Post by eric on Mar 12, 2015 20:44:10 GMT -6
Who Says He Isn't?
Me and my good buddy Facts, care of nbawowy.com. Pelicans DRtgs (points allowed per 100 possessions) in the following scenarios...
Anthony Davis on the court - 105.6 over 3603 possessions
Anthony Davis off the court - 112.5 over 2337 possessions
"But that's way better!" you may shout, and you're right! Here's the dirty little secret of on/off, though: NBA players don't play in randomized lineups. (With the possible exception of whatever the h*ck Byron Scott is doing in LA.) They play with a relatively set list of units, referred to as a "rotation". In this case, Davis plays a large percentage of his possessions with Omer Asik, but we can still get pretty good sample sizes for non-Asik possessions only...
Davis on - 109.7 over 1700
Davis off - 110.8 over 1223
And suddenly Davis' defensive impact goes from 7 points better to 1 point better. That's alright, I wouldn't call it good though.
But He's Got All Those Blocks!
Blocks are a really dumb way to measure defensive impact. The last three DPOYs were 12th (Noah), 12th (Marc G.), and 19th (Chandler) in blocks per game. You can get blocks AND be an elite defensive player, but the former doesn't necessarily indicate the latter. Note that only 10 times in the 31 year history of the DPOY award has it gone to the blocks per game leader that year: Eaton '85, Robinson '92, Hakeem '93, Mutombo '95, Mourning '99 '00, Wallace '02, Camby '07, Howard '09 '10. It's not 0% of the time, but it's closer to 0% than 100%.
Some people you probably didn't know have finished in the top 5 in blocks per game in an NBA season: JaVale McGee (twice!), Darko Milicic (!!!), Brendan Haywood, Ronny Turiaf, Chris Kaman, Elton Brand, Adonal Foyle, Raef LaFrentz. Combined All-Defense teams (which is a s***storm in its own right but still) for these men: zero.
But... I Mean, Watch the Games!
I have... and I have detailed files. Davis has two things going for him. He's in the honeymoon stage as an emerging young superstar, and his team is absolutely terrible. The only clips people see of him are where he devours a Jarrett Jack jump shot, or when he catches the ball at the three point line in full stride and dunks without dribbling, or when he comes flying into the screen with an absurdly athletic block. Nobody watches Pelicans games, and even people who do don't really care about the nitty gritty. That's why you can't just watch the games, you have to write stuff down. I have charted four Pelicans games this year, and seen the same problems in every one, and they all boil down to one thing:
Anthony Davis Doesn't Try on Defense
This manifests in three ways.
1. He gets routinely beaten down the court. In the Nets game, Thad Young beat him down the court three plays in a row. What made this especially infuriating was that because it was a meaningless game between two non-playoff teams the announcers' focus was in and out. Early in the third quarter, the Pelicans missed a shot. Young was one stride ahead of Davis as both turned to run up court. Deron Williams acted as a semi screen for Davis to run around, and Davis totally gave up on the play and joggged the rest of the way. On the ensuing Nets possession, Davis leaked out and sprinted down the court for an incredible alley-oop, prompting Spenarkle to remark "He gets down the court in a hurry, doesn't he?" When he wants to, sure! Two minutes later, after another Pelicans miss, Davis started a stride ahead of Young and ended up two strides behind. Thad Young is a worker, but it's not just him, and that's kind of the point anyway. Davis doesn't work in transition unless he smells an easy bucket or easy block.
2. He does his work late. You defend with your feet in basketball, not your hands. Davis has a 30' wingspan and super freak athleticism, so he gets in the bad habit of standing still with his hands nearly at his sides, waiting for his opponent to attempt a pass or shoot, then relying on his insane physical advantages to get the steal or block. Obviously this works several times a game, and it looks incredible when he pulls it off. Just like fooling around in football when we were kids, you never tell the QB to hit you in stride, but to make you dive for it... because it looks cooler! But it is awful fundamentals, and the same applies to Davis. If you can, watch a couple possessions where he defends and then watch a couple where Noah defends. The difference could not be more stark. Noah has his hands up to deny passing lanes and contest, he's moving his feet, he's sliding, he's bodying up. Davis stares blankly at his man.
3. There are three basic ways to defend the PnR as a big: you go past the level of the pick, you go to the level of the pick, or you go below the level of the pick. Then there are three basic permutations for each of those: you switch onto the ballhandler, you soft double or hedge and recover to your man, or you hard trap. Davis certainly cares about defense, because you can see how thoroughly he's drilled himself on what to do against the PnR. Last year he basically winged it, and was doing any old combination of the above on any given play, and because it's a team game this was a disaster. This year he has drilled himself to drop (stay below the pick), stop (the ball handler), and recover (to his man), and you can really see him going through these steps in his head as he mechanically performs them, and unfortunately for him so can opposing players. An upper level point guard will time him so that they come around the pick, pause, then drive to the hoop as he recovers too early to his man, and that's all she wrote. It's also not clear that Davis' scheme is the team's scheme, because you will see him run into his point guard teammates. It's probably a lack of communication or lack of commitment on his part, because that's more likely than the 9 different point guards New Orleans has used this season all screwing it up and not Davis.
All told I've recorded 52 pick and rolls that Davis has defended as the screen man. He's gotten stuck defending as the handler man a bunch of times because the Pelicans go zone sometimes and sometimes (most of the time) Monty Williams is a dope and does things like assign him to guard J.R. Smith. Of those 52, Davis made a good decision 16 times, an okay decision 14 times, and a bad decision 22 times. Sometimes you make a bad play and the guy misses the shot anyway, sometimes you make a good play and the guy makes it anyway. Sometimes you play the Warriors, sometimes you play the Knicks. You can't get caught up in the points allowed, you've got to watch the games and scout what the guy's doing, and Davis grades out as average.
.
The upside here is twofold. First, Davis is an absolute elite offensive player. Right now, today, he's at pre-injury Amar'e. He's devastating at the rim, he's got a credible jump shot, he draws fouls and makes his free throws. There's nothing you can give him. His numbers in these categories are a little below Amar'e's but he's not playing with prime Steve Nash so with neutral teammates they're probably equal. Neither of them can pass for beans, and may God spare us the incessant "he was a point guard in high school!!!" claptrap. (Davis doesn't average 2 assists a game, okay? He's not a point forward. He's never going to be. He doesn't need to be. Just stop.) He'll get an MVP if he ever gets on a decent team, and deservedly so.
Second, he can easily become an above-average defender just by trying, which comes down to coaching, and it's pretty clear that Monty Williams isn't going to be with us for long. Davis will never have the defensive instincts needed to be a truly elite defender, because those are innate and he's no Nate. But if you pair elite offense with above-average defense you basically get LeBron James, and that worked out pretty well for his teams.
Me and my good buddy Facts, care of nbawowy.com. Pelicans DRtgs (points allowed per 100 possessions) in the following scenarios...
Anthony Davis on the court - 105.6 over 3603 possessions
Anthony Davis off the court - 112.5 over 2337 possessions
"But that's way better!" you may shout, and you're right! Here's the dirty little secret of on/off, though: NBA players don't play in randomized lineups. (With the possible exception of whatever the h*ck Byron Scott is doing in LA.) They play with a relatively set list of units, referred to as a "rotation". In this case, Davis plays a large percentage of his possessions with Omer Asik, but we can still get pretty good sample sizes for non-Asik possessions only...
Davis on - 109.7 over 1700
Davis off - 110.8 over 1223
And suddenly Davis' defensive impact goes from 7 points better to 1 point better. That's alright, I wouldn't call it good though.
But He's Got All Those Blocks!
Blocks are a really dumb way to measure defensive impact. The last three DPOYs were 12th (Noah), 12th (Marc G.), and 19th (Chandler) in blocks per game. You can get blocks AND be an elite defensive player, but the former doesn't necessarily indicate the latter. Note that only 10 times in the 31 year history of the DPOY award has it gone to the blocks per game leader that year: Eaton '85, Robinson '92, Hakeem '93, Mutombo '95, Mourning '99 '00, Wallace '02, Camby '07, Howard '09 '10. It's not 0% of the time, but it's closer to 0% than 100%.
Some people you probably didn't know have finished in the top 5 in blocks per game in an NBA season: JaVale McGee (twice!), Darko Milicic (!!!), Brendan Haywood, Ronny Turiaf, Chris Kaman, Elton Brand, Adonal Foyle, Raef LaFrentz. Combined All-Defense teams (which is a s***storm in its own right but still) for these men: zero.
But... I Mean, Watch the Games!
I have... and I have detailed files. Davis has two things going for him. He's in the honeymoon stage as an emerging young superstar, and his team is absolutely terrible. The only clips people see of him are where he devours a Jarrett Jack jump shot, or when he catches the ball at the three point line in full stride and dunks without dribbling, or when he comes flying into the screen with an absurdly athletic block. Nobody watches Pelicans games, and even people who do don't really care about the nitty gritty. That's why you can't just watch the games, you have to write stuff down. I have charted four Pelicans games this year, and seen the same problems in every one, and they all boil down to one thing:
Anthony Davis Doesn't Try on Defense
This manifests in three ways.
1. He gets routinely beaten down the court. In the Nets game, Thad Young beat him down the court three plays in a row. What made this especially infuriating was that because it was a meaningless game between two non-playoff teams the announcers' focus was in and out. Early in the third quarter, the Pelicans missed a shot. Young was one stride ahead of Davis as both turned to run up court. Deron Williams acted as a semi screen for Davis to run around, and Davis totally gave up on the play and joggged the rest of the way. On the ensuing Nets possession, Davis leaked out and sprinted down the court for an incredible alley-oop, prompting Spenarkle to remark "He gets down the court in a hurry, doesn't he?" When he wants to, sure! Two minutes later, after another Pelicans miss, Davis started a stride ahead of Young and ended up two strides behind. Thad Young is a worker, but it's not just him, and that's kind of the point anyway. Davis doesn't work in transition unless he smells an easy bucket or easy block.
2. He does his work late. You defend with your feet in basketball, not your hands. Davis has a 30' wingspan and super freak athleticism, so he gets in the bad habit of standing still with his hands nearly at his sides, waiting for his opponent to attempt a pass or shoot, then relying on his insane physical advantages to get the steal or block. Obviously this works several times a game, and it looks incredible when he pulls it off. Just like fooling around in football when we were kids, you never tell the QB to hit you in stride, but to make you dive for it... because it looks cooler! But it is awful fundamentals, and the same applies to Davis. If you can, watch a couple possessions where he defends and then watch a couple where Noah defends. The difference could not be more stark. Noah has his hands up to deny passing lanes and contest, he's moving his feet, he's sliding, he's bodying up. Davis stares blankly at his man.
3. There are three basic ways to defend the PnR as a big: you go past the level of the pick, you go to the level of the pick, or you go below the level of the pick. Then there are three basic permutations for each of those: you switch onto the ballhandler, you soft double or hedge and recover to your man, or you hard trap. Davis certainly cares about defense, because you can see how thoroughly he's drilled himself on what to do against the PnR. Last year he basically winged it, and was doing any old combination of the above on any given play, and because it's a team game this was a disaster. This year he has drilled himself to drop (stay below the pick), stop (the ball handler), and recover (to his man), and you can really see him going through these steps in his head as he mechanically performs them, and unfortunately for him so can opposing players. An upper level point guard will time him so that they come around the pick, pause, then drive to the hoop as he recovers too early to his man, and that's all she wrote. It's also not clear that Davis' scheme is the team's scheme, because you will see him run into his point guard teammates. It's probably a lack of communication or lack of commitment on his part, because that's more likely than the 9 different point guards New Orleans has used this season all screwing it up and not Davis.
All told I've recorded 52 pick and rolls that Davis has defended as the screen man. He's gotten stuck defending as the handler man a bunch of times because the Pelicans go zone sometimes and sometimes (most of the time) Monty Williams is a dope and does things like assign him to guard J.R. Smith. Of those 52, Davis made a good decision 16 times, an okay decision 14 times, and a bad decision 22 times. Sometimes you make a bad play and the guy misses the shot anyway, sometimes you make a good play and the guy makes it anyway. Sometimes you play the Warriors, sometimes you play the Knicks. You can't get caught up in the points allowed, you've got to watch the games and scout what the guy's doing, and Davis grades out as average.
.
The upside here is twofold. First, Davis is an absolute elite offensive player. Right now, today, he's at pre-injury Amar'e. He's devastating at the rim, he's got a credible jump shot, he draws fouls and makes his free throws. There's nothing you can give him. His numbers in these categories are a little below Amar'e's but he's not playing with prime Steve Nash so with neutral teammates they're probably equal. Neither of them can pass for beans, and may God spare us the incessant "he was a point guard in high school!!!" claptrap. (Davis doesn't average 2 assists a game, okay? He's not a point forward. He's never going to be. He doesn't need to be. Just stop.) He'll get an MVP if he ever gets on a decent team, and deservedly so.
Second, he can easily become an above-average defender just by trying, which comes down to coaching, and it's pretty clear that Monty Williams isn't going to be with us for long. Davis will never have the defensive instincts needed to be a truly elite defender, because those are innate and he's no Nate. But if you pair elite offense with above-average defense you basically get LeBron James, and that worked out pretty well for his teams.
