Random NBA Facts (2,196 views)

[eric]

Dec 30, 2015 10:20:27 GMT -6 Druce said:

eric, a friend of mine is trying to tell me that lebron isn't as good as jordan or kobe based on his jump shooting%...i know this isn't true, but do you have anything statistically that i can just shut his ass up with?

LeBron has a better 3P% than Kobe and Jordan: 33.9% to 33.0% and 32.7% respectively, and Jordan got to shoot baby threes on a third of his attempts (95-97).
We only have 16-23 foot two point information going back to 2000. In that span LeBron generates 0.888 points per long jumper and Kobe generates 0.886.

There are a lot of criticisms one can levy on LeBron. Scoring efficiency is really never going to be one of them. Even in what Bankz correctly notes as a major down year for LeBron, he is fifth in eFG% out of twenty 20 PPG scorers. Blake Griffin is .002 ahead of him, Kawhi and Durant are ahead by a lot more, and then Curry is way ahead of everyone.

[Bankz]

I'm glad eric and I can finally agree about someone NBA related when it comes to this LeBron point I made... Cheers mate

[eric]

Brian Windhorst raised a point today on the Lowe Post that Anthony Davis was unlikely to make All-NBA (and therefore trigger a massive increase in his contract) because the Pelicans have no chance of making the playoffs, which I thought was interesting so I looked into it.

First of all he's definitely right, players on playoff teams have made up 103 of the 135 All-NBA spots since it moved to three teams in 1989, good for 76% in a league where at least 50% of teams made the playoffs throughout this sample, usually a lot higher. Interestingly the split of non-playoff All-NBA players by All-NBA team is 0 first, 15 second, 17 third.

In only two years did three non-playoff players make All-NBA:
1998 Grant Hill (2nd), Rod Strickland (2nd), Mitch Richmond (3rd)
2005 LeBron James (2nd), Kevin Garnett (2nd), Kobe Bryant (lmbo)

We can also look at the players reasonably certain to make All-NBA this year by their playoff statuses, and everyone on this list except Harden would be a shock to miss them.

G: Curry, Paul, Butler, Westbrook, Harden
F: LeBron, Durant, Kawhi
C: DeAndre

So there's a lot of room in the frontcourt and for non-playoff guys, but what happens if we look not only at guys missing the playoffs but by how many games? Over the past fifteen years...

16 - 2015 Boogie (as a center, but 2nd team center)
00 - 2015 Westbrook
09 - 2014 Love
01 - 2014 Dragic
10 - 2012 Love (prorates to 12 games in an 82 game season)
02 - 2009 Shaq
10 - 2007 Garnett
10 - 2006 Yao
02 - 2006 Iverson
00 - 2005 LeBron
01 - 2005 Garnett
11 - 2005 Kobe
15 - 2004 McGrady (also note that they had the worst record in the NBA, and the only time since 1981 a scoring leader received 0 MVP votes)
03 - 2001 Payton

The Pelicans will probably only finish 7 games out of the playoffs or so, so it wouldn't be unheard of for a player on a team as bad as Davis to sneak in.

[dilworth]

Jan 27, 2016 16:46:50 GMT -6 eric said:

Brian Windhorst raised a point today on the Lowe Post that Anthony Davis was unlikely to make All-NBA (and therefore trigger a massive increase in his contract) because the Pelicans have no chance of making the playoffs, which I thought was interesting so I looked into it.

First of all he's definitely right, players on playoff teams have made up 103 of the 135 All-NBA spots since it moved to three teams in 1989, good for 76% in a league where at least 50% of teams made the playoffs throughout this sample, usually a lot higher. Interestingly the split of non-playoff All-NBA players by All-NBA team is 0 first, 15 second, 17 third.

In only two years did three non-playoff players make All-NBA:
1998 Grant Hill (2nd), Rod Strickland (2nd), Mitch Richmond (3rd)
2005 LeBron James (2nd), Kevin Garnett (2nd), Kobe Bryant (lmbo)

We can also look at the players reasonably certain to make All-NBA this year by their playoff statuses, and everyone on this list except Harden would be a shock to miss them.

G: Curry, Paul, Butler, Westbrook, Harden
F: LeBron, Durant, Kawhi
C: DeAndre

So there's a lot of room in the frontcourt and for non-playoff guys, but what happens if we look not only at guys missing the playoffs but by how many games? Over the past fifteen years...

16 - 2015 Boogie (as a center, but 2nd team center)
00 - 2015 Westbrook
09 - 2014 Love
01 - 2014 Dragic
10 - 2012 Love (prorates to 12 games in an 82 game season)
02 - 2009 Shaq
10 - 2007 Garnett
10 - 2006 Yao
02 - 2006 Iverson
00 - 2005 LeBron
01 - 2005 Garnett
11 - 2005 Kobe
15 - 2004 McGrady (also note that they had the worst record in the NBA, and the only time since 1981 a scoring leader received 0 MVP votes)
03 - 2001 Payton

The Pelicans will probably only finish 7 games out of the playoffs or so, so it wouldn't be unheard of for a player on a team as bad as Davis to sneak in.

Will Andre Drummond make an All-NBA team over Davis if the Pistons stay in the top 8?

[eric]

dilworth

The hardest part about All-NBA is guessing where people will put positional tweeners like Davis, because it's just that: a guess. Tim Duncan for example has made All-NBA as a forward and a center, Tracy McGrady made it as a guard and a forward, there are probably others. The ballot nebulously tells voters to select players "at the position they play regularly", there's no hard and fast rules.

Right now I would say Drummond has done more than Davis, and so if it comes down to the two of them I would put Drummond in regardless of where either team finishes. There's only 15 spots so having a playoff team doesn't guarantee an All-NBA spot, and even if it did people might talk themselves into Reggie Jackson instead.

My guess is that Davis will miss so much time between now and the end of the season that it'll be a moot point: he gets dinged up a lot anyway and the Pelicans have absolutely nothing to win for.

[MistleTacoe]

There's a lottttt of basketball left to play as well

[Deleted]

But will Davis play in those games?

[eric]

The NBA has given out Player of the Week and Player of the Month awards since the 1980 season, and started giving one to each conference in the 2002 season. If we count ties as the fraction (1 / recipients) of the award, weight pre-2002 awards by two (as there are two conferences in the NBA), and sum, we get the following top ten:

POTW Name
50 L. James
48 M. Jordan
43 K. Malone
40 M. Johnson
34.5 K. Bryant
31 S. O'Neal
30 D. Robinson
30 L. Bird
28 T. Duncan
27 A. Iverson

POTM Name
32 Michael Jordan
28.5 LeBron James
22 Shaquille O'Neal
18 Kobe Bryant
14 Karl Malone
14 Larry Bird
12 Hakeem Olajuwon
12 Magic Johnson
11.5 Kevin Durant
10 Kevin Garnett
10 Patrick Ewing
And if we weight POTM = 4 * POTW, we get total POT figures of:

POT Name
176 M. Jordan
164 L. James
119 S. O'Neal
106.5 K. Bryant
99 K. Malone
88 M. Johnson
86 L. Bird
71 H. Olajuwon
68 K. Durant
65 K. Garnett

[eric]

The NBA MVP was first awarded by sporting writers in 1981. Since then, three players have received at least one #1 vote in nine or more years.

SPOILER: Click to show

9 Shaquille O'Neal
9 LeBron James
11 Michael Jordan

In the same span, four men have received more than 200 career #1 votes:

SPOILER: Click to show

220 Shaquille O'Neal
256 Larry Bird
462 LeBron James
530.5 Michael Jordan

Last year there were 130 #1 votes cast. If we normalize every year to 130 #1 votes, the top ten in this era are:

SPOILER: Click to show

686 Michael Jordan
493 LeBron James
437 Larry Bird
268 Magic Johnson
235 Shaquille O'Neal
210 Moses Malone
190 Kevin Garnett
177 Tim Duncan
172 Karl Malone
170 Steve Nash

[eric]

From 1966 to 1973, Wilt Chamberlain scored 22 ppg on 60 FG% and 46 FT%.
From 1977 to 1986, Artis Gilmore scored 19 ppg on 60 FG% and 72 FT%.

[eric]

Artis Gilmore holds the NBA career FG% record of 60% (minimum 2000 makes). DeAndre Jordan can shoot 15% on his next 454 field goal attempts and still beat that record.

[eric]

Russell Westbrook became the 13th man in NBA history to receive at least two All Star MVP awards. The company he joins is pretty mixed:

4 Bob Pettit
2 Bob Cousy
3 Oscar Robertson
2 Julius Erving
2 Isiah Thomas
2 Magic Johnson
2 Karl Malone
3 Michael Jordan
2 Allen Iverson
3 Shaquille O'Neal
4 Kobe Bryant
2 LeBron James
2 Russell Westbrook
No Russell, no Wilt, no Bird, no Kareem (doesn't even have one), no Duncan, and second tier at best guys Kobe and Pettit top the list with 4 each (although one of each is a tie). Still, we got most of the good people in there.

[eric]

Steph Curry has as many games with nine made three pointers as the next two players combined (JR Smith 5, Kobe Bryant 4)
Steph Curry has as many games with ten made three pointers as the next two players combined (JR Smith 3, Klay Thompson 2)
Steph Curry has as many games with eleven made three pointers as the next three players combined (seven guys have 1)

[eric]

Let's consider the youngest men to 10,000 NBA points, stats thanks to b-r.

1973 - the first to break the age 26 barrier is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at 25 years and 343 days
1977 - Bob McAdoo sets a record that will stand for 25 years when he gets his 10,000th at 25 years and 137 days
1982 - Adrian Dantley edges Kareem at 25 years and 342 days
1989 - Michael Jordan ties Kareem at 25 years and 343 days
1998 - Shaquille O'Neal narrowly takes second at 25 years and 341 days

2002 - Shareef Abdur-Rahim bests Oscar Robertson's 26 years and 18 days by one day to take sixth place. He is the first player drafted after the KG draft to get here. Note that 4, 5, 7, and 9 years separated the first five. He is currently thirteenth.

2003 - Kobe Bryant shatters the record by taking only 24 years and 194 days. It will only last for five years.
2004 - Tracy McGrady joins at 24 years and 272 days.
2008 - LeBron James sets a record that will probably never be broken with 23 years and 59 days.
2009 - Carmelo Anthony 24 years 251 days
2010 - Chris Bosh 25 years 358 days
2011 - Dwight Howard 25 years 95 days
2012 - Kevin Durant 24 years 33 days

And that's it. After five players in five years, none have done it since. The closest two are of course Russell Westbrook (26/107) and James Harden (26/140).

Regarding LeBron's record, if Anthony Davis played every game from now on and scored 40 points a game, he would hit 10,000 on or about December 1st 2017, at which point he would be 24 and about 265 days old.

[eric]

Russell Westbrook is averaging 4+ turnovers per game for his second straight NBA season. Turnovers were first recorded in 1978, how often has that happened?

1978 1979 George McGinnis
1978 1979 Kevin Porter
1982 1983 Isiah Thomas
1986 1987 Charles Barkley
2004 2005 Allen Iverson
2015 2016 Russell Westbrook

Isiah is a big surprise to me given that Bill Simmons refers to him as "The Best Pure Point Guard Ever" and has him as the second highest point guard in his NBA Pyramid (behind Cousy because lol) or third if you count Jerry West as a PG. Some of this is pace: the pre-Daly Pistons were a high paced team for their era at ~105 (league average 102), these Thunder are a slightly high paced team at ~97 (league average 95), so the average is lower and the Thunder are closer to it, but still.

Here are some stats comparing the two players:
2.0 TSA/ast, 2.5 ast/tov, .33 FTA/FGA, 29% from three, 76% from the line
2.7 TSA/ast, 2.0 ast/tov, .39 FTA/FGA, 30% from three, 82% from the line

Westbrook is quite a bit further on the shoot-first continuum and a worse passer, but it's not like Isiah is killing it in those stats. (By comparison Chris Paul is 1.6 and 4.1, John Stockton is 1.0 and 3.7.) Westbrook is also probably better at getting to the rim (not a surprise) and jump shooting (staggering). The NBA didn't keep track of shot locations more granular than three pointers when Isiah played, so we really have no way to prove or disprove assertions about Isiah's jump shooting. His FT% is pretty low for someone who was supposed to be "deadly from 18-20 feet", though: it stands to reason that if you can shoot really well from 18 with people covering you, you ought to be able to shoot really well from 15 without. It's possible to be a plus jump shooter and average free throw shooter, but of the 66 players to take at least 150 shots from each zone last year the only ones I found were Monta Ellis (44% 75%), Nikola Vucevic (47% 75%), and David West (50% 74%), whereas there were 23 who were strong from both. (The worst? Michael Carter-Williams at 25% 69%. Woof!)

Anyway like most of his work Simmons relies a lot on intangibles and anecdotes so my point here is less about where Isiah should rank in Simmons' Pyramid and more about a clearer understanding of Isiah as a player.

[Lazy Pete]

Isiah's jumper was maxed out in NBA Jam, that's all the evidence I need

[eric]

Jan 28, 2016 9:28:43 GMT -6 eric said:

My guess is that Davis will miss so much time between now and the end of the season that [All-NBA will] be a moot point: he gets dinged up a lot anyway and the Pelicans have absolutely nothing to win for.

So right now here are the top forwards and centers by Win Shares, in order: Durant, Kawhi, LeBron, DeAndre, Draymond, LMA, Millsap, Horford, Whiteside, PG13, Hayward, TT, Anthony Davis (with Love and KAT nipping at his heels).

-The obvious locks are Durant, Kawhi, LeBron, and DeAndre. I would be shocked if any of them didn't make it.
-The Warriors are going to have two All-NBAs and there are waaaaay too many guards to squeeze Klay in (currently 11th in a race for 6 spots). Draymond in.
-The Hawks have quietly snuck into the #3 seed. Three through six is pretty bunched up but I expect Horford to make it as a center as he did in 2011.

That's 6 of a possible 9 spots accounted for. The Jazz and Pistons are fringey playoff teams so I don't really expect Drummond or Hayward to make it, and the Hawks aren't good enough IMO for Millsap to make it on top of Horford. I think KAT gets the last center spot as a feel good story, I don't know when the last rookie All-NBAer was but Duncan definitely did it in '98 so it's not unprecedented. Whiteside coming off the bench I would think takes him out of the running, I'll look into that too. I think the voters sneak Butler in as a forward: his numbers are similar to Klay's but he's by far the best player on his team while Klay is at best #3. Last spot is still pretty up for grabs: the Pacers are iffy so George is too, the Cavs probably aren't good enough to deserve two spots, Thompson comes off the bench more than Whiteside, and the media hates them anyway. It's still possible Davis gets in, especially when you consider that everyone knows he gets a huge raise if he does. Voters are humans.

[eric]

Should Yao Ming be in the Hall of Fame?

Here is a list of the players who accrued 65 or more Win Shares in their first seven years, in order of descending Win Shares. The first column indicates they are already in the Hall, the second that they are a lock to be so, the third that they are eligible to be in and have not been elected, the fourth that they are not yet eligible:

in lock not in active name
x Wilt Chamberlain
x Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
x Oscar Robertson
x David Robinson
x Michael Jordan
x George Mikan
x LeBron James
x Tim Duncan
x Charles Barkley
x Larry Bird
x Neil Johnston
x Chris Paul
x Kevin Durant
x Bob Pettit
x Jerry West
x Bill Russell
x Ed Macauley
x Walt Bellamy
x Walt Frazier
x Paul Arizin
x Dolph Schayes
x Karl Malone
x Dirk Nowitzki
x Dwight Howard
x Magic Johnson
x Sidney Moncrief
x Bob McAdoo
x Shaquille O'Neal
x Shawn Marion
x James Harden
x John Stockton
x Hakeem Olajuwon
x Bailey Howell
x Bob Lanier
x Marques Johnson
x Elgin Baylor
x Stephen Curry
x Elton Brand
x Dwyane Wade
x Reggie Miller
x Adrian Dantley
x Kevin McHale
x Willis Reed
x Vern Mikkelsen
x Yao Ming
x Jerry Lucas
x Wes Unseld
I don't think Elton Brand or Shawn Marion (accomplishments) or Chris Paul (media hates him) will make it, though I think Paul should and I've made the case for Moncrief and Marques in the past so I won't rehash that here. Still, out of the 42 guys we know that makes 95% success, plus Yao has the excuse of injuries cutting short his career. I think his résumé makes a solid argument to be in.

[ANK1990]

Chris Paul will easily make the HOF

[Lazy Pete]

I think Wade is much more of a lock for the HOF than Dwight

[eric]

Mar 31, 2016 14:07:01 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

I think Wade is much more of a lock for the HOF than Dwight

Dwight has 5 all-nba firsts, everybody else with that (24 guys) is either in, a lock, or Jason Kidd. Add on that Dwight has 3 DPOYs and he's a lock.

Wade only has 2 all-nba firsts. He's got the FMVP but so do Jo Jo White, Cornbread, and Iguodala and they aren't getting in. He only had one top-3 MVP finish. They've each got only the one gold medal, for whatever that's worth. I'm not saying he definitely won't get in, I'm just saying his resume isn't as strong as you might think.

Chris Paul has all time top five stats, but stats don't elect you to the Hall of Fame, sportswriters do, and a lot of sportswriters just hate Chris Paul. Is it because they're racists? I don't know, I'm just asking the question.

[Lazy Pete]

Wade had Kobe in his way for all nba first team during his prime. Dwight had very little competition at the center position

[eric]

Mar 26, 2016 11:20:17 GMT -6 eric said:

Jan 28, 2016 9:28:43 GMT -6 eric said:

My guess is that Davis will miss so much time between now and the end of the season that [All-NBA will] be a moot point: he gets dinged up a lot anyway and the Pelicans have absolutely nothing to win for.

So right now here are the top forwards and centers by Win Shares, in order: Durant, Kawhi, LeBron, DeAndre, Draymond, LMA, Millsap, Horford, Whiteside, PG13, Hayward, TT, Anthony Davis (with Love and KAT nipping at his heels).

-The obvious locks are Durant, Kawhi, LeBron, and DeAndre. I would be shocked if any of them didn't make it.
-The Warriors are going to have two All-NBAs and there are waaaaay too many guards to squeeze Klay in (currently 11th in a race for 6 spots). Draymond in.
-The Hawks have quietly snuck into the #3 seed. Three through six is pretty bunched up but I expect Horford to make it as a center as he did in 2011.

That's 6 of a possible 9 spots accounted for. The Jazz and Pistons are fringey playoff teams so I don't really expect Drummond or Hayward to make it, and the Hawks aren't good enough IMO for Millsap to make it on top of Horford. I think KAT gets the last center spot as a feel good story, I don't know when the last rookie All-NBAer was but Duncan definitely did it in '98 so it's not unprecedented. Whiteside coming off the bench I would think takes him out of the running, I'll look into that too. I think the voters sneak Butler in as a forward: his numbers are similar to Klay's but he's by far the best player on his team while Klay is at best #3. Last spot is still pretty up for grabs: the Pacers are iffy so George is too, the Cavs probably aren't good enough to deserve two spots, Thompson comes off the bench more than Whiteside, and the media hates them anyway. It's still possible Davis gets in, especially when you consider that everyone knows he gets a huge raise if he does. Voters are humans.

I've seen nine published ballots so far. Their consensus:

LeBron first team 9/9
Kawhi first team 8/9, second team 1/9
Horford second team 5/9, third team 3/9

Green first team center 3/9, second team forward 6/9
Durant first team 1/9, second team 8/9
Boogie first team 2/9, second team 2/9, third team 1/9

George second team 1/9, third team 6/9
Millsap second team 1/9, third team 5/9
DeAndre first team 3/9, third team 1/9

I don't know how the NBA calculates the results of split position guys. I suspect they put Draymond as a forward because the forwards drop off so dramatically after Durant otherwise, but if we just add the votes he obviously has way more than Horford who would otherwise (narrowly) be the highest center (in this sample), so I don't know what they'll do. They did list two centers on the All-NBA second team last year so they might just list three first team forwards this year, who knows.

Towns first team 1/9, third team 3/9
Drummond second team 2/9, third team 1/9
Butler second team 1/9, third team 2/9 (also a 3rd team as guard)
Aldridge third team 2/9
Love third team 1/9
Davis third team 1/9
Hayward third team 1/9

So far I'm off on Butler over Millsap/George. It's close, but the Pacers making the playoffs over the Bulls probably swung a lot of support from Butler to George so that makes sense. Boogie over Towns is a surprise to me, Boogie over DeAndre is a shock. To be concluded!

[eric]

When Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut are both sitting, the Warriors are -11 points per 100 possessions over 984 minutes.
When Draymond Green plays and Andrew Bogut is sitting, the Warriors are +21 points per 100 possessions over 1539 minutes.
This is a net effect of +32.

We see similar splits with Draymond and Klay (+26), Draymond and Iguodala (+29), and even Draymond and Curry (+19).

[eric]

Dec 29, 2015 20:35:34 GMT -6 eric said:

In 1994, the year before the three point line was moved in, the NBA had six players convert at least 40% of at least 150 three point attempts: Scott Skiles, Eric Murdock, Kenny Smith, Reggie Miller, Mitch Richmond, and Wardell Curry. The 2013 NBA Champion Miami Heat had five such players: Mike Miller, LeBron James, Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, and Walter Ray Allen.

No other team before or since has even had four. This year's Warriors already have two (Klay Thompson, Wardell Curry II), are on pace to have another (Draymond Green), and if Harrison Barnes stays healthy after Wednesday's game and regains his % form from last year will have a fourth.

As it turned out, the Warriors managed three: Curry, Klay, and Brandon Rush. Three Warriors is the most in the NBA for the second straight year, this year the next highest is two, a tie between Cleveland (Delly and JR) and Sacramento (Omri Casspi and Darren Collison).

Dec 30, 2015 9:54:07 GMT -6 eric said:

In the past forty years, there have been five seasons where a player produced .300+ Win Shares per 48 minutes:
Michael Jordan (1988, 1991, 1996)
LeBron James (2009, 2013)

There are two players currently above .300 WS/48 for the season:
Steph Curry (.348)
Kawhi Leonard (.318)

Curry made it with .318, Kawhi didn't. What's also pretty incredible is that nobody else on the Warriors managed to top .200, and they're going to have at least one other All-NBA player and maybe two. The 1996 Bulls had three such players around Jordan's .317: Kukoc .231, Pippen .209, and Kerr .208. Pippen was the Bulls' only other All-NBA, but he was a First Teamer. Kukoc and Kerr were both bench players, Kukoc won Sixth Man of the Year. The other All-NBA forwards were Karl Malone, Grant Hill, Shawn Kemp, Charles Barkley (all deserved over Kukoc) and Juwan Howard (a mind boggling selection). By Win Shares the last forward spot was between Kukoc, Anthony Mason, and Larry Johnson, and to me that's an easy choice for Kukoc considering the Knicks and Hornets were middling teams that year.

[eric]

There have been 32 years played under the current 16 team playoff format. In 26 of those years the team with the MVP got at least to the Conference Finals. The other six:

2010 LeBron James (2nd round)
2007 Dirk Nowitzki (1st round)
2002 Tim Duncan (2nd round)
1999 Karl Malone (2nd round)
1990 Magic Johnson (2nd round)
1988 Michael Jordan (2nd round)

For all 60 playoffs in which an MVP was awarded, the outcomes for their teams were:
23 titles
07 losses in the Finals (Russell 1958 the only time prior to 1984)
17 losses in the Conference Finals
09 losses in the Conference Semifinals
03 losses in the First Round (Moses twice on top of Dirk)
01 missed the playoffs entirely (Kareem 1976)

[eric]

Steph Curry scored 24 points in 20 minutes today. That's happened about fifty times in the last thirty regular season years, but only twice in the playoffs in the same span.

2010 Goran Dragic off the bench in Game 3 of a second round Suns sweep of the Spurs. Those Suns went on to lose to the Lakers in six in the Conference Finals.

2012 Paul Pierce in Game 4 of a six game first round Celtics win over the Hawks. Those Celtics went on to limp to a seven game win over the eight seed 76ers and choke away a 3-2 series lead over the eventual champion Heat in the Conference Finals.

[eric]

Bill Simmons took to Twitter to complain about the first round, saying it was too predictable and should go back to best of five. Does he have a point?

Not counting this year there have been thirteen playoffs under the best of seven first round. Out of 104 such series there have been 24 upsets:
03 1-8 (2012 76ers over Bulls, 2011 Grizzlies over Spurs, 2007 Warriors over Mavericks)
01 2-7 (2010 Spurs over Mavericks)
07 3-6 and
13 4-5

We can also look at the total number of games played:
137 1-8
135 2-7
151 3-6
151 4-5

And finally the lengths of series:
84 decided in 4
140 decided in 5
210 decided in 6
140 decided in 7

.

Now let's compare to the years from 2002 to 1990, because the NBA was roughly the same size (no fewer than 27 teams) and by coincidence it gives us the same thirteen sized sample. Out of those 104 series there were 29 upsets:
02 1-8 (1999 Knicks over Heat, 1994 Nuggets over Supersonics)
02 2-7 (1998 Knicks over Heat, 1991 Warriors over Spurs)
06 3-6 and
19 4-5

Total number of games played:
105 1-8
102 2-7
107 3-6
107 4-5

Lengths of series:
93 decided in 3
148 decided in 4
180 decided in 5

.

.

All told, going from best of seven to best of five for the first round means:

0.4 more upsets per year, but only in the 3-6 and 4-5 matchups
0.7 more sweeps per year
slightly flatter distribution with respect to seed, although it's pretty flat already

Over three years we get two more sweeps and one more upset. It's all well and good to say best of five will make things more exciting, but when you look at the actual numbers my response is

[eric]

all stats c/o b-r

Points, rebounds, assists per game. Who topped 25 5 and 5 for their career?

Regular Season
25 7 9 Oscar Robertson
27 5 6 Jerry West
30 6 5 Michael Jordan
27 7 6 LeBron James

Playoffs
29 5 6 Jerry West
33 6 5 Michael Jordan
28 8 6 LeBron James

[eric]

Apr 14, 2016 13:36:00 GMT -6 eric said:

I've seen nine published ballots so far. Their consensus:

LeBron first team 9/9
Kawhi first team 8/9, second team 1/9
Horford second team 5/9, third team 3/9

Green first team center 3/9, second team forward 6/9
Durant first team 1/9, second team 8/9
Boogie first team 2/9, second team 2/9, third team 1/9

George second team 1/9, third team 6/9
Millsap second team 1/9, third team 5/9
DeAndre first team 3/9, third team 1/9

Some more ballots from nba.com:

LeBron James first team 8/8
Kawhi Leonard first team 7/8 second team 1/8
Andre Drummond first team 3/8 second team 3/8 third team 1/8

Draymond Green second team 7/8 first team center 1/8
Kevin Durant first team 1/8 second team 7/8
DeAndre Jordan first team 2/8 second team 4/8 third team 1/8

Paul Millsap third team 6/8
Paul George third team 6/8
Boogie Cousins first team 1/8 second team 1/8 third team 2/8

Combining the two samples we have a clear forward pecking order so long as Draymond counts as a forward: LeBron/Kawhi first, Draymond/Durant second, Millsap/George third. The problem is that there's complete disarray in the center votes. Andre is the consensus first team center in these and wasn't even All-NBA in the last set, vice versa for Horford (only got a single vote for third team!!). Putting them together we get DeAndre (5 firsts 39 points) Drummond (3 firsts 32 points) Boogie (3 firsts 27 points), but Draymond has 4 first team center votes, 59 total points, and would presumably have gotten some second or third team center votes if voters were told they had to put him at center. At the same time, if voters were told they couldn't put him at center my feeling is they're the kind of voters who would have shown Horford some love, and he's only 8 points behind Boogie in this sample.

It's a mess. Hopefully the NBA makes some hard and fast rules for this going forward and for guard/forward while they're at it. Davis definitely has no shot though, he's gotten 2 third team votes out of 17 published ballots.