2: Mafia Game Thread - Game Over - Mafia Win (15,524 views)

[[Account Deleted]]

I answered your eric questions. I even have a full line above with my thoughts on eric

[[Account Deleted]]

Eric didn't trust delap but neither did I. I was voting for him on Day 2 until he revealed he was cop and then I tried to curry votes over to fecta to save him because I was sure he was mafia because of how he kept insisting Tim was mafia but giving us no evidence

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 9, 2017 9:33:43 GMT -6 [Account Deleted] said:

How did it point the finger at eric as his accomplice?

because eric spent numerous posts trying to convince us that soup didn't sacrifice himself to save delap. My suspicion of eric hinges on that decision. That argument makes no sense whatsoever and eric's claim that soup protected him relies on sheer coincidence.

[[Account Deleted]]

Eric didn't buy Delap's vote then and he stayed true to what he thought. No one knew delap was definitively cop until majic was killed

[MistleTacoe]

I agree with JHB and I am tempted to vote Canes to save myself.

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 9, 2017 9:36:20 GMT -6 [Account Deleted] said:

Eric didn't trust delap but neither did I. I was voting for him on Day 2 until he revealed he was cop and then I tried to curry votes over to fecta to save him because I was sure he was mafia because of how he kept insisting Tim was mafia but giving us no evidence

this was my exact reasoning for voting for fecta. His suspicion of tim made no sense. It was a lucky guess that he was right. I get not trusting delap before the vote, but after the vote and soup's death, there should have been little doubt. The majic vote confirmed 100% that soup saved delap the previous round. Eric still arguing that its possible soup didn't save delap is ridiculous.

[[Account Deleted]]

No it relies on Eric's foolish insistence that people will take him at his word since he admitted he was mafia during game one.

Since he thought people would take that at face value he assumed the mafia would kill him since he was in his own mind a verified civ.

I believe he argued the point that soup protected him mainly to get people not to make assumptions about who soup protected

[MistleTacoe]

Looks like we have 20 minutes left. Does anyone have the count?

[[Account Deleted]]

Anyone playing self-preservation this late in the game should be considered a suspect

[[Account Deleted]]

2 each for eric, Billy, canes, and taco

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 9, 2017 9:40:29 GMT -6 [Account Deleted] said:

Anyone playing self-preservation this late in the game should be considered a suspect

do you see me changing my vote? if you want to kill me, kill me. Hopefully it gives you the info you need to find the mafia.

[MistleTacoe]

If I am a civ, then why put myself at risk to be on the chopping block for zero reason. I understand that if Canes is a civ, I will put myself squarely in the sites. If I were a Mafia, would I risk that? Seems stupid.

[MistleTacoe]

I will let you decide who you want us to kill - Eric or Canes. I am going to change my vote before 11

[[Account Deleted]]

We have 5 more people than they do so we can afford a death to narrow our sites.

Mafia can't afford another loss at this point because it brings them to one and gives us the game history of another mafia

The mafia move here is to break the tie to kill a civ

The Civ move here is to stand pat because all four in the tie are equally suspect at this point imo although I've made my specific suspicions clear

[[Account Deleted]]

sights*

[MistleTacoe]

read "self-preservation" as "knowingly increasing the odds to kill a mafia member" and it makes a whole lot of sense

[MistleTacoe]

Jun 9, 2017 9:45:07 GMT -6 [Account Deleted] said:

We have 5 more people than they do so we can afford a death to narrow our sites.

Mafia can't afford another loss at this point because it brings them to one and gives us the game history of another mafia

The mafia move here is to break the tie to kill a civ

The Civ move here is to stand pat because all four in the tie are equally suspect at this point imo although I've made my specific suspicions clear

Using your logic though, we want to increase the chance to get a Mafia member. I know I am a civ so in my court it makes total sense

[[Account Deleted]]

We don't know you're a civ so I don't know that the chances actually increase

[[Account Deleted]]

I said I was a civ all last game, words mean nothing

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 9, 2017 9:45:07 GMT -6 [Account Deleted] said:

We have 5 more people than they do so we can afford a death to narrow our sites.

Mafia can't afford another loss at this point because it brings them to one and gives us the game history of another mafia

The mafia move here is to break the tie to kill a civ

The Civ move here is to stand pat because all four in the tie are equally suspect at this point imo although I've made my specific suspicions clear

do me a favor. play it out.

What happens if I lose the flip and am found to be a civ. What if I'm mafia?
Do the same for every person you are setting up a tie for. What do you learn if that person dies and they are a civ. what do you learn if they are mafia?

[MistleTacoe]

Additionally, if I get killed, you learn basically nothing. Seems like a win/win from my point of view to take a shot

[Heebs]

If you get killed and are a civ, we learn that the people voting for you are more likely to be mafia.

[[Account Deleted]]

I'm comfortable with it because I'm confident at least one of you in the tie is mafia. If someone dies and they're a civ it narrows my target pool.

If they're mafia, then we have a full game to review of theirs to see their patterns

[Heebs]

I am not voting unless someone breaks the tie, in which case I will randomly select someone with two votes to increase to three.

[[Account Deleted]]

If you're a civ don't break the tie because if you do and are a civ I will mistakenly come after you as mafia next round

[Citizen Cane]

Jun 9, 2017 9:50:14 GMT -6 Heebs said:

If you get killed and are a civ, we learn that the people voting for you are more likely to be mafia.

do we? JHB is basically holding a gun to everyone's head and saying, help me force a tie or we kill you next round for trying to save yourself. After this vote, mafia will argue that their vote was nothing but making sure they didn't catch a stray bullet from jhb's faulty logic.

[Citizen Cane]

Ok brain dump time.

1st. I don't like the idea of leaving things to chance for this round. Each decision at this point needs to be well thought out and give us information for the next round especially if it costs us a civ. However, because we know for a fact that Heebs is a Civ, he needs to take the lead on this vote because he is the only one who can be trusted to not mislead the town. It is his last vote. As the anchor of the town, it would be idiotic of the mafia to let him live for another day. It seems like he wants to split the vote, I disagree with this strategy, but that seems to be the case so I will let it play out and hope I am still around on the other end. I'm not going to bother to argue why I should be kept alive because it is a pointless exercise. My life doesn't matter. What matters is finding and killing the mafia, so if I got to take a bullet but it helps the remaining town win, mission accomplished.

Here are the scenarios of how this game is going to playing out if I die during the vote from most likely to least likely.

Scenario 1.

Eric is Mafia. I have stated my reasons numerous times. His "I'm a guaranteed civ" comment is nonsense. Just like that question meant nothing to 20s, it means nothing when eric answers it without being asked. His voting strategy told us that 100% delap and fecta were mafia. That got proven false immediately. On it's own, this isn't the end of the world. Many of us have been very wrong in this game. Heebs was wrong a lot early and going into the fecta vote, I had delap and heebs as likely mafia. However, eric's actions after that vote clinched it for me. His talk about how soup protected eric made no sense. Soup is a smart guy. He knew the high percentage play that round was to protect the guy claiming to be the cop because once delap said he was the cop, the mafia knew who they had to take out that turn. The vanilla civ lying about being the cop doesn't work for this game because the best case scenario for it still results in mass confusion and suspicion among the town. Eric's theory that soup protected him relies on sheer luck/coincidence and that doesn't match up with how soup was playing the game. Also, why would the mafia take out eric that night when he just spent that whole day schedule throwing out a theory that implicated 3 civs. there is no reason whatsoever to kill someone who is that far off track. Massive red flag to me.

The next issue is who is his accomplice. IMO the most likely option is BK. I base this off his actions. He has been way behind all game. Some of that I can excuse for being busy, but it baffles me that a vet of this game is so lost. Also, a vet of this game should have their sights firmly on eric right now imo. There is nothing trustworthy of how he has played this game. Now we are in the later stages and he is active. He saw me going after eric and started hurling out accusations left and right before finally settling on me because he could no longer try and get heebs out and because I am the main person targeting eric. For me, this is the most likely scenario for our final 2 mafia.

If BK is not the accomplice and is really Mafia's version of TMBSL Devine, then we have to look elsewhere.

Gonna post a little about all possible options

GBG- says I haven't contributed anything towards suspects but I helped with the logic on why voting out majic was a good thing. I have also stated pretty clearly multiple times why I think eric is mafia.

JHB- I don't understand why he is so hesitant to kill eric. So much evidence points to him. If we aren't targeting eric, who are we targeting? I know he has a theory that gbg is mafia, and I'm fine exploring that, but how does setting up a 4 way tie where gbg doesn't even get votes make any sense? It is possible that JHB is playing a super sleeper role in this game and if that is true, its going to be very difficult for the town to win.

Taco- This is based only off of his voting record. It is sketchy at best. He hasn't been very active so there isn't really any arguments to be made other than his voting record isn't ideal. It is possible that he and timpig were assigned the role of trying to float in this game and whoever was left standing towards the end had the job of creating as much chaos as possible with their votes.

SPL- Started off the game throwing out wild accusations before calming down. I really haven't done enough research into him to make an educated guess on where he stands but I don't think he is mafia.

Ved- Ved is being typical ved and showing up for short spurts. So far his voting record is fine other than missing a vote that wasn't close anyway. With how he is acting, I believe he is a civ.


Scenario 2. BK is Mafia Eric is a Civ

If eric is proven to be a Civ, then my next theory is that BK is the main active mafia left. My reasons for believing this are the same as already stated. His game play has been way too eratic for someone who has supposedly played this game numerous times. If this is the case his accomplice imo is one of taco, gbg, or spl.

scenrio 3. JHB is a super sleeper.

This is the scariest scenario for me but also not that likely. JHB attached himself to heebs right away and was vital in helping get rid of majic. However, his late game play hasn't made a lot of sense to me.His idea for a 4 way tie could have disastrous results if it knocks out the wrong civ and lets the mafia kill heebs tonight. If jhb is a super sleeper, this 4 way tie is the best chance for the mafia to win the game. Lets say taco loses the coin flip is revealed as a Civ and heebs is killed tonight. Now the rest of us have no new real info other than the guy with a sketchy voting record is dead and that move cost us the one trustworthy player in the game. I hate that move. It gives us no new info and we now are down to 5 v 2 and the margin for error is completely gone.
Late edit

JHB's last minute charge moves him up my list. Be VERY wary of JHB. If I die because JHB led the charge, look at him and eric/bk. Remember that JHB set up this 4 way tie and put us in the situation to kill either taco or me and learn almost nothing about the game at the cost of heebs.

Scenario 4. The last two mafia have been floating the whole game (taco, ved, spl).

I don't see this scenario as likely because that would mean 3/4 of our mafia tried to do nothing but float to the end the entire game. I don't see that as likely for this group of people who like to compete and pad posts. If this is the case, we are basically throwing darts at a board and praying to hit 2x before missing 2x.

So yeah, that's everything. If I am dead, this is everything I have. Can't wait to read the dead civ thread and see all the people laughing at my awful logic.

goodbye my friends.

[MistleTacoe]

Hmmm I guess that makes sense. Knowing I am a civ, I just think increasing our odds of getting a Mafia guy to 33% is more important.

Since I was between BK and Eric, I believe I am going to switch to Eric. I have not done it officially yet and may potentially let time run out.

[Citizen Cane]

@aheebrewtoo get everything on your mind out because im 99.9% sure this is your last chance

[MistleTacoe]

This is literally going to be a shooters shoot situation. If I swing and miss, I will be a prime target. If I swing and hit, it will be pretty obvious I am a civ.