mafia win-loss records through game 15
Aug 22, 2017 8:57:22 GMT -6
[Account Deleted], Heynong Man, and 4 more like this
Post by eric on Aug 22, 2017 8:57:22 GMT -6
I tallied up everyone's wins and losses in mafia so far.
Because neutrals have complicated win conditions that aren't always revealed, I didn't count any neutral game as anything.
If a player was admin killed as town or mafia and their team ended up winning, I counted it as a loss. This only came up once (odin game 10).
The town has won 9 of the 15 games. Since the town has had such an advantage, I also calculated an adjusted winning percentage (denoted W%+ in the following table) that took into account a player's proportion of games played as mafia (denoted maf% and again, ignoring neutral games). If a player's actual winning percentage was exactly equal to their expected winning percentage, their W%+ is 100. Higher means better, lower means worse. I'll do examples later to illustrate this.
Here are the raw numbers:
There have been 13 regulars who have played at least ten games as town or mafia, of the other 8 the most games played is six. Here is a table of their performance sorted by W%, W%+ and maf% respectively:
Pete and 20s have the same W% and W%+ because they have both played exactly 3 games as mafia and 10 as town. Pete has one neutral game that is ignored for this calculation. Billy and GBG have the same W% but GBG's W%+ is higher because he has played 1/3 of his games as mafia compared to Billy playing 1/5 of his.
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I also kept track of how many days each player survived each game. Since not all games lasted the same amount of days, I also kept track of the percentage of a given game's days each player survived, which when divided by their total games played gives the value daypct/g. If a player survived the whole game every game, this value would be 1. If they died before the game started every game, it would be 0.
And here is the chart sorted by daypct/g for the thirteen regulars:
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Any thoughts or questions welcome!
Because neutrals have complicated win conditions that aren't always revealed, I didn't count any neutral game as anything.
If a player was admin killed as town or mafia and their team ended up winning, I counted it as a loss. This only came up once (odin game 10).
The town has won 9 of the 15 games. Since the town has had such an advantage, I also calculated an adjusted winning percentage (denoted W%+ in the following table) that took into account a player's proportion of games played as mafia (denoted maf% and again, ignoring neutral games). If a player's actual winning percentage was exactly equal to their expected winning percentage, their W%+ is 100. Higher means better, lower means worse. I'll do examples later to illustrate this.
Here are the raw numbers:
name W L W% W%+ maf%
20s 9 5 .643 115 .214
ankly 0 1 .000 0 1.000
bankz 5 6 .455 81 .182
billy 4 6 .400 71 .200
canes 3 3 .500 100 .500
delap 7 7 .500 90 .214
duc 3 1 .750 150 .500
eric 2 2 .500 91 .250
fecta 7 6 .538 95 .154
gbg 6 9 .400 75 .333
herb 7 6 .538 92 .077
jhb 9 6 .600 110 .267
majic 3 1 .750 136 .250
odin 6 7 .462 83 .231
pete 9 5 .643 115 .214
rv 3 2 .600 100 .000
soup 6 7 .462 83 .231
spl 10 5 .667 119 .200
taco 1 2 .333 63 .333
timpig 8 6 .571 103 .214
yawn 2 0 1.000 200 .500There have been 13 regulars who have played at least ten games as town or mafia, of the other 8 the most games played is six. Here is a table of their performance sorted by W%, W%+ and maf% respectively:
name W% name W%+ name maf%
spl .667 spl 119 gbg .333
pete .643 pete 115 jhb .267
20s .643 20s 115 soup .231
jhb .600 jhb 110 odin .231
timpig .571 timpig 103 delap .214
fecta .538 fecta 95 pete .214
herb .538 herb 92 20s .214
delap .500 delap 90 timpig .214
soup .462 odin 83 spl .200
odin .462 soup 83 billy .200
bankz .455 bankz 81 bankz .182
billy .400 gbg 75 fecta .154
gbg .400 billy 71 herb .077Pete and 20s have the same W% and W%+ because they have both played exactly 3 games as mafia and 10 as town. Pete has one neutral game that is ignored for this calculation. Billy and GBG have the same W% but GBG's W%+ is higher because he has played 1/3 of his games as mafia compared to Billy playing 1/5 of his.
.
I also kept track of how many days each player survived each game. Since not all games lasted the same amount of days, I also kept track of the percentage of a given game's days each player survived, which when divided by their total games played gives the value daypct/g. If a player survived the whole game every game, this value would be 1. If they died before the game started every game, it would be 0.
name games days days/g daypct/g
20s 14 42 3.00 .528
ankly 1 2 2.00 .333
bankz 11 44 4.00 .687
billy 10 27 2.70 .469
canes 6 25 4.17 .754
delap 14 62 4.43 .738
duc 4 19 4.75 .762
eric 4 18 4.50 .695
fecta 13 55 4.23 .719
gbg 15 55 3.67 .598
herb 13 51 3.92 .681
jhb 15 65 4.33 .717
majic 4 13 3.25 .583
odin 13 30 2.31 .371
pete 14 61 4.36 .751
rv 5 14 2.80 .528
soup 13 52 4.00 .689
spl 15 61 4.07 .697
taco 3 14 4.67 .686
timpig 14 50 3.57 .623
yawn 2 10 5.00 .750And here is the chart sorted by daypct/g for the thirteen regulars:
name daypct/g
pete .751
delap .738
fecta .719
jhb .717
spl .697
soup .689
bankz .687
herb .681
timpig .623
gbg .598
20s .528
billy .469
odin .371.
Any thoughts or questions welcome!
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