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Post by Odin on Aug 7, 2017 8:49:55 GMT -6
so we're expected to just mindlessly lynch people without any thought about if we are lynching the right people?
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Post by gbgalla24 on Aug 7, 2017 8:53:31 GMT -6
Fecta is showing as online, currently. Hopefully, he will get caught up and share his opinions shortly.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 8:55:04 GMT -6
Probability says we have 2.5 investigative roles. I think whether or not this is a "good" play depends on how many of the randoms got an investigative role. 4 or more and it is probably good. If it's only 2 I feel like it is a mistake. 3 I don't know.
Also gives another day of investigation for the mafia if they have one of those roles.
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Post by Odin on Aug 7, 2017 8:58:42 GMT -6
if people only ever die from night killings and known maf lynchings we would have more than enough time to find everyone.
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Post by Heebs on Aug 7, 2017 9:01:01 GMT -6
so we're expected to just mindlessly lynch people without any thought about if we are lynching the right people? The only support I've seen is "BK says sometimes it's the right move not to lynch anyone early in the game." We have a lot of roles. Some of them are mafia. Some of them are neutral evil. Some of them are benign. Some of them are town. We're going to inevitably wind up killing a town power role. But if we all vote no kill, then the mafia and neutral evil get a free pass today and we don't get any info from how votes go down. I don't think we're (I'm?) mindlessly lynching anyone. So far I've voted for (i) a joke vote to get on the board that I was always changing, (ii) an inactive player to get him active, and (iii) an inactive player to get him active. I feel like one of our business folks should do a SWAT analysis of the no lynch approach. I nominate [Account Deleted] |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 9:01:06 GMT -6
if people only ever die from night killings and known maf lynchings we would have more than enough time to find everyone. what if the investigative roles die? We would have no voting records or any info to use to identify mafia vs town You are relying very heavily on the investigators to get good intel and stay alive. I get how it succeeds, but there is some large risk if it fails. |
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Post by Heebs on Aug 7, 2017 9:02:01 GMT -6
if people only ever die from night killings and known maf lynchings we would have more than enough time to find everyone. Can you prove this? |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 9:02:48 GMT -6
so we're expected to just mindlessly lynch people without any thought about if we are lynching the right people? The only support I've seen is "BK says sometimes it's the right move not to lynch anyone early in the game." We have a lot of roles. Some of them are mafia. Some of them are neutral evil. Some of them are benign. Some of them are town. We're going to inevitably wind up killing a town power role. But if we all vote no kill, then the mafia and neutral evil get a free pass today and we don't get any info from how votes go down. I don't think we're (I'm?) mindlessly lynching anyone. So far I've voted for (i) a joke vote to get on the board that I was always changing, (ii) an inactive player to get him active, and (iii) an inactive player to get him active. I feel like one of our business folks should do a SWAT analysis of the no lynch approach. I nominate [Account Deleted] SWOT analysis lmbo non business plebe |
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Post by Odin on Aug 7, 2017 9:02:56 GMT -6
come on, voting history is about the weakest possible evidence of maf, especially day 1.
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Post by Citizen Cane on Aug 7, 2017 9:02:58 GMT -6
I don't get it to be honest. we saw how valuable investigative roles were last game. No reason to blindly take one out in round one. In this game compared to the old game there is so much to be learned during the night phase that it makes sense not to kill what most likely will be a civ. |
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Post by Heebs on Aug 7, 2017 9:03:01 GMT -6
if people only ever die from night killings and known maf lynchings we would have more than enough time to find everyone. what if the investigative roles die? We would have no voting records or any info to use to identify mafia vs town You are relying very heavily on the investigators to get good intel and stay alive. I get how it succeeds, but there is some large risk if it fails. Like. I get that Odin is thinking outside the box, which I like. But I don't agree with the no lynch approach. It seems like we're giving up one of the most powerful information gathering tools and lose the chance to kill mafia/evil. |
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Post by Heebs on Aug 7, 2017 9:05:11 GMT -6
I don't get it to be honest. we saw how valuable investigative roles were last game. No reason to blindly take one out in round one. In this game compared to the old game there is so much to be learned during the night phase that it makes sense not to kill what most likely will be a civ. We can take out mafia investigative roles. We can take out a mass murderer. We can take out lots of bad shit, too. I agree there is a risk that we kill a power civ day 1. There is also a chance that we don't get any valuable info tonight and/or the mafia kills one of our power roles. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 9:06:06 GMT -6
come on, voting history is about the weakest possible evidence of maf, especially day 1. so you are saying Day 2 you support "mindlessly lynching" someone if we are only going to be missing out on Day 1 votes? Then Day 2 votes just become Day 1 votes. Or are you going to support the no kill strategy every day until the sheriff/investigator finds someone? Not trying to rag on the idea, just trying to flesh out the full plan here |
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Post by Odin on Aug 7, 2017 9:09:57 GMT -6
if people only ever die from night killings and known maf lynchings we would have more than enough time to find everyone. Can you prove this? the less people die during the day the longer the game lasts. idk man. seems pretty straightforward to me. if i have 7 joints i can get high 7 times, unless i smoke half the joint each time then i have 14 excluding joints stolen by roommates (neutral benigns) which is still probably more than 7 times. |
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Post by Odin on Aug 7, 2017 9:11:27 GMT -6
come on, voting history is about the weakest possible evidence of maf, especially day 1. so you are saying Day 2 you support "mindlessly lynching" someone if we are only going to be missing out on Day 1 votes? Then Day 2 votes just become Day 1 votes. Or are you going to support the no kill strategy every day until the sheriff/investigator finds someone? Not trying to rag on the idea, just trying to flesh out the full plan here i think no kill until we have someone is the best play. i don't really know math so i can't math to be sure though. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Aug 7, 2017 9:18:57 GMT -6
As GBG said, if we rest all of our hopes on investigators, it gives mafia a clear opening to deceive the town by posing as that role. The more datapoints we can collect, the better. Voting record is an important part of that.
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Post by Odin on Aug 7, 2017 9:21:02 GMT -6
...investigate anyone who comes forward as an investigator
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Post by Citizen Cane on Aug 7, 2017 9:21:07 GMT -6
come on, voting history is about the weakest possible evidence of maf, especially day 1. so you are saying Day 2 you support "mindlessly lynching" someone if we are only going to be missing out on Day 1 votes? Then Day 2 votes just become Day 1 votes. Or are you going to support the no kill strategy every day until the sheriff/investigator finds someone? Not trying to rag on the idea, just trying to flesh out the full plan here the game falls apart for the mafia when roles start getting determined and it becomes harder for the mafia to hide. I think getting as much night info as possible is a better advantage then taking a blind stab on day one. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 9:26:11 GMT -6
...investigate anyone who comes forward as an investigator then you are wasting your nights and investigations (our only chance to discover mafia in this strategy) on verifying those who come forward as an investigator. Potentially making it take longer before we find any good intel and giving the mafia/neutral evil more free kills |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 9:26:57 GMT -6
If there is an arsonist, more nights probably benefit them the most. They can douse and douse and douse and light without any chance of being executed during the day.
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Post by Heebs on Aug 7, 2017 9:28:55 GMT -6
You guys are too stuck on the possibility (unlikely) of lynching an investigative power role.
We also could lynch evil/mafia. We could lynch the doctor or the bus driver or some other non investigative town role. That will make it harder for the mafia to hide and more likely our investigative roles target mafia.
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Post by Lazy Pete on Aug 7, 2017 9:29:38 GMT -6
so you are saying Day 2 you support "mindlessly lynching" someone if we are only going to be missing out on Day 1 votes? Then Day 2 votes just become Day 1 votes. Or are you going to support the no kill strategy every day until the sheriff/investigator finds someone? Not trying to rag on the idea, just trying to flesh out the full plan here the game falls apart for the mafia when roles start getting determined and it becomes harder for the mafia to hide. I think getting as much night info as possible is a better advantage then taking a blind stab on day one. It worked that way last game because we knew a lot about which roles were in the game, and also because no one did anything to throw doubt on claims once they were made. This game has a lot less certainty since we only know definitely about 3 roles. |
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Post by Heebs on Aug 7, 2017 9:29:50 GMT -6
If there is an arsonist, more nights probably benefit them the most. They can douse and douse and douse and light without any chance of being executed during the day. That would explain pushing for this strategy. One thing is for sure - 20s, Pete, and I are likely not arsonists. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 9:35:03 GMT -6
I don't like how quiet most of the players are being.
Seems like we are only hearing from herb, odin, myself, canes, pete
Soup, bankz, JHB, rv, fecta, delap all silent
TimPig as well but he posted his alibi in advance.
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Post by Citizen Cane on Aug 7, 2017 9:36:23 GMT -6
I don't like how quiet most of the players are being. Seems like we are only hearing from herb, odin, myself, canes, pete Soup, bankz, JHB, rv, fecta, delap all silent TimPig as well but he posted his alibi in advance. it's early enough that I'll give them a pass. but if day 2 rolls around and they are still inactive, they are gonna catch votes. can't let people float |
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Post by Delap on Aug 7, 2017 9:40:03 GMT -6
1. Drop it like its SWOT (I don't know what SWOT is)
2. I suppose there are 4 outcomes where we kill a mafia or neutral evil. There are anywhere from 2-5 (but likely 2 or 3) outcomes where we kill some with investigative power. Bus Driver and Doctor don't seem to be all that important... but other power civs are.
It seems like it is equal chance that we make a good kill or make a bad kill... I'm wary of targeting someone randomly, though, hence my no kill vote.
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Post by Delap on Aug 7, 2017 9:41:24 GMT -6
If we can get a more concrete % on it being slightly more beneficial to kill someone (even at random), I'll switch to one of the inactive fellows (probably fecta or rv)
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Post by Lazy Pete on Aug 7, 2017 9:42:23 GMT -6
I'm telling you, we're gonna get burned if we're counting on investigative power alone to see us through this game
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Post by SPL on Aug 7, 2017 9:44:08 GMT -6
I am around now, had to drop wife off at airport. I do agree with no lynching early and let our investigators find us someone. So I will switch to no vote
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 7, 2017 9:44:23 GMT -6
FectaDEEZ at least get a vote in bro, you were here to accept your trade
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