The Challenge Thread: R + L = Jonna (1,240 views)

[Trofie]

I don't understand how people like Bananas

[Face-in]

I don't like Bananas, but I respect his athletic ability and the way he manipulates the idiots that come on these shows.

[Bruns]

I like bananas. Level headed and probably best player in the game. His cousin can get the fuck out.

[Face-in]

Jul 14, 2016 10:35:08 GMT -6 Bruns said:

I like bananas. Level headed and probably best player in the game. His cousin can get the fuck out.

Bananas although still pretty bad has mellowed out a lot.  He used to be a huge bitch and really cut throat.

I like to think CT using him as a backpack humbled him a little bit.

[Lazy Pete]

that is my all-time favorite challenge moment

[Bruns]

any other top 5 moments I should watch?

[Face-in]

Shauvon popping her breast implants

CT fighting/chasing Adam

You can watch some past seasons on youtube and amazon.

[Lazy Pete]

Darrell punching Brad is an all timer

[Face-in]

TJ is a savage

[Bruns]

Lol sorry about your titties

[Lazy Pete]

[Lazy Pete]

[Face-in]

1:50 starts the CT/Adam fight

[Bruns]

Jul 14, 2016 18:33:49 GMT -6 Face-in said:

1:50 starts the CT/Adam fight

Holy shit. 

[Mad King]

Love CT

[Mad King]

His real world Paris was grear...especially the lie about the roses

[Lazy Pete]

I spent a lot of time last night searching for other challenge moments but they are surprisingly absent from youtube for the most part

[Face-in]

Zach's such an asshole. I don't care that he's tall and handsome with a rockin bod, he's dead to me.

[Druce]

Vince is a massive tool, though we didn't need last nights episode to confirm that.

[Bruns]

Yeah fuck Vince. Not sure what his goal was other than to look like a racist fuck boy.

[eric]

I really like how Sarah has become the house mom that is the shoulder for everyone to cry on. It's nice to have at least one grown up around.

Nany's reactions are just the best, from her face when Dario rang the final bell, to consoling her cousin, to breaking down in interview. There's just no lying in her (also a nice change of pace from the rest of the Challenge).

Jul 21, 2016 6:34:53 GMT -6 Face-in said:

Zach's such an asshole. I don't care that he's tall and handsome with a rockin bod, he's dead to me.

100% he didn't know it was Jenna when he called her Brooke. He's also the guy who ghosted on Jonna, but is otherwise quite charming. It's a really bizarre combination of behaviors.

Jul 21, 2016 6:55:10 GMT -6 Druce said:

Vince is a massive tool, though we didn't need last nights episode to confirm that.

It occurred to me last night that Vince is the perfect alliance for Bananas. He's loyal, he's good enough to win a challenge here or there but a layup in the Final, and he's a lightning rod for negative attention, which is Bananas' biggest weakness (because he's a pretty big tool too). Think of how Vince justified his behavior towards Cheyenne with the plural: 'if you give us an opening WE're going to attack that etc.' Think of how Bananas starts it and lets Vince escalate it, as he did with Camila, then acts as the voice of reason.

[eric]

Chances the remaining challengers scumbag their partner if given the opportunity:
1% Cheyenne, Devyn
5% Sarah
10% Bananas
20% Jenna (accidentally though)
100% Vince

My guess/hope is they have a double twist in store, and that if one tries to take all the money they both get nothing, or only their partner gets half, or something. It would just be very strange production to end the season on the celebration of an openly villainous move.

.

Letting Nicole/Dario pick the order was irrelevant. We can't know for sure because we didn't get past the first four picks, but if you think about it the only sensible way to do it is as follows:

1. First four players pick. If two blacks are drawn, great, we're done.
2. If no blacks were drawn, keep picking.
3. If exactly one black was drawn, remove one white cork from the bin and skip the team mate of the person who drew black.

Rule (3) is necessary for two reasons. We don't want the same team to pick both black corks because that would mean no elimination event. We also don't want only one black cork drawn for the same reason, and if we leave four corks in and skip one then it's possible for the black cork to be the one left. It makes the arithmetic slightly more complicated but it all still works:

first ball first black
t1 t2 t3 t4
1   2/8   b
1   1/7   b






1 1 0 0   1/28

1   2/8   b
  6/7   w
1   1/6   b





1 0 1 0   1/28

1   2/8   b
  6/7   w
  5/6   w
1   1/5   b




1 0 0 1   1/28

1   2/8   b
  6/7   w
  5/6   w
  4/5   w
  skip
1   1/3   b


1 1 0 0   1/21

1   2/8   b
  6/7   w
  5/6   w
  4/5   w
  skip
  2/3   w
1   1/2   b

1 0 1 0   1/21

1   2/8   b
  6/7   w
  5/6   w
  4/5   w
  skip
  2/3   w
  1/2   w
1   1         b
1 0 0 1   1/21
This adds up to 3/28 + 3/21 chance for team 1 to be in (reduces to 1 out of 4) and 1/28 + 1/21 chance for any of teams 2 through 4 to be in (reduces to 1 out of 12). We can repeat this process for every first black possibility:

second ball first black
  6/8     w
1   2/7   b
1   1/6   b





0 1 1 0   1/28

  6/8     w
1   2/7   b
  5/6   w
1   1/5   b




0 1 0 1   1/28

  6/8     w
1   2/7   b
  5/6   w
  4/5   w
1   1/3   b



1 1 0 0   1/21

  6/8     w
1   2/7   b
  5/6   w
  4/5   w
  2/3   w
  skip
1   1/2   b

0 1 1 0   1/21

  6/8   w
1   2/7   b
  5/6   w
  4/5   w
  2/3   w
  skip
  1/2   w
1 1         b
0 1 0 1   1/21


third ball first black
  6/8   w
  5/7   w
1   2/6   b
1   1/5   b




0 0 1 1   1/28

  6/8   w
  5/7   w
1   2/6   b
  4/5   w
1   1/3   b



1 0 1 0   1/21


  6/8   w
  5/7   w
1   2/6   b
  4/5   w
  2/3   w
1   1/2   b


0 1 1 0   1/21

  6/8   w
  5/7   w
1   2/6   b
  4/5   w
  2/3   w
  1/2   w
  skip
1   1         b
0 0 1 1   1/21


fourth ball first black
  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
1   2/5   b
1   1/3   b



1 0 0 1   1/21

  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
1   2/5   b
  2/3   w
1   1/2   b


0 1 0 1   1/21

  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
1   2/5   b
  2/3   w
  1/2   w
1   1         b

0 0 1 1   1/21


fifth ball first black
  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
  3/5   w
1   2/4   b
1   1/3   b


1 1 0 0   1/28

  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
  3/5   w
1   2/4   b
  2/3   w
1   1/2   b

1 0 1 0   1/28

  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
  3/5   w
1   2/4   b
  2/3   w
  1/2   w
1   1         b
1 0 0 1   1/28


sixth ball first black
  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
  3/5   w
  2/4   w
1   2/3   b
1   1/2   b

0 1 1 0   1/28

  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
  3/5   w
  2/4   w
1   2/3   b
  1/2   w
1   1         b
0 1 0 1   1/28


seventh ball first black
  6/8   w
  5/7   w
  4/6   w
  3/5   w
  2/4   w
  1/3   w
1   1         b
1   1         b
0 0 1 1   1/28
This gives us total values (left unreduced for demonstrative purposes) of...
b / tm   1               2         3       4
1   7/28     1/21+1/28   1/21+1/28   1/21+1/28
2   1/21   6/28   1/21+1/28   1/21+1/28
3   1/21   1/21   5/28   1/21+1/28
4   1/21   1/21   1/21   4/28  
5   3/28   1/28   1/28   1/28
6           2/28   1/28   1/28
7                   1/28   1/28
All of which sum to 1/2; that is, every team has a 50/50 shot of going to the elimination regardless of their spot in the order.

Jessica is awesome

[Lazy Pete]

[Lazy Pete]

Jul 28, 2016 9:58:40 GMT -6 eric said:

My guess/hope is they have a double twist in store, and that if one tries to take all the money they both get nothing, or only their partner gets half, or something. It would just be very strange production to end the season on the celebration of an openly villainous move.

the classic format of this is that if both agree to split, then they split it. If both try to steal, they get nothing. If one tries to steal and one wants to split, the person who steals gets it all.

[Lazy Pete]

it's the prisoner's dilemma

[Face-in]

Love the twist.

Hated they only drew skulls for the final elimination challenge. Devin/Cheyenne making the finals is ridiculous.

[eric]

Jul 28, 2016 10:08:58 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

Jul 28, 2016 9:58:40 GMT -6 eric said:

My guess/hope is they have a double twist in store, and that if one tries to take all the money they both get nothing, or only their partner gets half, or something. It would just be very strange production to end the season on the celebration of an openly villainous move.

the classic format of this is that if both agree to split, then they split it. If both try to steal, they get nothing. If one tries to steal and one wants to split, the person who steals gets it all.

yes but in this case only one person gets to choose, which is why i think there's another twist in store.

Jul 28, 2016 10:09:20 GMT -6 Face-in said:

Love the twist.

Hated they only drew skulls for the final elimination challenge. Devin/Cheyenne making the finals is ridiculous.

I didn't really mind this, and I didn't mind it all once we saw how solid D/C were in the first leg of the final. The only alternative at this point was Dario, so.

The wrinkle that every leg is going to be gender neutral is catastrophic for Vince/Jenna, whose only strength is that they have much more brute strength than any other same-gender competitor. I never took them seriously as a contender anyway, but certainly not at this point. I guess it'll be some consolation to Jenna that Vince only tries to steal $12,500 from her, or it would be if she understood that $12,500 < $137,500.

[eric]

what a garbage ending

how can there be no twist? we end the season on sarah sobbing incoherently? yeesh.

i'll admit i underestimated Vince, both his cardio and his not being that much of a scumbag.

seriously, what a garbage ending.

[Lazy Pete]

This season was such a snoozer. Bananas and Sarah were so much better than anybody else from day 1.

[Lazy Pete]

Plus there was no doubt Bananas was going to take it. He's such a shithead