Post by eric on Jan 29, 2015 20:58:46 GMT -6
Every MVP to become eligible has made the Hall of Fame. The ones who are not yet eligible:
Shaquille O'Neal (lock)
Allen Iverson (lock)
Tim Duncan (lock)
Kevin Garnett (lock)
Steve Nash (probable)
Dirk Nowitzki (lock)
Kobe Bryant (probable)
LeBron James (lock)
Derrick Rose (probably not)
So besides Rose's sham MVP and Kobe's sham MVP notwithstanding, it's a fine indicator of future Hall of Fame induction at 29/30. What about the Finals MVP? Turns out not so much. 29 men have won it, of whom only 23 are either already in or a lock to be in the Hall of Fame. Also interesting is that unlike MVP, several players managed to win FMVP without first being named an All-Star.
Cedric Maxwell
1981 FMVP, zero time All-Star, zero All-NBA, never received a vote for MVP. FMVP should have gone to Larry (led Celtics in rebounds/assists/steals, second in scoring, had 1.11 WS to Maxwell's 1.01, led team with 27 points in the deciding game 6 including the only made three pointer of either team). These things happen.
Joe Dumars
1989 FMVP, went on to six All-Stars and three All-NBA including both the next year, got a handful of pity MVP votes here and there. Earned his FMVP (his 0.84 WS were almost as many as Isiah's and the Microwave's combined), in the Hall of Fame with slightly less obvious credentials.
Chauncey Billups
2004 FMVP, went on to five All-Stars and three All-NBA but needed to wait until 2006 for both, had a fifth-place finish and very strong case for 2006 MVP, should make the Hall and certainly has a better case than Dumars.
Kawhi Leonard
2015 FMVP, as of yet has neither All-Stars nor All-NBA. Almost certainly won't get All-NBA this year: six spots for forwards and Davis, Durant, LeBron, Blake, Pau, Aldridge, Millsap, Love, Duncan, Dirk, Draymond... good luck with that. The other really unusual thing about Kawhi is he's almost certainly not going to break 2000 MP this year: if he plays 32 per game in every one of the Spurs' remaining 35 that gives him 2039, but there's a 0% chance Pop is going to play him every single game from here on out because Pop. It's historically unprecedented for a player this good to not play 2000 MP in any of his first four seasons: 0 players have 24 WS over their first four seasons and <2000 MP in all four since MP records were first kept in 1952. An interesting case that comes really close is...
Sam Jones
FMVP was only awarded from 1969-present, but with 10 rings and as the first scoring option on 3 of them he'd almost certainly have gotten one along the way when people got bored of giving them to Russell. Only just barely cracked 2000 MP his fourth year with 21 cumulative WS, was drafted onto a dynasty team built around a defensive minded all-time great center, had modest box scores (11/5/2 his first for seasons compared to Kawhi's 11/6/2), didn't reach the All-Star team until his 5th season and All-NBA until his 8th... there's a lot of similarities that bode well considering Sam Jones is a Hall of Famer, but there's also a really important difference: Sam Jones was drafted 1 year after Bill Russell, Kawhi Leonard was drafted 14 years after Tim Duncan. My guess is Duncan retires, Kawhi turns out to be just a good player rather than a franchise type, never gets an All-Star or All-NBA, and joins Cornbread as a historical oddity.
Shaquille O'Neal (lock)
Allen Iverson (lock)
Tim Duncan (lock)
Kevin Garnett (lock)
Steve Nash (probable)
Dirk Nowitzki (lock)
Kobe Bryant (probable)
LeBron James (lock)
Derrick Rose (probably not)
So besides Rose's sham MVP and Kobe's sham MVP notwithstanding, it's a fine indicator of future Hall of Fame induction at 29/30. What about the Finals MVP? Turns out not so much. 29 men have won it, of whom only 23 are either already in or a lock to be in the Hall of Fame. Also interesting is that unlike MVP, several players managed to win FMVP without first being named an All-Star.
Cedric Maxwell
1981 FMVP, zero time All-Star, zero All-NBA, never received a vote for MVP. FMVP should have gone to Larry (led Celtics in rebounds/assists/steals, second in scoring, had 1.11 WS to Maxwell's 1.01, led team with 27 points in the deciding game 6 including the only made three pointer of either team). These things happen.
Joe Dumars
1989 FMVP, went on to six All-Stars and three All-NBA including both the next year, got a handful of pity MVP votes here and there. Earned his FMVP (his 0.84 WS were almost as many as Isiah's and the Microwave's combined), in the Hall of Fame with slightly less obvious credentials.
Chauncey Billups
2004 FMVP, went on to five All-Stars and three All-NBA but needed to wait until 2006 for both, had a fifth-place finish and very strong case for 2006 MVP, should make the Hall and certainly has a better case than Dumars.
Kawhi Leonard
2015 FMVP, as of yet has neither All-Stars nor All-NBA. Almost certainly won't get All-NBA this year: six spots for forwards and Davis, Durant, LeBron, Blake, Pau, Aldridge, Millsap, Love, Duncan, Dirk, Draymond... good luck with that. The other really unusual thing about Kawhi is he's almost certainly not going to break 2000 MP this year: if he plays 32 per game in every one of the Spurs' remaining 35 that gives him 2039, but there's a 0% chance Pop is going to play him every single game from here on out because Pop. It's historically unprecedented for a player this good to not play 2000 MP in any of his first four seasons: 0 players have 24 WS over their first four seasons and <2000 MP in all four since MP records were first kept in 1952. An interesting case that comes really close is...
Sam Jones
FMVP was only awarded from 1969-present, but with 10 rings and as the first scoring option on 3 of them he'd almost certainly have gotten one along the way when people got bored of giving them to Russell. Only just barely cracked 2000 MP his fourth year with 21 cumulative WS, was drafted onto a dynasty team built around a defensive minded all-time great center, had modest box scores (11/5/2 his first for seasons compared to Kawhi's 11/6/2), didn't reach the All-Star team until his 5th season and All-NBA until his 8th... there's a lot of similarities that bode well considering Sam Jones is a Hall of Famer, but there's also a really important difference: Sam Jones was drafted 1 year after Bill Russell, Kawhi Leonard was drafted 14 years after Tim Duncan. My guess is Duncan retires, Kawhi turns out to be just a good player rather than a franchise type, never gets an All-Star or All-NBA, and joins Cornbread as a historical oddity.
