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Post by FectaDEEZ on Jun 13, 2017 8:49:23 GMT -6
Also, I was thinking Canes was Mafia and that seems to be proven wrong.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 8:49:47 GMT -6
Anyone have any theories for who the last mafioso might be?
It might seem like we have a huge advantage, but if lynch incorrectly the next three nights (50% chance of doing so if we are voting based on random chance) it will be 2 vs 1.
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Jun 13, 2017 8:49:52 GMT -6
Ive voted for Mafia members the last two rounds, pretty clear that I am not mafia.But me saying this probably makes everyone else think I am mafia. My vote right now would be GBG, not based on much other than him being adamant about his pick being random or Timpig just because. All of my first round picks are shots in the dark. I feel like we would have to grasp at straws to say the evidence points one way or the other... unless the mafia member comes out and admits he is mafia, I suppose. Yeah, I'm not going on much. |
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jun 13, 2017 8:50:22 GMT -6
WEll this is going a lot better than last game
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 13, 2017 8:51:03 GMT -6
So what we know out of who is left: Cop - Pete Civ - JHB Civ - canes Civ - Civ - Civ - Civ - Civ - Mafia - Pool: Soup 20s Gbg Fecta TimPig delap
If we all agree to go ahead and vote straight down your "pool" list there, we have a 92.9% chance of winning as the town and will basically win unless delap is the mafia member.
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Jun 13, 2017 8:52:35 GMT -6
Im not very good at this game, someone tell me why Pete is definitely not lying? I dont think he is for the record, but why is he 100 percent the cop?
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 8:54:05 GMT -6
Im not very good at this game, someone tell me why Pete is definitely not lying? I dont think he is for the record, but why is he 100 percent the cop? Because if he wasn't the real cop would have outed him by now unless they are someone who is terrible at this game. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 8:54:34 GMT -6
So what we know out of who is left: Cop - Pete Civ - JHB Civ - canes Civ - Civ - Civ - Civ - Civ - Mafia - Pool: Soup 20s Gbg Fecta TimPig delap
If we all agree to go ahead and vote straight down your "pool" list there, we have a 92.9% chance of winning as the town and will basically win unless delap is the mafia member.
This is not correct. |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 13, 2017 8:55:58 GMT -6
I guess it would be a 85.7% chance to win and only a loss if TimPig or Fecta is mafia.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 13, 2017 8:55:59 GMT -6
Im not very good at this game, someone tell me why Pete is definitely not lying? I dont think he is for the record, but why is he 100 percent the cop? If he is lying then Eric would have had to make a really good guess on who to protect in order to prevent a civ murder last night. I think it's safe to assume he tried to protect Pete, and BK thought his goose was cooked since he had been a top vote getter the first two days; so he went after the admitted cop. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 8:58:08 GMT -6
5/6 chance we are wrong on soup
Soup dead, mafia takes out pete. Now 6 vs 1.
4/5 chance we are wrong on me (really 100% but for probability's sake).
Me dead, mafia takes out JHB. 4 vs 1.
3/4 chance we are wrong on GBG.
Gbg dead, mafia takes out canes. 2 vs 1. All roles unknown.
A 3 person day is tricky to calculate out.
Anyway, that's a .83333 * .8 * .75 = .5 chance that we strike out on the top 3 and are in a 2 vs 1 final chance situation.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 9:01:02 GMT -6
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 9:01:20 GMT -6
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jun 13, 2017 9:02:20 GMT -6
20s what is your theory as well
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 9:02:34 GMT -6
I guess it would be a 85.7% chance to win and only a loss if TimPig or Fecta is mafia. So if we lose if 2 of the 6 are mafia, that is a 33.3% chance of losing. |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 13, 2017 9:04:17 GMT -6
eric did you want to post your spreadsheet? Pete said you're allowed to, and we all know you still have it you burly bodyguard, you.
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 13, 2017 9:06:40 GMT -6
In the meantime, I'm going to vote Delap on the off chance that SPL was trying to protect a teammate by throwing his name in with a couple civs while naming his "accomplices."
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jun 13, 2017 9:07:02 GMT -6
We know Pete and Taco are civs.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 9:09:17 GMT -6
20s what is your theory as well I'm still trying to formulate one, only people I really had suspicions about were soup and canes but they were mostly just gut feelings based on their posts in here. Canes is confirmed civ so if I had to vote now it would be soup, but I should probably go back and reread the thread and I want to see what people like TimPig and delap have to say. If anyone stays radio silent I would probably vote for them. One interesting thing to consider is that SPL originally named Taco, pete and delap as his fellow mafia. When it was pointed out there were only 3 mafia, he said pete and delap. Pete and taco are now confirmed Civs. So the question is did he give us 3 fake names to hopefully send us on a wild goose chase or did he go 2 fake and try to actually sneak a real mafia member in there? for now, I think he likely gave 3 civ names hoping we would go for them. I think delap is a civ for now. But if we haven't found the mafia in a couple rounds I think he is someone to keep in mind. |
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 13, 2017 9:12:22 GMT -6
Right now I'm pretty solid on soup. He voted for mafia both rounds but he voted for spl right after he admitted to it and BK right after Heebs made his declaration that he was the fake cop and didn't change votes after Pete refuted that.
His voting pattern seems to suggest he wants to build credibility but he's been laying low compared to his previous games.
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Post by eric on Jun 13, 2017 9:14:56 GMT -6
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 13, 2017 9:18:39 GMT -6
Lol okay idiots
soup
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 9:19:40 GMT -6
Fecta voted for mafia Billy right out of the gates and then was the first vote for Billy last round. I think he is a civ.
TimPig voted for Billy in the first round to give him a 3-3 tie with SPL when he could have just as easily voted for Herb to bring him into the 3-3 tie with SPL. I think he is a civ.
That leaves soup, delap and gbg.
We have 3 rounds to get this right. I think our mafia is one of those three.
soup
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 13, 2017 9:20:02 GMT -6
Right now I'm pretty solid on soup. He voted for mafia both rounds but he voted for spl right after he admitted to it and BK right after Heebs made his declaration that he was the fake cop and didn't change votes after Pete refuted that. His voting pattern seems to suggest he wants to build credibility but he's been laying low compared to his previous games. Is this real life? |
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Post by TimPig on Jun 13, 2017 9:21:38 GMT -6
On my way into work. Will post thoughts when I get in.
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jun 13, 2017 9:22:27 GMT -6
interesting that SPL and Billy King both voted for TimPig early
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jun 13, 2017 9:26:58 GMT -6
2 soup - JHB, 20s
1 delap - GBG
1 illegal vote - soup
Yet to vote: Fecta, TimPig, pete, delap, canes
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jun 13, 2017 9:32:03 GMT -6
Soup, what's your theory?
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Post by [Account Deleted] on Jun 13, 2017 9:34:04 GMT -6
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Post by Souper Troopers on Jun 13, 2017 9:34:18 GMT -6
Soup, what's your theory? I think it's fishy for jhb to question me using the fact that I voted out mafia both times. Like really? |
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