The Fundamentals of Free Throw Shooting
Mar 20, 2015 16:26:35 GMT -6
Heynong Man and Heebs like this
Post by eric on Mar 20, 2015 16:26:35 GMT -6
Tim Duncan is one of the ten greatest to ever play the game. Two MVPs and three Finals MVPs are only matched by Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson (though if FMVPs had been given out prior to 1969 the club would definitely include Bill Russell and probably include Wilt Chamberlain). His legend will be sung in San Antonio for years to come, even after the franchise is moved to a real city.
But what's the deal with his free throw shooting?
His career percentage of 70% is quite good for a center (and don't ever let anyone tell you he's anything but a center) and middle of the pack for all time centers:
76% Moses
72% Kareem
71% Hakeem
70% Duncan
56% Russell
53% Shaq
51% Wilt
What makes Duncan unusual is the wild variance he has season to season: he has one season with sub-60% and one with super-80% FT%. The only other player in NBA history to do that (min 300 FTA) is Bernard King, who followed a catastrophic 56% season with treatment for his catastrophic substance abuse, and eventually posted back to back seasons of 82% and 80% (after his catastrophic knee injury). In his case there is a plausible explanation for the wild divergence, and a general trend:
For Duncan, nothing makes sense.
The line just goes way up and down for no apparent reason, and beyond that which can be explained by sample size (as the error bars indicate). His only serious injury was 2000, a year he followed with 62%, 80%, 71%, and 60% seasons. If you can see a trend there my hat's off to you. Compare with another all-time great in LeBron James:
LeBron has only one season that stands out: 2007, his fourth year, which saw a step back across the board statistically. This put a disappointing cherry on the frightening trend he had established his first three years, and then the playoffs happened, he single-handedly beat the Pistons, and no one ever questioned if he was clutch ever again (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA @ the media). It's ironic that the player considered so reliable that among his listed nicknames are "Groundhog Day" and "Death & Taxes" is the one to have such wild deviations in such a basic fundamental skill (although to be fair I have never heard anyone ever refer to Tim Duncan with either nickname) while the one who is routinely accused of lacking mental fortitude is actually the reliable one.
But what's the deal with his free throw shooting?
His career percentage of 70% is quite good for a center (and don't ever let anyone tell you he's anything but a center) and middle of the pack for all time centers:
76% Moses
72% Kareem
71% Hakeem
70% Duncan
56% Russell
53% Shaq
51% Wilt
What makes Duncan unusual is the wild variance he has season to season: he has one season with sub-60% and one with super-80% FT%. The only other player in NBA history to do that (min 300 FTA) is Bernard King, who followed a catastrophic 56% season with treatment for his catastrophic substance abuse, and eventually posted back to back seasons of 82% and 80% (after his catastrophic knee injury). In his case there is a plausible explanation for the wild divergence, and a general trend:
For Duncan, nothing makes sense.
The line just goes way up and down for no apparent reason, and beyond that which can be explained by sample size (as the error bars indicate). His only serious injury was 2000, a year he followed with 62%, 80%, 71%, and 60% seasons. If you can see a trend there my hat's off to you. Compare with another all-time great in LeBron James:
LeBron has only one season that stands out: 2007, his fourth year, which saw a step back across the board statistically. This put a disappointing cherry on the frightening trend he had established his first three years, and then the playoffs happened, he single-handedly beat the Pistons, and no one ever questioned if he was clutch ever again (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA @ the media). It's ironic that the player considered so reliable that among his listed nicknames are "Groundhog Day" and "Death & Taxes" is the one to have such wild deviations in such a basic fundamental skill (although to be fair I have never heard anyone ever refer to Tim Duncan with either nickname) while the one who is routinely accused of lacking mental fortitude is actually the reliable one.
