Post by eric on Mar 7, 2015 15:54:21 GMT -6
Win Shares are pretty easy to calculate. All you need to do is...
...and when we do that for the 3013 season with box scores helpfully provided by Ankly (h/t), we get a top ten of...
...which correlates pretty well with the regular season awards given. From top to bottom, we have three 1s, one null, two 3s, a fourth 1, one more 3 and two more nulls. Some of this comes down to position: Greg Oden did lead PFs in WS, it just so happens that the highest PF in WS was 23rd.
Unfortunately the soft-ware doesn't keep track of offensive and defensive rebounds so those were estimated with 30%. Also unfortunately our league has a much wider disparity in best / worst than real life, which the formalism isn't really meant to handle, so we got results like the Timberwolves amassing negative 42 Win Shares and the Rockets amassing 85. These things happen. Overall, though, we got 1209 Win Shares, and Win Shares in general tends to overshoot by the number of teams, so 1209 - 29 = 1190 ~= 1189 = 29 * 82 / 2. Boom.
As a final note, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to get any more dump bucks this season from articles, but please rate anyway so I can see if this is something people are interested in.
Full list of Win Shares below by name, and please note that these combine all teams a player was on:
ScPoss = (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part
FG_Part = FGM * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
qAST = ((MP / (Team_MP / 5)) * (1.14 * ((Team_AST - AST) / Team_FGM))) + ((((Team_AST / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - AST) / ((Team_FGM / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - FGM)) * (1 - (MP / (Team_MP / 5))))
AST_Part = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
FT_Part = (1-(1-(FTM/FTA))^2)*0.4*FTA
Team_Scoring_Poss = Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * Team_FTA * 0.4
Team_ORB_Weight = ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play%) / ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play% + Team_ORB% * (1 - Team_Play%))
Team_ORB% = Team_ORB / (Team_ORB + (Opponent_TRB - Opponent_ORB))
Team_Play% = Team_Scoring_Poss / (Team_FGA + Team_FTA * 0.4 + Team_TOV)
ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%
FGxPoss = (FGA - FGM) * (1 - 1.07 * Team_ORB%)
FTxPoss = ((1 - (FTM / FTA))^2) * 0.4 * FTA
TotPoss = ScPoss + FGxPoss + FTxPoss + TOV
PProd = (PProd_FG_Part + PProd_AST_Part + FTM) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + PProd_ORB_Part
PProd_FG_Part = 2 * (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
PProd_AST_Part = 2 * ((Team_FGM - FGM + 0.5 * (Team_3PM - 3PM)) / (Team_FGM - FGM)) * 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
PProd_ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% * (Team_PTS / (Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * 0.4 * Team_FTA))
Stops = Stops1 + Stops2
Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP
+ (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2
Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)
DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)
Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)
D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)
Team_Possessions
Team_O_Possessions (check)
...and when we do that for the 3013 season with box scores helpfully provided by Ankly (h/t), we get a top ten of...
WS Name
21.6 Stanley Robinson
21.5 Oscar Robertson
19.8 Clyde Drexler
18.7 Alvin Robertson
16.2 Adrian Dantley
16.2 Magic Johnson
15.7 Emeka Okafor
15.5 Khalid Reeves
15.4 Stephon Marbury
15.0 Mike Conley
...which correlates pretty well with the regular season awards given. From top to bottom, we have three 1s, one null, two 3s, a fourth 1, one more 3 and two more nulls. Some of this comes down to position: Greg Oden did lead PFs in WS, it just so happens that the highest PF in WS was 23rd.
Unfortunately the soft-ware doesn't keep track of offensive and defensive rebounds so those were estimated with 30%. Also unfortunately our league has a much wider disparity in best / worst than real life, which the formalism isn't really meant to handle, so we got results like the Timberwolves amassing negative 42 Win Shares and the Rockets amassing 85. These things happen. Overall, though, we got 1209 Win Shares, and Win Shares in general tends to overshoot by the number of teams, so 1209 - 29 = 1190 ~= 1189 = 29 * 82 / 2. Boom.
As a final note, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to get any more dump bucks this season from articles, but please rate anyway so I can see if this is something people are interested in.
Full list of Win Shares below by name, and please note that these combine all teams a player was on:
0.0 A.J. Price
1.0 Aaron Gray
4.3 Aaron Harrison
4.1 Aaron White
9.4 Acie Law IV
16.2 Adrian Dantley
8.6 Al Horford
11.3 Al Jefferson
1.0 Alaa Abdelnaby
7.4 Alexis Gardner
4.1 Al-Farouq Aminu
7.8 Allen Iverson
8.2 Alvan Adams
18.7 Alvin Robertson
6.6 Americas John-Lewis
2.2 Andre Igoudala
-0.9 Andre Olsen
0.3 Andrew Harrison
-4.3 Angel Jamison
-0.1 Anthony Brown
4.1 Antoine Carr
0.0 Antoine Walker
-1.5 Antonio Carter
8.5 Armen Gilliam
1.4 Arron Afflalo
0.0 Arturo Muireadhach
9.1 Athansios Cathasach
0.9 Bailey Howell
0.0 Bart Kofoed
4.5 Ben Wallace
0.0 Benny Bolton
7.9 Bernard King
4.7 Bill Laimbeer
10.2 Bill Walton
11.0 Billy Donovan
-4.0 Blake Ahearn
5.2 Bo Kimble
1.4 Bob Boozer
5.4 Bobby Portis
9.3 Brian Grant
2.0 Broderick Langhi
9.8 Butch McRae
1.0 Byron Scott
-3.1 Calvin Davidson
-1.5 Caris LeVert
1.7 Carl Issel
0.0 Cedi Osman
1.2 Chalky Studebaker
14.8 Champ Godbolt
13.0 Charles Barkley
6.6 Charlie Ward
8.3 Chris Duhon
-1.5 Chris Obekpa
0.5 Chris Walker
6.7 Chris Welp
0.2 Christian Kukoc
0.5 Christian Wood
0.0 Chucky Atkins
4.8 Cliff Alexander
9.6 Cliff T. Robinson
19.8 Clyde Drexler
-0.1 Coby Karl
1.8 Cole Aldrich
0.0 Colin Pope
-0.2 Corey Corbin
2.5 Craig Ehlo
0.0 Daequan Cook
1.0 Dakari Johnson
8.9 Dale Ellis
-0.2 D'Angelo Russell
4.8 Daniel Orton
4.0 Darrall Imhoff
4.2 Darryl Dawkins
-2.5 Darvin Ham
11.7 David Robinson
13.7 David Thompson
6.0 Delon Wright
6.3 Delonte West
5.2 DeMarcus Cousins
3.5 Dennis Hopson
0.3 Derek Fisher
0.0 Derek Harper
0.2 Derek Shelton
7.2 Derrick Coleman
3.0 Derrick Favors
0.9 Deshawn Olsen
-0.6 Devin Booker
0.0 Dez Wells
13.2 Dick Furry
2.6 Dick Mumma
5.6 DJ Strawberry
1.5 Doc Rivers
3.6 Dominic Long
-3.5 Dominic McGuire
5.7 Donyell Marshall
1.3 Dorrell Wright
1.9 Ducky Potter
6.6 Dwayne Schintzius
9.8 Dwight Howard
3.2 Eddie Jones
0.2 Efthiios Rentzias
2.4 Elden Campbell
15.7 Emeka Okafor
2.6 Emmanuel Mudiay
10.2 Eric Bledsoe
1.9 Eric Montross
0.2 Erick Dampier
-0.4 Ethan Hudson
5.0 Evan Turner
6.6 Felton Spencer
9.7 Frank Kaminsky
0.1 Fred VanVleet
0.0 Gabe Olaseni
-9.5 Gam-Zish Tibernes
12.3 Gary Bossert
14.0 Gary Payton
0.0 Gay Elmore
3.2 George Gervin
11.9 Georges Niang
0.0 Giorgio Printezis
4.4 Glenn Robinson
3.2 Grant Hill
14.7 Greg Monroe
13.0 Greg Oden
1.6 Gus Williams
7.7 Ha Seung-Jin
8.0 Hakeem Olajuwon
8.4 Hank Gathers
1.3 Hansi Gnad
0.1 Horace Grant
-2.3 Ingo Coty
1.0 Jabari Collier
4.2 Jack Sikma
3.8 Jackie Moreland
0.5 Jackson Cardinal
-1.4 Jadranko Teobaldo
-0.3 Jahlil Okafor
7.4 Jalen Rose
8.5 Jamaal Wilkes
3.9 Jameer Nelson
1.0 James Donaldson
7.7 James Edwards
0.0 Jamie Dixon
0.2 Jamie Feick
0.2 Jared Dudley
14.9 Jason Kidd
0.0 Javaris Crittenton
0.5 Jay Arnette
3.1 Jay Humphries
1.4 Jayson Williams
1.6 Jeff Green
2.6 Jeff Malone
-1.9 Jeff Thomas
0.1 Jerian Grant
5.6 Jermaine O'Neal
5.4 Jerod Kundla
1.4 Jerome Williams
11.2 Jerry West
1.8 Jesus Abdul-Wahad
0.0 Jim McIlvaine
-0.8 Jim Perdue
0.3 Jimmy Paxson
0.1 Joakim Noah
0.0 Joe Wolf
3.7 John Drew
0.9 John Stockton
6.1 John Wall
1.2 John Wallace
10.2 John Williamson
9.2 Jon Pierce
-2.1 Jonah Samake
0.3 Jonathon Huh
2.0 Jordan Crawford
2.6 Jordan Monroe
-10.8 Josh Coleman
3.4 Josh McRoberts
9.7 Josh Smith
7.5 Joshua Smith
14.2 JR Smith
5.9 Julian Wright
1.1 Justice Winslow
0.3 Justin Anderson
2.4 Juwan Howard
0.5 Karl-Anthony Towns
0.0 Kelly Oubre
0.9 Ken Norman
1.1 Kennedy Meeks
1.0 Kenny Smith
0.1 Kerry Kittles
8.1 Kevin Durant
0.7 Kevin Johnson
-2.8 Kevin Joseph
9.8 Kevin Willis
-0.9 Kevon Looney
15.5 Khalid Reeves
7.3 Kobe Bryant
5.6 Kristaps Porzingis
0.5 Kurt Jackson
0.2 Kyrlyo Fesenko
0.0 LaDon Dean
14.4 Lance Stephenson
8.0 Larry Kenon
5.3 Lenny Wilkens
0.7 Lester Fonville
7.3 Lex Drum
0.2 Liam Lynch
8.9 Lionel Hollins
-2.3 Lloyd McHale
4.6 Lonnie Shelton
0.1 Lorenzen Wright
1.1 Luke Jackson
16.2 Magic Johnson
-5.6 Magnus Amittai
0.0 Malik Richmond
6.5 Manute Bol
2.8 Marc Gasol
-0.3 Marco Belinelli
2.2 Marcus Camby
1.1 Mario Hezonja
6.9 Mark Eaton
5.3 Mark Gottfried
5.0 Mark Jackson
13.5 Marques Johnson
0.7 Martin Muursepp
0.2 Marvin Webster
-2.7 Mason Cowens
-4.0 Mateen Drew
0.3 Mel Bennett
1.5 Mel Turpin
0.1 Michael Frazier
13.7 Michael Jordan
15.0 Mike Conley
2.8 Montrezl Harrell
4.6 Monty Williams
5.0 Moochie Norris
-0.1 Morgan Schechter
0.1 Morgan Schenk
0.0 Morgan Tuttle
1.5 Morris Almond
-0.3 Morris Long
11.7 Moses Malone
0.0 Mouhammadou Jaiteh
0.5 Moussa Diagne
4.9 Muggsy Bogues
7.3 Mustafa Shakur
8.8 Myles Turner
-9.2 Neetnum Nagdorus
-0.6 Nenad Miljenovic
8.2 Neon Boudeaux
5.0 Nick Fazekas
1.0 Nick Young
-0.2 Norm Nixon
0.0 Olden Polynice
21.5 Oscar Robertson
1.2 Oscar Schmidt
0.6 Othella Harrington
3.0 Otis Birdsong
3.8 Otis Thorpe
-1.5 Owen Oakley
-10.8 Page Savva
3.8 Patrick Patterson
10.4 Paul George
1.8 Paul Neumann
10.0 Pee Wee Kirkland
3.1 Phil Lovelette
13.3 Pickles Kennedy
7.2 Priest Lauderdale
-0.2 Quentin Naismith
-1.1 Rakeem Christmas
6.1 Ralph Sampson
-0.1 Rashad Vaughn
4.5 Ray Allen
-0.8 Reggie Geary
5.9 Reggie King
0.6 Reggie Lewis
5.1 Reggie Miller
0.0 Reggie Williams
3.3 Rickey Green
0.3 Robert Hawkins
1.7 Robert Swift
-3.2 Robert Upshaw
3.5 Rodney Stuckey
0.2 Ron Riley
0.4 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
-0.1 Russell Cross
4.3 Ryan DeBernardi
0.6 Ryan Minor
3.8 Sam Bowie
8.6 Sam Perkins
-0.5 Samaki Walker
4.6 Sarunas Marciulionis
0.0 Scoonie Saperstein
2.9 Scott May
0.7 Scottie Pippen
1.3 Sean Williams
2.1 Sebastian Telfair
0.4 Sedale Threatt
-1.4 Shannon Scott
10.1 Shareef Abdur-Rahim
4.7 Shaun Livingston
0.0 Shawn Harvey
-0.3 Sidney Green
0.7 Sidney Moncrief
0.7 Spencer Hawes
-0.8 Stanley Johnson
21.6 Stanley Robinson
15.4 Stephon Marbury
0.3 Steve Alford
5.6 Steve Nash
5.0 Steve Stipanovich
11.3 T.R. Dunn
-2.5 Taegan Dermid
-7.8 Teodor Ethan
0.6 Terrell Bell
0.1 Terrell Morgan
3.9 Terry Mills
8.7 Theodosios Cathasach
4.0 Theofanis Christodoulou
8.1 Thurl Bailey
4.5 Tiago Splitter
1.1 Todd Fuller
9.1 Tom Barker
2.2 Tom Hawkins
6.0 Tom LaGarde
5.2 Tom Sanders
0.8 Toni Kukoc
0.0 Travis Knight
0.9 Tree Rollins
0.4 Trevor Booker
-1.0 Trey Campbell
0.6 Tyrone Wallace
0.2 Tyus Jones
0.0 Vince Nesby
0.3 Vitaly Potapenko
2.4 Walter McCarty
-2.3 Wetzel Shea
0.1 Will Cunningham
-1.0 Willie Cauley-Stein
0.0 Wilson Chandler
13.1 Wilt Chamberlain
2.6 World B. Free
4.5 Xavier Henry
6.9 Yi Jianlian
1.6 Yinka Dare
-2.4 Yirmiyaho Iair
2.7 York Gross
2.8 Zack Bird
3.1 Zydrunas Ilgauskas
