Why the Cavs Resurgence Isn't Totally Great
Jan 27, 2015 12:17:54 GMT -6
Lazy Pete, 20s Navidad, and 1 more like this
Post by eric on Jan 27, 2015 12:17:54 GMT -6
I have charted nine Cavs games pre-LeBron having a nap and four since. The Cavs' half court efficiency has gone way up in the second period, from .826 points per possession to 1.064 and not surprisingly they've won all four games compared to going 5-4 over the front nine. Great. But if we peek under the hood, there are some fundamental issues. Quick definitions: when I say a player is fully involved, they finish the possession with a shot, free throw, turnover, assist, pass that led to free throws, or pass that would have been an assist if the recipient had made the shot. When I say a player is uninvolved, they never touched the ball in the half court or set a screen (on or off ball). When I say a player is halfway involved, that's every other type of possession. If a shot is offensive rebounded, the possession is over and a new one starts. There is no such thing as a Kobe assist.
1. LeBron is doing too much and he's past his prime. This combination has sapped his efficiency from the greatest of all time to top ten this season. It's a little nit picky to complain about being a top ten player, but the Cavs need to be focused on the long term. LeBron isn't going to get better from this point, only worse. The sooner he embraces that and embraces a reduced role (a la Tim Duncan) the better off the Cavs will be, especially since retaining Love is not guaranteed and everyone likes shooting more. (Ideally LeBron would also embrace a reduced contract a la Tim Duncan.) Before the break LeBron was fully involved in 45% of plays, halfway involved in 34%, and uninvolved in 22% while on the court. This was already a bad split; in his Miami days the numbers were 45/39/16. Since he's been back it's gotten worse to 49/29/22. He shouldn't be doing nothing, although he is a very good spot-up shooter and thus contributes even when he stands still in the corner, but the "LeBron run every play" strategy didn't work when he was in his prime, and it'll work even less now.
2. The fit is still a bit awkward, and it's easy to avoid it by mimicking the Thunder style "offense" of KD shoot, now Westbrook shoot, now KD shoot, etc., but they'll be much stronger if they put in the work to make it fit. Before the break, the Cavs generated .875/.767/.817 on LeBron's full/half/no touches, again, already a bad sign that the weakest area was with LeBron in complementary action. Since the break, they're at 1.123/.789/1.288. They've gotten better across the board but mostly in the areas they were already strong, exaggerating the disparity.
1. LeBron is doing too much and he's past his prime. This combination has sapped his efficiency from the greatest of all time to top ten this season. It's a little nit picky to complain about being a top ten player, but the Cavs need to be focused on the long term. LeBron isn't going to get better from this point, only worse. The sooner he embraces that and embraces a reduced role (a la Tim Duncan) the better off the Cavs will be, especially since retaining Love is not guaranteed and everyone likes shooting more. (Ideally LeBron would also embrace a reduced contract a la Tim Duncan.) Before the break LeBron was fully involved in 45% of plays, halfway involved in 34%, and uninvolved in 22% while on the court. This was already a bad split; in his Miami days the numbers were 45/39/16. Since he's been back it's gotten worse to 49/29/22. He shouldn't be doing nothing, although he is a very good spot-up shooter and thus contributes even when he stands still in the corner, but the "LeBron run every play" strategy didn't work when he was in his prime, and it'll work even less now.
2. The fit is still a bit awkward, and it's easy to avoid it by mimicking the Thunder style "offense" of KD shoot, now Westbrook shoot, now KD shoot, etc., but they'll be much stronger if they put in the work to make it fit. Before the break, the Cavs generated .875/.767/.817 on LeBron's full/half/no touches, again, already a bad sign that the weakest area was with LeBron in complementary action. Since the break, they're at 1.123/.789/1.288. They've gotten better across the board but mostly in the areas they were already strong, exaggerating the disparity.
