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Post by SPL on Jun 12, 2017 14:42:30 GMT -6
how did so many settle on SPL/Billy King? Is there any reasoning behind it? People don't like BK and I was Mafia last game and this game. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 12, 2017 14:43:52 GMT -6
how did so many settle on SPL/Billy King? Is there any reasoning behind it? Did you read the thread? |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 12, 2017 14:44:31 GMT -6
how did so many settle on SPL/Billy King? Is there any reasoning behind it? People don't like BK and I was Mafia last game and this game. This is incorrect. I chose you via random.org See: the screenshot in my post |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 12, 2017 14:45:26 GMT -6
I have no choice but to pick spl now
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Post by SPL on Jun 12, 2017 14:46:03 GMT -6
start the majority timer and get this moving.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 12, 2017 14:47:22 GMT -6
This is an odd move by SPL, regardless of his true role.
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 12, 2017 14:48:18 GMT -6
Vote count:
5 SPL - 20's, Eric, Heebs, BK, Soup
3 Billy King - fecta, JHB, Tim Pig
2 Heebs - Canes, SPL
1 Fecta - GBG
Yet to vote:
Pete, taco, Delap
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 12, 2017 14:48:44 GMT -6
Not majority fwiw. No timer yet.
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Post by eric on Jun 12, 2017 14:48:47 GMT -6
We need a probability nerd to model out stuff like this. The lack of helpful google results for "optimal strategy cop bodyguard mafia" is frustrating. it can't be modeled because there are eventually human choices. for example, a mafia can choose to claim being the cop on day two. this prompts another choice for the actual cop, as well as a choice for the bodyguard, as well as choices for every civ on whom they believe. you can definitely model the outcome of each of those choices, but without having a relative weight to apply to each choice it doesn't tell you anything. . one thing we can model though is a randomized day one. we have 11 civs, of whom 1 is a cop and 1 is a bodyguard, and 3 mafia if the town does not execute, 100% of the people survive into the night (barring admin kills, another unmodelable) the mafia then selects 1 of 11 non mafia names this results in a dead cop 1/11 * 12/13 of the time (due to the bodyguard) a dead vanilla 9/11 * 12/13 a dead bodyguard and mafia 1/11 * 1/13 (if the bodyguard picks the cop) a dead bodyguard and mafia 9/11 * 1/13 (if the bodyguard picks a vanilla) and a dead bodyguard 1/11 (because a bodyguard can't self guard) total: 1.000 dead civs (.084 cop .161 body), .070 dead mafia . if the town does execute, 3/14 they will execute mafia in the night the numbers change to 1/11 * 11/12, 9/11 * 11/12, 1/11 * 1/12, 9/11 * 1/12, 1/11 9/14 they will execute a vanilla night goes to 1/10 * 11/12, 8/10 * 11/12, 1/10 * 1/12, 8/10 * 1/12, 1/10 1/14 they will execute the cop night 0, 9/10 * 11/12, 0, 9/10 * 1/12, 1/10 1/14 they will execute the bodyguard night 1/10, 9/10, 0, 0, 0 total: 1.786 dead civs (.155 cop .232 body), .284 dead mafia . . thus choosing to execute trades 5.6% of the civilians for 7.1% of the mafia. inflicting disproportionate losses with numerical superiority is a winning strategy. in our case (with a known civ) the math skews even further in our favor |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jun 12, 2017 14:50:25 GMT -6
i read the thread. I'm just surprised after everyone is arguing that things should be random, we're getting two front runner vote candidates
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Post by SPL on Jun 12, 2017 14:51:35 GMT -6
This is an odd move by SPL, regardless of his true role. I believe in what Bobby Knight once said about rape, "When it is inevitable, sit back and enjoy it" |
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Jun 12, 2017 14:53:43 GMT -6
how did so many settle on SPL/Billy King? Is there any reasoning behind it? Billy King, because yeah....you get it. SPL, not sure. Some weird shit with Eric picking him and then everyone bandwagoning? |
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Post by eric on Jun 12, 2017 14:55:21 GMT -6
how did so many settle on SPL/Billy King? Is there any reasoning behind it? here are the claims in time order jhb voted billy for inactivity fecta (billy) for same 20s voted spl at random me (spl) to cause a tie herb (spl) to follow me timpig (billy) out of spite billy (spl) for self preservation soup (spl) had no choice i find soup's to be the most suspicious, given that he had fourteen other choices, but ymmv |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 12, 2017 14:56:47 GMT -6
how did so many settle on SPL/Billy King? Is there any reasoning behind it? here are the claims in time order jhb voted billy for inactivity fecta (billy) for same 20s voted spl at random me (spl) to cause a tie herb (spl) to follow me timpig (billy) out of spite billy (spl) for self preservation soup (spl) had no choice i find soup's to be the most suspicious, given that he had fourteen other choices, but ymmv I believe he means no choice now that SPL has admitted (claimed) to be mafia |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 12, 2017 14:57:11 GMT -6
i read the thread. I'm just surprised after everyone is arguing that things should be random, we're getting two front runner vote candidates Well what I've read on optimal play says in a game it's best for someone to get voted out so at worst just vote randomly.
Since we know the people in the game, I chose a player I think will have the least utility in BK since he came in and said a bunch of very misleading stuff because he wasn't caught up on the thread and wasn't able to be because of his job.
Then SPL admitted he was mafia and said to vote for him which was weird and curried a couple more votes.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 12, 2017 14:59:00 GMT -6
how did so many settle on SPL/Billy King? Is there any reasoning behind it? here are the claims in time order jhb voted billy for inactivity fecta (billy) for same 20s voted spl at random me (spl) to cause a tie herb (spl) to follow me timpig (billy) out of spite billy (spl) for self preservation soup (spl) had no choice i find soup's to be the most suspicious, given that he had fourteen other choices, but ymmv This is missing GBG for Fecta which was the first vote. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 12, 2017 14:59:36 GMT -6
here are the claims in time order jhb voted billy for inactivity fecta (billy) for same 20s voted spl at random me (spl) to cause a tie herb (spl) to follow me timpig (billy) out of spite billy (spl) for self preservation soup (spl) had no choice i find soup's to be the most suspicious, given that he had fourteen other choices, but ymmv I believe he means no choice now that SPL has admitted (claimed) to be mafia Thank you. Good Lord eric was my reasoning not obvious. He admitted to being mafia. |
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Post by eric on Jun 12, 2017 15:00:13 GMT -6
here are the claims in time order jhb voted billy for inactivity fecta (billy) for same 20s voted spl at random me (spl) to cause a tie herb (spl) to follow me timpig (billy) out of spite billy (spl) for self preservation soup (spl) had no choice i find soup's to be the most suspicious, given that he had fourteen other choices, but ymmv This is missing GBG for Fecta which was the first vote. i only included votes for those two the spreadsheet i post tonight will have the complete history |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 12, 2017 15:00:35 GMT -6
If he's a civilian claiming to be mafia I don't understand why he would fuck us over like that.
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Post by Delap on Jun 12, 2017 15:02:51 GMT -6
Nessun sangue sarà sulle mie mani
I will not harm an innocent man
No kill for Day 1
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Post by SPL on Jun 12, 2017 15:02:59 GMT -6
If he's a civilian claiming to be mafia I don't understand why he would fuck us over like that. Because you should trust my word, just like Eric |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 12, 2017 15:03:39 GMT -6
If he's a civilian claiming to be mafia I don't understand why he would fuck us over like that. It doesn't make sense no matter what his role is. It's just weird. He's already lied once as mafia so that honesty thing is out the window. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 12, 2017 15:05:12 GMT -6
If he's a civilian claiming to be mafia I don't understand why he would fuck us over like that. It doesn't make sense no matter what his role is. It's just weird. He's already lied once as mafia so that honesty thing is out the window. Yeah but at least that served a purpose. Lieing as a civ claiming to be mafia is probably the only lie that makes zero sense in this game. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jun 12, 2017 15:06:11 GMT -6
SPL's actions, especially early in these games, are never really clear
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Post by SPL on Jun 12, 2017 15:07:26 GMT -6
It doesn't make sense no matter what his role is. It's just weird. He's already lied once as mafia so that honesty thing is out the window. Yeah but at least that served a purpose. Lieing as a civ claiming to be mafia is probably the only lie that makes zero sense in this game. I have no reason to lie at the moment, I am Mafia, vote me out. |
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Post by Heebs on Jun 12, 2017 15:08:08 GMT -6
i read the thread. I'm just surprised after everyone is arguing that things should be random, we're getting two front runner vote candidates I'd like all civilians to vote for the same random player. Ideally we could do this via a double-blind random selection, but I don't think that's possible without getting too cute. I'd like to trust 20s random list, but it's too easy to just repeat the list until he gets a civilian (assuming he is mafia). Therefore a mafia could "randomly" give us a civilian to lynch. I chose to follow eric because he said he is a civilian and he chose SPL. So that's my best chance to vote "randomly" as part of a civilian coalition. Obviously this is a huge mistake if eric is mafia, but I run that same risk if I follow another person's suggestion, and I'm MORE confident eric is a civilian that the rest of you. There is also an option to have everyone use a random list and just vote what their random list spits out. The issue I'm having with this is that the mafia could "randomly" vote for civilians so that a mafia member that was actually randomly chosen is not lynched. That would, of course, give us good information in the later rounds. Alternatively, if the real civilians that use a random list pile on to a civilian, the mafia could "randomly" vote for other mafia to create a voting record that removes them from suspicion. Between these two possibilities, I don't know how to value the useful information of the former occurrence and the #fakenews of the later occurrence. |
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Post by ANK1990 on Jun 12, 2017 15:11:54 GMT -6
Vote count:
5 SPL - 20's, Eric, Heebs, BK, Soup
3 Billy King - fecta, JHB, Tim Pig
2 Heebs - Canes, SPL
1 Fecta - GBG
1 No Execution - Delap
Yet to vote:
Pete, taco
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Post by SPL on Jun 12, 2017 15:15:27 GMT -6
My mafia teammates are Pete, Taco and Delap btw... get those 3 next.
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 12, 2017 15:16:16 GMT -6
lol there's only 3 mafia.
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Post by SPL on Jun 12, 2017 15:17:03 GMT -6
lol there's only 3 mafia. oh.... Ok Pete and Delap then |
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![[Account Deleted] Avatar](http://storage.proboards.com/5589790/avatar/ZhaFVHTxVPwmyuOiOKEd.png)
