Post by eric on Oct 24, 2016 10:49:49 GMT -6
Spurs over Cavs for the title
.
EAST
Cleveland
Andersen can do what Mozgov did for 10 minutes a game. Delly out is a legitimate loss, his mysterious benching in the Finals notwithstanding. LeBron is in the decline stage of his career, and you never know how smoothly that's gonna go, especially with regard to injuries. It's not going to matter. They're so far ahead of everyone else and nobody else made enough moves. They've got three of the top seven players in the Eastern Conference, they've got continuity, they've got good enough coaching. It would be a surprise if they don't make the Finals, and a shock if they don't make the Conference Finals.
Boston
Al Horford is a great player. Losing Evan Turner is addition by subtraction. I really like what Boston has cooking. They have 0 chance of beating a healthy Cleveland, but I think they're a heavy favorite for second best team in the East.
Toronto
Bismack Biyombo looked a lot like 2013 Roy Hibbert last year and is gonna look a lot like 2014 Roy Hibbert this year, but he's still a quality big that gave them a lot of decent minutes. Scola wasn't good but he was playing because none of their other options were any better. That's ~40 mpg they've gotta replace with someone, and Jared Sullinger is not the answer to any NBA question.
Indiana
They've got Paul George and Myles Turner. The rest of the roster continues to be island of the misfit toys with no clear plan, plus they've got a new head coach. I think talent wins out but they've got a long way to go to be contenders, and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish anywhere from four to six.
Charlotte
No great or even very good players but a lot of good ones. Should be very strong defensively with the addition of Hibbert, but there's just not enough shooting even if they start Belinelli.
Atlanta
They got older, Dwighter, and less shooting at point guard. Not a great mix. Bazemore isn't DeMar DeRozan level bad but he's not good. Hard times in Atlanta.
Everyone Else
Stinks. I feel bad for Wall, Butler, and the Snapper, but there's just no way they crack the top four and all three could very easily miss the playoffs, which is crazy.
.
WEST
San Antonio
San Antonio had the best Pythagorean win-loss record last year. Tim Duncan is an all time top ten player, but last year he only played 1500 minutes and only gave you .16 ws/48 - very good numbers, but not irreplaceably great. Pau is also a better fit for the modern NBA: last year Duncan shot 28% on long twos, Pau gave you 45% and dabbled with the three ball. He's old and slow but Duncan's been playing on one foot for five years so I don't see a lot of slippage there. They lowkey lost a ton of other bigs too but the main thing is that Pop is the best coach in the league. He turned Boris Diaw from a guy who disrespected his teammates so much he couldn't be bothered to get in shape to a dark horse Finals MVP candidate, he'll work his magic on someone else. Throw in a top three player in Kawhi and that's a number one seed, and I suspect a deserved MVP award.
Golden State
Curry is the best player in the NBA. Durant is in the top ten somewhere depending on how big a believer you are in his defense. But there's only one ball, and Draymond has been a chemistry issue for a long time. JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia aren't making up for Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut, but the issue is only going to be chemistry, and even with bad chemistry there's no way they finish below the two seed.
Los Angeles
They made a ton of moves but they're still the same old Clippers. Well behind the top two and probably wouldn't even be favorite against Cleveland, but it's not unprecedented for the third best team from a conference to win a title. Doc Rivers is out here signing Brandon Bass smh.
Houston
Two years ago this team was the two seed in the West, and there are two reasons for that: they got lucky (+6 over Pythagorean) and they had James Harden. They've still got James Harden, they've added some interesting pieces and if Donatas ever gets healthy they'll have one more, they've got one of the great offensive coaches of all time. They could also very easily have the worst defense in the NBA, so I don't see them going any higher than this.
Utah
Joe Johnson is kind of a head scratching addition for them, and the Hayward injury is a concern, but all that youth and talent plus a little better luck (-6 from Pythagorean last year) should give them a real jump.
Portland
Adding Festus Ezeli is very good. Adding Evan Turner is very bad, but Lillard is supposed to be a god tier leadership presence so maybe he can make him stop shooting those awful 39% midrange bricks. I don't think Dame has a lot of growth left but we'll see.
Timberwolves
Like the East the last two spots are a toss up between a bunch of mediocre teams. Towns is the truth. Thibs runs players into the ground and curtails their careers but that won't be an issue for another five or six years. The Twolves were a terrible defensive team last year, if they can't at least make league average this year then we should recalibrate some of our evaluations: Rubio, Towns, and Wiggins all have great reputations as defenders, Thibs' goes without saying. They were above average offensively last year and I think even with whoever the Minnesota equivalent of Taj Gibson that Thibs falls in love with they won't fall too far there. They've got a long way to go but the West isn't that good, I think seven or eight is reasonable for them.
Oklahoma City
We just got finished with the travesty in Lakerland and now we're gonna have this. smh Presti. Everyone knows Durant was the best shooter on the team, but I think people are forgetting that Ibaka was the second best three point shooter in the starting lineup last year, and even he only shot 33%. Their starting lineup this year looks like Westbrook (30%), Roberson (27%), Oladipo (34%), Adams (doesn't shoot past 10 feet), and one of Kanter (36%... on long twos) or Baby Sabonis (took 14 threes in 74 college games). It's all well and good to say Westbrook is gonna go HAM on every play, you can't make an offense out of driving one on four, and that's being generous and saying Oladpio's man stays with him. Also keep in mind that the year Durant got hurt the Thunder even with Ibaka missed the playoffs. At the same time, who's catching them? Memphis and New Orleans will be hurt all year, Dallas has run out of juice.
.
EAST
Cleveland
Andersen can do what Mozgov did for 10 minutes a game. Delly out is a legitimate loss, his mysterious benching in the Finals notwithstanding. LeBron is in the decline stage of his career, and you never know how smoothly that's gonna go, especially with regard to injuries. It's not going to matter. They're so far ahead of everyone else and nobody else made enough moves. They've got three of the top seven players in the Eastern Conference, they've got continuity, they've got good enough coaching. It would be a surprise if they don't make the Finals, and a shock if they don't make the Conference Finals.
Boston
Al Horford is a great player. Losing Evan Turner is addition by subtraction. I really like what Boston has cooking. They have 0 chance of beating a healthy Cleveland, but I think they're a heavy favorite for second best team in the East.
Toronto
Bismack Biyombo looked a lot like 2013 Roy Hibbert last year and is gonna look a lot like 2014 Roy Hibbert this year, but he's still a quality big that gave them a lot of decent minutes. Scola wasn't good but he was playing because none of their other options were any better. That's ~40 mpg they've gotta replace with someone, and Jared Sullinger is not the answer to any NBA question.
Indiana
They've got Paul George and Myles Turner. The rest of the roster continues to be island of the misfit toys with no clear plan, plus they've got a new head coach. I think talent wins out but they've got a long way to go to be contenders, and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish anywhere from four to six.
Charlotte
No great or even very good players but a lot of good ones. Should be very strong defensively with the addition of Hibbert, but there's just not enough shooting even if they start Belinelli.
Atlanta
They got older, Dwighter, and less shooting at point guard. Not a great mix. Bazemore isn't DeMar DeRozan level bad but he's not good. Hard times in Atlanta.
Everyone Else
Stinks. I feel bad for Wall, Butler, and the Snapper, but there's just no way they crack the top four and all three could very easily miss the playoffs, which is crazy.
.
WEST
San Antonio
San Antonio had the best Pythagorean win-loss record last year. Tim Duncan is an all time top ten player, but last year he only played 1500 minutes and only gave you .16 ws/48 - very good numbers, but not irreplaceably great. Pau is also a better fit for the modern NBA: last year Duncan shot 28% on long twos, Pau gave you 45% and dabbled with the three ball. He's old and slow but Duncan's been playing on one foot for five years so I don't see a lot of slippage there. They lowkey lost a ton of other bigs too but the main thing is that Pop is the best coach in the league. He turned Boris Diaw from a guy who disrespected his teammates so much he couldn't be bothered to get in shape to a dark horse Finals MVP candidate, he'll work his magic on someone else. Throw in a top three player in Kawhi and that's a number one seed, and I suspect a deserved MVP award.
Golden State
Curry is the best player in the NBA. Durant is in the top ten somewhere depending on how big a believer you are in his defense. But there's only one ball, and Draymond has been a chemistry issue for a long time. JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia aren't making up for Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut, but the issue is only going to be chemistry, and even with bad chemistry there's no way they finish below the two seed.
Los Angeles
They made a ton of moves but they're still the same old Clippers. Well behind the top two and probably wouldn't even be favorite against Cleveland, but it's not unprecedented for the third best team from a conference to win a title. Doc Rivers is out here signing Brandon Bass smh.
Houston
Two years ago this team was the two seed in the West, and there are two reasons for that: they got lucky (+6 over Pythagorean) and they had James Harden. They've still got James Harden, they've added some interesting pieces and if Donatas ever gets healthy they'll have one more, they've got one of the great offensive coaches of all time. They could also very easily have the worst defense in the NBA, so I don't see them going any higher than this.
Utah
Joe Johnson is kind of a head scratching addition for them, and the Hayward injury is a concern, but all that youth and talent plus a little better luck (-6 from Pythagorean last year) should give them a real jump.
Portland
Adding Festus Ezeli is very good. Adding Evan Turner is very bad, but Lillard is supposed to be a god tier leadership presence so maybe he can make him stop shooting those awful 39% midrange bricks. I don't think Dame has a lot of growth left but we'll see.
Timberwolves
Like the East the last two spots are a toss up between a bunch of mediocre teams. Towns is the truth. Thibs runs players into the ground and curtails their careers but that won't be an issue for another five or six years. The Twolves were a terrible defensive team last year, if they can't at least make league average this year then we should recalibrate some of our evaluations: Rubio, Towns, and Wiggins all have great reputations as defenders, Thibs' goes without saying. They were above average offensively last year and I think even with whoever the Minnesota equivalent of Taj Gibson that Thibs falls in love with they won't fall too far there. They've got a long way to go but the West isn't that good, I think seven or eight is reasonable for them.
Oklahoma City
We just got finished with the travesty in Lakerland and now we're gonna have this. smh Presti. Everyone knows Durant was the best shooter on the team, but I think people are forgetting that Ibaka was the second best three point shooter in the starting lineup last year, and even he only shot 33%. Their starting lineup this year looks like Westbrook (30%), Roberson (27%), Oladipo (34%), Adams (doesn't shoot past 10 feet), and one of Kanter (36%... on long twos) or Baby Sabonis (took 14 threes in 74 college games). It's all well and good to say Westbrook is gonna go HAM on every play, you can't make an offense out of driving one on four, and that's being generous and saying Oladpio's man stays with him. Also keep in mind that the year Durant got hurt the Thunder even with Ibaka missed the playoffs. At the same time, who's catching them? Memphis and New Orleans will be hurt all year, Dallas has run out of juice.
