What's Wrong with the Thunder?
Jan 26, 2015 16:05:18 GMT -6
ANK1990, Heynong Man, and 4 more like this
Post by eric on Jan 26, 2015 16:05:18 GMT -6
(Cross-posted from a distant land on the advice of a friend of ours.)
The Thunder are .500, 10th in the West, 5 games out of the playoffs.
"They've had injuries!" but even with Durant and Westbrook in the lineup they are only 14-7, which prorates to 55 wins. This doesn't seem like that big a drop-off from the last three years (58 prorated, 60, 59), but 55 wins would only be good enough for the 2 seed, 6 seed, and 4 seed over those years. Little differences matter a lot when you're at the top. Little difference also matter a lot when you're at the bottom. A 55 win pace over the remaining 38 games gives 47 wins, a mere 1 game ahead of Phoenix' current pace so the slightest stumble/injury/suspension would leave OKC out of the playoffs. A 59 win pace gives 49 wins, significantly more breathing room.
Alright, so WHY are the Thunder not doing as well? All the same old problems. They've finally sent Perk to the bench, but he's actually playing pretty much the same minutes he did last year as a starter at 19.2 to 19.5. Durant's usage has gone down this year and Westbrook's has gone up; this is not to the Thunder's benefit. And the big one: after years of shrewdly giving away established players for draft picks, the Thunder are left with an absolutely pathetic supporting cast.
1. Roberson is a joke. He was spotted up at the elbow of the three point line last night. His defender (LeBron) was at the outermost box where players line up to rebound free throws, a distance of just over 10 feet. LeBron happens to be tall, long, high IQ, and explosively fast, so he can get away with helping more than most people, but still. You can't run offense that way. The team's ORtg only when Durant and Westbrook are on the court is a laughable 104.9, below average. Durant + Westbrook = below average. It should be impossible. It should be illegal.
2. Adams and Ibaka are both useful offensive finishers, but they are on track for 150 assists between them for the season and neither can create for themselves. There are only 10 starters in the league so allergic to passing, and OKC has two of them. Some of this could be because that between Durant and Westbrook the other Thunder touch the ball so infrequently they are severely disinclined to give it up once they do have it, but I think most of it is skill and lack of offensive strategy; that is, they are TOLD to only shoot it once they get it. Regardless, both are seeing slight declines compared to last year.
3. Already touched on Perk, but the rest of the bench is catastrophic outside of Morrow who has lived up to his reputation. Jackson has improved his passing somewhat but his scoring efficiency has plummeted. Collison is in full decline, has tried to ward it off by adding a three point shot, and has failed. Jeremy Lamb has again improved slightly year-over-year so of course he has been benched in favor of Dion Waiters, who has continued to be brutal: can't finish, can't draw fouls, can't hit a jump shot, can't pass, can't rebound, can't defend.
I wouldn't be surprised if OKC makes the playoffs. I would be very surprised if they win a single round, and I think the people breathlessly telling us how afraid the top seeds are or should be of the Thunder haven't been keeping up on current events.
For those keeping track at home, James Harden has now been traded for...
Steven Adams (not even a top 20 center in the NBA)
Jeremy Lamb (can't get minutes over Dion Waiters)
Alex Abrines (0 career MP), and
Szymon Szewczyk (0 career MP)
...ouch.
The Thunder are .500, 10th in the West, 5 games out of the playoffs.
"They've had injuries!" but even with Durant and Westbrook in the lineup they are only 14-7, which prorates to 55 wins. This doesn't seem like that big a drop-off from the last three years (58 prorated, 60, 59), but 55 wins would only be good enough for the 2 seed, 6 seed, and 4 seed over those years. Little differences matter a lot when you're at the top. Little difference also matter a lot when you're at the bottom. A 55 win pace over the remaining 38 games gives 47 wins, a mere 1 game ahead of Phoenix' current pace so the slightest stumble/injury/suspension would leave OKC out of the playoffs. A 59 win pace gives 49 wins, significantly more breathing room.
Alright, so WHY are the Thunder not doing as well? All the same old problems. They've finally sent Perk to the bench, but he's actually playing pretty much the same minutes he did last year as a starter at 19.2 to 19.5. Durant's usage has gone down this year and Westbrook's has gone up; this is not to the Thunder's benefit. And the big one: after years of shrewdly giving away established players for draft picks, the Thunder are left with an absolutely pathetic supporting cast.
1. Roberson is a joke. He was spotted up at the elbow of the three point line last night. His defender (LeBron) was at the outermost box where players line up to rebound free throws, a distance of just over 10 feet. LeBron happens to be tall, long, high IQ, and explosively fast, so he can get away with helping more than most people, but still. You can't run offense that way. The team's ORtg only when Durant and Westbrook are on the court is a laughable 104.9, below average. Durant + Westbrook = below average. It should be impossible. It should be illegal.
2. Adams and Ibaka are both useful offensive finishers, but they are on track for 150 assists between them for the season and neither can create for themselves. There are only 10 starters in the league so allergic to passing, and OKC has two of them. Some of this could be because that between Durant and Westbrook the other Thunder touch the ball so infrequently they are severely disinclined to give it up once they do have it, but I think most of it is skill and lack of offensive strategy; that is, they are TOLD to only shoot it once they get it. Regardless, both are seeing slight declines compared to last year.
3. Already touched on Perk, but the rest of the bench is catastrophic outside of Morrow who has lived up to his reputation. Jackson has improved his passing somewhat but his scoring efficiency has plummeted. Collison is in full decline, has tried to ward it off by adding a three point shot, and has failed. Jeremy Lamb has again improved slightly year-over-year so of course he has been benched in favor of Dion Waiters, who has continued to be brutal: can't finish, can't draw fouls, can't hit a jump shot, can't pass, can't rebound, can't defend.
I wouldn't be surprised if OKC makes the playoffs. I would be very surprised if they win a single round, and I think the people breathlessly telling us how afraid the top seeds are or should be of the Thunder haven't been keeping up on current events.
For those keeping track at home, James Harden has now been traded for...
Steven Adams (not even a top 20 center in the NBA)
Jeremy Lamb (can't get minutes over Dion Waiters)
Alex Abrines (0 career MP), and
Szymon Szewczyk (0 career MP)
...ouch.
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