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Post by BKay Jewelers on Sept 28, 2017 8:49:18 GMT -6
Every post 20s since earlier has been lowering his % chance. Apparently it's odd for him to talk so much this early if he is mafia.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 8:49:34 GMT -6
Based on...? People trying to make the claims that someone else is mafia at this point when we have zero info is suspect. we are in to the second day, there has been a night.. so to say we have 0 info to go on is a bit of a stretch So why are you accusing pete, JHB, or myself of being mafia? If you are going to throw people under the bus and claim it is based on more than "no info", you should be posting the information/reasoning behind your claim. |
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Post by Delap on Sept 28, 2017 8:49:59 GMT -6
All I've said this round is that I don't want a timer so we can have everyone check in so if I'm mafia that must mean Majic is one of my cohorts because he's saying the same thing. Fucking Gumshoe Majic to the rescue. hey i didnt say you, i said one of you i feel like could be also im trying to drive discussion because everyone voting No Execution and having no discussion doesnt help us for future days Not necessarily. We can glean information from those who get bussed. Each night, we potentially have other power town roles that can help get information. Discussion rarely leads to real information. The best information comes from night moves and research. Whoever killed Odin knows how it happened, so there is valuable information right there. The bus driver could possibly have information. We can have several investigative type roles. No need to splurge and reveal information right now. I voted for a kill on Day 1 because a 3/8 chance on hitting a mafia seems like a good shot to me (given the set-up). I vote no execution today because those odds are down to 1/3, which isn't as good. Allow investigators to work, keep our days as clean as possible while we have no information. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Sept 28, 2017 8:52:28 GMT -6
No execution (7) - Canes, Skrouse, RV, Timpig, Delap, Druce, GBG
20s - bk
JHB - Heebs
Yet to vote - Majic, 20s, Fecta, Pete, JHB, Spl
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 8:52:44 GMT -6
3/8 is 37.5%. 1/3 is 33.3%.
That 4.2% decrease was huge for delap.
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Post by Lazy Pete on Sept 28, 2017 8:52:48 GMT -6
I'm with y'all on the discussion but what would you like to discuss at this point? We're aware now that there's a bus driver and we've got one mafia down. Here's the summary:
Goon - Odin
Mafia
Mafia
Mafia
Town Investigative
Bus Driver
Town Killing
Town Random
Town Random
Town Random
Town Random
Town Random
Town Random
Town Random
Neutral
Neutral
I think it's reasonable to assume that Odin died making the hit, since as a vanilla mafia he would be the most expendable. It's not a guarantee and his death could've come from some of the other scenarios delap mentioned, but I think it's most likely a granny or veteran.
Also, if we believe Odin was the hitter, i think we can rule out Janitor and Hitman from the mafia members. The mafia would typically use a janitor early to create as much confusion as possible, and the hitman is required to make mafia hits so Odin wouldn't have been the guy in that case.
Has anyone been silenced?
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 8:55:36 GMT -6
I'm with y'all on the discussion but what would you like to discuss at this point? We're aware now that there's a bus driver and we've got one mafia down. Here's the summary: Goon - OdinMafia Mafia Mafia Town Investigative Bus Driver Town Killing Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Neutral Neutral I think it's reasonable to assume that Odin died making the hit, since as a vanilla mafia he would be the most expendable. It's not a guarantee and his death could've come from some of the other scenarios delap mentioned, but I think it's most likely a granny or veteran. Also, if we believe Odin was the hitter, i think we can rule out Janitor and Hitman from the mafia members. The mafia would typically use a janitor early to create as much confusion as possible, and the hitman is required to make mafia hits so Odin wouldn't have been the guy in that case. Has anyone been silenced? I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny. |
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Post by BKay Jewelers on Sept 28, 2017 8:57:33 GMT -6
Granny/vet shouldn't come forward because we could still have neutral evils that don't know who they are.
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Post by Delap on Sept 28, 2017 8:58:42 GMT -6
3/8 is 37.5%. 1/3 is 33.3%. That 4.2% decrease was huge for delap. Yup. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Sept 28, 2017 8:58:48 GMT -6
I'm with y'all on the discussion but what would you like to discuss at this point? We're aware now that there's a bus driver and we've got one mafia down. Here's the summary: Goon - OdinMafia Mafia Mafia Town Investigative Bus Driver Town Killing Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Neutral Neutral I think it's reasonable to assume that Odin died making the hit, since as a vanilla mafia he would be the most expendable. It's not a guarantee and his death could've come from some of the other scenarios delap mentioned, but I think it's most likely a granny or veteran. Also, if we believe Odin was the hitter, i think we can rule out Janitor and Hitman from the mafia members. The mafia would typically use a janitor early to create as much confusion as possible, and the hitman is required to make mafia hits so Odin wouldn't have been the guy in that case. Has anyone been silenced? I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny. Can someone remind me how the bus driver interacts w/ granny or veteran? Bus driver would die if they switched the granny, right? |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Sept 28, 2017 9:00:31 GMT -6
I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny. Can someone remind me how the bus driver interacts w/ granny or veteran? Bus driver would die if they switched the granny, right? I think Tim died when he visited JHB when Tim was the BD and JHB was the vet in the first game the bus driver was introduced. |
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Post by SPL on Sept 28, 2017 9:01:02 GMT -6
I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny. Can someone remind me how the bus driver interacts w/ granny or veteran? Bus driver would die if they switched the granny, right? he is not night immune so he would die |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 9:01:21 GMT -6
Granny/vet shouldn't come forward because we could still have neutral evils that don't know who they are. This is true, didn't really consider that. However there are definitively more town roles that could visit them than neutral evils so it's more likely they kill power civs at this point. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 9:02:10 GMT -6
That was supposed to be definitely not definitively
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Sept 28, 2017 9:02:10 GMT -6
What information would the bus driver have, Majic?
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Post by Druce on Sept 28, 2017 9:02:36 GMT -6
So based on that, if there is a granny the potential for them to harm us unknowingly is a lot greater than the negative effect of a neutral knowing who they are yes?
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Post by SPL on Sept 28, 2017 9:02:52 GMT -6
I'm with y'all on the discussion but what would you like to discuss at this point? We're aware now that there's a bus driver and we've got one mafia down. Here's the summary: Goon - OdinMafia Mafia Mafia Town Investigative Bus Driver Town Killing Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Town Random Neutral Neutral I think it's reasonable to assume that Odin died making the hit, since as a vanilla mafia he would be the most expendable. It's not a guarantee and his death could've come from some of the other scenarios delap mentioned, but I think it's most likely a granny or veteran. Also, if we believe Odin was the hitter, i think we can rule out Janitor and Hitman from the mafia members. The mafia would typically use a janitor early to create as much confusion as possible, and the hitman is required to make mafia hits so Odin wouldn't have been the guy in that case. Has anyone been silenced? I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny.
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 9:03:59 GMT -6
Majic still hasn't provided any reasoning for claiming 3 of the historically high value players are mafia (or at least one of the 3).
#vote majic
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Post by Delap on Sept 28, 2017 9:05:12 GMT -6
I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny.
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
Just because you are the oldest guy here doesn't make you a Granny. Eric wishes he was a Grannis, though. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Sept 28, 2017 9:05:47 GMT -6
I don't buy that
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Post by Druce on Sept 28, 2017 9:05:51 GMT -6
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
Just because you are the oldest guy here doesn't make you a Granny. Eric wishes he was a Grannis, though. you beat me to the joke lol |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 9:06:36 GMT -6
I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny.
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
would the granny be told if he is visited and kills someone? |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 9:06:44 GMT -6
I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny.
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
would the granny be told if he is visited and kills someone? |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Sept 28, 2017 9:06:53 GMT -6
I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny.
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
Can you point to a post on day 1 where you tried to come off like you had an investigative role? I just looked through them and don't see anything indicating that |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Sept 28, 2017 9:14:26 GMT -6
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
would the granny be told if he is visited and kills someone? No he is not. |
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Post by Souper Troopers on Sept 28, 2017 9:15:37 GMT -6
I’m trying to roll with less info being told on regards to visits/moves. Hopefully it doesn’t backfire.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 9:18:30 GMT -6
Odin had to be the hitter right and he died on Granny? Right? I think Odin was hitter, they tried to hit Granny. Neutral evil is an arsonist? If we have an arsonist, it will be pretty dangerous to leave him out there for extra nights. I don't think it's a granny because they would have come forward by now. If the mafia died trying to hit a granny, they already know who it is and won't be visiting them again. Therefore, the only possible damage the granny could still cause is killing someone town aligned who is visiting them because they do not know they are the granny.
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
This posting history culminating with him claiming to be the granny has me thinking SPL might be arsonist. But that would almost be too obvious. |
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Post by SPL on Sept 28, 2017 9:18:32 GMT -6
I feel Odin died on a hit on me. On day 1, I tried to come off like I had an investigative role to try and draw a hit from the mafia. I am the Granny.
Can you point to a post on day 1 where you tried to come off like you had an investigative role? I just looked through them and don't see anything indicating that why the vote on GBG back to more times than not he is mafia?
CanesIm bitter he got Chauncey for so cheap. is that really why you voted on him? I have a nagging hunch that Billy is not actually a vanilla civ. what makes you think that? I also think if he turns out to be mafia, I look terrible for not voting for him. My day 1 votes almost always go to inactive players, therefore I am fine with Canes. It is day 1, if we are voting, none of us (other than the mafia) have any idea on who is mafia or not. Not all of us are Dr bunch of hunches. To pile on a vote does us nothing and basically loses the town a day of their voting. However, putting votes in play where decisions have to be made can potentially tell us something. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Sept 28, 2017 9:19:06 GMT -6
Souper Troopers would the granny be told if he is visited and kills someone? No he is not. Ok, so SPL might be telling the truth. I will believe him. |
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Post by BKay Jewelers on Sept 28, 2017 9:20:33 GMT -6
I'll believe spl for now as well
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