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Post by Odin on Jul 12, 2017 11:24:45 GMT -6
Not silenced
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 12, 2017 11:25:02 GMT -6
SPL was the only normal mafia. If you were going to point the finger or self-sacrifice, he'd be the first to go.
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Post by Odin on Jul 12, 2017 11:28:14 GMT -6
So bankz is silenced? Interesting
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Post by Heebs on Jul 12, 2017 11:33:47 GMT -6
SPL was the only normal mafia. If you were going to point the finger or self-sacrifice, he'd be the first to go. Makes sense. Let's talk about the cop's strategy if 20s is NOT the cop. I think they have to stay silent unless they hit on the third mafia even if they know 20s is mafia. Worst case scenario is that we or the mafia hit the actual cop without the cop getting any additional info. 20s is confirmed mafia once it's revealed there is another cop. We'll have additional info from other votes to help sniff out the third mafia. Best case scenario is that the cop hits on the third mafia before he gets killed. In that case we win. Anyone see an issue with that logic that suggests the cop should reveal themselves? |
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Post by gbgalla24 on Jul 12, 2017 11:40:08 GMT -6
SPL was the only normal mafia. If you were going to point the finger or self-sacrifice, he'd be the first to go. Makes sense. Let's talk about the cop's strategy if 20s is NOT the cop. I think they have to stay silent unless they hit on the third mafia even if they know 20s is mafia. Worst case scenario is that we or the mafia hit the actual cop without the cop getting any additional info. 20s is confirmed mafia once it's revealed there is another cop. We'll have additional info from other votes to help sniff out the third mafia. Best case scenario is that the cop hits on the third mafia before he gets killed. In that case we win. Anyone see an issue with that logic that suggests the cop should reveal themselves? With the barman still out there, I would say the cop is better off staying unknown. Bankz is my current vote. I think the mafia is getting desperate and tried to silence one of their own to try to throw off the town's scent. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 12, 2017 11:47:59 GMT -6
I am the cop. I was trying to think of if there is any way I could parlay the cloud of suspicion many of you currently have on me into more info for the town, but I haven't been able to come up with a scenario where that works. This is because if I tell you guys I am not the cop and just a regular civ or even don't say that and leave it open that I am mafia, I'm probably not getting bodyguard protection and I'm not getting any investigations in anyway.
I am very confident the mafia believes I am the cop at this point since so they will want to take me out. I think our best bet as the town is to give myself bodyguard protection so we can get a 1 for 1 mafia for cop exchange. Then they will only have one left.
However, since there is a barman, maybe they won't be concerned with taking me out since I can't investigate successfully anyway. But I am close to verified civ status so who knows.
Anyway, results of my investigations:
Night 1: SPL - Mafia
Night 2: someone - blocked by barman
Not sure saying who it was on Night 2 would be of any help and would give the mafia more info
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 12, 2017 11:48:21 GMT -6
If 20s is mafia and he's the silencer, and the cop knows 20s is mafia, we could do the following.
Bodyguard keeps cop protected once he comes forward
Bar man keeps cop from investigating but can't kill them b3cause of threat of bodyguard.
This would give us a lot of chances to vote out mafia #3 and at least one confirmed civ who lasts as long as the bodyguard doesn't get clipped
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 12, 2017 11:49:00 GMT -6
I was hoping to wait it out longer before saying anything to see how everyone played when it was still in doubt but when the convo shifted to what to do if someone else is the cop, it seemed we were getting off track.
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Post by Heebs on Jul 12, 2017 11:50:59 GMT -6
Working theory, which I stole from Odin but will expand on.
I think it's either 20s/GBG or Bankz/delap.
Part of me thinks it is not Bankz because he's always this loose and I think he genuinely believes I am a liability to the town, which explains him trying to vote me off. If he were mafia, he'd want me to stick around.
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 12, 2017 11:53:09 GMT -6
If 20s is the cop I think bankz is mafia
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Post by Heebs on Jul 12, 2017 11:55:11 GMT -6
If 20s is the cop I think bankz is mafia Why did you vote for 20s to start the day? |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 12, 2017 11:55:59 GMT -6
The reason I made that post in that format last round was indeed to make it clear I had conviction in my vote. I came forward because I was getting killed last night if I didn't most likely.
The mafia doesn't silence a civ and then not take them out that night, that just verifies a civ (almost) to the town.
When I hit on a mafioso in my night 1 investigation and then found out I was silenced, I thought through all the scenarios. The most likely outcome to me was I was getting taken out that night so I had to find a way to make it clear I knew something about SPL when I died and it was revealed I was cop.
The doomsday scenario was I find a mafioso and die without passing that info on. There has only been one other game I've made it past Night 2 without being killed so I expected I was gone soon. Once I was silenced, it was nearly a sure thing. However, once you guys picked up on it and protected me, they obviously avoided me to not sacrifice one of the power mafiosos.
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Post by Delap on Jul 12, 2017 11:56:35 GMT -6
I'm driving the next of the trip (Sioux City, IA to Kansas City). I'm out for a while.
For now my vote is bankz
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Post by Heebs on Jul 12, 2017 11:57:34 GMT -6
Working theory, which I stole from Odin but will expand on. I think it's either 20s/GBG or Bankz/delap. Part of me thinks it is not Bankz because he's always this loose and I think he genuinely believes I am a liability to the town, which explains him trying to vote me off. If he were mafia, he'd want me to stick around. So this post is really confusing and I wrote it. I started out with a "20s and GBG" theory, which I stole from Odin. As I was reviewing the thread to draft my rationale, a Bankz/Delap connection popped out at me. So I added Bankz/delap and never edited the first sentence. |
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Post by Heynong Man on Jul 12, 2017 11:57:50 GMT -6
bankz his desire to defend spl and keep him around and now going after the potential cop point in his direction
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 12, 2017 11:58:32 GMT -6
The most suspicious thing with bankz was when he was saying it didn't make sense to give me BG protection.
The rest can be explained just as a civ who was wrong but hot on that trail of wrongness and following it.
Arguing to not protect me last night makes no sense as a civ even if you suspected me as possible mafia. So from that standpoint he is either suspect or just was being dumb.
I almost think he has been playing too suspect/obvious to be mafia because mafia would attempt to hide it better.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 12, 2017 11:59:15 GMT -6
I have a meeting from 1 to 1:30 but I will be back. I think forcing a majority on bankz would be premature. Let's use our time to discuss and get ideas out there.
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jul 12, 2017 12:01:10 GMT -6
ugh. on one hand its good that we have our cop. but its bad that the barman is in this game. 20s is basically nothing more than a confirmed civ until we find the barman and kill him.
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Post by Heynong Man on Jul 12, 2017 12:01:10 GMT -6
I have a meeting from 1 to 1:30 but I will be back. I think forcing a majority on bankz would be premature. Let's use our time to discuss and get ideas out there. I'm heading to the gym so I just want to make sure I got a vote in so I don't miss it |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 12, 2017 12:02:07 GMT -6
So we have two options here.
20s is the cop. 20s is not the cop.
If 20s is not the cop, he is mafia.
In no case should we be voting 20s to die.
If 20s is the cop, we're idiots for killing him.
If 20s is the mafia, we'll eventually kill the third mafia, in which case the cop can come forward, or the real cop, in which case we confirm 20s is mafia.
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Bankz
Former GM 
Posts: 7,254
Likes: 895
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Joined: April 2014
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Post by Bankz on Jul 12, 2017 12:03:47 GMT -6
Why would Bankz be so adamant to not kill a civ like RV? To establish credibility. Because he is the one who brought rv back for this game so he had a soft spot for him (I think this is most likely). And if he is a civ, he didn't know rv was a civ so he wasn't being so adamant to not kill a civ, he was being adamant that we don't kill rv who could be any role. My case made for Rv had nothing to do with him being a Civ or not. My case has been clear. I hate when people take a easy way out and vote for the weak or use a random generated list. It does nothing to spur on discussion and leaves the town with zero to work on day 1. Why would Bankz be so adamant to not kill a civ like RV? So he could say that he campaigned to save RVs life. Why would he be so adamant that RV is innocent? He had just as much of a chance to be mafia as anyone else. I didn't say Rv was innocent... never once. You just fucked up. my guess is that 20s was self-silenced and only intended for his vote to signify that he was silenced, not to indicate that he's the cop. Since people overwhelmingly went along w/ him, it made him a bigger investigation target for the real cop. If 20s self silenced and is still alive I feel like 20s is 100% mafia. If your mafia and you know you didn't silence anyone and you know 20s just picked off one of your own how in the world do you not kill him last night? He's one of the better players in this game and he just made a huge power play that fucked your Mafia unit up. I am the cop. I was trying to think of if there is any way I could parlay the cloud of suspicion many of you currently have on me into more info for the town, but I haven't been able to come up with a scenario where that works. This is because if I tell you guys I am not the cop and just a regular civ or even don't say that and leave it open that I am mafia, I'm probably not getting bodyguard protection and I'm not getting any investigations in anyway. I am very confident the mafia believes I am the cop at this point since so they will want to take me out. I think our best bet as the town is to give myself bodyguard protection so we can get a 1 for 1 mafia for cop exchange. Then they will only have one left. However, since there is a barman, maybe they won't be concerned with taking me out since I can't investigate successfully anyway. But I am close to verified civ status so who knows. Anyway, results of my investigations: Night 1: SPL - Mafia Night 2: someone - blocked by barman Not sure saying who it was on Night 2 would be of any help and would give the mafia more info If the mafia thought you were the Cop you would be dead. There is zero chance you are alive if trully a civilian at this point. You coming out asking for protection yet hiding info on us leads me to belive you are not Mafia. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 12, 2017 12:05:32 GMT -6
Because I thought the last round was carried out as a credibility builder for 20s. Now that he's put his cards on the table, we'll either know that he's mafia in due time or have a guaranteed civ, so i agree that he's not worth voting for.
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 12, 2017 12:06:06 GMT -6
Wait so no one was silenced?
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Post by Heebs on Jul 12, 2017 12:07:55 GMT -6
My gut says GBG.
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Bankz
Former GM
Posts: 7,254
Likes: 895
Dump Bucks: 18,475
Joined: April 2014
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Post by Bankz on Jul 12, 2017 12:08:27 GMT -6
GBG
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Post by Odin on Jul 12, 2017 12:10:57 GMT -6
gbg
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jul 12, 2017 12:11:23 GMT -6
any reason for gbg? no reason to rush into a vote right now
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Post by Heebs on Jul 12, 2017 12:12:42 GMT -6
Wait so no one was silenced? Seems that way. I just re-checked posts and deaths and no one was silenced. Souper Troopers - would you tell us if a mafia had a power role? Maybe SPL was the silencer. |
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Post by Odin on Jul 12, 2017 12:13:34 GMT -6
All of his posts have been reactive rather than proactive
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jul 12, 2017 12:16:55 GMT -6
All of his posts have been reactive rather than proactivea anything else? we don't have much to go on so I don't want to throw my vote at someone at this point in the game without a little more info. |
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