3040 Rookie Ladder (902 views)

[eric]

preseason and summer league

There were a lot of mixed messages between preseason and summer league, so I anticipate this ladder changing a lot over the course of the year.

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1. Paul Pierce



The Truth delivers. Elite scoring efficiency that projects to be even more so when his 3P% catches up to his 3PR. Very solid rebounder. Turnovers a little high but not too bad.

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2. Tyronn Lue



Hundley's seat is getting hot, hot, hot in Brook Jersey. Lue scorched summer league and while his preseason %s are bad his 3PR projects him to be slightly above average, which combined with his elite handling makes for a great prospect. The preseason rebounding is a little low but if that's the least of his worries he'll be in great shape.

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3. Dirk Nowitzki



Dirk is easily the most interesting prospect we've had in sim league. He's a big man who can score as efficiently as a perimeter player... but what does that mean for a team? Can you still have a championship caliber defense if your two defenders are a big and a wing instead of two bigs? What style of offense do you run to maximize efficiency? Do you completely invert the paradigm and run two offense bigs and two defense wings? All of these questions will be moot if he hits some home run TCs and maxes his shot blocking, of course, then it'll just be time for 5.0.

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4. Pat Garrity



Patty is very similar to the Dirk build, except he's SF eligible. He played PF in summer league though, and scored just as well there, but being three inches shorter than The Big Dirk and possessing even less than his modest level of shot blocking probably means his long term position is SF. Which is fine! An excellent rebounding and good scoring SF is not a bad thing to be, it's just not as interesting as Dirk.

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5. Raef LaFrentz



Long time readers will remember Raef LaFrentz as the eternal guinea pig in my attribute research, and after trying out every single attribute he has blossomed into a fine dilettante. If we were just looking at stats he'd be ahead of Dirk mostly due to his super elite rebounding, but Dirk's three ball, height, and age are compelling. Still, the Raefer's rebounding and jump shot set him apart in a class surprisingly high on scoring bigs with iffy shot blocking.

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6. Michael Olowokandi



The Candid Man was sensational in summer league but I'm pretty sure it was a mirage because his FT% was trash in both that and preseason. He's another great rebounder and reasonable shot blocker but if he doesn't get his efficiency up his scoring volume will make him unplayable.

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7. Ryan Bowen



A contract holdout in preseason kept his minutes very limited, but Bowen flashed elite shot blocking at the small forward position in summer league. The total package is a little odd with great ast:tov, limited scoring volume, and modest rebounding to go with super elite efficiency, and with nothing else to corroborate the data I can't put him any higher.

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8. Antawn Jamison



Another great scorer in summer league who fell off in a big way in the preseason. Also has a glaring lack of three point shooting, so he needs to recapture his form from two or score some massive shot blocking TCs to match his excellent rebounding.

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9. Mirsad Turkcan



Didn't play in summer league but I like the look of this fella. He was the most efficient scorer of any rookie in preseason, and he did it from the power forward position. With such poor shot blocking he's gonna have to, but he's interesting going forward at any rate.

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10. Chandler Chandler



Fason snags the best shot blocker in the class sleeper with the commish special. Might shoot too much to be a true d/r guy, but if he can approach his summer league efficiency he'd be elite.

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Unusually there were a bunch of other players I could have talked myself into putting on the low end of the ladder. These guys all had a great preseason or summer league and a terrible the other one, so they could end up in the top five or they could never sniff the ladder going forward. s/o to Tractor Traylor, Rafer Alston, Shammond Williams, Felipe Lopez, Rashard Lewis, and Julius Hodge that's it.

[MistleTacoe]

After Dirk's Summer League, one could make the argument that he should be higher. Happy with #3 though

[Deleted]

Who is gonna be the player that eric unreasonably hates on this season

[MistleTacoe]

Oct 31, 2016 12:16:06 GMT -6 @dumptime said:

Who is gonna be the player that eric unreasonably hates on this season

Clearly Vince Carter

[Deleted]

Vince doesnt get mentioned at all? Da fuck...

[20s Navidad]

Julius Hodge isn't a rookie.

[gbgalla24]

I'm hoping those preseason numbers for Jamison are down from the summer league numbers because he was out of position.

[Lazy Pete]

I was interested to see if Bowen's shot blocking was legit, he was the only guy on my Summit team capable of playing defense

[FectaDEEZ]

Troll hard.

[MJ]

Vinsanity

[eric]

day 30 update

First I wanna say there are a lot of DC shenanigans going on. I tried to catch 'em all but I may have missed some.

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1. Dirk Nowitzki - LR #3



If he's going to block shots like this he'll be MVP forever. I don't think he will but if he can end the year at two even you have to think he'll get to three with SC/RC/TC, and his scoring ain't going anywhere. He also saw a huge jump in rebounding from mediocre to very good compared to preseason/summer league, and again I don't think that'll maintain but if he can even be average at rebounding his rookie year he'll be unstoppable come year four.

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2. Tyronn Lue - LR #2



In most years Lue would be a runaway ROY favorite. Super elite jump shot, elite ast:tov, good volume, very good defense. His only flaw is rebounding, and that's compounded by it not growing very much for point guards, but those are the breaks. He's also got room to grow in three point shot but that grows naturally so is not a concern. His preseason was bad but he was a backup so it's looking like a trick of small sample size.

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3. Paul Pierce - LR #1



In most years Pierce would be a runaway ROY favorite too. After a forgettable summer league he's been a sublime scorer ever since. The volume looks like an issue at first glance but then you notice he's a non option in an inside offense and he's still putting up 23 per 36. His volume will be just fine. Like Lue he has a flaw unlikely to be solved naturally in turnovers and room to grow in the three ball, but he's already a solid rebounder and defender. Great prospect. Great top three.

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4. Rashard Lewis - LR unranked



Rashard's not bad at all, but he's nowhere near the top three. His numbers right now are a less voluminous version of the Captain without the turnover problems, but he's being played at PF so those blocks and to a lesser extent rebounds are a mirage, and his preseason was horrendous so I think the gap between him and Pierce is pretty substantial. Still, even though he's not great at anything he's not bad at anything, which is a good place to start. I hope Trofie was happy with Danny Granger because now he's got two.

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5. Michael Olowokandi- LR #6



Candid Camera kept up the blocks and saw his efficiency surge above league average, which is critical for a guy who shoots as much as he does. He's also the best rebounder in the class and by a pretty clear margin (on both sides) the second best big. I feel like he needs to goose the efficiency or blocks a bit higher to really help a team, and the blocks at least should come naturally.

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6. Bonzi Wells - LR unranked



Bonzi's a knockoff Pierce right down to the turnover issues. Unlike Pierce he's a second option in an outside offense, but he also has Gerald Henderson and Joey Two Phones taking all the shots, so on aggregate I feel like their volume true talent levels are reasonably close. Bonzi wasn't as good before the season and there's a distinct defense gap between height and blocks so I don't think top three is in the cards for him, but #4 is possible.

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7. Derek Vinyard - LR unranked



First the software takes out Jesse for the year and now this, smdh. Vinyard's biggest selling point is his PG eligibility, the stats he's putting up as a SG are good but not that compelling. He's not going to be the next Theus by any means but he could be very solid at PG.

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8. Raef LaFrentz- LR #5



Efficiency dipped in a big way. The sample size was pretty decent in preseason, I don't know which way he's gonna go in the future. If he scores like preseason his blocks are a concern but not a dealbreaker. If he scores like this he's unplayable. To be continued, but not for long if he doesn't turn it around.

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9. Keon Clark- LR unranked



The commish put it to shout whom to draft for the then compu-Nuggs and I lobbied for Clark; you're welcome. The big fella has all the earmarks of a very good d/r big. Already at 3 blocks and 11.5 boards per 36, scores under 5 a game, has a bit of a turnover problem but not an unmanageable one.

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10. Chandler Chandler- LR #10



The commish special is still the best shot blocker in the class, but even considering he's in an inside offense he's a non option, and 17 points per 36 is a lot to be putting up on such awful %s. He didn't shoot this much but he shot too much in preseason too. It's a concern. You can't teach not shooting, a guy either has it or he doesn't.

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Previously ranked:
Pat Garrity, Antawn Jamison - scoring went in the tank
Ryan Bowen - he's close. 3PR really doesn't like his scoring, and at this point in the season I don't like going on just summer league.
Mirsad Turkcan - went unsigned, I signed him today, he's probably not gonna play.

[MistleTacoe]

Still No Vince Carter

Dirk

[20s Navidad]

Nov 4, 2016 10:05:16 GMT -6 eric said:

3. Paul Pierce - LR #1



In most years Pierce would be a runaway ROY favorite too. After a forgettable summer league he's been a sublime scorer ever since. The volume looks like an issue at first glance but then you notice he's a non option in an inside offense and he's still putting up 23 per 36. His volume will be just fine. Like Lue he has a flaw unlikely to be solved naturally in turnovers and room to grow in the three ball, but he's already a solid rebounder and defender. Great prospect. Great top three.

FWIW Pierce has been the #1 option all season.  I wasn't gonna let him have those shitty bigs as his options, the rule says best scorers must be your options so the Hawks options are 1. Pierce 2. Felton 3. MKG... I probably should have posted that in his thread, I posted all the other stuff I didn't let people get away with.

[Trofie]

Lewis is great

[MJ]

Harpring is a hero

[eric]

day 60 update

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1. Dirk Nowitzki - LR #1



Shut it down! Dirk's shot blocking fell off a little but he's nowhere near Blake Griffin range and his scoring is and will always be phenomenal.

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2. Tyronn Lue - LR #2



The Eratosthenes of 3040, he's forever stuck at number two. Not the worst thing in the world.

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3. Paul Pierce - LR #3



Turns out he's been the number one option this whole time, which takes a lot of the shine out of his prospects. I was rooting for him. WE WERE ALL ROOTING FOR HIM. Still, aside from the turnovers he's a solid all around guy, so only the volume really needs work for him to become a true star.

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4. Derek Vinyard - LR #7



Climbing the charts as his numbers become less and less likely to be a mirage. He's no Alredick Hughes or anything but deploying this kind of scoring and rebounding at point guard is just gonna be awesome, and moving him there ASAP will probably TC his turnovers from "Neo Nazi" all the way down to "Trump supporter". #politics

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5. Rashard Lewis - LR #4



Still doing his thing. No weaknesses and no elite skills. Could put him on any team and it would get better, but if he's your best player you'll be lucky to get out of the first round. It'll be very interesting to see how his first SC/RC shakes out, it'll go a long way towards telling us how high his ceiling can be above his very high floor.

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6. Shammond Williams - LR unranked



Slick scorer, good passer, reasonable defender. The only thing holding him back is his scoring volume and rebounding. The egalitarian Miami ethos may explain part of it, but an elite guy should be able to get 20 per 36 under any circumstances. There's still time.

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7. Rafer Alston - LR unranked



Rafer "Don't Call Me Raef" Alston had a terrible time scoring the basketball in the basketball hoop to generate points for his basketball team before the season, but he's always had great ast/tov numbers and in limited time his efficiency has been excellent. My guess is he regresses to a little below league average efficiency, which probably won't be enough to maintain him on the ladder, but we'll see.

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8. Robert Newton - LR unranked



Bobby has an interesting build. Not interesting good, but not interesting bad either. For a shooting guard he's probably a great shot blocker, probably a terrible rebounder, probably terrible handling, and probably a good to very good scorer. I don't know where you go from there, but it's an interesting foundation even if it is very unusual.

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9. Keon Clark- LR #9



The only d/r guy remaining on the ladder because he's the only one who's still d-ing without taking a million shots. To be clear though, he's legitimately good as a d/r man.

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10. Stephan Brandon - LR unranked



A new boy with an interesting story. I mentioned earlier how the commish asked shout whom the Nuggets should draft at 1.15 and I suggested Keon Clark, wow, what credentials. Well the reason 20s asked in the first place was that he autoed the pick and it came up with this guy, who was deemed unsuitable, and so like any other undrafted player he was available in free agency, where Odin got him on a min. He was an okay scorer and poor defender in preseason, but in a hundred minutes he was an exceptional scorer (and poor defender) in the reg, AND he's SF eligible, AND Odin just cut him so a tanker should probably snap him up.

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previously ranked
Michael O'Lowokandi, Bonzi Wells - efficiency dipped
Raef LaFrentz - efficiency cratered
Chandler Chandler - efficiency unchanged, but just shooting way too much

[FectaDEEZ]

I would take Lue over Dirk 10/10 times.

[MistleTacoe]

Nov 8, 2016 10:39:51 GMT -6 FectaDEEZ said:

I would take Lue over Dirk 10/10 times.

Having a top tier PG is more important than having a badass PF

[FectaDEEZ]

Nov 8, 2016 11:27:36 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Nov 8, 2016 10:39:51 GMT -6 FectaDEEZ said:

I would take Lue over Dirk 10/10 times.

Having a top tier PG is more important than having a badass PF

Exactly.

[eric]

Nov 8, 2016 11:27:36 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Nov 8, 2016 10:39:51 GMT -6 FectaDEEZ said:

I would take Lue over Dirk 10/10 times.

Having a top tier PG is more important than having a badass PF

there's a PG just as good as Lue on the Nets right now, and a dozen similar PGs throughout the league

there's nobody in the league like Dirk, and the closest historical precedent is a more efficient scoring Myles Turner with less defense, who carried the Bobcats to 50 wins for a decade with no supporting cast whatsoever.

[Heebs]

Nov 8, 2016 11:53:27 GMT -6 eric said:

Nov 8, 2016 11:27:36 GMT -6 MistleTacoe said:

Having a top tier PG is more important than having a badass PF

there's a PG just as good as Lue on the Nets right now

You wouldn't think so based on the offers I've received.

[Deleted]

Lue as a rookie is a top 10 PG right now

[Odin]

most of brandon's minutes were at sf

[20s Navidad]

:X

[Lazy Pete]

Vince Carter over Everybody

[Trofie]

Lewis shooting 48% as a rookie PF = no elite skills

[eric]

day 90 update

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1. Dirk Nowitzki - LR #1



Simply the best.

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2. Tyronn Lue - LR #2



Efficiency hasn't lived up to its original promise, but starting at league average with elite ast/tov and plus volume is great.

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3. Shammond Williams - LR #6



Sham is wowing with his efficiency, and his ast/tov is holding steady at pretty good too. Needs to work on the boards, defense, and volume.

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4. Rashard Lewis - LR #5



Still getting it done with an all around game. A couple boom TCs and his three point ratio should come way up, but even if he strikes out he'll be a solid guy.

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5. Paul Pierce - LR #3



The captain is slipping. Society's slipping. Everything's slipping away, so... go ahead. Run away. Say it was horrible. Spread the word. Tell a friend. Tell them the tale. Vote a five. Do a like. Paul Pierce is over with.

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6. Keon Clark- LR #9



The d/r man takes a big jump because I just don't trust any of these other humps.

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7. Rafer Alston - LR #7



He's still incendiary so far in the regular season, but he was so bad in preseason in pretty much the same number of minutes and completely no showed summer league. He's shown enough to get on the ladder, but not to climb.

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8. Derek Vinyard - LR #4



Started out so tough but the later stages of his campaign have seen one defeat after another. Needs a couple plus TCs in three point shooting and handling.

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9. Robert Newton - LR #8



This spot could just as easily have gone to Ryan Bowen for the wing player with elite shot blocking potential. Both have seen their scoring dip precipitously and it's possible neither make the year end ladder if they don't step it up.

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10. Vince Carter - LR unranked



What a long strange trip it's been. Vince still isn't at league average scoring, but his Jump Shot SC has finally paid dividends and gotten his FT% high enough that three point ratio projects him there. At the same time, he's not giving you anything else and the volume is probably a mirage, so one cold streak and he's back off.

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previously ranked
Stephan Brandon - scoring slipped

[FectaDEEZ]

Vince finally made it! You dont think his almost two steals is pretty solid for a rookie ?

[MistleTacoe]

I was honestly hoping that Eric would hold off and put Vince in his final rankings as an honorable mention.

Fecta....Vince is a great rookie. He deserves to be in the top 10. He probably deserves to be in the top 3. You've got a good one.

[eric]

Nov 12, 2016 12:22:34 GMT -6 FectaDEEZ said:

Vince finally made it! You dont think his almost two steals is pretty solid for a rookie ?

for whatever reason, heavyreign made the software such that blocks are incredibly important and steals aren't. obviously you'd rather have steals than not have steals, but the presence of steals alone isn't enough to demonstrate being a good defender.