Post by eric on Aug 4, 2016 10:24:08 GMT -6
There's been some discussion of this in shout. First of all I want to link to the prior work I did on the subject. It's not necessary to know any of it but I'm going to cite its conclusions throughout. I went back the last eighteen years of draft classes testing free agency (3032 - 3015) because I have nine and then nine before that makes eighteen. I recorded the greed, resigning offer if any, and Win Shares accrued over the first four years for the lottery picks in each year. Note that there were a few players here and there who had their last year cut and so are recorded as a no resign even if they did offer to resign after three years. I didn't care.
Here are the composite figures:
My lotto players are in general worse, less greedy, more likely to offer resigns, and ask for more when they do. All of these differences are pretty slender. (N.B. The apparent paradox where my less greedy players want more money is because greed doesn't impact offering to resign in the first place, and the greed values listed are for all players, not just resigners. Over a large enough sample resigners and free agents will have equal greeds, but in this sample soup's FAs happened to be greedier than his resigners, whereas mine happened to be equal.)
I have shown in the past that worse players are more likely to offer to resign, declining to a minimum of 50% for the best players. This was done using Current Rating, which we do not have access to as GMs. I will use Win Shares as a proxy measure and bin players by rounding to the nearest ten WS:
As you can see, my tiers two through four players have been more likely to resign, but this difference is not statistically significant. The sample sizes are just too small, as made most clear in tier five. There were three tier fives in Soup's builds, two of whom resigned. There was one in mine, who did not. It would be absurd to conclude from that that my stars were less likely to resign, and it is exactly as absurd to conclude the reverse from tier four.
There is also the amount of resign to consider. Prior research has shown that the amount is a function of Current Rating and greed. Let us look at those players who resigned by Win Share tier and greed, and see if their resign amount matches up:
Pretty good! The only ones who really stand out are Epstein and Floyd, and I did observe a phenomenon where greed absolutely determined length of contract except for perimeter starters and non DC guys, so it makes sense that it would be two PGs who offered for shorter term deals. The other weird one is Mighty Mouse. My best guess there is a breakdown in the WS:CR relationship, but still I'm pretty happy with only one outlier.
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So that's it! There's no reason to believe anything has changed, it has just so happened that the stars I made randomly had less greed and more resigns.
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A couple tidbits:
Best class by far was 3023 with 284 combined WS. Larry Johnson, Matthew Lockhart, Sim Dump, Terrell Brandon, Dikembe Mutombo, Kevin Brooks, Kenny Anderson... an incredibly deep class. The 3032 class only managed 268, though it remains to be seen if anyone will have a Kevin Brooks style explosion later in his career. Could be Miner. Could be Ellis. Could be Hoyle. Probably won't be any of them though.
The worst class by a more narrow margin was 3026: Rose, Mayo, Love, and Robin Lopez combined for one quarter of one Win Share between them over their first four years. Also pretty bad was 3021 with only one tier three guy (the aforementioned Floyd) whose value of 26 was the lowest max in any class in the sample.
Funniest resign offer was Brad Daugherty and his five cumulative Win Shares wanting a max. Saddest was the great Walter Devlin offering to resign on a one year minimum... and getting turned down. His player ID has been haunted ever since: Jay McCarty, Nick Douglas, Brady Kerr, Absimov Houbregs, and some pipsqueak named Brian Newell. My advice is to stay away from #234 until we hit 5.0.
Here are the composite figures:
era ws greed resigns avg amt
soup 219 709 65 43,414,570
eric 181 634 75 46,573,367My lotto players are in general worse, less greedy, more likely to offer resigns, and ask for more when they do. All of these differences are pretty slender. (N.B. The apparent paradox where my less greedy players want more money is because greed doesn't impact offering to resign in the first place, and the greed values listed are for all players, not just resigners. Over a large enough sample resigners and free agents will have equal greeds, but in this sample soup's FAs happened to be greedier than his resigners, whereas mine happened to be equal.)
I have shown in the past that worse players are more likely to offer to resign, declining to a minimum of 50% for the best players. This was done using Current Rating, which we do not have access to as GMs. I will use Win Shares as a proxy measure and bin players by rounding to the nearest ten WS:
soup
tier resign% ±
0 61 20
1 70 15
2 43 19
3 43 26
4 42 28
5 67 54
eric
tier resign% ±
0 76 15
1 63 16
2 55 21
3 64 26
4 60 31
5 00 100
total
tier resign% ±
0 70 12
1 67 11
2 48 14
3 54 19
4 50 21
5 50 50As you can see, my tiers two through four players have been more likely to resign, but this difference is not statistically significant. The sample sizes are just too small, as made most clear in tier five. There were three tier fives in Soup's builds, two of whom resigned. There was one in mine, who did not. It would be absurd to conclude from that that my stars were less likely to resign, and it is exactly as absurd to conclude the reverse from tier four.
There is also the amount of resign to consider. Prior research has shown that the amount is a function of Current Rating and greed. Let us look at those players who resigned by Win Share tier and greed, and see if their resign amount matches up:
greed tier resign name
85 5 93750000 DeJuan Blair
71 5 93750000 Larry Johnson
97 4 93750000 Matthew Lockhart
94 4 93750000 Dikembe Mutombo
73 4 93750000 Julius Randle
67 4 93750000 Jesus Shuttlesworth
65 4 93750000 Jonas Valanciunas
55 4 93750000 Sandor Clegane
55 4 93750000 Frank Selvy
50 4 15706730* Jesse Epstein * three years
44 4 89421878 Elton Brand
9 4 80859375 Bob Cousy
7 4 78515625 Kyrie Irving
97 3 93750000 Joe Silvestri
87 3 93750000 Len Bias
79 3 93750000 Isiah Thomas
74 3 93750000 Lil Penny
70 3 93750000 Brook Lopez
66 3 93750000 Blake Griffin
59 3 93750000 Joel Embiid
57 3 93750000 Joe Smith
47 3 93750000 Dario Saric
42 3 73500000 Kevin McHale
26 3 73497398 Anfernee Hardaway
26 3 93750000 Damon Stoudamire
19 3 32049860* Darrell Floyd * four years
6 3 77343750 Tristan Thompson
1 3 71484375 Steve FrancisPretty good! The only ones who really stand out are Epstein and Floyd, and I did observe a phenomenon where greed absolutely determined length of contract except for perimeter starters and non DC guys, so it makes sense that it would be two PGs who offered for shorter term deals. The other weird one is Mighty Mouse. My best guess there is a breakdown in the WS:CR relationship, but still I'm pretty happy with only one outlier.
.
So that's it! There's no reason to believe anything has changed, it has just so happened that the stars I made randomly had less greed and more resigns.
.
.
A couple tidbits:
Best class by far was 3023 with 284 combined WS. Larry Johnson, Matthew Lockhart, Sim Dump, Terrell Brandon, Dikembe Mutombo, Kevin Brooks, Kenny Anderson... an incredibly deep class. The 3032 class only managed 268, though it remains to be seen if anyone will have a Kevin Brooks style explosion later in his career. Could be Miner. Could be Ellis. Could be Hoyle. Probably won't be any of them though.
The worst class by a more narrow margin was 3026: Rose, Mayo, Love, and Robin Lopez combined for one quarter of one Win Share between them over their first four years. Also pretty bad was 3021 with only one tier three guy (the aforementioned Floyd) whose value of 26 was the lowest max in any class in the sample.
Funniest resign offer was Brad Daugherty and his five cumulative Win Shares wanting a max. Saddest was the great Walter Devlin offering to resign on a one year minimum... and getting turned down. His player ID has been haunted ever since: Jay McCarty, Nick Douglas, Brady Kerr, Absimov Houbregs, and some pipsqueak named Brian Newell. My advice is to stay away from #234 until we hit 5.0.
