NBA 2018 Season Ten Game Hot Reads (1,184 views)

[eric]

Teams are at or around ten games in, so let's get some HOT READS.

First of all, let's see how the teams project given their Pythagorean W%, so if a team has a .500 Pyth W% but is currently 0-10, then their projection would be 36-46. Here they are:

64 Boston Celtics
58 Toronto Raptors
53 Orlando Magic
52 Detroit Pistons
47 Washington Wizards
46 Indiana Pacers
44 Charlotte Hornets
39 Philadelphia 76ers
--- ---
38 New York Knicks
36 Miami Heat 
33 Milwaukee Bucks 
29 Cleveland Cavaliers 
29 Brooklyn Nets 
23 Chicago Bulls 
18 Atlanta Hawks 


61 Golden State Warriors
61 Oklahoma City Thunder
57 Los Angeles Clippers
57 Portland Trail Blazers
54 Memphis Grizzlies
54 Houston Rockets
47 Utah Jazz
40 Denver Nuggets
--- ---
40 New Orleans Pelicans
37 Los Angeles Lakers 
37 Minnesota Timberwolves
36 San Antonio Spurs
21 Phoenix Suns 
16 Dallas Mavericks 
12 Sacramento Kings 
Things looking pretty dicey for whatever moron picked Spurs-Bucks in the Finals. Pelicans and Wolves out of the playoffs again (again, again again again again). Cavs not looking to likely to hit the over on 53.

Real Plus Minus isn't available yet but we can look at Win Shares and Wins Produced to see our current top ten stat people:

2.76 LeBron James
2.73 Clint Capela
2.71 Stephen Curry
2.66 Anthony Davis
2.66 Andre Drummond
2.53 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.49 Steven Adams
2.45 DeMarcus Cousins
2.34 Rudy Gobert
2.33 Damian Lillard
2.31 Evan Fournier
2.28 Al Horford
Combined with the above this gives us a current MVP ballot of: Curry, Adams, Horford, All The Raptors Guys Have Bad Stats So Who Knows, James

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We Were Promised Team USA Melo

In international play Carmelo Anthony took 50% of his shots from three and made 42% of them en route to 25 points, 8 boards, and 2.2 assists against 1.7 turnovers per 36 minutes.

So far this year he is taking 38% of his shots from three (much higher than the 26% he's taken over the previous five years) and making a scorching 32% of them (not so much). His per 36 line comes to 23, 6, and 1.9 against 1.8. We certainly expect him to bring that 3P% up some but until they move the three point line in a couple feet 42% is probably out of the question.

FIBA record keeping isn't as fine grained as NBA so we can't say for sure how often he had the ball in his hands there. We can say for sure that he has the ball in his hands less in OKC than in any previous year of his NBA career at 18% of his team's possessions. (Previous low was 20% in his second year.) Remember, the only time he made the Conference Finals was not because he changed his playing style then or since. He posted a 28% that year with the same ball-hoggy midrange-heavy shot profile he's always had. That team made the Conference Finals because Chauncey Billups was their best player, plain and simple.

Paul George has also seen a steep drop in the ball being in his hands. Though his 18% isn't a career low he was at 30% two years ago so the drop is roughly as precipitous, and like Carmelo he has seen a steep drop in his already modest assist totals. We were wondering which one of Carmelo and George would get the Chris Bosh role, but so far it looks like both of them.

Now to be fair Westbrook also has had the ball in his hands less this year, but at 61% it's still the second highest figure of his career, which is not what anyone signed up for.

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As we saw above they have a great margin of victory so something's working for them, but it's clearly not great chemistry with their Big Three. Westbrook is posting a -5 on/off, Paul George is posting a -14(!!!), Carmelo is posting a +3 but a hilarious +9 on defense (plus is bad on defense).

.

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Current Dwyane Wade 3P%: 22%

Current Lonzo Ball FG/3P/FT: 31% / 26% / 50%

Current Victor Oladipo FG/3P/FT: 50% / 49% / 87%

Current Victor Oladpio FG% if he hit his career average of 35% from three: 45%

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Player A: 19 pts, 6 reb, 1.1 ast : 1.4 tov per 36 minutes, 47/32/75
Player B: 20 pts, 4 reb, 2.1 ast : 2.2 tov per 36 minutes, 45/33/75

They are two of only seven players 6'8" or shorter to record 4000+ minutes since 2015 and have more turnovers than assists.

And they're teammates.

Shabazz Muhammad and Andrew Wiggins.

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We talked last year about Zaza Pachulia's hilariously low minutes for a starter. This year he's threatening the all time record of Marc Iavaroni's 15.3 MP / g in 71 starts for the 1988 Utah Jazz. As if to get his money's worth, he has also ramped up his turnovers dramatically, posting a career high 3.7 per 36 minutes. You have to wonder if the Warriors would be better off if he literally stayed in the back court on offense.

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Let's end on a high note by noting those centers who have become less incompetent rather than more. Andre Drummond is hitting 75% ± 14% from the free throw line, a statistically significant improvement on his career 39% ± 2%. If he can even hit 60% on the year you'll never find a more dramatic increase, what with him having previously been the worst FT shooter of all time, but there have been other centers who significantly improved their FT%:
Marc Gasol went from 72% his first four years to 82% since,
Clint Capela went from 17% (seventeen!!) to 38% to 53% to 80% so far this year,
Joel Embiid went from 69% in college (from the shorter line!) (wait nevermind) to 78% in the pros, and even The Great
Tim Duncan went from 68% his first ten years to 73% in his last nine

There are just so many examples of big guys learning how improve their free throws that you wonder how and why other guys never seem to figure it out. There are the obvious targets like Dwight and DeAndre but then there are guys like LeBron James. Granted he is hitting 83% so far this year, but when you're at the absolute peak is when incremental changes are most significant. Most NBA skills require a baseline of athleticism: jumping high enough, running quickly enough, reacting fast enough. Free throw shooting isn't one of them. Players of any shape and size can hit 80% from the line. There's just no excuse for a great player only being in the 70s or lower.

[BKay Jewelers]

Thanks eric

[eric]

Let's Talk About Bledsoe

He shoots .334 from three. Of the 121 active players to take at least 1000 threes since 2011, this is good for 109th. He's bad at threes.

He has recorded 1139 turnovers against 1933 assists. Of the 39 active players to have at least 1000 turnovers in the same span, his assists are 27th. He's poor at ball handling.

He has been the best player on the Phoenix Suns since he chased Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas out of town (more on this later) in which time they have gone 86 and 160 overall (29 win pace over 82 games) and 73 and 105 when he played (34 win pace). He has posted a .10 WS/48 on his career (league average).

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The Bucks current starting back court is Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell. Replacing either with Bledsoe is a negative proposition.

Brogdon is a much better shooter (career 41% from three) and ball handler (career 2.8 ast:tov), and he has the ball in his hands less than Bledsoe (28% to 42%).

Snell is a better shooter (38% from three) albeit with the same limited handling ability (1.5 ast:tov). However, he has the ball much, much, MUCH less than Bledsoe (9%!!! to 42%). Even if we grant the assumption that Bledsoe will use those 9% of the team's possessions more effectively, there's another 33% that he's taking from dramatically, inarguably more effective players like Brogdon, Middleton, and oh yeah Giannis.

Adding Bledsoe hurts Milwaukee on the court.

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And we have seen on at least two occasions that Bledsoe hurts the team off the court too. If the trade rumors are correct and Monroe is going for Bledsoe, he will immediately become the second most experienced player on the team after John Terry, who has played a sum total of 27 minutes this year. Everyone else has five years of experience or fewer, so even if you believe veteran presence can keep a malcontent player in line, there isn't any on this team.

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The Bucks aren't where we thought they'd be through nine games. Take a breath. Adding Bledsoe puts them $5m below the cap next year before even offering Parker. The downside is he blows up the locker room and your cap space without making you appreciably better. What's the upside? This is year eight for Bledsoe, which year so far gives us any indication he's a championship player?

[20s Navidad]

Nov 7, 2017 13:20:16 GMT -6 eric said:

Let's Talk About Bledsoe

He shoots .334 from three. Of the 121 active players to take at least 1000 threes since 2011, this is good for 109th. He's bad at threes.

He has recorded 1139 turnovers against 1933 assists. Of the 39 active players to have at least 1000 turnovers in the same span, his assists are 27th. He's poor at ball handling.

He has been the best player on the Phoenix Suns since he chased Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas out of town (more on this later) in which time they have gone 86 and 160 overall (29 win pace over 82 games) and 73 and 105 when he played (34 win pace). He has posted a .10 WS/48 on his career (league average).

.

The Bucks current starting back court is Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell. Replacing either with Bledsoe is a negative proposition.

Brogdon is a much better shooter (career 41% from three) and ball handler (career 2.8 ast:tov), and he has the ball in his hands less than Bledsoe (28% to 42%).

Snell is a better shooter (38% from three) albeit with the same limited handling ability (1.5 ast:tov). However, he has the ball much, much, MUCH less than Bledsoe (9%!!! to 42%). Even if we grant the assumption that Bledsoe will use those 9% of the team's possessions more effectively, there's another 33% that he's taking from dramatically, inarguably more effective players like Brogdon, Middleton, and oh yeah Giannis.

Adding Bledsoe hurts Milwaukee on the court.

.

And we have seen on at least two occasions that Bledsoe hurts the team off the court too. If the trade rumors are correct and Monroe is going for Bledsoe, he will immediately become the second most experienced player on the team after John Terry, who has played a sum total of 27 minutes this year. Everyone else has five years of experience or fewer, so even if you believe veteran presence can keep a malcontent player in line, there isn't any on this team.

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The Bucks aren't where we thought they'd be through nine games. Take a breath. Adding Bledsoe puts them $5m below the cap next year before even offering Parker. The downside is he blows up the locker room and your cap space without making you appreciably better. What's the upside? This is year eight for Bledsoe, which year so far gives us any indication he's a championship player?

Not sure where you got this from but it's pretty terrible. Assist/Turnover ratio does not equate to ballhandling ability, there's no universe in which Tony Snell is a better ball handler than Bledsoe. Arguably the Bucks biggest issue was the lack of players who could create/get to the bucket besides Giannis, Bledsoe is a better creator than anyone on the Bucks after Giannis

[BKay Jewelers]

Yes Eric but what is his stl:to ratio?!?

[eric]

Nov 7, 2017 14:16:26 GMT -6 20s Navidad said:

Nov 7, 2017 13:20:16 GMT -6 eric said:

Let's Talk About Bledsoe

He shoots .334 from three. Of the 121 active players to take at least 1000 threes since 2011, this is good for 109th. He's bad at threes.

He has recorded 1139 turnovers against 1933 assists. Of the 39 active players to have at least 1000 turnovers in the same span, his assists are 27th. He's poor at ball handling.

He has been the best player on the Phoenix Suns since he chased Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas out of town (more on this later) in which time they have gone 86 and 160 overall (29 win pace over 82 games) and 73 and 105 when he played (34 win pace). He has posted a .10 WS/48 on his career (league average).

.

The Bucks current starting back court is Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell. Replacing either with Bledsoe is a negative proposition.

Brogdon is a much better shooter (career 41% from three) and ball handler (career 2.8 ast:tov), and he has the ball in his hands less than Bledsoe (28% to 42%).

Snell is a better shooter (38% from three) albeit with the same limited handling ability (1.5 ast:tov). However, he has the ball much, much, MUCH less than Bledsoe (9%!!! to 42%). Even if we grant the assumption that Bledsoe will use those 9% of the team's possessions more effectively, there's another 33% that he's taking from dramatically, inarguably more effective players like Brogdon, Middleton, and oh yeah Giannis.

Adding Bledsoe hurts Milwaukee on the court.

.

And we have seen on at least two occasions that Bledsoe hurts the team off the court too. If the trade rumors are correct and Monroe is going for Bledsoe, he will immediately become the second most experienced player on the team after John Terry, who has played a sum total of 27 minutes this year. Everyone else has five years of experience or fewer, so even if you believe veteran presence can keep a malcontent player in line, there isn't any on this team.

.

The Bucks aren't where we thought they'd be through nine games. Take a breath. Adding Bledsoe puts them $5m below the cap next year before even offering Parker. The downside is he blows up the locker room and your cap space without making you appreciably better. What's the upside? This is year eight for Bledsoe, which year so far gives us any indication he's a championship player?

Not sure where you got this from but it's pretty terrible. Assist/Turnover ratio does not equate to ballhandling ability, there's no universe in which Tony Snell is a better ball handler than Bledsoe. Arguably the Bucks biggest issue was the lack of players who could create/get to the bucket besides Giannis, Bledsoe is a better creator than anyone on the Bucks after Giannis

Let's look at the top and bottom of those 39 players.

4.23 Chris Paul
2.95 Rajon Rondo
2.91 Mike Conley

1.04 Rudy Gay
0.87 DeMarcus Cousins
0.52 Dwight Howard
Looks pretty accurate to me. How do you measure ball handling ability?

We can talk creating too. Bledsoe's putting up 6 assists per 36 mp on his career compared to Brogdon's... 6, and as already demonstrated Brogdon has the ball in his hands way less, and you can't get an assist without the ball. Sounds like Brogdon's doing that job at least as well already, and with less turnovers, and with much better shooting so when he doesn't have the ball in his hands he's not a glaring negative.

[kn88]

Otto is the MVP of everything

[eric]

let's get a Sunday update on projected records:

1 65 Boston Celtics
2 55 Detroit Pistons
3 53 Toronto Raptors
4 52 Washington Wizards
5 49 Orlando Magic
6 45 New York Knicks
7 42 Indiana Pacers 
8 40 Miami Heat
--- ---
9 37 Milwaukee Bucks
10 37 Philadelphia 76ers
11 36 Charlotte Hornets 
12 34 Cleveland Cavaliers 
13 31 Brooklyn Nets 
14 19 Atlanta Hawks 
15 15 Chicago Bulls 


1 66 Golden State Warriors
2 59 Houston Rockets
3 52 Portland Trail Blazers
4 51 Oklahoma City Thunder 
5 50 San Antonio Spurs
6 48 Denver Nuggets
7 47 Memphis Grizzlies
8 44 Los Angeles Clippers 
--- ---
9 42 New Orleans Pelicans
10 37 Utah Jazz
11 35 Minnesota Timberwolves
12 32 Los Angeles Lakers 
13 21 Phoenix Suns 
14 20 Dallas Mavericks 
15 16 Sacramento Kings 

ESPN still hasn't gotten Real Plus Minus posted yet, so I'll skip the MVP watch. Some stats of note:

Dwyane Wade 3P%: 21%
Derrick Rose MPG: 27
Lonzo Ball FG%: 31%

Lonzo is on track for 984 field goal attempts. In the shot clock era, no player has ever taken 900 attempts without cracking 33 FG%.

Before the shot clock era, Joe "IDGA" Fulks once took 1209 shots and made 336 in a season. That's a stiff 28%. To be fair, he did tally a total of 56 assists in 68 games played, good for eighth on the team behind Mike "Steve" Novak, so it's not like he was a ball hog.

Wait a minute. Strike that. Reverse it. He was a complete ball hog who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with both hands in a paper bag.

And he's a Hall of Famer.

What I'm saying is, there's hope for Kobe yet.

[Lazy Pete]

I watched Lonzo in person on Thursday and came away thinking the awful shooting stats I had seen still didn't prepare me for how bad he was. It was like watching rookie year Jan Vesely all over again.

[eric]

Cavs are struggling right now, which means it's time for people to trot out the old they can't win with Kevin Love chestnut:

"No matter what Cleveland does over the next few months, Love’s playing time could be cut in the playoffs. Lue has to make rotation decisions with defense in mind. LeBron’s offense will keep them in any series. Not even Golden State can stop him when he puts his head down and attacks the rim. He averaged 33.6 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists a game on 56.4 percent shooting in last season’s Finals. They still lost in five games because Cleveland had a defensive rating of 117.5, and Love had the worst net rating (minus-13.6) of anyone on their roster."

That's great. That's all true. You know what else is true? Love had a +5 net rating in the 2016 Finals, part of which was played while recovering from a concussion, and (as you may have heard) the Cavaliers successfully beat the Warriors.

The Cavs can win with Kevin Love. We know this because they already have. It never ceases to amaze me how certain people won't let go of their Love hate.

[eric]

What the Blue H*ck Happened to Jimmy Butler?

He was a top ten player over the last three years - eighth in aggregate Win Shares even playing for some terrible Bulls squads, one of eleven players to be All-Star all three years, top tier tweets.

And now he STINKS.

.210 ws/48 to .095
5.3 BPM to 0.7
23 PER to 16
46/35 from the field to 42/31

I don't want to cast aspersions without evidence but Andrew Wiggins' total lack of will to win looks to be contagious.

[eric]

quick reads from the first half of 76ers Lakers game last night

Embiid has slow feet (and sneaky not great wingspan) but strong instincts. You can't teach any of that but if you gotta pick one you definitely want the last one. He knows guys are gonna blow by him but he keeps good angles, active hands but doesn't reach, jumps second to contest, verticality, knows his rotations, even knows other peoples' rotations and points them out for them.

He's got great footwork and even busted out a Eurostep last night, he's so big with such good touch that he can score 20 ppg for as many years as he wants. The jump shooting has fallen off in a big way (from 1.07 points per long jumper last year to 0.74 this year) He's got good easy form so I think it'll come back at least a little, maybe not to Dirk levels but way better than Westbrook levels. Which brings me to my next point.

Lonzo. Ohhh Lonzo. "He was a good shooter coming into the NBA." Was is the operative word. They gotta send this guy to the G League. He looks like someone's little brother out there, he's got no belief in his shots and why would he. I've never seen a player so hopeless have such a shot load.

Ben Simmons reminds me a lot of a young LeBron where he just drives, drives, drives, drives.. but to an even more exaggerated degree. He's taken 8% of his shots beyond 16 feet. Not made! Just taken! He's only shooting 60% from the line which needs big improvement, but that's more than good enough for him to take a big boy jumper here or there.

We have to stop calling him a point guard. Just stop. It was dumb when we did it for Magic and 6'3" Byron Scott miraculously became a shooting guard, it's dumb to do it now and abruptly declare 6'3" Jerryd Bayless a shooting guard.

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All in all the 76ers have a lot of willing passers and a lot of willing random movement. Obviously if I know you're cutting to the basket we get a layup, if I don't and think you're gonna be in the corner that's a turnover. More reps, more practice, more continuity and they should become elite offensively - all that talent and so much healthy offense. They've got plenty of size on defense but I'm less confident there's a path there. I don't think Embiid has enough foot speed to ever be an elite defender in the modern NBA, Simmons and Sharich haven't shown me anything, Shu Covington has a long way to go to catch up to Sim Covington. We'll see.

[eric]

One thing I saw from Embiid I'd never seen before in the NBA. Lakers make, Saric goes to inbound the ball to some little guy. Embiid grabs him and sends him down the court, HE goes to inbound the ball instead. I've seen plenty of guys refuse to go inbound the ball. LeBron for example didn't inbound the ball once until he got to Miami, and even then only when Wade stared him down until he did. I've never seen a guy demand to do it until Embiid.

[Lazy Pete]

Eric, have you watched much Boston yet? Any thoughts on Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown? Is Brad Stevens a sorcerer?

[eric]

Nov 17, 2017 11:49:55 GMT -6 Lazy Pete said:

Eric, have you watched much Boston yet? Any thoughts on Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown? Is Brad Stevens a sorcerer?

the last guy i saw block Durant's jump shot was JaVale McGee, so Brown is in some very good company there.

they both look fine complementary players, hard to say anything more yet

[eric]

Remember when the 2014 Pacers started 18-2? Hammered the Bulls, the Grizzlies, won IN Clipperland, won IN San Antonio.

Then they finished 28-22, BARELY beat the Hawks, BARELY beat the Wizards, got thumped by LeBron's team.

Then Paul George FIBAed his leg, Lance turned back into a pumpkin, Roy Hibbert played another 4486 minutes in his NBA career, eventually turned George Hill into Jeff Teague into cap space.

And that was it for the Pacers.

One thing we all forget is old teams and old players get old faster than we expect. Another thing we all forget is that not every blossom turns into a beautiful flower. Be careful penciling in the Celtics as perennial contenders just yet.

[eric]

Listening to the Lowe Post podcast with Howard Beck, who in a recent article quoted an anonymous GM saying 'hey you know what the Cavs should do, trade LeBron!' and on the pod made the offhand remark that the Cavs don't want to be left with nothing like in 2010.

WELL ACTUALLY

That was a sign and trade, and the Cavs got two firsts and two seconds back.

And I bring it up because fun fact: one of those picks turned into Jae Crowder, who was traded to the Mavericks on draft night (for Tyler Zeller). If you haven't heard, both Crowder and LeBron have since rejoined the Cavs and are now teammates.

[eric]

Sunday update on projections:

1 64 Boston Celtics
2 57 Toronto Raptors
3 53 Washington Wizards
4 52 Detroit Pistons
5 41 New York Knicks
6 40 Indiana Pacers
7 39 Orlando Magic
8 39 Cleveland Cavaliers
--- ---
9 39 Philadelphia 76ers
10 37 Charlotte Hornets 
11 37 Miami Heat 
12 36 Milwaukee Bucks
13 33 Brooklyn Nets 
14 26 Atlanta Hawks 
15 18 Chicago Bulls 


1 64 Golden State Warriors
2 62 Houston Rockets
3 54 Portland Trail Blazers
4 53 Oklahoma City Thunder
5 49 Denver Nuggets
6 49 San Antonio Spurs
7 45 Minnesota Timberwolves
8 39 Memphis Grizzlies
--- ---
9 39 Utah Jazz 
10 38 Los Angeles Clippers 
11 36 New Orleans Pelicans
12 32 Los Angeles Lakers 
13 22 Phoenix Suns 
14 22 Dallas Mavericks 
15 14 Sacramento Kings 

We did it, fam! If things stay as they are the Cavs will make the playoffs! USA! USA! USA!

ESPN has begun publishing Real Plus Minus (though what formalism they're using this year is anyone's guess) so let's see where the MVP race currently stands:

2.81 James Harden
2.45 LeBron James
2.23 Anthony Davis
2.15 Stephen Curry
2.10 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2.08 Nikola Jokic
1.94 Damian Lillard
1.84 Al Horford
So far there's still a lot of disagreement between RPM and the two Wins stats. For example, Boogie is tied for first in RPM wins but is 28th in Win Shares and 45th(!!!) in Wins Produced, a stat that notoriously favors big men. Clint Capela meanwhile leads the league in Wins Produced, is 9th in Win Shares, but only 32nd in RPM wins. They'll get closer together as the season goes on or maybe RPM just completely crapped the bed this year. Either way! We'll find out.

Here's our MVP ballot for the best stat guys on the projected top two teams from each conference:

Harden - Curry - Horford - Some Raptors Guy - LeBron

I'm not being glib with Some Raptors Guy. I'm not JUST being glib with Some Raptors Guy, no Raptors is in the top twenty of any stat. DeMar is 23rd in WS, Lowry is 30th in WP and 28th in RPMW... meh.

[BKay Jewelers]

Lol Eric being a raptors fan makes it all make sense

[TimPig]

Nov 20, 2017 10:22:18 GMT -6 BKay Jewelers said:

Lol Eric being a raptors fan makes it all make sense

You didn't know his favorite player is Demar Derozan?

[eric]

Lonzo Ball and Analytics

There's a lot of talk about analytics these days, but what gets lost in the shuffle is what analytics fundamentally are: show me the receipts. "Player X is a great shooter," okay, show me the receipts. If they're shooting 33% from three, they're not. "Player Y is the king of the midrange, that's a good shot for them," okay, show me the receipts. If they're shooting 35% on long twos, that's bad and they should feel bad, and also get a real name, loser.

So what does this have to do with Lonzo Ball? Let's go back and read:

June 2016: "an uptempo savant with limitless range"
December 2016: "a player with unlimited range and no compunction about hoisting from way deep"
ibid: "Even when he is well behind the NBA 3-point line, he can still take another step back and fire away."
May 2017: "he can shoot the ball from way behind the 3-point line"
ibid: "more of a shooting guard who can stretch a defense out to 28-plus feet" (note: NBA three point line is 23.75 feet at its furthest)

Lonzo Ball's current NBA stats:
15-22 feet: 28%
23-26 feet: 23%
27+ feet: 20%

Note that this decline in percentage by range is typical. Consider Steph Curry's percentages from last year:
15-22 feet: 46%
23-26 feet: 43%
27+ feet: 40%

The point is that we don't have any range breakdown from Lonzo's one college season. We all saw a clip or two of him drilling a 30 footer. A clip or two does not a receipt make. I fully expect Lonzo to get up to 37%ish on long twos and 34%ish on regulation threes, which projects to 31%ish on 28 footers - poor shots. Until college breaks range down with more granularity, we should take claims of limitless range based on college (or high school) performance with many granules of salt.

[eric]

sunday update

1 64 Boston Celtics
2 57 Toronto Raptors
3 49 Washington Wizards
4 48 Detroit Pistons
5 48 Philadelphia 76ers
6 45 Cleveland Cavaliers
7 44 Indiana Pacers
8 42 New York Knicks
--- ---
9 38 Charlotte Hornets 
10 37 Miami Heat
11 34 Milwaukee Bucks
12 33 Orlando Magic 
13 31 Brooklyn Nets 
14 23 Atlanta Hawks 
15 12 Chicago Bulls 


1 65 Golden State Warriors
2 65 Houston Rockets
3 51 Portland Trail Blazers
4 50 San Antonio Spurs
5 48 Oklahoma City Thunder
6 45 Denver Nuggets
7 42 Utah Jazz
8 42 New Orleans Pelicans
--- ---
9 41 Minnesota Timberwolves
10 38 Los Angeles Clippers 
11 36 Los Angeles Lakers
12 35 Memphis Grizzlies 
13 25 Dallas Mavericks 
14 22 Phoenix Suns 
15 16 Sacramento Kings 
Watch out, the Pistons and 76ers, the Cavs are coming for your seed! A sentence no one thought would happen before the season, but here we are.

2.86 James Harden
2.48 LeBron James
2.40 Anthony Davis
2.31 Stephen Curry
2.11 Nikola Jokic
2.08 Damian Lillard
1.95 Giannis Antetokounmpo
1.75 Al Horford
Harden - Curry - Horford - Some Raptors Guy - LeBron remains our MVP ballot, but Anthony Davis is nudging up into the best stats on a crap team spot, so let's talk about Anthony Davis.

As mentioned before, if Anthony Davis ever (ever!) wins MVP, he will be the first MVP to not have won a playoff game in his first five years. He was wildly hyped coming off his third year, when he made All-NBA 1st Team, dragged a mediocre Pelicans to a first round playoff sweep, and posted truly eye-popping stats. The Great Zach Lowe even predicted he'd win MVP and DPOY. Instead, he floundered dramatically across the board. His WS/48 dropped by a third, he missed twenty games, the Pelicans finished twenty games under .500, he received 0 MVP votes, he received 0 first place DPOY votes, he didn't make any All-NBA or All-Defense team, the Pelicans were better when he sat to the tune of 2 points per 100 possessions. Other than that it went exactly as planned. Also worth noting is that he had season ending surgery at the end of this year. Before that he had nicks and knocks but nothing where he had to go under the knife.

His 2017 wasn't as bad, although he bizarrely made All-Defense 2nd and received 0 DPOY votes of any kind, but he was still far from his statistical peak. This year his stats are right back up in the elite, as demonstrated above. Is it legit, or a flash in the pan?

He's finishing at the rim at a career high 81%, getting there on 38% of his attempts compared to last year's 28%, and getting free throw attempts on a career high 51% of his field goal attempts. His career averages are 72%, 35%, and 40% respectively. Maybe one of them could be real, but all three? Not legit.

He dabbled in threes at Kentucky but didn't start taking them in the NBA until year four. In years four and five he took 9% of his attempts from three and made 31% of them. This year so far he's bumped up his attempt rate a little to 13% (probably the Cousins factor) and is making 38%... but he's dipped from 42% on long twos to 30%. Guys don't get better at just one of these. A long jumper is a long jumper. The attempt rate increase is certainly sustainable, the percentage is probably not legit.

There are no other clear outliers in the positive or negative direction. He's making free throws about the same, rebounding about the same, passing about the same, defending about the same. My guess is both of the above come sharply down, which take his stats with them. Something happened to this guy between the 2015 and 2016 seasons, and I have no idea what. He's had a million injuries but none at that precise time. We'll probably never know.

[eric]

2:26 left in the game
Magic up 14 points on the Thunder
Thunder take a timeout
time to get the starters off the floor

LOL

NOPE

Carmelo, Westbrook, and Paul George stay on the court the entire rest of the way

Thunder lose by 13

Billy Donovan?
I knew Tom Thibodeau
I trolled Tom Thibodeau
Coach...
...you're no Tom Thibodeau

[eric]

I remember talking about this but can't find the post, anyway in 2016 we had Kawhi Leonard and Steph Curry threatening to hit .30+ ws/48 and ended up with just Steph, who also put up 30+ PER. Guys to put up that 30/30 mark over a full season:

1964 Wilt
1988 Jordan
1991 Jordan
2009 LeBron
2013 LeBron
2016 Steph

James Harden's current 2018 stats: .329 ws/48, 30.5 PER

How legit is this? Let's look at the other players and only look at the seasons before they hit the 30/30.

Wilt played 4 years, previous highs (individual seasons) of .286 and 31.8 (still the highest PER ever)
Jordan played 3 years, previous highs of .248 and 29.8
LeBron played 5 years, previous highs of .242 and 29.1
Steph played 6 years, previous highs of .288 and 28.0

Harden has played 8 years, three in OKC and five in Houston, and that split in itself is incredible to me.
His previous high PER was last year's 27.4 on 34.2 USG.
His previous high WS/48 was 2015's .265.

For his career his PER-USG is league average at -5, so his current (and career high) USG of 35.7 would be expected to (barely) get him there, and he's got comparatively a lot more wiggle room in WS/48 which is the stat that's much more forgiving of a predictor as we see above. We also know that Chris Paul (who put up .292 / 30.0 in 2009 btw) has missed half the season so far which should push the Rockets wins (and thus Win Shares) even higher, but we also expect him to take the ball out of Harden's hands which should (but doesn't necessarily have to) deflate his USG and therefore PER, and unlike Win Shares there's no factor in PER for your team being better.

I don't think he'll get there. But the Rockets are a great story right now, and a fascinating case study re: team building versus the Thunder, so let's give 'em some love. Nice job, James.

[eric]

Lonzo Ball's Scoring is a Problem

Lonzo Ball is currently shooting 26% from three, 33% from the field, and 49% from the line. These would be pretty decent AVG/OBP/SLG numbers (Lonzo to LAD?) (Long Baller Brand?) but they add up to a historically terrible 39.4% true shooting percentage in basketball. In the past fifty years, only three players have played 1000 MP and not broken 40 TS%:

Nikoloz Tskitishvili had a quite respectable 74% free throw percentage for a 7 footer, but posted an unconscionable 29% from the field and 24% from three. He played out his rookie deal and incredibly got a minimum signing with the Timberwolves before being traded for a pick that would become Loukas Mavrokefalidis, because Tskitishvili wasn't hard enough to spell already, am I right folks? He had 99 minutes and another NBA contract wasn't one, and he went back to Europe where he was somehow an incredibly efficient scorer, routinely knocking out 60+ TS% seasons. The Nuggets learned their lesson and never again drafted an inefficient volume shooter whoops they drafted Carmelo literally the year after drafting Niko.

Paul Pressey was a fantastic glue guy for the great 80s Bucks teams of Sid Moncrief and Terry Cummings, sort of the ideal version of what everyone in Indiana thought Lance Stephenson was going to be. Unfortunately his son Phil Pressey is the one who matches this criteria, putting up robust splits of 31/26/64.
He was so bad Brad Stevens spent two years on him and couldn't save him.
He was so bad the 10-62 2016 Philadelphia 76ers waived him.
He was so bad he spent a year with the Spurs DG-League affiliate and still couldn't get an NBA contract.
He was so bad he signed with FC Barcelona But For Basketball Yes The Whole Thing Yes Every Time and is coming off the bench in a league being dominated by the likes of Gary Neal and Tornike Shengelia, and no surprise considering he's putting up the brisk line of 38/26/61.

Rashad Vaughn is the current best case scenario. After a gross start of 31/29/80, he pumped his numbers to 45 TS% in year two and in the present day year three is up to 58% on 35 true shot attempts. Fun fact about Vaughn, his .032 free throw rate (FTA/FGA) last year is the fourth lowest all time (min. 100 FGA), trailing only 1996 Brad Lohaus .029, 2012 Mike Miller .024, and 2004 Brandon Armstrong .023. So he's got that going for him.

.

The point I'm making is this. Lots of rookies are bad at lots of things. Lonzo Ball's scoring isn't just run of the mill bad, it's so bad that it's unprecedented for a scorer of that caliber to even be in the league down the line, let alone get good down the line. We all know the names of successful point guards who were bad scorers when they started out, but again, there's bad and then there's bad. Here's a list for frame of reference.

TS% name
57 Isaiah
57 Curry
57 Irving
56 Arenas
55 Paul
54 Nash
53 Lowry
49 Westbrook
48 Rubio
47 Rondo
47 Kidd
39 Ball
Put another way, Lonzo Ball is as far behind Jason Kidd as Jason Kidd was behind Chris Paul.
Put another way, Lonzo Ball is as far behind Ricky Rubio as Ricky Rubio was behind Steph Curry.

Think of the gap between Curry and Rubio in scoring efficiency.

Now double it.

That's Lonzo Ball right now.

Good luck with that.

[TimPig]

Dec 13, 2017 11:35:35 GMT -6 eric said:

Lonzo Ball's Scoring is a Problem

Lonzo Ball is currently shooting 26% from three, 33% from the field, and 49% from the line. These would be pretty decent AVG/OBP/SLG numbers (Lonzo to LAD?) (Long Baller Brand?) but they add up to a historically terrible 39.4% true shooting percentage in basketball. In the past fifty years, only three players have played 1000 MP and not broken 40 TS%:

Nikoloz Tskitishvili had a quite respectable 74% free throw percentage for a 7 footer, but posted an unconscionable 29% from the field and 24% from three. He played out his rookie deal and incredibly got a minimum signing with the Timberwolves before being traded for a pick that would become Loukas Mavrokefalidis, because Tskitishvili wasn't hard enough to spell already, am I right folks? He had 99 minutes and another NBA contract wasn't one, and he went back to Europe where he was somehow an incredibly efficient scorer, routinely knocking out 60+ TS% seasons. The Nuggets learned their lesson and never again drafted an inefficient volume shooter whoops they drafted Carmelo literally the year after drafting Niko.

Paul Pressey was a fantastic glue guy for the great 80s Bucks teams of Sid Moncrief and Terry Cummings, sort of the ideal version of what everyone in Indiana thought Lance Stephenson was going to be. Unfortunately his son Phil Pressey is the one who matches this criteria, putting up robust splits of 31/26/64.
He was so bad Brad Stevens spent two years on him and couldn't save him.
He was so bad the 10-62 2016 Philadelphia 76ers waived him.
He was so bad he spent a year with the Spurs DG-League affiliate and still couldn't get an NBA contract.
He was so bad he signed with FC Barcelona But For Basketball Yes The Whole Thing Yes Every Time and is coming off the bench in a league being dominated by the likes of Gary Neal and Tornike Shengelia, and no surprise considering he's putting up the brisk line of 38/26/61.

Rashad Vaughn is the current best case scenario. After a gross start of 31/29/80, he pumped his numbers to 45 TS% in year two and in the present day year three is up to 58% on 35 true shot attempts. Fun fact about Vaughn, his .032 free throw rate (FTA/FGA) last year is the fourth lowest all time (min. 100 FGA), trailing only 1996 Brad Lohaus .029, 2012 Mike Miller .024, and 2004 Brandon Armstrong .023. So he's got that going for him.

.

The point I'm making is this. Lots of rookies are bad at lots of things. Lonzo Ball's scoring isn't just run of the mill bad, it's so bad that it's unprecedented for a scorer of that caliber to even be in the league down the line, let alone get good down the line. We all know the names of successful point guards who were bad scorers when they started out, but again, there's bad and then there's bad. Here's a list for frame of reference.

TS% name
57 Isaiah
57 Curry
57 Irving
56 Arenas
55 Paul
54 Nash
53 Lowry
49 Westbrook
48 Rubio
47 Rondo
47 Kidd
39 Ball
Put another way, Lonzo Ball is as far behind Jason Kidd as Jason Kidd was behind Chris Paul.
Put another way, Lonzo Ball is as far behind Ricky Rubio as Ricky Rubio was behind Steph Curry.

Think of the gap between Curry and Rubio in scoring efficiency.

Now double it.

That's Lonzo Ball right now.

Good luck with that.

I actually understood this one. Thanks.

[eric]

Let's Pick Eastern Conference All-Stars

or

Is Victor Oladipo an All-Star?
How About Ben Simmons?

So there's a whole thing with captains picking teams now, but the pools are the same. Three frontcourt starters, two backcourt starters, seven other reserves, and who knows what positions the NBA will arbitrarily assign players.

Here are the top East players by Win Shares and my estimated positions for them:

FC LeBron James
FC Giannis Antetokounmpo
BC Kyrie Irving
FC Al Horford frontcourt starters exhausted
BC DeMar DeRozan (crazy how taking three pointers turns out to actually be good for guards, who knew, huh) all starters exhausted

FC Andre Drummond
FC Kevin Love
FC Jayson Tatum
BC Kyle Lowry
FC Otto Porter
BC Kemba Walker
FC Tobias Harris

That's it! That's the team. We're a little heavy on frontcourt players, let's look at just guards (again, as I guess the NBA will reckon them) from here on out.

Victor Oladipo
Bradley Beal
Darren Collison
Courtney Lee
Spencer Dinwiddie
JJ Redick
Ben Simmons
Reggie Jackson

In conclusion: Oladipo, pretty close! Ben Simmons... been pretty far away, and ain't been looking like he gonna get closer. Like Magic and LeBron before him he's actually a forward, of course, but that doesn't help his case anyway.

You may ask yourself, well, how can Ben Simmons be so low given that he's obviously awesome and stats are for stupid nerds in their moms' basements?

I'll tell you.

Shooting 50% from the field is great.
Shooting 50% from the line is not great.
8 assists per game is great.
4 turnovers per game is not great.
The 76ers are not great and don't have any really terrible players now that Markelle isn't Fultzing around shooting with the wrong hand out there

so they probably don't have any great players. Hey! Listen! LeBron wasn't great his first year and the Cavs finished with 35 wins. Baby steps down the hall. Baby steps in the low post. Baby steps up to the Philadelphia Museum of Art.

Marcus Smart Probably Still Is Bad At Offense

[eric]

Awhile ago I devised a simple formula to tell how much of a player's 3P% was due to skill and how much was due to being assisted. I decided to apply that formula to all players to attempt at least 100 threes since 2001 (the first year %assisted is available on basketball-reference) and see what's what. An easy way to think of this is:

If a player is assisted on 0% of their threes, their skill 3P% is the same as their actual 3P%.
If a player is assisted on 100% of their threes, their skill 3P% is six points lower.
Anywhere in between 0% and 100%, math happens and there's a correction between zero and six points.

I counted 141 players who made at least 37.5% and who played their entire careers from 2001 or later on. Of these 141, here are the top eight by skill 3P%:

s3P% 3P% %ast name
.400 .435 .609 Stephen Curry
.388 .432 .755 Seth Curry
.377 .434 .961 Jason Kapono
.374 .432 .964 Kyle Korver
.373 .416 .742 C.J. McCollum
.372 .430 .972 Steve Novak
.365 .421 .938 Klay Thompson
.362 .408 .793 Buddy Hield
While the top four all have 3P%s separated by only tenths of a percent, Steph's dramatically lower % of threes assisted indicates that his skill 3P% level is dramatically higher. We also see that accounting for guys like MAXver being almost exclusively spot-up guys doesn't change the fact that they are extremely skilled shooters. And we finally see that maybe Vivek was onto something about Buddy Hield after all, so long as you don't care about passing or finishing at the rim or steals or a midrange game.

We can also look at the great 3P% players of yesteryear and see that they would fall in this range: even if your Steve Kerrs (45%) and your Hubert Davises (44%) took the full six point penalty (and they'd probably be pretty close), they'd still be in the high 30s. To have a chance of challenging Steph you'd need at least 40% actual from three and an even lower rate of threes assisted, and as it happens there's a guy who fits that bill very well indeed: Steve Nash. Ol' Two-Time shot 42.8% on his career and for the period of 01-present shot 43.2% while being assisted on a microscopic 49.4% of his threes, which works out to .404 skill 3P%. If he was assisted at the same rate for his entire career, the value would be .40045 against Curry's .40048, and if Steph goes 0 for 1 tomorrow they'll probably flip flop.

Bottom line Steph and Steve are pretty clearly the best shooters of all time given their ability to create and make shots at such a high percentage.

How do some of the other great shooters stack up? Not... too terribly well.

Ray Allen like draft mate Nash spent four years pre-01 but the bulk of his career puts him at an 85% assisted rate, good for .354 skill 3P%. This isn't a terrible number, only 22 players who played their entire careers 01-present currently have it, but it's way behind Steph.

Reggie Miller only played a few years after 01 but put up an even higher 91% assisted rate, which combined with his even lower 37% career 3P% adds up to .320 skill 3P%. You don't need a protractor to know that's quite bad.

But it could be worse! Kobe Bryant was in the same class as Nash and Allen, and with a 33% career mark and 66% assisted he works out to .292 skill 3P%.

.

So we know the largest rates of threes assisted are very close to 100%, although the only guy I could find who was exactly 100% was Mike Muscala. But how low can they go?

u3P% 3P% %ast name
.345 .372 .482 Chris Paul
.317 .344 .485 LeBron James
.340 .368 .511 Damian Lillard
.354 .384 .546 Kyrie Irving
.336 .366 .546 James Harden
.315 .346 .564 Brandon Jennings
.322 .354 .569 J.J. Barea
.330 .363 .587 Jrue Holiday
.298 .331 .595 Eric Bledsoe
.317 .350 .597 Kemba Walker
It's pretty remarkable that none of these players have elite shooting skill numbers. Kyrie's is the best and he's only 17th in the sample by goal alphabet difference over the Red Mamba. At the same time, three of the top five are voluminous assisters themselves so it's hard to say they should pass even more than eight dimes a game. (Lillard needs to recalibrate, for sure.) Looking at these numbers also implodes a lot of our ideas about some guys' playstyles. When we think Jamal Crawford we think shooting off the dribble, but actually 75% of his makes are assisted, middle of the pack.

.

Anyway, the purpose of this exercise was to see how good Curry, Klay, and Durant were. We saw the first two above, Durant comes in at 38% [] 75% = 34%, not shabby but not on their level. Here are the 141 I mentioned above and some others I thought were interesting to look up. Have fun with it!

SPOILER: Click to show

u3P% 3P% %ast name
0.331 0.378 0.808 A.J. Guyton
0.333 0.371 0.665 Aaron Brooks
0.318 0.363 0.777 Alec Burks
0.318 0.376 0.976 Alex Abrines
0.357 0.414 0.958 Allan Ray
0.348 0.405 0.959 Allen Crabbe
0.287 0.335 0.83 Andre Iguodala
0.361 0.417 0.949 Anthony Morrow
0.329 0.385 0.946 Arron Afflalo
0.310 0.354 0.768 Austin Rivers
0.317 0.37 0.901 Avery Bradley
0.360 0.401 0.708 Ben Gordon
0.295 0.35 0.924 Ben McLemore
0.340 0.396 0.939 Bobby Simmons
0.320 0.375 0.932 Bojan Bogdanovic
0.345 0.395 0.855 Bradley Beal
0.315 0.346 0.564 Brandon Jennings
0.317 0.357 0.707 Brandon Knight
0.299 0.348 0.845 Brandon Roy
0.345 0.402 0.952 Brandon Rush
0.324 0.382 0.977 Brian Cook
0.362 0.408 0.793 Buddy Hield
0.373 0.416 0.742 C.J. McCollum
0.306 0.361 0.93 C.J. Miles
0.325 0.373 0.824 C.J. Watson
0.300 0.346 0.792 Carmelo Anthony
0.301 0.348 0.818 Caron Butler
0.323 0.377 0.914 Chandler Parsons
0.329 0.388 0.981 Channing Frye
0.345 0.372 0.482 Chris Paul
0.332 0.377 0.776 Chris Quinn
0.332 0.389 0.952 Courtney Lee
0.332 0.373 0.715 D.J. Augustin
0.340 0.368 0.511 Damian Lillard
0.355 0.407 0.888 Daniel Gibson
0.314 0.367 0.903 Danilo Gallinari
0.324 0.38 0.937 Danny Granger
0.342 0.398 0.943 Danny Green
0.342 0.398 0.94 Darius Miller
0.337 0.381 0.759 Darren Collison
0.333 0.391 0.967 Davis Bertans
0.322 0.372 0.851 Delonte West
0.292 0.33 0.677 Dennis Schröder
0.319 0.357 0.668 Deron Williams
0.317 0.36 0.75 Devin Booker
0.293 0.341 0.826 Dion Waiters
0.340 0.394 0.92 Doron Lamb
0.336 0.395 0.983 Doug McDermott
0.275 0.333 0.974 Draymond Green
0.338 0.39 0.887 Eddie House
0.298 0.331 0.595 Eric Bledsoe
0.325 0.376 0.863 Eric Gordon
0.328 0.383 0.925 E'Twaun Moore
0.333 0.383 0.855 Evan Fournier
0.300 0.353 0.899 Fred Jones
0.306 0.362 0.945 Gary Harris
0.342 0.382 0.707 Gary Neal
0.337 0.382 0.78 George Hill
0.310 0.361 0.868 Gerald Green
0.315 0.351 0.649 Gilbert Arenas
0.317 0.376 0.985 Glenn Robinson
0.327 0.364 0.659 Goran Dragic
0.311 0.368 0.962 Gordan Giricek
0.318 0.368 0.851 Gordon Hayward
0.336 0.384 0.827 Hedo Turkoglu
0.328 0.386 0.97 Hollis Thompson
0.314 0.353 0.694 Isaiah Canaan
0.331 0.367 0.635 Isaiah Thomas
0.322 0.354 0.569 J.J. Barea
0.360 0.414 0.909 J.J. Redick
0.323 0.373 0.862 J.R. Smith
0.306 0.349 0.753 Jamal Crawford
0.333 0.37 0.649 Jameer Nelson
0.336 0.366 0.546 James Harden
0.343 0.401 0.974 James Jones
0.312 0.356 0.773 Jannero Pargo
0.337 0.397 0.996 Jared Dudley
0.299 0.345 0.797 Jarrett Jack
0.377 0.434 0.961 Jason Kapono
0.319 0.37 0.877 Jason Richardson
0.322 0.358 0.644 Jeff Teague
0.308 0.35 0.741 Jeremy Lin
0.346 0.381 0.617 Jimmer Fredette
0.290 0.338 0.824 Jimmy Butler
0.319 0.375 0.947 Joe Harris
0.360 0.41 0.853 Joe Ingles
0.323 0.373 0.856 Joe Johnson
0.270 0.327 0.962 Joel Embiid
0.316 0.366 0.861 John Salmons
0.332 0.374 0.731 Jordan Farmar
0.360 0.41 0.856 Jose Calderon
0.310 0.367 0.953 Josh Richardson
0.330 0.363 0.587 Jrue Holiday
0.334 0.393 0.982 Juan Hernangomez
0.336 0.388 0.881 Kawhi Leonard
0.352 0.409 0.957 Kelenna Azubuike
0.317 0.35 0.597 Kemba Walker
0.319 0.37 0.867 Kendall Marshall
0.303 0.353 0.86 Kent Bazemore
0.338 0.381 0.754 Kevin Durant
0.333 0.384 0.87 Kevin Martin
0.346 0.401 0.923 Khris Middleton
0.326 0.375 0.84 Kirk Hinrich
0.365 0.421 0.938 Klay Thompson
0.374 0.432 0.964 Kyle Korver
0.330 0.366 0.633 Kyle Lowry
0.354 0.384 0.546 Kyrie Irving
0.341 0.398 0.95 Lance Thomas
0.336 0.387 0.865 Leandro Barbosa
0.317 0.344 0.485 LeBron James
0.312 0.348 0.638 Lou Williams
0.353 0.411 0.976 Luke Babbitt
0.343 0.388 0.776 Luther Head
0.353 0.402 0.832 Malcolm Brogdon
0.322 0.369 0.804 Manu Ginobili
0.325 0.377 0.878 Marco Belinelli
0.309 0.358 0.841 Marcus Thornton
0.303 0.353 0.862 Mario Chalmers
0.326 0.382 0.948 Martell Webster
0.354 0.414 0.995 Matt Bonner
0.325 0.384 0.98 Matt Carroll
0.338 0.389 0.863 Matthew Dellavedova
0.317 0.375 0.965 Mehmet Okur
0.328 0.38 0.884 Michael Redd
0.333 0.377 0.772 Mike Conley
0.320 0.377 0.959 Mike Dunleavy
0.333 0.379 0.798 Mike James
0.353 0.407 0.914 Mike Miller
0.318 0.378 0.9999 Mike Muscala
0.342 0.396 0.909 Mike Penberthy
0.313 0.371 0.967 Mirza Teletovic
0.335 0.378 0.75 Mo Williams
0.317 0.36 0.745 Nate Robinson
0.327 0.377 0.854 Nick Young
0.302 0.355 0.894 Nicolas Batum
0.324 0.373 0.844 O.J. Mayo
0.339 0.396 0.955 Otto Porter
0.344 0.379 0.616 Pablo Prigioni
0.345 0.402 0.962 Pat Connaughton
0.324 0.376 0.888 Patrick Beverley
0.346 0.393 0.812 Patty Mills
0.327 0.373 0.796 Paul George
0.309 0.355 0.803 Rafer Alston
0.349 0.406 0.961 Raja Bell
0.331 0.388 0.953 Rashard Lewis
0.307 0.362 0.924 Rasual Butler
0.343 0.391 0.821 Raul Neto
0.283 0.327 0.77 Ray Felton
0.319 0.376 0.952 Richard Jefferson
0.329 0.372 0.757 Rodney Hood
0.336 0.383 0.81 Roger Mason
0.298 0.345 0.819 Rudy Gay
0.325 0.383 0.966 Ryan Anderson
0.320 0.378 0.969 Scott Padgett
0.388 0.432 0.755 Seth Curry
0.326 0.384 0.971 Shane Battier
0.400 0.435 0.609 Stephen Curry
0.284 0.333 0.838 Stephen Jackson
0.332 0.383 0.865 Steve Blake
0.372 0.43 0.972 Steve Novak
0.322 0.378 0.937 Taurean Waller-Prince
0.313 0.354 0.718 Toney Douglas
0.324 0.382 0.976 Tony Snell
0.357 0.408 0.869 Troy Daniels
0.329 0.388 0.989 Troy Murphy
0.316 0.359 0.748 Ty Lawson
0.321 0.378 0.955 Vladimir Radmanovic
0.323 0.381 0.974 Walter Herrmann
0.330 0.385 0.929 Wang Zhizhi
0.332 0.382 0.852 Wayne Ellington
0.332 0.385 0.901 Wesley Matthews
0.294 0.338 0.768 Will Barton
0.349 0.383 0.606 Yogi Ferrell
0.333 0.378 0.773 Zach LaVine

[eric]

Andrew Wiggins passed 10,000 career minutes last night, and is currently averaging 20 points per game on his career while having less assists than turnovers. This puts him in pretty good company:

John Drew (two time All Star for the fair to middling pre-Nique Hawks)
Moses Malone
Hakeem Olajuwon
Patrick Ewing
Shaquille O'Neal
Glenn B. D. Robinson
DeMarcus Cousins

Not bad! Pretty good! Everybody has at least two All-Stars, all the centers have at least two All-NBAs and aside from Boogie at least seven. But, of course, Wiggins isn't a center.

...or is he?

He draws fouls as well as Olajuwon or my close personal friend Patrick.
He shoots the long ball (almost) as well as Boogie.
He passes pretty much like Shaq.

Now he can't rebound.
Not even close.
Not even a little bit.
Not even at all.

But throughout his career his team has been very slightly better rebounding the ball with him on the court.

A guard who can't shoot or pass isn't a championship player. They just don't happen. But there have been plenty of championship bigs who can't shoot or pass. What if Wiggins has just been playing out of position this whole time? He is 6'8", after all.

.

Chris Bosh could shoot the lights out for a big fella. He has also become the go-to comp for the guy in a superteam who has to sacrifice the most. Last night Carmelo Anthony scored 4 points and Paul George scored 8 as the Thunder barely beat a middling Nuggets squad at home. It's only the second time in his career that Carmelo scored that few and the 19th for George in games they played at least 30 minutes. In other words, Carmelo has scored more in 99% of the games he's played and George 95% of the time.

Let's look at the season as a whole. Carmelo had the ball in his hands about 26% of the time in Denver, 30% of the time in New York, and so far 16% of the time as a Thunderer. PG hasn't suffered as steep a drop but has still gone from 26% to 21%. These both look a lot like Bosh's 21% to 13% as a Heatle. Here are Westbrook's figures:
2015 - 58%
2016 - 58%
2017 - 66%
2018 - 58%

Which one of Carmelo and George are the Chris Bosh? Neither. The appropriate comp is to the catastrophic 2013 Lakers, who worked Steve Nash and Dwight Howard into the offense by letting Kobe still take every shot. They went on to win 0 playoff games, let Dwight walk for nothing, let Pau walk for nothing, let Steve walk for nothing, and have yet to make it back to the playoffs.

But hey, you gotta let Russ be Russ.

[eric]

We're all very excited about Ben Simmons. Some of us are getting carried away: "[Simmons is] a top-15 or 20 player already."

Let's take a breath.

Simmons is scoring 17 a game on 51% from the field, 9 boards and 8 dimes a game, putting up bleals like a young sim Sam Jones. All of this is good! But there are a lot of red flags too. Out of 64 players currently scoring 15 a game this season, Simmons is 57th in true shooting percentage, a measure that takes into accounts three point and free throw shooting. The current top and bottom three: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Steph Curry ... Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, Andrew Wiggins. Looks like a pretty solid metric to me.

"But wait!" you may cry, "LeBron only put up 49 TS% his rookie year!" Fact! Absolutely fact.

But here's the thing. LeBron took 3s on 15% of his attempts and made 29% of them as a rookie, and hit 75% from the line; as previously demonstrated, this gave him a 49% shot at ever becoming a decent three point shooter. By comparison, Simmons is on track to go 0 for 24 on the season from downtown - as also previously demonstrated, only 9% of players who don't make a single three their rookie season go on to do so. Not good odds.

There's also his brisk 54% free throw percentage to consider. What are his odds at improving that? Well, in NBA history there have only been four rookies to score 15+ per game and not hit 60% or better from the line, so the sample size is kinda small, so let's go one by one.

Wilt Chamberlain put up 38 a game and 58% from the line. He was actually reasonably competent from the line to start his career, over his first four years he maintained that 58% number... then for the rest of his career he hit 47%.


Shaquille O'Neal put up 23 a game and 59% from the line. He dropped off immediately but not as dramatically, making 52% the rest of his career. Like Wilt, he managed exactly one season (narrowly) above 60%. Thirty-three combined seasons, two above 60%.


Elmore Smith averaged an astonishing 17 points 15 boards as a rookie Brave in 1972, losing out in a crowded ROY race also involving Austin Carr to Sidney Wicks. Meanwhile the ABA Rookie of the Year race was between Artis Gilmore, Julius Erving, and George McGinnis.

Unlike the first two, the pride of Kentucky State University managed to improve on his rookie 53 FT%, finishing his career at 58% with three years over 60%. Also unlike the first two, he never made an All-Star or All-NBA team and sits at a cool 0.0% Hall of Fame probability per basketball-reference.


Chris Webber put up 18 a game and 53% from the line, and over his first six seasons averaged 54%. In the new millennium, however, Webber turned over a new leaf and remembered how many timeouts there were hit an astonishing 75% from the line, averaging 71% over the last nine years of his career. Aside from a nine game brickfest in his last season, he never hit below 60%.

So there is hope, sort of. For whatever it's worth, Webber is a power forward same as Simmons while the other three were pure centers, and his explanation for the improvement is "practice", so it's conceivable.

At the same time, Simmons (like Lonzo) doesn't need to improve just one of these, he needs both to become an above average scorer. Not even an elite scorer! Just above average! And it's hard to picture either of them reaching the lofty hype (mostly forgotten in Ball's case) without being at least an above average scorer.