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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 28, 2017 13:43:23 GMT -6
The unclaimed MCU roles are:
1. Bunk
2. Lester
3. Daniels
4. McNulty
5. Prez
6. Sydnor
7. Carver
We have 4 unknown MCU, 3 unknown maf, and 1 unknown neutral.
Let's say we claim roles and end up with 1 of every role above and two of Bunk, Lester, and McNulty.
That's a 50/50 shot on the 3 doubles (probably, could technically be a maf/neutral or maf/maf combo on one) and then every single claimed role could potentially be mafia bc they claimed the extra role.
It's far from a guaranteed win bc we could lynch MCU today, lose two more MCU at night (prob the verified ones) and then tomorrow it is 3 maf, 4 MCU and one neutral.
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Post by BKay Jewelers on Aug 28, 2017 13:44:23 GMT -6
The unclaimed MCU roles are: 1. Bunk 2. Lester 3. Daniels 4. McNulty 5. Prez 6. Sydnor 7. Carver We have 4 unknown MCU, 3 unknown maf, and 1 unknown neutral. Let's say we claim roles and end up with 1 of every role above and two of Bunk, Lester, and McNulty. That's a 50/50 shot on the 3 doubles (probably, could technically be a maf/neutral or maf/maf combo on one) and then every single claimed role could potentially be mafia bc they claimed the extra role. It's far from a guaranteed win bc we could lynch MCU today, lose two more MCU at night (prob the verified ones) and then tomorrow it is 3 maf, 4 MCU and one neutral. Neutral wouldn't claim town in this case because they win with town. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 28, 2017 13:44:26 GMT -6
How is it a guaranteed win? Play out the scenario for me and if it truly is, I'd jump on board. However, it doesn't seem like it is to me. There is an extra MCU role. All they need to do is claim that role and everyone besides Druce and RV is a potential mafia member again. At that point we have done nothing but provide role clarity to the mafia who already know who they are. How does that help us? 3 mafia, we get a 50% chance each night to kill one. That's not assuming any positive town findings any night. We have more than enough town to survive an incorrect guess 3 times it would take to get all mafia. Fucking duh "We" don't kill at night, the mafia does. And this idea is far from a guaranteed win yet you are pushing hard for it. |
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Post by BKay Jewelers on Aug 28, 2017 13:45:07 GMT -6
3 mafia, we get a 50% chance each night to kill one. That's not assuming any positive town findings any night. We have more than enough town to survive an incorrect guess 3 times it would take to get all mafia. Fucking duh "We" don't kill at night, the mafia does. And this idea is far from a guaranteed win yet you are pushing hard for it. I'm just saying it's the most likely to produce a town win. But we can wait another day or two, idc. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 28, 2017 13:46:33 GMT -6
The unclaimed MCU roles are: 1. Bunk 2. Lester 3. Daniels 4. McNulty 5. Prez 6. Sydnor 7. Carver We have 4 unknown MCU, 3 unknown maf, and 1 unknown neutral. Let's say we claim roles and end up with 1 of every role above and two of Bunk, Lester, and McNulty. That's a 50/50 shot on the 3 doubles (probably, could technically be a maf/neutral or maf/maf combo on one) and then every single claimed role could potentially be mafia bc they claimed the extra role. It's far from a guaranteed win bc we could lynch MCU today, lose two more MCU at night (prob the verified ones) and then tomorrow it is 3 maf, 4 MCU and one neutral. Neutral wouldn't claim town in this case because they win with town. They win by being alive at the end. It doesn't matter who wins. They do help the town though but if they reveal themselves their power is worthless bc the mafia wouldn't target Omar at night if they know he will kill them. Bubbles coming out would be dumb too bc then the mafia wouldn't waste a night target on him either. It is to the town's advantage for the neutral to remain a mystery because they can only hinder the mafia at night. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Aug 28, 2017 14:10:06 GMT -6
However, I think Pete is mafia. He was quick to protect Fecta when I tried to get people to switch by revealing to be Kima and figured out the exact scenario that happened with the deaths real fast. I understand Pete is good at this game so that could be it as well but just wanted to put it out there. My feeling on it was that a. you could be lying, so we shouldn't assume you are Kima just because you said you were. b. there was a decent chance that Fecta wouldn't be mafia, in which case if we voted him out, we could've potentially lost a civ role more valuable to town than yours. c. if you were telling the truth, it would mean that the mafia could either take you out at night, nullifying one of their kills on someone who would've been dead in any other situation, or that you would survive to the next day and now we know for sure that you are who you say you are. It was as good a vote as going no execution in round 1, and gave us better info because it confirmed a civ for us. Given how many mafia got killed on night 1, I think it put us in a better shape having only lost one civ. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Aug 28, 2017 14:12:40 GMT -6
I think it's a bad idea to reveal roles right now. We lost our bodyguard. Mafia could have some sort of escort role. No need to out our cop. I think the only escort in the game on the mafia side was Ziggy aka Fecta, so we should be clear of that from a town perspective. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Aug 28, 2017 14:18:52 GMT -6
I think it's a bad idea to reveal roles right now. We lost our bodyguard. Mafia could have some sort of escort role. No need to out our cop. I think the only escort in the game on the mafia side was Ziggy aka Fecta, so we should be clear of that from a town perspective. Gotcha. Yeah I just re-read the op. I thought moth gangs had mirroring roles. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Aug 28, 2017 14:25:28 GMT -6
Until people start showing up and talking I'm gonna vote timpig
He likes to hide in the game from time to time and that's come back to bite us in the ass before.
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Post by Heebs on Aug 28, 2017 14:35:06 GMT -6
Until people start showing up and talking I'm gonna vote timpigHe likes to hide in the game from time to time and that's come back to bite us in the ass before. Same for Bankz. Speak up, or get lynched folks. |
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Post by skrouse on Aug 28, 2017 14:37:20 GMT -6
timpig sounds good to me
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Post by Souper Troopers on Aug 28, 2017 14:43:57 GMT -6
Until people start showing up and talking I'm gonna vote timpigHe likes to hide in the game from time to time and that's come back to bite us in the ass before. Same for Bankz. Speak up, or get lynched folks. Fucked I missed a chance to vote bankz. For some reason I though he weighed in already. |
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Post by skrouse on Aug 28, 2017 14:46:29 GMT -6
Same for Bankz. Speak up, or get lynched folks. Fucked I missed a chance to vote bankz. For some reason I though he weighed in already. bankz voted for delap, I assume he's a civ, but that's not going on much |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Aug 28, 2017 14:47:48 GMT -6
Fucked I missed a chance to vote bankz. For some reason I though he weighed in already. bankz voted for delap, I assume he's a civ, but that's not going on much It could mean that. But many many times mafia have voted for their own to try and throw off the scent. |
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Post by Heebs on Aug 28, 2017 14:48:55 GMT -6
Fucked I missed a chance to vote bankz. For some reason I though he weighed in already. bankz voted for delap, I assume he's a civ, but that's not going on much That was round 1. There are two mafias. Bankz could be in the other one. I forget which is which and am too lazy to look. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Aug 28, 2017 14:49:21 GMT -6
day 1 votes are particularly unreliable, as they're always a free for all and mafia can cast votes for each other without much fear of sending a teammate to the gallows.
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Post by Heebs on Aug 28, 2017 14:49:56 GMT -6
for the record I'm not saying Bankz is mafia because I don't have a clue.
I just want that lippy little Sicilian to participate. It's more fun that way.
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Post by TimPig on Aug 28, 2017 14:51:58 GMT -6
Sorry for the inactivity, went to lunch and then had a couple of work calls.
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Post by skrouse on Aug 28, 2017 14:53:40 GMT -6
I get that, 'tis why i said it wasn't much, we did have a night cycle before the first vote though. could of had intel
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Post by TimPig on Aug 28, 2017 14:56:36 GMT -6
We're in pretty damn good shape here, right? Three mafia and only one town dead on night one?
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Post by Majic on Aug 28, 2017 15:04:47 GMT -6
just a heads up.. leaving work and will be running errands
should be able to hop and vote before the deadline
I will be following the word of RV and Druce as they should lead us as civs
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Post by 20s Navidad on Aug 28, 2017 15:05:50 GMT -6
We're in pretty damn good shape here, right? Three mafia and only one town dead on night one? such insight wow |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Aug 28, 2017 15:06:50 GMT -6
We're in pretty damn good shape here, right? Three mafia and only one town dead on night one? such insight wow Lol. Like. |
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Post by TimPig on Aug 28, 2017 15:09:15 GMT -6
Thanks guys let me know how else I can help.
Gumshoe TimPig is on the case.
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Post by Lazy Pete on Aug 28, 2017 15:10:06 GMT -6
just a heads up.. leaving work and will be running errands should be able to hop and vote before the deadline I will be following the word of RV and Druce as they should lead us as civs One thing to keep in mind, while we know RV and Druce are not attempting to deceive us since they're confirmed town, we should also be wary of blindly supporting them just because they're confirmed. They could be acting in the best intention but still have a wrong theory or bad guess. It's more helpful if we work together to come up with some good options and they can weigh in on our options or suggest new ones on their own. |
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Post by Heebs on Aug 28, 2017 15:16:43 GMT -6
Anyone have the votes for day 2? eric ? |
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rv12
Full Member
Posts: 193
Likes: 8
Joined: January 2017
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Post by rv12 on Aug 28, 2017 15:18:37 GMT -6
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Post by eric on Aug 28, 2017 15:25:30 GMT -6
2 timpig - skrouse, soup
1 20s - billy
1 bankz - herb
not yet voted - 20s bankz druce majic pete rv timpig
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Post by BKay Jewelers on Aug 28, 2017 15:26:52 GMT -6
i'll go ahead and reveal my role im gandalf
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Post by TimPig on Aug 28, 2017 15:32:12 GMT -6
i'll go ahead and reveal my role im gandalf Laughed pretty hard at this. |
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