When's the Last Time I Drafted My/A First Rounder?
Mar 1, 2017 15:26:55 GMT -6
2poor, kn88, and 1 more like this
Post by eric on Mar 1, 2017 15:26:55 GMT -6
I went back and tracked all the times each team drafted in the first round with its own pick and with any pick from 00 to 44. Here are the totals:
Every team has traded for a first round pick they used at some point, so every entry in the "any" column is greater than the "own".
There are five teams who did so at least eleven times (11 Bobcats, 12 Bulls, 17 Kings, 17 Nets, 19 Raptors), five teams who did so three times (Hornets, Pacers, Timberwolves, Spurs, Bullets) and the Heat have only done so twice.
We can compute an activity score by subtracting the gap between the two columns from the own column; that is, the more a team trades its own first away and the more it trades for other firsts. With a smaller number denoting more activity, we get:
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Now let's look at the question that actually spawned this research (h/t kn88): what's the longest a team has gone without drafting in the first round, either with its own pick or someone else's?
own pick
24 years, Kansas City, 3017-3040, broken by Terry Dischenger
23 years, Brooklyn, 3014-3036, broken by Uwe Blab and right back into a streak currently at 7 years
16 years, Thunder, 3002-3017, broken by Buck Williams
12 years, Suns, 3014-3025, broken by Jerryd Bayless
12 years, Raptors, 3031-3042, broken by Markelle Fultz
11 years, Bullets, 3034-3044, broken earlier today by Tim Duncan
11 years, Rockets, 3009-3019, broken by Darrell Floyd
The longest active streaks are currently Phoenix with 10 (1.6), New York with 9 (1.27 already traded), Nets with 7 (1.26 already traded), and Houston with 7 (1.25 already traded).
The same analysis including anyone's picks is far shorter. The current Phoenix and Washington streaks are the only to reach ten and both are probably over. The only other streak to even reach eight was Portland from 3020-3027.
.
We can also look at the question the opposite way: what's the longest streak a team has had picking in the first round, either with its own pick or someone else's?
own pick
13 years, Hornets, 3006-3018, broken by the Clyde Drexler trade
13 years, Timberwolves, 3021-3033, broken for 2000 dump bucks
13 years, Hornets, 3023-3035, broken by the Paul Arizin trade
10 years, Pacers, 3009-3018, broken by the Phil Lovelette trade
10 years, Bullets, 3024-3033, broken by the Kevin Garnett trade
Yes! The Bullets immediately went from one of the longest streaks of using their own pick to one of the longest streaks of not doing so.
The analysis for using any pick is pretty much the same. The Bulls just broke the record 16 year streak last year with the Andre Drummond trade, then it's the same three 13 yearers plus a Thunder stretch from 3023-3035 broken by the Cal Cheaney trade.
Current active highs are the Magic with 7 years of using their own pick and the Jazz with 10 years of using any pick. Currently the Magic still have their 1.12 and the Jazz have no firsts.
raw data
own any team
21 28 ATL
21 28 BOS
12 29 BRO
33 36 CHA
21 33 CHI
20 30 CLE
26 32 DEN
19 29 GS
12 17 HOU
28 31 IND
11 28 KC
16 20 LAC
17 25 LAL
11 22 MEM
29 31 MIA
14 29 MIL
29 32 MIN
19 25 NY
20 29 OKC
24 29 ORL
13 18 PHI
11 15 PHO
14 20 POR
16 19 SA
23 28 SEA
12 31 TOR
21 28 UTA
22 31 VAN
23 26 WASEvery team has traded for a first round pick they used at some point, so every entry in the "any" column is greater than the "own".
There are five teams who did so at least eleven times (11 Bobcats, 12 Bulls, 17 Kings, 17 Nets, 19 Raptors), five teams who did so three times (Hornets, Pacers, Timberwolves, Spurs, Bullets) and the Heat have only done so twice.
We can compute an activity score by subtracting the gap between the two columns from the own column; that is, the more a team trades its own first away and the more it trades for other firsts. With a smaller number denoting more activity, we get:
AS team AS team
14 ATL -7 TOR
14 BOS -5 BRO
-5 BRO -5 KC
30 CHA -1 MIL
9 CHI 0 MEM
10 CLE 7 HOU
20 DEN 7 PHO
9 GS 8 PHI
7 HOU 8 POR
25 IND 9 CHI
-5 KC 9 GS
12 LAC 9 LAL
9 LAL 10 CLE
0 MEM 11 OKC
27 MIA 12 LAC
-1 MIL 13 NY
26 MIN 13 SA
13 NY 13 VAN
11 OKC 14 ATL
19 ORL 14 BOS
8 PHI 14 UTA
7 PHO 18 SEA
8 POR 19 ORL
13 SA 20 DEN
18 SEA 20 WAS
-7 TOR 25 IND
14 UTA 26 MIN
13 VAN 27 MIA
20 WAS 30 CHA.
Now let's look at the question that actually spawned this research (h/t kn88): what's the longest a team has gone without drafting in the first round, either with its own pick or someone else's?
own pick
24 years, Kansas City, 3017-3040, broken by Terry Dischenger
23 years, Brooklyn, 3014-3036, broken by Uwe Blab and right back into a streak currently at 7 years
16 years, Thunder, 3002-3017, broken by Buck Williams
12 years, Suns, 3014-3025, broken by Jerryd Bayless
12 years, Raptors, 3031-3042, broken by Markelle Fultz
11 years, Bullets, 3034-3044, broken earlier today by Tim Duncan
11 years, Rockets, 3009-3019, broken by Darrell Floyd
The longest active streaks are currently Phoenix with 10 (1.6), New York with 9 (1.27 already traded), Nets with 7 (1.26 already traded), and Houston with 7 (1.25 already traded).
The same analysis including anyone's picks is far shorter. The current Phoenix and Washington streaks are the only to reach ten and both are probably over. The only other streak to even reach eight was Portland from 3020-3027.
.
We can also look at the question the opposite way: what's the longest streak a team has had picking in the first round, either with its own pick or someone else's?
own pick
13 years, Hornets, 3006-3018, broken by the Clyde Drexler trade
13 years, Timberwolves, 3021-3033, broken for 2000 dump bucks
13 years, Hornets, 3023-3035, broken by the Paul Arizin trade
10 years, Pacers, 3009-3018, broken by the Phil Lovelette trade
10 years, Bullets, 3024-3033, broken by the Kevin Garnett trade
Yes! The Bullets immediately went from one of the longest streaks of using their own pick to one of the longest streaks of not doing so.
The analysis for using any pick is pretty much the same. The Bulls just broke the record 16 year streak last year with the Andre Drummond trade, then it's the same three 13 yearers plus a Thunder stretch from 3023-3035 broken by the Cal Cheaney trade.
Current active highs are the Magic with 7 years of using their own pick and the Jazz with 10 years of using any pick. Currently the Magic still have their 1.12 and the Jazz have no firsts.
raw data
own 3000 3001 3002 3003 3004 3005 3006 3007 3008 3009 3010 3011 3012 3013 3014 3015 3016 3017 3018 3019 3020 3021 3022 3023 3024 3025 3026 3027 3028 3029 3030 3031 3032 3033 3034 3035 3036 3037 3038 3039 3040 3041 3042 3043 3044
ATL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BOS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BRO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CHA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CHI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CLE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
DEN 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
GS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HOU 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IND 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
KC 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
LAC 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
LAL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MEM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIN 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
OKC 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ORL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PHI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PHO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
POR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SEA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TOR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
UTA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
VAN 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
WAS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
any
ATL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BOS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
BRO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CHA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CHI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CLE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
DEN 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
GS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HOU 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IND 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
KC 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
LAC 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
LAL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MEM 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MIN 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
OKC 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ORL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PHI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
PHO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
POR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SEA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TOR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
UTA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
VAN 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
WAS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 
