Post by eric on Oct 7, 2017 13:06:46 GMT -6
Spurs over the Bucks for the title
.
EAST
Bucks
It happens faster than you think with young teams and old teams. The 87 Celtics were in their fourth straight Finals with an all time great small forward and didn't get back until 08, the 90 Pistons won their second straight title and didn't get back to the Finals until 04, the 95 Rockets, the 04 Lakers, the 07 Spurs *and* Cavs, the 10 Lakers *and* Celtics, I could go on. It's always obvious after the fact, meanwhile before the fact chuckleheads are out here picking the 2011 Lakers for the title. How'd that goink?
Anyway, Giannis is a star. Middleton won't miss as much time. Parker is out, but when he comes back he should be hitting his prime. Another year of growth and continuity for Brogladova. Bucks #1.
Celtics
They were third in East Pythagorean Wins last year and it showed in the playoffs. They sent out their two best perimeter defenders and three(!) rotation bigs. Gordon Hayward is the runaway candidate for this year's LaMarcus Aldridge Award for offseason acquisition everyone talks themselves into as an elite player only to be shocked when they put up a garbage 16 and 7 every night and disappear in the playoffs. But with the teams ahead of them going down (more on this later) they stay at #2 by default before getting run by the Cavs again, this time in the second round. Spoiler alert.
Cavs
This is how it works: you're young until you're not. NBA players prime years are on average year four through year ten, inclusive. Great players can extend that by a year or two. LeBron is in year fifteen. He's going to be worse this year than he was last year, just like he was last year. Kevin Love is in year ten. He maybe will be as good and maybe will start decline early, but definitely isn't getting better. Isaiah is projected out until January, probably didn't turn into Steph Curry in year six, and has multiple instances of feuding with star teammates. Jeff Green has had negative on/off literally every year of his nine year career. Derrick Rose made as many threes as Anthony Bennett last year. They're playing Kevin Love at center. Jimmy Jones retired #intangibles #champ
They'll turn it on for the playoffs, but it won't be enough.
Wizards
They are who they are. Continuity and being young and good will keep them going.
Raptors
The TDot actually led the East in Pythagorean Wins last year. But Kyle Lowry had the best production of his career in year eleven. Good luck with that. And DeMar DeRozan is the worst basketball player in the world. Good luck with that.
Heat
Were fifth in Pythagorean Wins last year and should have Justise back for whatever that's worth, but where else is the growth coming from? Kelly Olynyk? Dion Waiters?
Josh Richardson and Rodney McGruder should be better but they've got a long way to go.
Everybody Else
Oy. Charlotte purposefully(?) brought in Michael Carter-Williams and Dwight Howard. Chicago blew it up. Bradley would be a fantastic glue guy for Detroit but he's their best player, so. The 76ers added a ton of actual NBA players, but were third bottom last year. #TrustButVerify
.
WEST
Warriors
Duh.
Spurs
This is the year Patty Mills finally gets the reins from Tony Parker. He doesn't have the penetration but he can play defense better than you and me and he is a great shooter, and the Spurs are kind of good at generating offense with cuts and passing so having a dynamic ball handler isn't as critical. Fun fact: Pau Gasol shot 54% on 104 three point attempts after being liberated from successive horrible basketball situations in Kobeland and Chiraq. You don't think Pop can coax the same magic out of Rudy Gay? Joffrey Lauvergne should have been a Spur from day one. Jaron Blossomgame is guaranteed to follow three straight DNP-CDs with a random 25 point outburst in a playoff game.
Kawhi Leonard is the best player in the NBA.
And that's why the Spurs will win it all.
Rockets
The Clippers were the closest team below the Rockets last year, and their best player is a Rocket now, and he's literally a prince. That kind of regal defense is just the thing to keep the Rockets chugging along way below the top two teams. They also added Chris Paul. Chris Paul what? What do you mean Paul's his last name? FOH.
Thunder
Carmelo is just not a good basketball player. People are talking him up the same way they were screaming bloody murder about Kobe getting ranked 25 in ESPN's 2013 offseason NBARank... and then he played 3247 minutes of replacement level ball over the next three years. Carmelo's only going into year fifteen rather than year eighteen but he was never even as good as borderline Hall of Famer Kobe Bryant. He's bad. Just stop.
Paul George is legitimately good. Not great, as his never making All-NBA Second Team indicates, but legitimately good.
Russell Westbrook has never played well with others, cupcake.
But who else is there? So the Thunder get four.
Nuggets
They were middling, added a good (albeit declining) player in Millsap, and will (hopefully) start Jokic from day one.
Clippers
Again, who else is there? There's at least legit talent on this team, and now Doc can devote his full attention to coaching
No but seriously, these three teams are all a push in my mind. Wouldn't be surprised by any order, would be shocked to see any of them get 3+ or 7-.
Timberwolves and Pelicans
Every year is THEIR YEAR and every year it isn't. My boy JVG called Anthony Davis a top five player in the NBA. The Pelicans front office looked at the Thunder snapping up every long perimeter player who can't shoot threes and thought "hey if everyone in the NBA can beat 'em, join 'em" which shouldn't be a problem at all with noted elite leader and great locker room guy DeMarcus Cousins. Butler and Towns are elite players. Wiggins is still going to take 20 shots a game, including 5 hideous long twos. It'll be a mess. I wouldn't be shocked if either team caught the Clippers. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams missed the playoffs.
Everyone Else
Trash. Georgie Hill and Ricky Rubio are both fantastically underrated point guards, but the Jazz are on the losing end of that swap. Everything about the Kings is bad. Portland ran it back after a .500 season. Memphis and Dallas are washed.
.
EAST
Bucks
It happens faster than you think with young teams and old teams. The 87 Celtics were in their fourth straight Finals with an all time great small forward and didn't get back until 08, the 90 Pistons won their second straight title and didn't get back to the Finals until 04, the 95 Rockets, the 04 Lakers, the 07 Spurs *and* Cavs, the 10 Lakers *and* Celtics, I could go on. It's always obvious after the fact, meanwhile before the fact chuckleheads are out here picking the 2011 Lakers for the title. How'd that goink?
Anyway, Giannis is a star. Middleton won't miss as much time. Parker is out, but when he comes back he should be hitting his prime. Another year of growth and continuity for Brogladova. Bucks #1.
Celtics
They were third in East Pythagorean Wins last year and it showed in the playoffs. They sent out their two best perimeter defenders and three(!) rotation bigs. Gordon Hayward is the runaway candidate for this year's LaMarcus Aldridge Award for offseason acquisition everyone talks themselves into as an elite player only to be shocked when they put up a garbage 16 and 7 every night and disappear in the playoffs. But with the teams ahead of them going down (more on this later) they stay at #2 by default before getting run by the Cavs again, this time in the second round. Spoiler alert.
Cavs
This is how it works: you're young until you're not. NBA players prime years are on average year four through year ten, inclusive. Great players can extend that by a year or two. LeBron is in year fifteen. He's going to be worse this year than he was last year, just like he was last year. Kevin Love is in year ten. He maybe will be as good and maybe will start decline early, but definitely isn't getting better. Isaiah is projected out until January, probably didn't turn into Steph Curry in year six, and has multiple instances of feuding with star teammates. Jeff Green has had negative on/off literally every year of his nine year career. Derrick Rose made as many threes as Anthony Bennett last year. They're playing Kevin Love at center. Jimmy Jones retired #intangibles #champ
They'll turn it on for the playoffs, but it won't be enough.
Wizards
They are who they are. Continuity and being young and good will keep them going.
Raptors
The TDot actually led the East in Pythagorean Wins last year. But Kyle Lowry had the best production of his career in year eleven. Good luck with that. And DeMar DeRozan is the worst basketball player in the world. Good luck with that.
Heat
Were fifth in Pythagorean Wins last year and should have Justise back for whatever that's worth, but where else is the growth coming from? Kelly Olynyk? Dion Waiters?
Josh Richardson and Rodney McGruder should be better but they've got a long way to go.Everybody Else
Oy. Charlotte purposefully(?) brought in Michael Carter-Williams and Dwight Howard. Chicago blew it up. Bradley would be a fantastic glue guy for Detroit but he's their best player, so. The 76ers added a ton of actual NBA players, but were third bottom last year. #TrustButVerify
.
WEST
Warriors
Duh.
Spurs
This is the year Patty Mills finally gets the reins from Tony Parker. He doesn't have the penetration but he can play defense better than you and me and he is a great shooter, and the Spurs are kind of good at generating offense with cuts and passing so having a dynamic ball handler isn't as critical. Fun fact: Pau Gasol shot 54% on 104 three point attempts after being liberated from successive horrible basketball situations in Kobeland and Chiraq. You don't think Pop can coax the same magic out of Rudy Gay? Joffrey Lauvergne should have been a Spur from day one. Jaron Blossomgame is guaranteed to follow three straight DNP-CDs with a random 25 point outburst in a playoff game.
Kawhi Leonard is the best player in the NBA.
And that's why the Spurs will win it all.
Rockets
The Clippers were the closest team below the Rockets last year, and their best player is a Rocket now, and he's literally a prince. That kind of regal defense is just the thing to keep the Rockets chugging along way below the top two teams. They also added Chris Paul. Chris Paul what? What do you mean Paul's his last name? FOH.
Thunder
Carmelo is just not a good basketball player. People are talking him up the same way they were screaming bloody murder about Kobe getting ranked 25 in ESPN's 2013 offseason NBARank... and then he played 3247 minutes of replacement level ball over the next three years. Carmelo's only going into year fifteen rather than year eighteen but he was never even as good as borderline Hall of Famer Kobe Bryant. He's bad. Just stop.
Paul George is legitimately good. Not great, as his never making All-NBA Second Team indicates, but legitimately good.
Russell Westbrook has never played well with others, cupcake.
But who else is there? So the Thunder get four.
Nuggets
They were middling, added a good (albeit declining) player in Millsap, and will (hopefully) start Jokic from day one.
Clippers
Again, who else is there? There's at least legit talent on this team, and now Doc can devote his full attention to coaching
No but seriously, these three teams are all a push in my mind. Wouldn't be surprised by any order, would be shocked to see any of them get 3+ or 7-.
Timberwolves and Pelicans
Every year is THEIR YEAR and every year it isn't. My boy JVG called Anthony Davis a top five player in the NBA.
The Pelicans front office looked at the Thunder snapping up every long perimeter player who can't shoot threes and thought "hey if everyone in the NBA can beat 'em, join 'em" which shouldn't be a problem at all with noted elite leader and great locker room guy DeMarcus Cousins. Butler and Towns are elite players. Wiggins is still going to take 20 shots a game, including 5 hideous long twos. It'll be a mess. I wouldn't be shocked if either team caught the Clippers. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams missed the playoffs.Everyone Else
Trash. Georgie Hill and Ricky Rubio are both fantastically underrated point guards, but the Jazz are on the losing end of that swap. Everything about the Kings is bad. Portland ran it back after a .500 season. Memphis and Dallas are washed.
