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Post by [Account Deleted] on Mar 9, 2017 9:35:05 GMT -6
All of us, except probably Eric, can sometimes fall victim to putting too much stock to what happens in a small sample size. Without further ado, here are Sim 1 overreactions for the Eastern Conference.
Eastern Conference: "All but three teams in the East are over .500, this conference is going to be a blood bath this year."
Why it's an overreaction: Teams like the Bullets (-11.3), Magic (-4.9), and Pacers (+2.1) may not be able to keep up the pace based on their early point differential numbers. If it stays this close, we may see a team or two pull the trigger on tanking which will thin out the playoff herd.
Why it's not an overreaction: There are really only three true tankers in the Eastern Conference this year, Memphis, Miami, and Washington. Washington is in the group at .500 because their starting bigs seem determined not to let KN88 ever have a high lotto pick again. Everyone else in the conference is making an earnest* attempt to be competitive and some good teams may be left out of the playoffs.
Toronto Raptors: "Holy god this team is so good but after seemingly having a plethora of perimeter players Sam Jones appears to have died and Markelle Fultz has had a little shine come off."
Why it's an overreaction: Sam Jones is a career 46% shooter and that will obviously regress to the mean while Fultz is clearly just the victim of not being a focus scorer and coming off the bench playing against bigger players as a supersub.
Why it's not an overreaction: Sam Jones is somewhere in age between dirt and sin and Fultz has seen a really big dip in usage despite coming off the bench. Maybe he can't play the 2 like many theorized he could in the offseason?
New Jersey Nets: "Why in the world is Diamond Stone playing so much? Heebs totally screwed up trading AD."
Why it's an overreaction: Hightower, Swanigan, and Bogut are a perfectly capable trio and Hebrew will probably end up adjusting the rotation.
Why it's not an overreaction: While those guys are perfectly capable, AD just put up 7 blocks a game in that first sim.
Chicago Bulls: "Andre Drummond, more like Godre Drummond."
Why it's an overreaction: His blocks and shooting percentage have dramatically increased so far this season and are likely to level out over the course of the season. His jump shot shouldn't be able to sustain field goal percentages like this.
Why it's not an overreaction: We've seen jumps in shot blocking out of talented bigs before and even if his shot-making regresses a little he's still a damn good scoring big.
Cleveland Cavaliers: "This team is old and decrepit, there's no way they can continue to play like this."
Why it's an overreaction: Jesse Epstein is still really good, Noel and Webber get stocks as well as any big duo in the league, and Elie isn't even playing up to his standard from last year yet.
Why its not an overreaction: Do sim old guys have the same injury issues as real life old guys?
New York Knicks: "Why did I pay for this guy's flight to Germany: The Ballad of GM Eric and Jimmy Jackson"
Why it's an overreaction: Jimmy's shooting percentages aren't up to his normal standards, but e're talking about perhaps the greatest scorer in 4.0 and he has the same grades as he did last season when he had a pretty good year.
Why it's not an overreaction: Early reports are that Jimmy is fed up with management and is putting up these numbers in protest.
Charlotte Hornets: "This is an awfully poor winning percentage and small point differential for a team that was predicted to win the East."
Why it's an overreaction: This is a division winner from last season mostly made up of young players. Delaney Rudd and Skoal seem to have gotten a little bit better.
Why it's not an overreaction: This GM is the one who predicted them to win the East.
Boston Celtics: "Oh my god Anthony Davis is going to shatter records for blocking shots this season."
Why it's an overreaction: Anthony Davis is a certified member of the swat team but there's no way this holds up over a season. It's way too far an outlier.
Why it's not an overreaction: It's definitely an overreaction. AD is a great shot blocker but he's consistently been around 4 blocks a game the last three seasons and the record is 4.9 by Moses Malone. I don't think he makes that big a jump.
Philadelphia 76ers: "Luke Ridnour is an early MVP favorite."
Why it's an overreaction: Tyronn Lue and Gilbert Arenas are still around.
Why it's not an overreaction: Luke Ridnour PG 7 40.7 30.7 3.0 12.0 2.9 0.6 2.0 .500 .864 .400
Indiana Pacers: "There's a lot to like on this team, but it's defense will be it's undoing."
Why it's an overreaction: They have a former DPOY in Ewing and go A+ A- A B+ B+ on defense across their starting lineup, and they just happened to play a handful of top-tier offenses in their first sim. Even if the defense is bad, the offense still looked really good in the first sim.
Why it's not an overreaction: They really don't get a whole lot of steals and blocks and they're allowing opponents to shoot 47.3% from the field and 41.1% from 3.
Atlanta Hawks: "Suck it Ike Diogu haters."
Why it's an overreaction: Yeah he's totally going to keep shooting at that percentage and having a big that only gets 1.5 blocks a game is a good thing.
Why it's not an overreaction: This is not an overreaction. This is sustainable. Everything's fine. I'm fine.
Washington Bullets: "Timmy Duncan brings winning culture back to Washington, says no to tanking."
Why it's an overreaction: Their point differential is still pretty bad. Expect them to slide back into the basement and be a high odds team.
Why it's not an overreaction: Because not only is Timmy Duncan bringing the pain, but so is Ben Bentil. Like I said, Timmy D is not only a star, he's a team player who makes the guys around him better. Too good to tank, in fact.
Orlando Magic: "Shaq is washed, so this two-player team is now a one-player team."
Why it's an overreaction: Johnathan Isaac is showing a little something and I don't expect Shaq continues to be this bad, right?
Why it's not an overreaction: He did this in the preseason too. Good luck trading that contract for something of value MJ.
Milwaukee Bucks: "But I was told this was the year Danny Granger and Dillon Brooks broke out. 
"
Why it's an overreaction: They aren't just underperforming the lofty expectation Duc established, they're underperforming versus their career average shooting percentages. Expect improvement in the future.
Why it's not an overreaction: Maybe they just aren't that good and that's why trofie quit. Quitter.
Memphis Bobcats: "Welcome your new corn-fed perimeter overlord...Keith Van Horn."
Why it's an overreaction: The stocks, especially steals, aren't overlord-ish. His 3 point percentage could be better. Not strong rebounds for a B+ rebounder. Still has B- defense. A potential could be a mirage. No I'm not salty Odin and I discussed a deal to swap 4 for 7 and 11 so I could move up and take this guy and I ended up with Tim Thomas and Adonal Foyle instead.
Why it's not an overreaction: This dude blew up in TC with a potential boost and is already playing at a very high level for a GM that will pump his grades up. He's definitely gonna be a good one.
Miami Heat: "Hey, Captain Jack might not be a bust..."
Why it's an overreaction: It's not really an overreaction. It's just a response to previous overreactions during TC, preseason, and summer league. It's far too early to give up on a player of this caliber.
Why it's not an overreaction: About 20 points, 2 steals on workable percentages per 36 before upgrades. You can work with that and he's still capable of putting together a monster TC and further beefing up his grades.
