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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 13:25:09 GMT -6
The biggest tell we have is that all the action started to go down when herb got put under fire. Generally, the mafia ramps up activity when they are forced into it. JHB and Heebs really took things up a notch last round when it seemed like Heebs was under suspicion
Also, JHB is the one who initially brought up that Heebs had "outed himself as vigilante" just by asking the question about vigilante - something what was necessary in order for Heebs to post his long ass diatribe revealing himself as vigilante
Tons of smoke. Not 100% that herb is actually the last mafia, but even if he isn't I have no problem voting him off for how badly he has botched this role if he is vigilante
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 13:27:32 GMT -6
how are you a confirmed civ? I could have been colluding with JHB on day 2 to take people off my trail. But it would have been highly engineered and hard to pull off. If you review day 2 with the thought "does this sound like the vigilante" I think you'll see I was actively trying to play dumb well before you outed JHB. After you outed him, I wanted BG protection for you. Odin pointed out that was dumb. I agreed and considered whether I should come out to get BG protection. I wrote a post with my admission. I didn't post it, instead asking if the vigilante should announce as a general question for the town. JHB came out saying I was vigilante. After he said that, players started suggesting he said that to keep the town from lynching me and that you should lynch me day 3. I quickly posted my draft post because I thought it would confirm me as a civilian. That's the stream of conscious of my memory of how that all went down. Other tidbits. I was the first vote for GBG. It was initially a joke and I was going to switch to Delap in OT. Thankfully I didn't. Also, when Pete said he was going to investigate me I firmly told him I'd be revealed as a civilian. Canes later confirmed that the secret roles would be investigated as civilians. There's really only one way I'd know that. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 18, 2017 13:29:02 GMT -6
so let's presume for a second heebs is a vigilante, and that we go another round w/o executing the bodyguard or having them die at night, but we don't catch the don.
We'd be looking at
Pete
Heebs
Bodyguard
unknown
unknown
with two kills thanks to the vigilante talent. So if the bodyguard comes forward next round, we should be able to lynch one unknown and vigilante kill the other
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 13:29:27 GMT -6
how are you a confirmed civ? I could have been colluding with JHB on day 2 to take people off my trail. But it would have been highly engineered and hard to pull off. If you review day 2 with the thought "does this sound like the vigilante" I think you'll see I was actively trying to play dumb well before you outed JHB. After you outed him, I wanted BG protection for you. Odin pointed out that was dumb. I agreed and considered whether I should come out to get BG protection. I wrote a post with my admission. I didn't post it, instead asking if the vigilante should announce as a general question for the town. JHB came out saying I was vigilante. After he said that, players started suggesting he said that to keep the town from lynching me and that you should lynch me day 3. I quickly posted my draft post because I thought it would confirm me as a civilian. That's the stream of conscious of my memory of how that all went down. Other tidbits. I was the first vote for GBG. It was initially a joke and I was going to switch to Delap in OT. Thankfully I didn't. Also, when Pete said he was going to investigate me I firmly told him I'd be revealed as a civilian. Canes later confirmed that the secret roles would be investigated as civilians. There's really only one way I'd know that. Cliffs notes version for other posters: he never answers how he is a confirmed civ |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 13:31:50 GMT -6
so let's presume for a second heebs is a vigilante, and that we go another round w/o executing the bodyguard or having them die at night, but we don't catch the don. We'd be looking at Pete Heebs Bodyguard unknown unknown with two kills thanks to the vigilante talent. So if the bodyguard comes forward next round, we should be able to lynch one unknown and vigilante kill the other I could get on board with this but let's flesh it out - what if Heebs is the don? Do we screw ourselves in that case? |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 13:31:55 GMT -6
I could have been colluding with JHB on day 2 to take people off my trail. But it would have been highly engineered and hard to pull off. If you review day 2 with the thought "does this sound like the vigilante" I think you'll see I was actively trying to play dumb well before you outed JHB. After you outed him, I wanted BG protection for you. Odin pointed out that was dumb. I agreed and considered whether I should come out to get BG protection. I wrote a post with my admission. I didn't post it, instead asking if the vigilante should announce as a general question for the town. JHB came out saying I was vigilante. After he said that, players started suggesting he said that to keep the town from lynching me and that you should lynch me day 3. I quickly posted my draft post because I thought it would confirm me as a civilian. That's the stream of conscious of my memory of how that all went down. Other tidbits. I was the first vote for GBG. It was initially a joke and I was going to switch to Delap in OT. Thankfully I didn't. Also, when Pete said he was going to investigate me I firmly told him I'd be revealed as a civilian. Canes later confirmed that the secret roles would be investigated as civilians. There's really only one way I'd know that. Cliffs notes version for other posters: he never answers how he is a confirmed civ You're smarter than this. |
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Post by SPL on Jul 18, 2017 13:32:06 GMT -6
spl
20s
pete
delap
timpig
fecta
heebs
This is who we have left correct? Original post is not being updated and trying to get a look at who is left.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 13:35:14 GMT -6
so let's presume for a second heebs is a vigilante, and that we go another round w/o executing the bodyguard or having them die at night, but we don't catch the don. We'd be looking at Pete Heebs Bodyguard unknown unknown with two kills thanks to the vigilante talent. So if the bodyguard comes forward next round, we should be able to lynch one unknown and vigilante kill the other I could get on board with this but let's flesh it out - what if Heebs is the don? Do we screw ourselves in that case? I played it out - would be left with pete and Heebs left on Day 5 and mafia would win |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 13:36:52 GMT -6
Kill me today if you want.
But do me a favor and kill 20s tomorrow.
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jul 18, 2017 13:37:53 GMT -6
spl 20s pete delap timpig fecta heebs This is who we have left correct? Original post is not being updated and trying to get a look at who is left. OP is updated. |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 13:38:17 GMT -6
spl 20s pete delap timpig fecta heebs This is who we have left correct? Original post is not being updated and trying to get a look at who is left. Yes so what I did was assume we vote fecta out this round (confirmed not bodyguard and we need bodyguard to survive the night for Pete's idea) mafia kills me at night pete heebs bodyguard unconfirmed unconfirmed last 3 would be made up of: delap TimPig and SPL bodyguard comes forward so we kill the other two via lynching and vigilante, mafia takes out BG pete and Heebs left for day 5, mafia win (if Heebs if the don) |
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Post by TimPig on Jul 18, 2017 13:39:36 GMT -6
how are you a confirmed civ? I could have been colluding with JHB on day 2 to take people off my trail. But it would have been highly engineered and hard to pull off. If you review day 2 with the thought "does this sound like the vigilante" I think you'll see I was actively trying to play dumb well before you outed JHB. After you outed him, I wanted BG protection for you. Odin pointed out that was dumb. I agreed and considered whether I should come out to get BG protection. I wrote a post with my admission. I didn't post it, instead asking if the vigilante should announce as a general question for the town. JHB came out saying I was vigilante. After he said that, players started suggesting he said that to keep the town from lynching me and that you should lynch me day 3. I quickly posted my draft post because I thought it would confirm me as a civilian. That's the stream of conscious of my memory of how that all went down. Other tidbits. I was the first vote for GBG. It was initially a joke and I was going to switch to Delap in OT. Thankfully I didn't. Also, when Pete said he was going to investigate me I firmly told him I'd be revealed as a civilian. Canes later confirmed that the secret roles would be investigated as civilians. There's really only one way I'd know that. To avoid me getting voted out Day 3, here is the post I was writing that I stopped writing to ask the question that gave me away and caused JHB to confirm for everyone that I am a civilian. I'll write more about this later, but for now I'm posting it cut/paste quickly for the sake of credibility. ********* Ok. I am the vigilante. I have one shot left, which I cannot use until night 4. I am aligned with the town. I killed Bankz because he was a late vote to delap to give him three votes to tie GBG. I knew GBG was mafia. I had a feeling Delap, who voted to save himself and could have voted for JHB (didn't know at the time JHB was mafia), was a civ. So Bankz was the person I thought most likely was mafia. Plus I really enjoyed killing Bankz. It was more satisfying than it should have been and I kind of enjoy it more now knowing how pissed he is in the dead civ PM. Given that Pete is nothing more than a verified civ since he cannot uncover the godfather, I would appreciate BG protection through night 4. I'm open to input on how to Uhh...which is it? |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 13:40:52 GMT -6
I knew he was mafia during night 1, when I made the decision to kill Bankz.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 13:43:03 GMT -6
Kill me today if you want. But do me a favor and kill 20s tomorrow. After this game I will compile a history of all the crusades you have led against me where you have been wrong. I'll include the dead civ PM from last game where you were convinced I was mafia as well. This will just tack another one on. You have some paranoia where you are worried about me pulling one over on you as mafia that seems to make you hyper-vigilant to anything to my actions and anything that can be twisted as suspicious sets off alarms and works as confirmation bias to your pre-existing concern |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 13:45:02 GMT -6
If you were civilian, you wouldn't be trying to gin up the town to kill me. You're smart enough to see the weight of the evidence that I am in fact the vigilante.
I don't even think we should bother with Fecta. I think that was JHB trying to buy one more day of lynching for the mafia.
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Post by FectaDEEZ on Jul 18, 2017 13:50:51 GMT -6
If you were civilian, you wouldn't be trying to gin up the town to kill me. You're smart enough to see the weight of the evidence that I am in fact the vigilante. I don't even think we should bother with Fecta. I think that was JHB trying to buy one more day of lynching for the mafia. |
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Post by TimPig on Jul 18, 2017 13:51:17 GMT -6
spl 20s pete delap timpig fecta heebs This is who we have left correct? Original post is not being updated and trying to get a look at who is left. Yes so what I did was assume we vote fecta out this round (confirmed not bodyguard and we need bodyguard to survive the night for Pete's idea) mafia kills me at night pete heebs bodyguard unconfirmed unconfirmed last 3 would be made up of: delap TimPig and SPL bodyguard comes forward so we kill the other two via lynching and vigilante, mafia takes out BG pete and Heebs left for day 5, mafia win (if Heebs if the don) Can we trust if someone comes out as bodyguard? |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 13:51:35 GMT -6
Also 20s Navidad - let's do it now. There was game 2 when you refused to say you were a civilian. And there was the last game when I thought you were pulling a fake cop. Odin was actually the originator of that theory. I just bought into it iirc. Now there is this game. Was there another time? |
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Post by Delap on Jul 18, 2017 13:59:35 GMT -6
spl 20s pete delap timpig fecta heebs This is who we have left correct? Original post is not being updated and trying to get a look at who is left. Yes so what I did was assume we vote fecta out this round (confirmed not bodyguard and we need bodyguard to survive the night for Pete's idea) mafia kills me at night pete heebs bodyguard unconfirmed unconfirmed last 3 would be made up of: delap TimPig and SPL bodyguard comes forward so we kill the other two via lynching and vigilante, mafia takes out BG pete and Heebs left for day 5, mafia win (if Heebs if the don) Let's check the math: Kill player 1 tonight Mafia kills player 2 Leaves 2 civs, heebs, pete, and the don Hopefully one of those civs is the BG and can come out then heebs/pete/BG have a 50/50 shot to kill the don. If they miss, the mafia wins. So this strategy yields a 50/50 resolution... assuming heebs is legit AND the BG survives the day/night |
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 14:04:36 GMT -6
Yes so what I did was assume we vote fecta out this round (confirmed not bodyguard and we need bodyguard to survive the night for Pete's idea) mafia kills me at night pete heebs bodyguard unconfirmed unconfirmed last 3 would be made up of: delap TimPig and SPL bodyguard comes forward so we kill the other two via lynching and vigilante, mafia takes out BG pete and Heebs left for day 5, mafia win (if Heebs if the don) Can we trust if someone comes out as bodyguard? At that point it would only make sense for them to do so - they would be coming out as bodyguard so we don't waste one of the 2 kills on the BG If more than 1 person comes out as BG, then one of them would obviously be mafia and we would just kill both of them so we get the mafioso |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 18, 2017 14:06:02 GMT -6
The tricky thing w/ this secret role stuff is we have no idea if they are town aligned or not.
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 14:07:33 GMT -6
Yes so what I did was assume we vote fecta out this round (confirmed not bodyguard and we need bodyguard to survive the night for Pete's idea) mafia kills me at night pete heebs bodyguard unconfirmed unconfirmed last 3 would be made up of: delap TimPig and SPL bodyguard comes forward so we kill the other two via lynching and vigilante, mafia takes out BG pete and Heebs left for day 5, mafia win (if Heebs if the don) Let's check the math: Kill player 1 tonight Mafia kills player 2 Leaves 2 civs, heebs, pete, and the don Hopefully one of those civs is the BG and can come out then heebs/pete/BG have a 50/50 shot to kill the don. If they miss, the mafia wins. So this strategy yields a 50/50 resolution... assuming heebs is legit AND the BG survives the day/night This isn't quite right they could take out both of the unknowns. It is 100% effective if pete and Heebs are Civs 0% effective if one is the Don i just don't see how putting all our trust in Heebs being civ makes the most sense at this point |
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jul 18, 2017 14:08:36 GMT -6
The tricky thing w/ this secret role stuff is we have no idea if they are town aligned or not. what do you mean by this statement? |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 18, 2017 14:08:49 GMT -6
I agree. I'm not ready to go w/ the strategy because I don't buy that heebs is a confirmed civ despite his insistence that he is
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Post by 20s Navidad on Jul 18, 2017 14:09:12 GMT -6
The tricky thing w/ this secret role stuff is we have no idea if they are town aligned or not. what do you mean by this statement? We have no idea if the secret roles are town aligned or not. |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 14:09:19 GMT -6
The tricky thing w/ this secret role stuff is we have no idea if they are town aligned or not. All I can say is that if I were mafia aligned, I would have killed Delap, Odin, or JHB night one because they killed a mafia in OT. I would have used my theory for why I killed Bankz to try to put him on the block day 2, not used one of my two kills on him. |
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Post by Lazy Pete on Jul 18, 2017 14:11:10 GMT -6
The tricky thing w/ this secret role stuff is we have no idea if they are town aligned or not. All I can say is that if I were mafia aligned, I would have killed Delap, Odin, or JHB night one because they killed a mafia in OT. I would have used my theory for why I killed Bankz to try to put him on the block day 2, not used one of my two kills on him. that logic doesn't hold water to me. You would kill one of them for revenge? |
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Post by Delap on Jul 18, 2017 14:12:37 GMT -6
Yeah, I'm one of the guys named and that doesn't make sense. I killed gbg out of self-preservation and because I think I'm more valuable than him, generally.
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Post by Citizen Cane on Jul 18, 2017 14:13:10 GMT -6
what do you mean by this statement? We have no idea if the secret roles are town aligned or not. ok. this I can't answer. I thought he was asking if he didn't know who the bodyguard was aligned with. |
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Post by Heebs on Jul 18, 2017 14:14:25 GMT -6
All I can say is that if I were mafia aligned, I would have killed Delap, Odin, or JHB night one because they killed a mafia in OT. I would have used my theory for why I killed Bankz to try to put him on the block day 2, not used one of my two kills on him. that logic doesn't hold water to me. You would kill one of them for revenge? If I were aligned with the mafia, I'd be trying to kill civilians. I'd have killed one of those three because at that point they are the most likely civilians. |
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