Post by eric on Apr 22, 2017 19:25:32 GMT -6
From 2012 to 2015, the best three point percentages for players with at least 800 three point attempts went like this:
1. Kyle Korver (47%)
2. Steph Curry (44%)
3. Steve Novak (44%)
4. Jose Calderon (44%)
5. Danny Green (42%)
Over the past two years, here are the ranks for players with at least 400 3PAs:
1. JJ Reddick (45%)
2. Steph Curry (43%)
3. Seth Curry (43%) (yes, seriously)
4. Kyle Korver (42%)
78(!) Danny Green (36%) (!!)
Novak and Calderon are effectively retired so that explains them vacating the list, but
What Happened to Danny Green?
You know me, my first go-to is always sample size. Those first four years saw Green go 602 of 1422, that's 42.3% ± 2.6%, the last two went 234 of 660 for 35.5% ± 3.7%. When you compare two things like this you're supposed to add the error in quadrature, but we don't even have to here, you can see that the ranges don't even overlap: 42.3 - 2.6 = 39.7 > 39.2 = 35.5 + 3.7. The difference in three point percentage is statistically significant.
Alright, how about some peripherals. We know it's easier to shoot when you're assisted, that's why we call it an "assist", and we know it's easier to shoot from the corners than elsewhere. How do those numbers look? Well, in the first four years Green was assisted on 94% of his threes and took 36% of them from the corners, in the last two he's been assisted on 94% and taken 31% from the corners. Assists are a wash, but corners are suggestive...
...except he made 43% from the corners in the first stretch and only 36% in the second. Note how it's barely better than his overall percentage in each case - the problem isn't that he's taking less from the corners, the problem is that he's missing more from everywhere, including the corners.
Alright, stats.nba.com only goes back four years, but it's our only public database for covered shots so we'll use it and say any shot where the closest defender is four feet or further away is "open" and the reverse for "covered". When we do that we see that Green was covered on 20% of his attempts in '14 and '15, but he was covered on only 17% in '16 and '17. If anything we would expect his overall %s to be lower in the earlier years, not the later ones.
.
There's one other thing I can think of.
July 14, 2015
Danny Green signs his first eight figure deal.
And his percentages immediately go in the tank.
Dude, am I wrong?
1. Kyle Korver (47%)
2. Steph Curry (44%)
3. Steve Novak (44%)
4. Jose Calderon (44%)
5. Danny Green (42%)
Over the past two years, here are the ranks for players with at least 400 3PAs:
1. JJ Reddick (45%)
2. Steph Curry (43%)
3. Seth Curry (43%) (yes, seriously)
4. Kyle Korver (42%)
78(!) Danny Green (36%) (!!)
Novak and Calderon are effectively retired so that explains them vacating the list, but
What Happened to Danny Green?
You know me, my first go-to is always sample size. Those first four years saw Green go 602 of 1422, that's 42.3% ± 2.6%, the last two went 234 of 660 for 35.5% ± 3.7%. When you compare two things like this you're supposed to add the error in quadrature, but we don't even have to here, you can see that the ranges don't even overlap: 42.3 - 2.6 = 39.7 > 39.2 = 35.5 + 3.7. The difference in three point percentage is statistically significant.
Alright, how about some peripherals. We know it's easier to shoot when you're assisted, that's why we call it an "assist", and we know it's easier to shoot from the corners than elsewhere. How do those numbers look? Well, in the first four years Green was assisted on 94% of his threes and took 36% of them from the corners, in the last two he's been assisted on 94% and taken 31% from the corners. Assists are a wash, but corners are suggestive...
...except he made 43% from the corners in the first stretch and only 36% in the second. Note how it's barely better than his overall percentage in each case - the problem isn't that he's taking less from the corners, the problem is that he's missing more from everywhere, including the corners.
Alright, stats.nba.com only goes back four years, but it's our only public database for covered shots so we'll use it and say any shot where the closest defender is four feet or further away is "open" and the reverse for "covered". When we do that we see that Green was covered on 20% of his attempts in '14 and '15, but he was covered on only 17% in '16 and '17. If anything we would expect his overall %s to be lower in the earlier years, not the later ones.
.
There's one other thing I can think of.
July 14, 2015
Danny Green signs his first eight figure deal.
And his percentages immediately go in the tank.
Dude, am I wrong?
![[Account Deleted] Avatar](http://storage.proboards.com/5589790/avatar/ZhaFVHTxVPwmyuOiOKEd.png)
