Post by eric on Dec 29, 2017 19:47:50 GMT -6
Let's look at players to score ten or more points per game with sixty or more true shooting percentage (a measure that takes into account threes and free throws) in seasons where they played at least 1000 minutes.
The first one to do it is Wilt Chamberlain in 1967.
Then nobody did it until 1971, when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and The Great Johnny Green both did it. Green came to basketball late, entering the league as a 26 year old rookie. A double double machine, he was an All-Star three times for the plucky small town New York Knickerbockers before his career faded away as most do, eventually coming off the bench for the post-Wilt 76ers in his tenth year. Then he abruptly led the league in FG% two years in a row at age 36 and 37, to this day the oldest player to do so.
The feat became gradually more common into the 80s. There were simply more players, and a shot was introduced that was worth an extra point. The first team to put three such scorers together was the 1985 "Show Time" Lakers who added James Worthy at 60.1 TS% to frequent accomplishers Magic Johnson (9 times) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (11, tied for second most all-time). They repeated the feat in 1986, and are to date the only team to do it back to back.
The famed Big Three of Boston also managed it in 1988 with Bird, Parish, and McHale. The Celtics pulled it off again in 1991 but with the immortal Kevin Gamble in the place of Larry "Bird". It was by far the best year of Gamble's career and he never again placed in the top ten of FG%.
These occurrences peaked at 16 players in 1991 before abruptly declining all the way down to 3 in 1994: Reggie Miller (who did it 13 times in his career, most in NBA history), John Stockton (11, tied for second with Kareem and Steve Nash), and Shaquille O'Neal (like Wilt only did it 3 times). The short three era promptly spiked the number back up to 16 and the resumption of real threes just as promptly hammered it back down: in 2003 only two players reached the criteria, Eddy "Baby Shaq" Curry and Shaquille "Adult Eddy Curry" O'Neal.
.
I bring all this up because while the feat has again become more common after the de-Pistonification of basketball began in 2004, peaking at 25 last year, no team has broken the three man barrier. Not the Splash Brothers, not the Heatles, not the Spursgasms, nobody...
...until your 2018 Houston Rockets, who have a whopping five players on track to do so.
Harden has put up 60+ TS% in six of the last seven years and the one year he didn't it was 59.8%. He's a lock.
Paul has an outside chance of not making it to 1000 MP if he keeps having health problems, but if he plays the stats are a lock to be there.
Capela doesn't have the same track record but he crushed it last year and he's so far ahead even significant regression won't bring him under. Lock.
Now it gets sticky.
Ariza's never done it. He should be fine on volume but his best TS% is 59, and if he had missed two threes this year he'd be under.
Ryno has also never done it, although coincidentally his best TS% is 59.1%. He also has volume troubles - does Chris Paul playing full time take one shot a game from him? Congrats, he's at 9.7 PPG even if they're all twos, and it's not like his efficiency can get way better to make up for it.
The Rockets also have Nene at 63 TS% but he's only at 7.3 PPG, plus he's not even on track to make 1000 MP.
So I don't think they'll get five. I'm not confident they'll even get four, but if Ariza and Anderson are both coin flips that gives them a solid 75% chance of getting at least one.
.
Four other 2018 teams are currently at three:
Boston - Tatum / Horford / Irving, and I would guess none of them make it by season's end
Cleveland - LeBron / Love / Korver, and while Calderon is at 65 TS% he's at a stiff 4.5 PPG with Isaiah still gone so that's a big no.
Miami - Whiteside / Olynyk / Ellington, but they need James Johnson to jump from 58 to 60 TS% or Bam Adebayo to jump from 7 to 10 PPG and neither seems too likely.
And then there's Golden State, take a wild guess at their three, and while they hilariously have nine players at 60+ TS% the closest PPG is Omri Casspi's 7. What the Warriors do have a decent chance at is being the first team to have three players at 60+ TS% and 20+ PPG though. It would be Durant's seventh in a row and Curry's sixth so that's uh.. looking pretty likely. Klay is only barely making it at 20.6 PPG and 60.4 TS% though, and he's incredibly never quite had a 60+ TS% year: since 2015 he's gone 59.1%, 59.7%, and 59.2%. Even if he doesn't quite make 20 so long as he keeps 60 the Warriors will certainly break the record for most PPG of the low man in the trio:
That's it! Happy new year days!
The first one to do it is Wilt Chamberlain in 1967.
Then nobody did it until 1971, when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and The Great Johnny Green both did it. Green came to basketball late, entering the league as a 26 year old rookie. A double double machine, he was an All-Star three times for the plucky small town New York Knickerbockers before his career faded away as most do, eventually coming off the bench for the post-Wilt 76ers in his tenth year. Then he abruptly led the league in FG% two years in a row at age 36 and 37, to this day the oldest player to do so.
The feat became gradually more common into the 80s. There were simply more players, and a shot was introduced that was worth an extra point. The first team to put three such scorers together was the 1985 "Show Time" Lakers who added James Worthy at 60.1 TS% to frequent accomplishers Magic Johnson (9 times) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (11, tied for second most all-time). They repeated the feat in 1986, and are to date the only team to do it back to back.
The famed Big Three of Boston also managed it in 1988 with Bird, Parish, and McHale. The Celtics pulled it off again in 1991 but with the immortal Kevin Gamble in the place of Larry "Bird". It was by far the best year of Gamble's career and he never again placed in the top ten of FG%.
These occurrences peaked at 16 players in 1991 before abruptly declining all the way down to 3 in 1994: Reggie Miller (who did it 13 times in his career, most in NBA history), John Stockton (11, tied for second with Kareem and Steve Nash), and Shaquille O'Neal (like Wilt only did it 3 times). The short three era promptly spiked the number back up to 16 and the resumption of real threes just as promptly hammered it back down: in 2003 only two players reached the criteria, Eddy "Baby Shaq" Curry and Shaquille "Adult Eddy Curry" O'Neal.
.
I bring all this up because while the feat has again become more common after the de-Pistonification of basketball began in 2004, peaking at 25 last year, no team has broken the three man barrier. Not the Splash Brothers, not the Heatles, not the Spursgasms, nobody...
...until your 2018 Houston Rockets, who have a whopping five players on track to do so.
ppg ts% name
32.5 .625 James Harden
17.1 .626 Chris Paul
14.2 .687 Clint Capela
12.2 .606 Trevor Ariza
10.6 .604 Ryan AndersonHarden has put up 60+ TS% in six of the last seven years and the one year he didn't it was 59.8%. He's a lock.
Paul has an outside chance of not making it to 1000 MP if he keeps having health problems, but if he plays the stats are a lock to be there.
Capela doesn't have the same track record but he crushed it last year and he's so far ahead even significant regression won't bring him under. Lock.
Now it gets sticky.
Ariza's never done it. He should be fine on volume but his best TS% is 59, and if he had missed two threes this year he'd be under.
Ryno has also never done it, although coincidentally his best TS% is 59.1%. He also has volume troubles - does Chris Paul playing full time take one shot a game from him? Congrats, he's at 9.7 PPG even if they're all twos, and it's not like his efficiency can get way better to make up for it.
The Rockets also have Nene at 63 TS% but he's only at 7.3 PPG, plus he's not even on track to make 1000 MP.
So I don't think they'll get five. I'm not confident they'll even get four, but if Ariza and Anderson are both coin flips that gives them a solid 75% chance of getting at least one.
.
Four other 2018 teams are currently at three:
Boston - Tatum / Horford / Irving, and I would guess none of them make it by season's end
Cleveland - LeBron / Love / Korver, and while Calderon is at 65 TS% he's at a stiff 4.5 PPG with Isaiah still gone so that's a big no.
Miami - Whiteside / Olynyk / Ellington, but they need James Johnson to jump from 58 to 60 TS% or Bam Adebayo to jump from 7 to 10 PPG and neither seems too likely.
And then there's Golden State, take a wild guess at their three, and while they hilariously have nine players at 60+ TS% the closest PPG is Omri Casspi's 7. What the Warriors do have a decent chance at is being the first team to have three players at 60+ TS% and 20+ PPG though. It would be Durant's seventh in a row and Curry's sixth so that's uh.. looking pretty likely. Klay is only barely making it at 20.6 PPG and 60.4 TS% though, and he's incredibly never quite had a 60+ TS% year: since 2015 he's gone 59.1%, 59.7%, and 59.2%. Even if he doesn't quite make 20 so long as he keeps 60 the Warriors will certainly break the record for most PPG of the low man in the trio:
low ppg year team
17.6 1984-85 LAL
18.8 1985-86 LAL
14.3 1987-88 BOS
11.1 1989-90 GSW
14.9 1990-91 BOS
11.1 1990-91 IND
12.7 1994-95 SEA
15.7 2008-09 PHO
10.1 2009-10 BOS
13.2 2012-13 OKC
14.9 2016-17 DENThat's it! Happy new year days!
