Post by eric on Jun 20, 2016 10:29:36 GMT -6
Final Finals on/off for all players with 100+ MP, given in points per 100 possessions:
As was the case throughout the regular season, the Cavs were better with Love on the court than on the bench. So much for match-ups.
.
Game 7.
In the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors put up 1.38 points per open shot attempt and .74 per contested shot attempt, winning the game 96 to 88. The Thunder only contested 46% of Warrior shots compared to 54% in the first four games of the series. "Aha!" you may cry, "if the Thunder had defended better they would have won!" Alas, no. Changing the parameters that way would result in a total of 87 points scored on field goal attempts, which in addition to the 5 points scored on free throw attempts would still be enough to overcome the Thunder. If we instead change the parameter for open shot attempt to the 1.14 the Warriors generated in the first four games, they score only 81 points on field goal attempts, giving them a total of only 86, and they lose.
The Thunder did not defend as well in game seven as in the first half of the series, but even if they had it wouldn't have mattered. What mattered was that the Warriors shot worse than average on open shots in the first four games, better than average in the last three games, and much much better in game seven. The Thunder cannot possibly defend open shots better or worse from game to game, because by definition open shots are not defended at all.
In the Finals we see a similar pattern. The Warriors scored 1.21 points per open shot in the first four games, then only 1.12 in the last three. None of these differences are statistically significant, even though they alter the course of history: contracts, legacies, franchises, all rise and fall on whether Harrison Barnes hits one more or less open jumper every two weeks.
.
How Did the Cavs Win?
They Got Lucky.
80 Kyrie Irving
48 LeBron James
46 J.R. Smith
32 Tristan Thompson
31 Leandro Barbosa
28 Draymond Green
25 Andre Iguodala
10 Shaun Livingston
6 Kevin Love
-3 Richard Jefferson
-4 Stephen Curry
-27 Iman Shumpert
-29 Harrison Barnes
-51 Klay ThompsonAs was the case throughout the regular season, the Cavs were better with Love on the court than on the bench. So much for match-ups.
.
Game 7.
In the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors put up 1.38 points per open shot attempt and .74 per contested shot attempt, winning the game 96 to 88. The Thunder only contested 46% of Warrior shots compared to 54% in the first four games of the series. "Aha!" you may cry, "if the Thunder had defended better they would have won!" Alas, no. Changing the parameters that way would result in a total of 87 points scored on field goal attempts, which in addition to the 5 points scored on free throw attempts would still be enough to overcome the Thunder. If we instead change the parameter for open shot attempt to the 1.14 the Warriors generated in the first four games, they score only 81 points on field goal attempts, giving them a total of only 86, and they lose.
The Thunder did not defend as well in game seven as in the first half of the series, but even if they had it wouldn't have mattered. What mattered was that the Warriors shot worse than average on open shots in the first four games, better than average in the last three games, and much much better in game seven. The Thunder cannot possibly defend open shots better or worse from game to game, because by definition open shots are not defended at all.
In the Finals we see a similar pattern. The Warriors scored 1.21 points per open shot in the first four games, then only 1.12 in the last three. None of these differences are statistically significant, even though they alter the course of history: contracts, legacies, franchises, all rise and fall on whether Harrison Barnes hits one more or less open jumper every two weeks.
.
How Did the Cavs Win?
They Got Lucky.
