For Whom Would Taj Gibson Start?
Feb 13, 2015 12:35:57 GMT -6
Bruns, 20s Navidad, and 1 more like this
Post by eric on Feb 13, 2015 12:35:57 GMT -6
Taj Gibson is probably the most interesting backup power forward in the NBA. In his first three years he was the quintessential "promising" player: made All-Rookie First Team his first year while starting under Vinny Del Negro, was relegated to the bench after the acquisition of Carlos Boozer the next year but enjoyed modest increases in composite and peripheral stats, enjoyed a break-out year in 2012 that saw him receive his first Sixth Man of the Year votes (including a [HASH]1) and many breathless predictions of being the next Chicago star / All-Star / superstar...
...but 2012 proved to be the high water mark for Taj on the court. A huge spike in usage dragged his stats up high enough to make a serious run at SMOY last year, but his efficiency suffered for it, and his on-off has declined every year since 2012. It is easy to link this to the absence of Derrick Rose, but (1) as a bench player Taj would only play limited minutes with Rose anyway (40% this year) and (2) Rose isn't that good. Nevertheless, it has recently become trendy to declare that Taj Gibson could start for many/most/every team in the league, with Reggie Miller last night putting the number at 25 teams, and I thought it would be interesting to go down the list and see just who those teams might be.
First we have to learn who Taj is. He is listed at 6'9" 225 lbs, which passes the eye test, and which also removes any serious consideration of playing center. He does not take 3s, he doesn't even really take long 2s any more: after taking 25% of his shots from the 16-23 foot range in 2011, he is down to 7% this year and mercifully so as he never cracked 40% FG% from that zone, a Kobe-esque percentage. He's really miserable (<40%) everywhere outside of 3 feet, within which he shoots a good but not amazing for a big man 62%. For some reason his fans believe him to be a capable jump shooter from the mid baseline, but there is no evidence of this. Like most big men he is a miserable passer, for his career he has .73 assists to the turnover. Put the shooting and passing together and there can't be any serious consideration of him playing small forward either. The only role he can really play is traditional four man: defense, rebounds, banging inside... but he's actually not a very good rebounder. After an excellent for a rookie 15.4%, his TRB% has gone down every year to his current 12.8%, which is still in big man territory but only just.
So with that in mind, any team that starts a stretch 4 is an absolute non-match for Gibson. By my count this rules out Warriors, Rockets, Mavericks, Suns, Thunder, Hawks, Cavaliers, Heat, Bucks, Nets. Ignoring the teams who are trying to lose (Knicks, 76ers, Magic, Celtics, Timberwolves, Lakers, Kings, Jazz, Nuggets) that leaves 11 teams to look at starting bigs in more detail.
Grizzlies: Randolph and Gasol. No.
Trail Blazers: Aldridge and whoever's healthy. Aldridge could slide to center and has in the past, but doesn't like doing so. Maybe.
Clippers: Blake and DeAndre. No.
Spurs: Duncan and Splitter. No.
Pelicans: Davis and Asik. Davis is a super freak athlete but he gets pushed around even at PF, and the 'Cans specifically brought in a center at the cost of a first round draft pick. Probably not.
Raptors: Amir and Jonas. Amir seems like and is an almost identical player to Gibson but is slightly better across the board. Probably not.
Bulls: No by definition.
Wizards: Nene and Gortat. No, unless you want to count Nene always being injured as Gibson starting.
Hornets: Big Al and Cody Zeller. Like the Spurs and Bulls, the Hornets start a two-center look. Unlike those teams, Gibson is probably better than Zeller, but so are other PF options the Hornets currently have and they aren't starting. Probably not.
Pistons: Monroe and Drummond. No.
Pacers: West and Hibbert. No.
Thus Taj Gibson teaches us two lessons for the millionth time. "Potential" is French for "hasn't done s*** yet", and fit can and usually does trump talent. No matter how good Gibson looks and is on the Bulls bench, he would probably not start for any NBA team trying to win basketball games.
...but 2012 proved to be the high water mark for Taj on the court. A huge spike in usage dragged his stats up high enough to make a serious run at SMOY last year, but his efficiency suffered for it, and his on-off has declined every year since 2012. It is easy to link this to the absence of Derrick Rose, but (1) as a bench player Taj would only play limited minutes with Rose anyway (40% this year) and (2) Rose isn't that good. Nevertheless, it has recently become trendy to declare that Taj Gibson could start for many/most/every team in the league, with Reggie Miller last night putting the number at 25 teams, and I thought it would be interesting to go down the list and see just who those teams might be.
First we have to learn who Taj is. He is listed at 6'9" 225 lbs, which passes the eye test, and which also removes any serious consideration of playing center. He does not take 3s, he doesn't even really take long 2s any more: after taking 25% of his shots from the 16-23 foot range in 2011, he is down to 7% this year and mercifully so as he never cracked 40% FG% from that zone, a Kobe-esque percentage. He's really miserable (<40%) everywhere outside of 3 feet, within which he shoots a good but not amazing for a big man 62%. For some reason his fans believe him to be a capable jump shooter from the mid baseline, but there is no evidence of this. Like most big men he is a miserable passer, for his career he has .73 assists to the turnover. Put the shooting and passing together and there can't be any serious consideration of him playing small forward either. The only role he can really play is traditional four man: defense, rebounds, banging inside... but he's actually not a very good rebounder. After an excellent for a rookie 15.4%, his TRB% has gone down every year to his current 12.8%, which is still in big man territory but only just.
So with that in mind, any team that starts a stretch 4 is an absolute non-match for Gibson. By my count this rules out Warriors, Rockets, Mavericks, Suns, Thunder, Hawks, Cavaliers, Heat, Bucks, Nets. Ignoring the teams who are trying to lose (Knicks, 76ers, Magic, Celtics, Timberwolves, Lakers, Kings, Jazz, Nuggets) that leaves 11 teams to look at starting bigs in more detail.
Grizzlies: Randolph and Gasol. No.
Trail Blazers: Aldridge and whoever's healthy. Aldridge could slide to center and has in the past, but doesn't like doing so. Maybe.
Clippers: Blake and DeAndre. No.
Spurs: Duncan and Splitter. No.
Pelicans: Davis and Asik. Davis is a super freak athlete but he gets pushed around even at PF, and the 'Cans specifically brought in a center at the cost of a first round draft pick. Probably not.
Raptors: Amir and Jonas. Amir seems like and is an almost identical player to Gibson but is slightly better across the board. Probably not.
Bulls: No by definition.
Wizards: Nene and Gortat. No, unless you want to count Nene always being injured as Gibson starting.
Hornets: Big Al and Cody Zeller. Like the Spurs and Bulls, the Hornets start a two-center look. Unlike those teams, Gibson is probably better than Zeller, but so are other PF options the Hornets currently have and they aren't starting. Probably not.
Pistons: Monroe and Drummond. No.
Pacers: West and Hibbert. No.
Thus Taj Gibson teaches us two lessons for the millionth time. "Potential" is French for "hasn't done s*** yet", and fit can and usually does trump talent. No matter how good Gibson looks and is on the Bulls bench, he would probably not start for any NBA team trying to win basketball games.
