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Post by [Account Deleted] on Aug 14, 2014 9:48:04 GMT -6
As of Trade #291, 14 draft picks for the 3006 Draft Class have exchanged hands. This article will take a look at those picks and identify which ones are the most likely to turn into valuable young players for the GM's that now own them. I've broken these picks up into tiers and tried to take a look at the original team's winning percentage, point differential, strength of schedule, and some other subjective criteria to project which picks will be most likely to be earlier in the draft. If I have time, I may make this an article that I publish again at the All-Star Break.
Essentially worthless late 1st rounders
These are the picks that are likely to fall in the 25-29 range where taking on a rookie is just going to tie up a couple of million in cap for at least three years rather than having a good chance to turn into a decent player.
14. Mavericks (1st rounder) to Celtics via Kings
Winning%: .857
Differential: 15.9 (4th best)
SOS: 15th (Opp Win % of .478)
Barring disastrous injuries to one or two of Larry Kenon, Maurice Lucas, Rick Barry, and David Thompson, I expect Soup to continue his regular season dominance based on exceptional early game results and an outstanding point differential against a league average schedule. His combination of talent, results, and shrewdness will ensure this pick isn't worth much. Congratulations to GM Dumptime and his family for owning this pick.
T-12. Grizzlies (1st rounder) to Thunder
Winning %: .800
Differential: 16.6 (3rd best)
SOS: 17th (Opp Win % of .474)
The defending champions have reloaded nicely after losing some key pieces and look to contend with the Lakers for the Pacific division title again. Bobby "I Suck" Jones, Billy Knight, and Don Buse make up an outstanding trio on the perimeter and super-efficient sub Marques Johnson does a nice job of providing spark off the bench. Based on their results so far against an average schedule, expect them to continue to put up excellent results.
T-12. Lakers (1st rounder) to Jazz via Mavericks via Raptors
Winning %: .857
Differential: 13.6 (7th best)
SOS: 11th (Opp Win % of 50.8%)
The Lakers are my favorite to win the Pacific Division this season, but really the only reason I have them tied with the Grizzlies right now because I didn't want to count out the defending champion so soon. This is a very good team that's loaded on the perimeter and really can't seem to find a fit for the exceptional talents of Bob McAdoo and Brian Winters. After an off-season where he convinced his FA's they were agreeing on salary figures in Euros or something, I think Buster will continue to do what it takes to ensure that the Jazz struggle to find a future starter with this pick.
11. Hawks (1st rounder) to Magic via Clippers
Winning %: .833
Differential: 9.5 (8th best)
SOS: 20th (Opp Win % of .457)
I think the Hawks team has regressed a little based on his point differential against an early season schedule that ranks in the league's weakest third. The only reason I have them here is that it seems the Central in general is down, with the Bulls and Pacers aging rapidly and the Pistons attempting a mini-rebuild. I still think the Hawks when this division, and thus make the pick worthless. However, I anticipate that I could change this opinion between now and the All-Star Break because he is competing against much more capable GM's.
Most likely in the early 20's
10. Timberwolves (1st rounder) to Magic
Winning %: .667
Differential: 15.1 (6th best)
SOS: 29th (Opp Win % of .319)
Just looking at the numbers, the early season Timberwolves results look like the product of beating up on bad teams. I don't know if that's necessarily representative of the truth, since he played some quality opponents but had three of the bottom feeders in the first sim as well. I think this team is still tremendously talented and will compete with the top teams in the West, but at the end of the day, I think this pick definitely falls before 25.
9. Trailblazers (1st rounder) to Clippers via Warriors
Winning %: .714
Differential: 18.6 (2nd best)
SOS: 14th (Opp Win % of .480)
The Trailblazers have come roaring out of the gate this season, putting up some impressive early season results, especially in the point differential column. That may be a product of beating up on the Cavaliers and Thunder early, so I don't think they continue to outperform Pacific foes like the Grizzlies and Lakers in that regard. This is and has been a very good team, I just don't think it has the depth of quality talent on the perimeter to stay at the very top of the Western Conference with teams like the Mavs, Lakers, and Grizzlies.
8. Bulls (1st rounder) to Magic via Bucks
Winning %: .714
Differential: 6.2 (11th)
SOS: 22nd (Opp Win % of .439)
I think the Bulls age and cap situation may finally be wearing on them. So far in the season, they've put up a slightly better than average point differential against one of the league's weaker schedules. I think they still can compete for the division title, but at this point their better days are likely behind them with this core.
Potentially late teens if lucky, but likely early 20's
7. Kings (1st rounder) to Thunder
Winning %: .286
Differential: 3.7 (15th best)
SOS: 1st (Opp Win % of .679)
With a bunch of close losses and a murderer's row schedule to start off the season, I think the Kings are likely to bounce back from this rough start and still put together a good season, I just think it's more likely they finish at the bottom of the playoff table for now. They have some good players, but give Chuck another season or two to continue to emerge and then this team is a true contender.
6. Pistons (1st rounder) to Grizzlies via Kings
Winning %: .625
Differential: 5.5 (12th best)
SOS: 24th (Opp Win % of .439)
A lot of people still believe in this team, but I personally don't think it's ready yet. He gave away a lot of production trading away Caldwell Jones and Leon Douglas, and I just don't think their replacements are there yet. This team will bounce back nicely in the next couple of seasons, and you can never count out Paul Westphal and Rain Man. But I don't think this team as currently constructed is a top half of the Eastern Conference team this season.
Will probably fall outside of lottery, but still have lottery potential
5. Pacers (1st rounder) to Thunder via Clippers via Magic via Timberwolves via Mavericks
Winning %: .500
Differential: -3.9 (21st)
SOS: 6th (Opp Win % of .552)
Indiana had a rough start to the season and (as the owner of this pick) is hopefully starting to show signs of aging from its key pieces. Wilkes seems to have regressed. However, there are too many quality starters on this team and they've played too tough of a schedule so far to count them out as a playoff team in the East. However, I don't think they'll be a top team because of the depth of their conference and division.
4. Celtics (1st rounder) to Supersonics
Winning %: .143
Differential: -4.4 (23rd)
SOS: 3rd (Opp Win % of .640)
I think the Celtics had an offseason a lot like the Pistons in that he got younger and added quality young players, but he severely compromised his ability to compete now. I think he still bounces back and performs better after a tough early-season schedule, but this team is not ready to compete, doesn't play defense, and likely will yield a late lottery pick for Ved and the Sonics.
Extremely valuable, likely lottery picks
3. Hornets (1st rounder) to Nuggets
Winning %: .500
Differential: 0.1 (19th)
SOS: 8th (.526)
I don't think much of this team and I think it's likely Williamson gets moved in-season so that RV can gets some assets and begin looking toward the future.
2. Suns (1st rounder) to Jazz via Grizzlies
Winning %: .500
Differential: -1.7 (20th)
SOS: 13th (Opp Win % of .489)
Ankly's players are too young and every move that Ankly makes is dumber than his last one so far in 4.0. Congratulations to the Jazz on their multiple lotto picks.
1. Clippers (1st rounder) to Warriors via Grizzlies
Winning %: .429
Differential: -8.1 (24th)
SOS: 27th (Opp Win % of .415)
The Clippers have the worst point differential of any team that is not obviously tanking and they've done it against what has so far been the league's third easiest schedule. Devine would be wise not to trade this pick as it could be an acceptable substitute for him ruining his own ability to continue to tank this season in a draft class that's at least 5 deep in terms of quality prospects.
Essentially worthless late 1st rounders
These are the picks that are likely to fall in the 25-29 range where taking on a rookie is just going to tie up a couple of million in cap for at least three years rather than having a good chance to turn into a decent player.
14. Mavericks (1st rounder) to Celtics via Kings
Winning%: .857
Differential: 15.9 (4th best)
SOS: 15th (Opp Win % of .478)
Barring disastrous injuries to one or two of Larry Kenon, Maurice Lucas, Rick Barry, and David Thompson, I expect Soup to continue his regular season dominance based on exceptional early game results and an outstanding point differential against a league average schedule. His combination of talent, results, and shrewdness will ensure this pick isn't worth much. Congratulations to GM Dumptime and his family for owning this pick.
T-12. Grizzlies (1st rounder) to Thunder
Winning %: .800
Differential: 16.6 (3rd best)
SOS: 17th (Opp Win % of .474)
The defending champions have reloaded nicely after losing some key pieces and look to contend with the Lakers for the Pacific division title again. Bobby "I Suck" Jones, Billy Knight, and Don Buse make up an outstanding trio on the perimeter and super-efficient sub Marques Johnson does a nice job of providing spark off the bench. Based on their results so far against an average schedule, expect them to continue to put up excellent results.
T-12. Lakers (1st rounder) to Jazz via Mavericks via Raptors
Winning %: .857
Differential: 13.6 (7th best)
SOS: 11th (Opp Win % of 50.8%)
The Lakers are my favorite to win the Pacific Division this season, but really the only reason I have them tied with the Grizzlies right now because I didn't want to count out the defending champion so soon. This is a very good team that's loaded on the perimeter and really can't seem to find a fit for the exceptional talents of Bob McAdoo and Brian Winters. After an off-season where he convinced his FA's they were agreeing on salary figures in Euros or something, I think Buster will continue to do what it takes to ensure that the Jazz struggle to find a future starter with this pick.
11. Hawks (1st rounder) to Magic via Clippers
Winning %: .833
Differential: 9.5 (8th best)
SOS: 20th (Opp Win % of .457)
I think the Hawks team has regressed a little based on his point differential against an early season schedule that ranks in the league's weakest third. The only reason I have them here is that it seems the Central in general is down, with the Bulls and Pacers aging rapidly and the Pistons attempting a mini-rebuild. I still think the Hawks when this division, and thus make the pick worthless. However, I anticipate that I could change this opinion between now and the All-Star Break because he is competing against much more capable GM's.
Most likely in the early 20's
10. Timberwolves (1st rounder) to Magic
Winning %: .667
Differential: 15.1 (6th best)
SOS: 29th (Opp Win % of .319)
Just looking at the numbers, the early season Timberwolves results look like the product of beating up on bad teams. I don't know if that's necessarily representative of the truth, since he played some quality opponents but had three of the bottom feeders in the first sim as well. I think this team is still tremendously talented and will compete with the top teams in the West, but at the end of the day, I think this pick definitely falls before 25.
9. Trailblazers (1st rounder) to Clippers via Warriors
Winning %: .714
Differential: 18.6 (2nd best)
SOS: 14th (Opp Win % of .480)
The Trailblazers have come roaring out of the gate this season, putting up some impressive early season results, especially in the point differential column. That may be a product of beating up on the Cavaliers and Thunder early, so I don't think they continue to outperform Pacific foes like the Grizzlies and Lakers in that regard. This is and has been a very good team, I just don't think it has the depth of quality talent on the perimeter to stay at the very top of the Western Conference with teams like the Mavs, Lakers, and Grizzlies.
8. Bulls (1st rounder) to Magic via Bucks
Winning %: .714
Differential: 6.2 (11th)
SOS: 22nd (Opp Win % of .439)
I think the Bulls age and cap situation may finally be wearing on them. So far in the season, they've put up a slightly better than average point differential against one of the league's weaker schedules. I think they still can compete for the division title, but at this point their better days are likely behind them with this core.
Potentially late teens if lucky, but likely early 20's
7. Kings (1st rounder) to Thunder
Winning %: .286
Differential: 3.7 (15th best)
SOS: 1st (Opp Win % of .679)
With a bunch of close losses and a murderer's row schedule to start off the season, I think the Kings are likely to bounce back from this rough start and still put together a good season, I just think it's more likely they finish at the bottom of the playoff table for now. They have some good players, but give Chuck another season or two to continue to emerge and then this team is a true contender.
6. Pistons (1st rounder) to Grizzlies via Kings
Winning %: .625
Differential: 5.5 (12th best)
SOS: 24th (Opp Win % of .439)
A lot of people still believe in this team, but I personally don't think it's ready yet. He gave away a lot of production trading away Caldwell Jones and Leon Douglas, and I just don't think their replacements are there yet. This team will bounce back nicely in the next couple of seasons, and you can never count out Paul Westphal and Rain Man. But I don't think this team as currently constructed is a top half of the Eastern Conference team this season.
Will probably fall outside of lottery, but still have lottery potential
5. Pacers (1st rounder) to Thunder via Clippers via Magic via Timberwolves via Mavericks
Winning %: .500
Differential: -3.9 (21st)
SOS: 6th (Opp Win % of .552)
Indiana had a rough start to the season and (as the owner of this pick) is hopefully starting to show signs of aging from its key pieces. Wilkes seems to have regressed. However, there are too many quality starters on this team and they've played too tough of a schedule so far to count them out as a playoff team in the East. However, I don't think they'll be a top team because of the depth of their conference and division.
4. Celtics (1st rounder) to Supersonics
Winning %: .143
Differential: -4.4 (23rd)
SOS: 3rd (Opp Win % of .640)
I think the Celtics had an offseason a lot like the Pistons in that he got younger and added quality young players, but he severely compromised his ability to compete now. I think he still bounces back and performs better after a tough early-season schedule, but this team is not ready to compete, doesn't play defense, and likely will yield a late lottery pick for Ved and the Sonics.
Extremely valuable, likely lottery picks
3. Hornets (1st rounder) to Nuggets
Winning %: .500
Differential: 0.1 (19th)
SOS: 8th (.526)
I don't think much of this team and I think it's likely Williamson gets moved in-season so that RV can gets some assets and begin looking toward the future.
2. Suns (1st rounder) to Jazz via Grizzlies
Winning %: .500
Differential: -1.7 (20th)
SOS: 13th (Opp Win % of .489)
Ankly's players are too young and every move that Ankly makes is dumber than his last one so far in 4.0. Congratulations to the Jazz on their multiple lotto picks.
1. Clippers (1st rounder) to Warriors via Grizzlies
Winning %: .429
Differential: -8.1 (24th)
SOS: 27th (Opp Win % of .415)
The Clippers have the worst point differential of any team that is not obviously tanking and they've done it against what has so far been the league's third easiest schedule. Devine would be wise not to trade this pick as it could be an acceptable substitute for him ruining his own ability to continue to tank this season in a draft class that's at least 5 deep in terms of quality prospects.
