Post by eric on Mar 31, 2015 20:38:39 GMT -6
Stats this year.
21.1 PER on 22.9 USG, .187 WS/48, 3.2 VORP, .298 WP/48
21.5 PER on 21.8 USG, .212 WS/48, 3.8 VORP, .305 WP/48
It's pretty close, but you'd go with the second guy, right? Jimmy Butler. First guy is Kawhi Leonard.
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They've each been in the league four years, so we can also look at trends.
Kawhi Leonard has been the picture of consistency. He's played 1750 ± 200 minutes every year, his WS/48 bizarrely is also at .175 ± .020, his PER-USG has been between +2 and -2 even as his role (USG) has increased significantly. Consistency is good, but improvement is better.
Jimmy Butler barely played his first year, but has logged at least 2100 minutes in every year since. His stats took a step up his second year, plummeted his third, and have rebounded dramatically this year. Statistically this makes his trend an upward one, but realistically you have to decide whether the third year or this year is the fluke, which is a little worrisome.
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We can also look more fine grained: shoot, pass, finish, draw fouls, defend.
Shoot
Kawhi is the clear favorite here on career numbers at 1.018 to 0.861 points per long jumper, but the numbers converge sharply for this year with Kawhi barely leading Butler at 0.919 to 0.917. Guys don't generally forget how to shoot, but guys do get hurt, and Kawhi famously had an injury to his shooting hand that prompted Popovich to comment "One of the doctors said he's been doing hands for 40 years and it's the first time he's ever seen this injury." Definite cause for concern.
Pass
Neither guy is going to be LeBron James, and both have shown the same modest improvement following really pathetic rookie years. Butler has come the farthest in volume and efficiency: he's at 2.3 ast/tov compared to Kawhi's 1.6 this year, and has a 14% AST% compared to Kawhi's 13%. A perimeter player doesn't have to be able to pass to be elite, but it's still a mark in Butler's favor.
Finish and Draw Fouls
This one is another interesting mark in Butler's favor. Kawhi finishes at the rim at 70%, an excellent number; Butler is only at 63%, pretty good but not spectacular. They both get to the rim on about 30% of their field goal attempts, but Leonard's % of FGAs at the rim has decreased every year he's been in the league: 37%, 33%, 30%, 21%(!!!). This is especially worrisome because Butler has a huge edge in drawing fouls: 50% to 28%. Leonard is trending upwards in that department, but nowhere near enough to make up for his downward trend in close attempts. They both shoot 80% from the line so that's a wash too.
Defend
They were each on the All-Defensive 2nd Team last year, but Kawhi's on/off is more impressive on the career (-4 to 0) and especially this year (-6 to 0). This is especially troubling for Butler because the Bulls aren't a super elite defensive team this year, so the excuse of "well you can't make the best that much better" doesn't apply anymore. To me this goes to Kawhi.
Showing Up
Butler hasn't been bulletproof, but as intimated earlier he has a huge edge in playing time compared to Leonard. Some of this is certainly because Thibs coaches like it's 1999, but Kawhi has missed at least 16 games in every one of the past three seasons and 58 total, Butler has missed 31. You have to think that if Pop felt he could get more out of Kawhi with more minutes he would. Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker need their minutes managed because they're all old. Kawhi has never played for Team USA, he's 23 years old, maybe Pop limits his minutes because he's just a limited player? He doesn't foul at a high rate, he doesn't seem to have poor cardio. You also have to think that if you're offering a perimeter guy a max contract, you want more than 32 minutes a night from him. You know Butler can do that and do it well... he's doing it right now. You don't know what Kawhi can do if you extend his minutes, and he's already getting hurt left and right with limited minutes.
.
Bottom line: Butler is slightly more efficient overall, plays more minutes, and gets hurt less. If I was a team looking to max a two way wing this summer and hoping his team would blink, my first choice would be Butler.
21.1 PER on 22.9 USG, .187 WS/48, 3.2 VORP, .298 WP/48
21.5 PER on 21.8 USG, .212 WS/48, 3.8 VORP, .305 WP/48
It's pretty close, but you'd go with the second guy, right? Jimmy Butler. First guy is Kawhi Leonard.
.
They've each been in the league four years, so we can also look at trends.
Kawhi Leonard has been the picture of consistency. He's played 1750 ± 200 minutes every year, his WS/48 bizarrely is also at .175 ± .020, his PER-USG has been between +2 and -2 even as his role (USG) has increased significantly. Consistency is good, but improvement is better.
Jimmy Butler barely played his first year, but has logged at least 2100 minutes in every year since. His stats took a step up his second year, plummeted his third, and have rebounded dramatically this year. Statistically this makes his trend an upward one, but realistically you have to decide whether the third year or this year is the fluke, which is a little worrisome.
.
We can also look more fine grained: shoot, pass, finish, draw fouls, defend.
Shoot
Kawhi is the clear favorite here on career numbers at 1.018 to 0.861 points per long jumper, but the numbers converge sharply for this year with Kawhi barely leading Butler at 0.919 to 0.917. Guys don't generally forget how to shoot, but guys do get hurt, and Kawhi famously had an injury to his shooting hand that prompted Popovich to comment "One of the doctors said he's been doing hands for 40 years and it's the first time he's ever seen this injury." Definite cause for concern.
Pass
Neither guy is going to be LeBron James, and both have shown the same modest improvement following really pathetic rookie years. Butler has come the farthest in volume and efficiency: he's at 2.3 ast/tov compared to Kawhi's 1.6 this year, and has a 14% AST% compared to Kawhi's 13%. A perimeter player doesn't have to be able to pass to be elite, but it's still a mark in Butler's favor.
Finish and Draw Fouls
This one is another interesting mark in Butler's favor. Kawhi finishes at the rim at 70%, an excellent number; Butler is only at 63%, pretty good but not spectacular. They both get to the rim on about 30% of their field goal attempts, but Leonard's % of FGAs at the rim has decreased every year he's been in the league: 37%, 33%, 30%, 21%(!!!). This is especially worrisome because Butler has a huge edge in drawing fouls: 50% to 28%. Leonard is trending upwards in that department, but nowhere near enough to make up for his downward trend in close attempts. They both shoot 80% from the line so that's a wash too.
Defend
They were each on the All-Defensive 2nd Team last year, but Kawhi's on/off is more impressive on the career (-4 to 0) and especially this year (-6 to 0). This is especially troubling for Butler because the Bulls aren't a super elite defensive team this year, so the excuse of "well you can't make the best that much better" doesn't apply anymore. To me this goes to Kawhi.
Showing Up
Butler hasn't been bulletproof, but as intimated earlier he has a huge edge in playing time compared to Leonard. Some of this is certainly because Thibs coaches like it's 1999, but Kawhi has missed at least 16 games in every one of the past three seasons and 58 total, Butler has missed 31. You have to think that if Pop felt he could get more out of Kawhi with more minutes he would. Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker need their minutes managed because they're all old. Kawhi has never played for Team USA, he's 23 years old, maybe Pop limits his minutes because he's just a limited player? He doesn't foul at a high rate, he doesn't seem to have poor cardio. You also have to think that if you're offering a perimeter guy a max contract, you want more than 32 minutes a night from him. You know Butler can do that and do it well... he's doing it right now. You don't know what Kawhi can do if you extend his minutes, and he's already getting hurt left and right with limited minutes.
.
Bottom line: Butler is slightly more efficient overall, plays more minutes, and gets hurt less. If I was a team looking to max a two way wing this summer and hoping his team would blink, my first choice would be Butler.
