[ti]draft[/ti]Chad Ford Big Board (353 views)

[[Account Deleted]]

This is my somewhat foolish attempt to rank all of the available prospects that have been created in the 3047 draft folder. Consider this Big Board 1.0. I am still tinkering with the methodology, and this spreadsheet has absolutely no finesse as far as what the players' production/reputation was in college, how 20's may build the player based on the profile write-up, different growth expectations for various attributes, etc.

As I continue to update the methodology, I will release new updates. Right now, I used the attribute minimums that Eric established in his "Attributes, The Absolute Final Word" article as well as creating numeric values for potential, player age, and height to create a weighted average for each player based on their age, size, grades, and potential.

This iteration seems to favor some borderline guys like Grant Long, Derrick Chievous, Dennis Fembo, and Nikola Jokic over some players that seem to be more widely popular on the draft board threads like Charles Smith and Rod Strickland. It really seems to hate the more traditional D/R build like a Will Perdue or Tito Horford. Point guards appear to be severely undervalued as well. I'm going to continue to tinker to see what can be improved in the formula to account for what is considered more valuable in the league.

Fortunately, the current iteration of the formula does seem to confirm that Rex Chapman will indeed be drafted by next Thursday. Without further ado:

BIG BOARD 1.0

Name Pos Height Weight Age In Out Hn Df Reb Pot Grade
Anthony Mason PF 6'7" 250 21 B C+ C C+ B A 86.1
Danny Manning PF 6'10" 240 23 B+ C+ C B- B- B 86.0
Dan Majerle SG 6'6" 215 23 B B B- C+ C+ B 85.1
Rik Smits C 7'4" 250 22 B+ C D A- B B 84.5
Grant Long PF 6'8" 225 20 B- C+ C- C+ B- A 84.3
Nikola Jokic C 6'10" 250 21 B+ C+ C+ C+ C+ A 84.1
Rex Chapman SG 6'4" 185 21 C+ B C+ B- C- A 83.5
Derrick Chievous SF 6'7" 195 21 B- B- C+ C+ B- B 82.6
Chris Morris SF 6'8" 210 22 B- C+ C+ B- B- A 82.1
Fennis Dembo SF 6'5" 215 22 C+ B- C B- B- B 82.1
Gary Grant PG 6'3" 185 23 B- B B B- C C 82.1
Mitch Richmond SG 6'5" 215 23 B- B C C C+ A 82.0
Willie Anderson SG 6'7" 190 21 B- C+ B- B+ C A 81.9
Ricky Berry SG 6'8" 205 24 C+ B+ C- C C+ B 80.6
Steve Kerr PG 6'3" 190 23 B- B+ C+ C+ D+ C 80.6
Brian Shaw PG 6'6" 190 22 C+ B- B+ C+ C+ B 80.6
Charles Smith SF 6'10" 230 23 B C+ C- B- B- B 80.6
Tom Tolbert SF 6'7" 235 23 B- B- D+ B- C+ C 80.4
Vinny Del Negro SG 6'4" 185 22 C+ B C+ C+ C- B 79.9
Hersey Hawkins SG 6'3" 190 22 B C+ C+ B- C+ B 79.7
David Rivers PG 6'0" 170 23 C B B- B- C- B 79.5
Kevin Edwards PG 6'3" 190 23 B B- B B- C+ D 79.4
Randolph Keys SF 6'7" 195 22 C+ B- C- C+ C+ B 79.4
Anthony Taylor PG 6'4" 175 23 B- B B- B- C- D 78.9
Keith Smart PG 6'1" 175 24 B- B B- C+ D+ C 78.9
Tom Garrick PG 6'2" 185 22 C+ B C+ B- C- C 78.8
Rod Strickland PG 6'3" 175 22 B- C+ C+ B C- A 78.5
Everette Stephens PG 6'2" 175 22 B- B- B- B- D+ C 78.1
Ricky Grace PG 6'1" 180 20 C+ B- B C+ D+ B 78.0
Winston Bennett SF 6'7" 210 23 B- C+ C+ C+ C+ B 77.4
Gerald Paddio SF 6'7" 205 22 C+ B- C- C+ C+ C 77.4
Jeff Grayer SG 6'5" 200 23 B- C+ C C+ B- B 77.2
Mark Bryant PF 6'9" 245 23 B- C C B- B- B 77.0
John Starks PG 6'3" 180 23 C B- B- B+ C- C 77.0
Micheal Williams PG 6'2" 175 22 C+ C+ B- B- D+ A 76.9
Corey Gaines SG 6'3" 195 23 B- B- C B- D+ C 76.8
Vernon Maxwell PG 6'4" 193 23 B- C+ B- C+ C+ B 76.6
Morlon Wiley PG 6'2" 185 22 B- B- B- C+ D+ C 76.6
Nate Johnston PF 6'8" 203 22 B- C C- C+ B B 76.0
Michael Anderson PG 5'11" 184 23 B- C+ B B- C C 75.4
Rolando Ferreira C 7'1" 240 24 B- C D+ B C+ C 75.3
Ledell Eackles SG 6'5" 220 22 B C+ C- C+ C B 75.2
Will Perdue C 7'0" 240 23 C C- C- B+ B B 74.9
Todd Mitchell SF 6'7" 205 22 B- C+ D+ C+ C+ C 74.8
Eric Leckner C 6'11" 265 22 B C D+ C+ C+ B 74.5
Dean Garrett C 6'10" 225 22 B C- D B C+ B 74.0
Tito Horford C 7'1" 245 22 C- C- C+ B+ B B 74.0
Jerome Lane PF 6'6" 230 22 B- C B- C+ B C 74.0
Tim Perry PF 6'9" 200 23 B D+ D+ A- B C 74.0
Andrew Lang C 6'11" 245 22 B D+ D B+ C+ B 72.9
Craig Neal PG 6'5" 165 24 C+ B- B C D C 72.9
Shelton Jones SF 6'9" 210 22 B- C C B- B- B 72.8
Harvey Grant SF 6'8" 195 23 B C C- C+ B B 72.5
Sylvester Gray SF 6'6" 230 21 B C C B- B- C 71.8
Rony Seikaly C 6'11" 230 23 B- D+ D B- B- B 71.3
Charles Shackleford C 6'10" 225 22 B D+ D+ C+ B- B 69.7
Orlando Graham PF 6'8" 220 23 B+ D+ D+ C+ B C 69.5
Rob Lock PF 6'9" 225 22 B C- D+ C+ C+ C 68.8
Greg Butler C 6'11" 240 22 B- C- D C+ C+ C 67.8
Barry Sumpter PF 6'11" 215 23 B- D D+ C+ B- B 66.2

[[Account Deleted]]

Going to do a Round 1 mock tomorrow to try and help refine the formula then I'll post a Big Board 2.0

[Deleted]

Charles Smith wayyyy too low

[Delap]

Bama too low

[[Account Deleted]]

Apr 12, 2017 6:01:03 GMT -6 @dumptime said:

Charles Smith wayyyy too low

I know. Working on it

[IanBoyd]

Apr 11, 2017 23:53:42 GMT -6 [Account Deleted] said:

Fortunately, the current iteration of the formula does seem to confirm that Rex Chapman will indeed be drafted by next Thursday.

Got date wrong, 0 points

[eric]

if you use code tags it'll make the formatting a lot easier to read, so long as you put the name on the far right (#MAGA)

so it would look like this:

Pos Height Weight Age In Out Hn Df Reb Pot Grade Name
PF 6'7" 250 21 B C+ C C+ B A 86.1 Anthony Mason
PF 6'10" 240 23 B+ C+ C B- B- B 86 Danny Manning
SG 6'6" 215 23 B B B- C+ C+ B 85.1 Dan Majerle
C 7'4" 250 22 B+ C D A- B B 84.5 Rik Smits
PF 6'8" 225 20 B- C+ C- C+ B- A 84.3 Grant Long
C 6'10" 250 21 B+ C+ C+ C+ C+ A 84.1 Nikola Jokic
SG 6'4" 185 21 C+ B C+ B- C- A 83.5 Rex Chapman

[[Account Deleted]]

How do I do that?

[eric]

few more things that just struck me

i also recommend publishing two versions, one sorted by grade, one sorted by name and with a rank column. that way if i want to know how severe the rex chapman snubbing is i can just look for r instead of reading every name like a mamaluke

and this is a minor one but i would multiply grade by 10 and round to 0 places, avoid decimal points where possible

it also could be worthwhile for you to use the center point of each grade rather than the minimum, as the grades are not evenly separated

[[Account Deleted]]

BIG BOARD 2.0

By Grade

Pos Height Weight Age In Out Hn Df Reb Pot  Grade Name
PF 6'7" 250 21 B C+ C C+ B A 86.1 Anthony Mason
PF 6'10" 240 23 B+ C+ C B- B- B 86.0 Danny Manning
SG 6'6" 215 23 B B B- C+ C+ B 85.1 Dan Majerle
PG 6'6" 190 22 C+ B- B+ C+ C+ B 85.0 Brian Shaw
PF 6'8" 225 20 B- C+ C- C+ B- A 84.3 Grant Long
PG 6'3" 185 23 B- B B B- C C 84.2 Gary Grant
C 7'4" 250 22 B+ C D A- B B 83.6 Rik Smits
SG 6'4" 185 21 C+ B C+ B- C- A 83.5 Rex Chapman
C 6'10" 250 21 B+ C+ C+ C+ C+ A 83.2 Nikola Jokic
PG 6'0" 170 23 C B B- B- C- B 82.8 David Rivers
SF 6'7" 195 21 B- B- C+ C+ B- B 82.6 Derrick Chievous
SF 6'8" 210 22 B- C+ C+ B- B- A 82.1 Chris Morris
PG 6'3" 175 22 B- C+ C+ B C- A 82.1 Rod Strickland
PG 6'3" 190 23 B- B+ C+ C+ D+ C 82.1 Steve Kerr
SF 6'5" 215 22 C+ B- C B- B- B 82.1 Fennis Dembo
SG 6'5" 215 23 B- B C C C+ A 82.0 Mitch Richmond
SG 6'7" 190 21 B- C+ B- B+ C A 81.9 Willie Anderson
PG 6'1" 180 20 C+ B- B C+ D+ B 81.6 Ricky Grace
PG 6'4" 193 23 B- C+ B- C+ C+ B 80.9 Vernon Maxwell
SG 6'8" 205 24 C+ B+ C- C C+ B 80.6 Ricky Berry
PG 6'1" 175 24 B- B B- C+ D+ C 80.6 Keith Smart
SF 6'10" 230 23 B C+ C- B- B- B 80.6 Charles Smith
PG 6'2" 175 22 C+ C+ B- B- D+ A 80.4 Micheal Williams
PG 6'2" 185 22 C+ B C+ B- C- C 80.3 Tom Garrick
PG 6'3" 190 23 B B- B B- C+ D 80.0 Kevin Edwards
SG 6'4" 185 22 C+ B C+ C+ C- B 79.9 Vinny Del Negro
PG 6'2" 175 22 B- B- B- B- D+ C 79.8 Everette Stephens
SG 6'3" 190 22 B C+ C+ B- C+ B 79.7 Hersey Hawkins
SF 6'7" 195 22 C+ B- C- C+ C+ B 79.4 Randolph Keys
PG 6'4" 175 23 B- B B- B- C- D 78.7 Anthony Taylor
SF 6'7" 235 23 B- B- D+ B- C+ C 78.4 Tom Tolbert
PG 6'2" 185 22 B- B- B- C+ D+ C 78.3 Morlon Wiley
PG 6'3" 180 23 C B- B- B+ C- C 78.2 John Starks
PG 5'11" 184 23 B- C+ B B- C C 77.6 Michael Anderson
SF 6'7" 210 23 B- C+ C+ C+ C+ B 77.4 Winston Bennett
SG 6'5" 200 23 B- C+ C C+ B- B 77.2 Jeff Grayer
PF 6'9" 245 23 B- C C B- B- B 77.0 Mark Bryant
PF 6'8" 203 22 B- C C- C+ B B 76.0 Nate Johnston
SF 6'7" 205 22 C+ B- C- C+ C+ C 75.4 Gerald Paddio
SG 6'5" 220 22 B C+ C- C+ C B 75.2 Ledell Eackles
SG 6'3" 195 23 B- B- C B- D+ C 74.8 Corey Gaines
C 7'0" 240 23 C C- C- B+ B B 74.4 Will Perdue
PG 6'5" 165 24 C+ B- B C D C 74.4 Craig Neal
C 6'11" 265 22 B C D+ C+ C+ B 73.6 Eric Leckner
C 7'1" 245 22 C- C- C+ B+ B B 73.6 Tito Horford
C 6'10" 225 22 B C- D B C+ B 73.2 Dean Garrett
SF 6'7" 205 22 B- C+ D+ C+ C+ C 72.8 Todd Mitchell
SF 6'9" 210 22 B- C C B- B- B 72.8 Shelton Jones
C 7'1" 240 24 B- C D+ B C+ C 72.6 Rolando Ferreira
SF 6'8" 195 23 B C C- C+ B B 72.5 Harvey Grant
C 6'11" 245 22 B D+ D B+ C+ B 72.1 Andrew Lang
PF 6'6" 230 22 B- C B- C+ B C 72.0 Jerome Lane
PF 6'9" 200 23 B D+ D+ A- B C 72.0 Tim Perry
C 6'11" 230 23 B- D+ D B- B- B 70.5 Rony Seikaly
SF 6'6" 230 21 B C C B- B- C 69.8 Sylvester Gray
C 6'10" 225 22 B D+ D+ C+ B- B 68.9 Charles Shackleford
PF 6'8" 220 23 B+ D+ D+ C+ B C 67.5 Orlando Graham
PF 6'9" 225 22 B C- D+ C+ C+ C 66.8 Rob Lock
PF 6'11" 215 23 B- D D+ C+ B- B 66.2 Barry Sumpter
C 6'11" 240 22 B- C- D C+ C+ C 65.1 Greg Butler


By Name
Pos Height Weight Age In Out Hn Df Reb Pot  Grade Rank Name
C 6'11" 245 22 B D+ D B+ C+ B 72.1 51 Andrew Lang
PF 6'7" 250 21 B C+ C C+ B A 86.1 1 Anthony Mason
PG 6'4" 175 23 B- B B- B- C- D 78.7 30 Anthony Taylor
PF 6'11" 215 23 B- D D+ C+ B- B 66.2 59 Barry Sumpter
PG 6'6" 190 22 C+ B- B+ C+ C+ B 85.0 4 Brian Shaw
C 6'10" 225 22 B D+ D+ C+ B- B 68.9 56 Charles Shackleford
SF 6'10" 230 23 B C+ C- B- B- B 80.6 22 Charles Smith
SF 6'8" 210 22 B- C+ C+ B- B- A 82.1 12 Chris Morris
SG 6'3" 195 23 B- B- C B- D+ C 74.8 41 Corey Gaines
PG 6'5" 165 24 C+ B- B C D C 74.4 43 Craig Neal
SG 6'6" 215 23 B B B- C+ C+ B 85.1 3 Dan Majerle
PF 6'10" 240 23 B+ C+ C B- B- B 86.0 2 Danny Manning
PG 6'0" 170 23 C B B- B- C- B 82.8 10 David Rivers
C 6'10" 225 22 B C- D B C+ B 73.2 46 Dean Garrett
SF 6'7" 195 21 B- B- C+ C+ B- B 82.6 11 Derrick Chievous
C 6'11" 265 22 B C D+ C+ C+ B 73.6 44 Eric Leckner
PG 6'2" 175 22 B- B- B- B- D+ C 79.8 27 Everette Stephens
SF 6'5" 215 22 C+ B- C B- B- B 82.1 15 Fennis Dembo
PG 6'3" 185 23 B- B B B- C C 84.2 6 Gary Grant
SF 6'7" 205 22 C+ B- C- C+ C+ C 75.4 39 Gerald Paddio
PF 6'8" 225 20 B- C+ C- C+ B- A 84.3 5 Grant Long
C 6'11" 240 22 B- C- D C+ C+ C 65.1 60 Greg Butler
SF 6'8" 195 23 B C C- C+ B B 72.5 50 Harvey Grant
SG 6'3" 190 22 B C+ C+ B- C+ B 79.7 28 Hersey Hawkins
SG 6'5" 200 23 B- C+ C C+ B- B 77.2 36 Jeff Grayer
PF 6'6" 230 22 B- C B- C+ B C 72.0 52 Jerome Lane
PG 6'3" 180 23 C B- B- B+ C- C 78.2 33 John Starks
PG 6'1" 175 24 B- B B- C+ D+ C 80.6 21 Keith Smart
PG 6'3" 190 23 B B- B B- C+ D 80.0 25 Kevin Edwards
SG 6'5" 220 22 B C+ C- C+ C B 75.2 40 Ledell Eackles
PF 6'9" 245 23 B- C C B- B- B 77.0 37 Mark Bryant
PG 5'11" 184 23 B- C+ B B- C C 77.6 34 Michael Anderson
PG 6'2" 175 22 C+ C+ B- B- D+ A 80.4 23 Micheal Williams
SG 6'5" 215 23 B- B C C C+ A 82.0 16 Mitch Richmond
PG 6'2" 185 22 B- B- B- C+ D+ C 78.3 32 Morlon Wiley
PF 6'8" 203 22 B- C C- C+ B B 76.0 38 Nate Johnston
C 6'10" 250 21 B+ C+ C+ C+ C+ A 83.2 9 Nikola Jokic
PF 6'8" 220 23 B+ D+ D+ C+ B C 67.5 57 Orlando Graham
SF 6'7" 195 22 C+ B- C- C+ C+ B 79.4 29 Randolph Keys
SG 6'4" 185 21 C+ B C+ B- C- A 83.5 8 Rex Chapman
SG 6'8" 205 24 C+ B+ C- C C+ B 80.6 20 Ricky Berry
PG 6'1" 180 20 C+ B- B C+ D+ B 81.6 18 Ricky Grace
C 7'4" 250 22 B+ C D A- B B 83.6 7 Rik Smits
PF 6'9" 225 22 B C- D+ C+ C+ C 66.8 58 Rob Lock
PG 6'3" 175 22 B- C+ C+ B C- A 82.1 13 Rod Strickland
C 7'1" 240 24 B- C D+ B C+ C 72.6 49 Rolando Ferreira
C 6'11" 230 23 B- D+ D B- B- B 70.5 54 Rony Seikaly
SF 6'9" 210 22 B- C C B- B- B 72.8 48 Shelton Jones
PG 6'3" 190 23 B- B+ C+ C+ D+ C 82.1 14 Steve Kerr
SF 6'6" 230 21 B C C B- B- C 69.8 55 Sylvester Gray
PF 6'9" 200 23 B D+ D+ A- B C 72.0 53 Tim Perry
C 7'1" 245 22 C- C- C+ B+ B B 73.6 45 Tito Horford
SF 6'7" 205 22 B- C+ D+ C+ C+ C 72.8 47 Todd Mitchell
PG 6'2" 185 22 C+ B C+ B- C- C 80.3 24 Tom Garrick
SF 6'7" 235 23 B- B- D+ B- C+ C 78.4 31 Tom Tolbert
PG 6'4" 193 23 B- C+ B- C+ C+ B 80.9 19 Vernon Maxwell
SG 6'4" 185 22 C+ B C+ C+ C- B 79.9 26 Vinny Del Negro
C 7'0" 240 23 C C- C- B+ B B 74.4 42 Will Perdue
SG 6'7" 190 21 B- C+ B- B+ C A 81.9 17 Willie Anderson
SF 6'7" 210 23 B- C+ C+ C+ C+ B 77.4 35 Winston Bennett


Methodology:

Each player is assigned numeric values for Height, Age, Potential, and all grades, they are then averaged using the weighted average formula and then divided by 2 so they work on a 0-100 scale. Positional value is taken to account by having the weighted average for PGs higher than wings, higher than PFs than Cs, etc. I made PF much closer to the wings than the centers because of the tendency to have many PF builds move to SF.


Pos Height Age  Pot Inside Outside Handles Defense Reb Total
PG 0.025 0.025 0.4 0.35 0.5 0.275 0.375 0.2 2.15
SG 0.025 0.025 0.4 0.35 0.45 0.125 0.4 0.225 2
SF 0.025 0.025 0.4 0.4 0.45 0.05 0.4 0.25 2
PF 0.025 0.025 0.4 0.4 0.275 0 0.475 0.35 1.95
C 0.025 0.025 0.4 0.225 0.125 0 0.55 0.45 1.8


Attribute values:

Pot Numeric Value
A 100
B 90
C 70
D 50
F 30

Age Numeric Value
18 100
19 95
20 90
21 85
22 80
23 75
24 70
25 65
26 60
27 55
28 50
29 45
30 40
31 35
32 30
33 25
34 20
35 15
36 10
37 5
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
43 0
44 0

Height Numeric Value
7'8" 100
7'7" 100
7'6" 100
7'5" 100
7'4" 100
7'3" 98
7'2" 96
7'1" 94
7'0" 92
6'11" 90
6'10" 88
6'9" 86
6'8" 84
6'7" 82
6'6" 80
6'5" 78
6'4" 76
6'3" 74
6'2" 72
6'1" 70
6'0" 68
5'11" 65
5'10" 62
5'9" 59
5'8" 55
5'7" 51
5'6" 47
5'5" 43
5'4" 39
5'3" 35
5'2" 31

Attr Numeric Value
A+ 96
A 86
A- 76
B+ 71
B 66
B- 61
C+ 53
C 39
C- 31
D+ 26
D 21
D- 16
F+ 11
F 6
F- 1


[[Account Deleted]]

For 3.0, I think I'm going to experiment with changing the attribute values to midpoints like you suggest Eric.

I'm hoping we can get a Summit posted as well so Summit performance can factor in.

[IanBoyd]

To post a summit, one must organize a summit first

[[Account Deleted]]

Wanna draft one today?

[Face-in]

Please no summit.

[Deleted]

LETS DO A SUMMIT

[[Account Deleted]]

Voting 1k on an article where someone spent a couple hours building spreadsheets is a bitch move.

[Heebs]

I'd run a summit if I weren't banned from participating.

[[Account Deleted]]

Que?

[BKay Jewelers]

I vote for a summit