Post by eric on Mar 1, 2015 17:43:01 GMT -6
A lot of people have criticized the Cavaliers for the trade of Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love, and the criticism grew as Love fit out and Wiggins jumped really high:
The Next Pippen!
The Next LeBron!!
Better Than LeBron and Michael??
Let's all pump the brakes on Andrew Wiggins.
He Can't Pass
In 35 college games he put up 54 assists to 80(!!!) turnovers. Those are bad numbers for a center. (Andrew Wiggins is a small forward.) He has technically gotten better in the NBA with 109 assists to only 116 turnovers over 58 games, but these are still very bad numbers for a perimeter player, let alone a superstar perimeter player. In NBA history there have only been 15 perimeter players to play 2000+ minutes their first year and average 2 assists a game or less: none of them ever broke 5 assists per game. Two of those players turned out to be pretty good anyway (Adrian Dantley and Dominique Wilkins) although of course neither have rings. The other 13 put together combined for 1 All-NBA team: Lou Hudson's 2nd team in 1970. The track record isn't good for perimeter guys who can't pass, both in terms of learning how to pass and in terms of being good at basketball.
He Can't Shoot
He shot 34% from the shorter college line, and is currently shooting 35% from the NBA line. 35% isn't terrible, but he's also shooting 33% from 16-23 feet and he takes way more shots from there. He generates .791 points on long jumpers, a frankly brutal number. Even noted butchers Derrick Rose (.868), Rajon Rondo (.795), Kobe Bryant (.892), and Russell Westbrook (.838) shoot better on their careers. It's fair to point out that these men have gotten better since their rookie years, but not much: .840 .578 .849 .779 respectively, only Rondo showed > 10% improvement, and it's gonna take way more than that for Wiggins to be even an average shooter.
He's an Average Rebounder
He's currently getting 7% of available rebounds while he's on the court. That puts him at 166th of 244 players who have played enough minutes to qualify for NBA leaderboards, right about where we would expect a shooting guard to be. There are only a few point guards ahead of him, he's ahead of a few small forwards. There's nothing wrong with being average, but if you're not plus in any category it's pretty much impossible for you to be a superstar. I haven't done a lot of research on this subject, but you can also find plenty of guys who upped their TRB% after their rookie years, so this isn't as big of a concern... yet.
He's Not That Good at Defense
This has been the most pervasive element of the Wiggins mythology, as it so often is, because defensive measurements are way harder than offensive measurements. What we can say with certainty is that the Timberwolves are awful at defense (30th in the league in DRtg) and that Andrew Wiggins doesn't make much difference: 110.6 when he plays, 111.3 when he sits. This would be enough to bump them ahead of the farcical Lakers and into 29th, but he's not moving the needle on defense. This is especially worrisome when his main backups are Kevin Martin (a career minus on defense) and Shabazz Muhammad (a career minus on both sides). Some of this is because as a perimeter player you really can't do that much to impact team defense, of course, but it's worth restating that point when people tout it as a ticket to superstardom.
He's Not Getting Better
He's playing more minutes, so his raw numbers are up, but rate-wise he took a step back in February.
-Rebounds have been right around 4.5 per 36 minutes for every month, February 4.5.
-After incredibly brutal passing in Oct/Nov (1.3 ast, 0.44 ast/tov) he's been around 2.1 and 1.13, February 2.1 and 1.00.
-He's stopped hitting and even trying 3s. 37% on .141 3PAs per FGA before, 18% on .073 during.
-This game has always been about buckets. 18.6 points per 36 minutes January, 15.6 February.
He's Okay
His free throw % is a little low at 74% but nothing worrisome, and he's drawing fouls at a very respectable .344 overall and .390 in February: the latter number would be top 40 in the league. That's a legit NBA skill. Throw in average (or better?) defense and average (or better?) rebounding and you can have a nice career in the NBA. The thing to keep in mind is that there are plenty of super athletic guys who never tapped their potential and just ended up with nice careers. In the context of the trade itself and Wiggins' career in general, there's no way to evaluate it without a much larger sample size to draw a trend from. An infinity of lines go through a single point.
The Next Pippen!
The Next LeBron!!
Better Than LeBron and Michael??
Let's all pump the brakes on Andrew Wiggins.
He Can't Pass
In 35 college games he put up 54 assists to 80(!!!) turnovers. Those are bad numbers for a center. (Andrew Wiggins is a small forward.) He has technically gotten better in the NBA with 109 assists to only 116 turnovers over 58 games, but these are still very bad numbers for a perimeter player, let alone a superstar perimeter player. In NBA history there have only been 15 perimeter players to play 2000+ minutes their first year and average 2 assists a game or less: none of them ever broke 5 assists per game. Two of those players turned out to be pretty good anyway (Adrian Dantley and Dominique Wilkins) although of course neither have rings. The other 13 put together combined for 1 All-NBA team: Lou Hudson's 2nd team in 1970. The track record isn't good for perimeter guys who can't pass, both in terms of learning how to pass and in terms of being good at basketball.
He Can't Shoot
He shot 34% from the shorter college line, and is currently shooting 35% from the NBA line. 35% isn't terrible, but he's also shooting 33% from 16-23 feet and he takes way more shots from there. He generates .791 points on long jumpers, a frankly brutal number. Even noted butchers Derrick Rose (.868), Rajon Rondo (.795), Kobe Bryant (.892), and Russell Westbrook (.838) shoot better on their careers. It's fair to point out that these men have gotten better since their rookie years, but not much: .840 .578 .849 .779 respectively, only Rondo showed > 10% improvement, and it's gonna take way more than that for Wiggins to be even an average shooter.
He's an Average Rebounder
He's currently getting 7% of available rebounds while he's on the court. That puts him at 166th of 244 players who have played enough minutes to qualify for NBA leaderboards, right about where we would expect a shooting guard to be. There are only a few point guards ahead of him, he's ahead of a few small forwards. There's nothing wrong with being average, but if you're not plus in any category it's pretty much impossible for you to be a superstar. I haven't done a lot of research on this subject, but you can also find plenty of guys who upped their TRB% after their rookie years, so this isn't as big of a concern... yet.
He's Not That Good at Defense
This has been the most pervasive element of the Wiggins mythology, as it so often is, because defensive measurements are way harder than offensive measurements. What we can say with certainty is that the Timberwolves are awful at defense (30th in the league in DRtg) and that Andrew Wiggins doesn't make much difference: 110.6 when he plays, 111.3 when he sits. This would be enough to bump them ahead of the farcical Lakers and into 29th, but he's not moving the needle on defense. This is especially worrisome when his main backups are Kevin Martin (a career minus on defense) and Shabazz Muhammad (a career minus on both sides). Some of this is because as a perimeter player you really can't do that much to impact team defense, of course, but it's worth restating that point when people tout it as a ticket to superstardom.
He's Not Getting Better
He's playing more minutes, so his raw numbers are up, but rate-wise he took a step back in February.
-Rebounds have been right around 4.5 per 36 minutes for every month, February 4.5.
-After incredibly brutal passing in Oct/Nov (1.3 ast, 0.44 ast/tov) he's been around 2.1 and 1.13, February 2.1 and 1.00.
-He's stopped hitting and even trying 3s. 37% on .141 3PAs per FGA before, 18% on .073 during.
-This game has always been about buckets. 18.6 points per 36 minutes January, 15.6 February.
He's Okay
His free throw % is a little low at 74% but nothing worrisome, and he's drawing fouls at a very respectable .344 overall and .390 in February: the latter number would be top 40 in the league. That's a legit NBA skill. Throw in average (or better?) defense and average (or better?) rebounding and you can have a nice career in the NBA. The thing to keep in mind is that there are plenty of super athletic guys who never tapped their potential and just ended up with nice careers. In the context of the trade itself and Wiggins' career in general, there's no way to evaluate it without a much larger sample size to draw a trend from. An infinity of lines go through a single point.
