relative standing of the players involved: Wilt is certainly ahead of Baylor and West, but Moses and Erving are pretty close and could go either way depending on whom you ask. If Durant wins FMVP, will his 1 and 1 be greater than Steph's 0 and 2? They might have more FMVPs in them and Curry might get one eventually, but the MVP ship has probably sailed for both of them at this point in their careers.
Kevin Durant is leading all players in points, shooting 56% from the field, 51% from three, and 90% from the line. Barring him literally defecating on the court during game four, he seems a lock to win it.
Steph Curry for his part is 3 assists and 1 rebound(!) shy of averaging a triple double in the Finals, something that has never been done. This means he would need 13 assists and 11 rebounds in game four to accomplish it, which probably won't happen, but still it's pretty remarkable that in the year of the point guard triple double Steph Curry might get the last word.
It's also pretty remarkable that Steph Curry will have two MVPs, two rings, and zero Finals MVPs. He would join Kevin Garnett, David Robinson, Julius Erving, and Dave Cowens as the only MVPs to have a ring without a Finals MVP since 1965, and the only member of that group with two (NBA) MVPs. (Oscar Robertson would be in this group too given he never made the Finals before 1969. Russell certainly would have had one, Pettit and Cousy almost certainly too.)
LeBron is averaging a triple double for the Finals already, and needs only 3 rebounds and 9 assists in game four to maintain it. He is four rebounds behind Kevin Love for leading his own team in points, rebounds, and assists... for the fifth year in a row... when all other players in NBA history have done it twice. He is six points behind Kevin Durant and four assists ahead of Steph Curry to lead both teams in points, rebounds, and assists. It's looking statistically like the best he's ever played in the Finals, but Finals MVP isn't going to a swept team.
But one more point in LeBron's favor are the on/off splits:
on/off mp name
41 125 LeBron James
31 110 Stephen Curry
19 15 Patrick McCaw
18 67 Kyle Korver
17 11 Channing Frye
15 94 Draymond Green
10 8 Dahntay Jones
10 8 Derrick Williams
10 16 JaVale McGee
9 82 Andre Iguodala
6 50 Iman Shumpert
5 41 Zaza Pachulia
4 102 Kevin Love
-1 36 Deron Williams
-2 119 Kevin Durant
-3 114 Klay Thompson
-8 6 Matt Barnes
-8 44 Richard Jefferson
-9 6 James Jones
-12 119 Kyrie Irving
-17 30 David West
-18 77 J.R. Smith
-19 39 Ian Clark
-21 67 Tristan Thompson
-22 9 James Michael McAdoo
-27 46 Shaun Livingstonand here they are for only players with 20+ mpg:
on/off mp name
41 125 LeBron James
31 110 Stephen Curry
18 67 Kyle Korver
15 94 Draymond Green
9 82 Andre Iguodala
4 102 Kevin Love
-2 119 Kevin Durant
-3 114 Klay Thompson
-12 119 Kyrie Irving
-18 77 J.R. Smith
-21 67 Tristan ThompsonWe all know the Cavs fall apart without James and MAXver, but it's interesting how Durant's middling numbers are going under the radar.
.
A lot of these are fine margins that can change more if the series is extended, but I do expect Durant to bring home Finals MVP regardless, and it's not completely without historical precedent. Moses Malone joined a Philadelphia team that had been to three Finals in six years before winning MVP, Wilt Chamberlain joined a Lakers team that had been to five in seven. It doesn't quite match because in both cases neither team had won a championship in those stretches. It's also interesting to consider the relative standing of the players involved: Wilt is certainly ahead of Baylor and West, but Moses and Erving are pretty close and could go either way depending on whom you ask. If Durant wins FMVP, will his 1 and 1 be greater than Steph's 0 and 2? They might have more FMVPs in them and Curry might get one eventually, but the MVP ship has probably sailed for both of them at this point in their careers.
