Post by eric on Apr 11, 2015 14:39:28 GMT -6
There have been 764 players since 1978 that have amassed 10,000+ minutes. We can count up their contribution the best way and divide by their minutes played to find Wins per 48 minutes. Here's the top twenty:
Here are the values for every player to win Finals MVP in that span AND play their entire career in it:
Here are the values for every player that won Finals MVP since 1978 but also played some number of years before:
Here are the values for the only three players to play at least 10,000 MP but finish with negative Wins:
Incredibly, two of these players were drafted by the Clippers in back to back years (Taylor #14 in 1997, Olowkoandi #1 in 1998) and BOTH made All-Rookie teams.
.
Some thoughts.
-Magic was pretty good.
-Kareem is a top 10 player in just the second half of his career. Before this era he won 5 MVPs, an FMVP, 7 All-NBA teams.
-Kobe isn't even top 10 of players from 1978-present who have won FMVPs.
-Cornbread ended up a LOT higher than I would have guessed, because...
-Offensive rebounds are hugely important to Wins Produced, to a ridiculous level really.
A list of certain players by % of their rebounds that were offensive (so ORB/TRB):
17% LeBron
20% Bird
21% Kobe
24% Magic
25% Jordan
26% Wade
34% Barkley
36% Rodman
40% Maxwell
And for reference, position figures for 2014:
18% PG
19% SG
21% SF
28% PF
32% C
I think a lot of people would guess rebounding was a strength for Bird and LeBron, I certainly would have, but Wins Produced doesn't see it quite that way. This is why it's important to use multiple metrics and smooth out these kinks, they all have them. You don't want to end up in a situation where you're saying Dennis Rodman was worth 30 wins. WS and VORP have their kinks too, though not as pronounced, so in weighting them together we get a better picture.
Unfortunately Wins Produced only go back to 1978 and VORP only to 1974, plus FMVP was only awarded from 1969-present, but we can take educated guesses. The Finals box scores are pretty sketchy in the past too, and they probably wouldn't give it to Russell every one of the ten times they could have (1969 of course went to West). Cousy frequently threatened to have as many assists as the rest of the team combined, but he also shot a brisk 35% so it's hard to make him a lock. Same story in reverse with Heinsohn. Sam Jones had a wow year in 1964, Havlicek had an outside chance in 1968. Wilt of all people left the statistical door ajar in 1967 but I think he'd take it.
As you can see it doesn't really matter, most of those types are in the same loser territory with Bill F***ing Walton. There should also be entries for George Mikan and (probably) Arnie Johnson, but the Minutes Played stat only goes back to 1952 so each them only have a few seasons on record, no sense including them. Also it's important to note that these are full career values, even if those careers extend past 1978.
.
There's really no way to go between the lists. My thought is to take the top 6 from each, in which case we get a top 12 in chronological order of...
Schayes
Pettit
Russell
Chamberlain
West
Abdul-Jabbar
Bird
Johnson
Jordan
O'Neal
Duncan
James
...and note that a grand total of 0 of these players are point guards. West was a combo guard, Magic and LeBron are small forwards. Basketball is, has always been, and will always be a big man's game.
w/48 name
0.273 Magic Johnson
0.270 David Robinson
0.256 Michael Jordan
0.255 Charles Barkley
0.245 Chris Paul
0.244 LeBron James
0.236 John Stockton
0.229 Larry Bird
0.214 Shaquille O'Neal
0.209 Dennis Rodman
0.209 Tim Duncan
0.208 Manu Ginobili
0.208 Sidney Moncrief
0.203 Karl Malone
0.202 Clyde Drexler
0.199 Arvydas Sabonis
0.198 Kevin Garnett
0.192 Kevin Durant
0.192 Dwyane Wade
0.192 Ben WallaceHere are the values for every player to win Finals MVP in that span AND play their entire career in it:
w/48 name
0.273 Magic Johnson
0.256 Michael Jordan
0.244 LeBron James
0.229 Larry Bird
0.214 Shaquille O'Neal
0.209 Tim Duncan
0.192 Dwyane Wade
0.191 Hakeem Olajuwon
0.178 Dirk Nowitzki
0.178 Cedric Maxwell
0.172 Chauncey Billups
0.169 Kobe Bryant
0.156 Paul Pierce
0.131 Tony Parker
0.126 James Worthy
0.110 Joe Dumars
0.109 Isiah ThomasHere are the values for every player that won Finals MVP since 1978 but also played some number of years before:
w/48 name
0.189 Wes Unseld
0.186 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
0.183 Moses Malone
0.103 Dennis JohnsonHere are the values for the only three players to play at least 10,000 MP but finish with negative Wins:
w/48 name
-0.011 Michael Olowokandi
-0.002 Maurice Taylor
-0.001 Jeff TurnerIncredibly, two of these players were drafted by the Clippers in back to back years (Taylor #14 in 1997, Olowkoandi #1 in 1998) and BOTH made All-Rookie teams.
.
Some thoughts.
-Magic was pretty good.
-Kareem is a top 10 player in just the second half of his career. Before this era he won 5 MVPs, an FMVP, 7 All-NBA teams.
-Kobe isn't even top 10 of players from 1978-present who have won FMVPs.
-Cornbread ended up a LOT higher than I would have guessed, because...
-Offensive rebounds are hugely important to Wins Produced, to a ridiculous level really.
A list of certain players by % of their rebounds that were offensive (so ORB/TRB):
17% LeBron
20% Bird
21% Kobe
24% Magic
25% Jordan
26% Wade
34% Barkley
36% Rodman
40% Maxwell
And for reference, position figures for 2014:
18% PG
19% SG
21% SF
28% PF
32% C
I think a lot of people would guess rebounding was a strength for Bird and LeBron, I certainly would have, but Wins Produced doesn't see it quite that way. This is why it's important to use multiple metrics and smooth out these kinks, they all have them. You don't want to end up in a situation where you're saying Dennis Rodman was worth 30 wins. WS and VORP have their kinks too, though not as pronounced, so in weighting them together we get a better picture.
Unfortunately Wins Produced only go back to 1978 and VORP only to 1974, plus FMVP was only awarded from 1969-present, but we can take educated guesses. The Finals box scores are pretty sketchy in the past too, and they probably wouldn't give it to Russell every one of the ten times they could have (1969 of course went to West). Cousy frequently threatened to have as many assists as the rest of the team combined, but he also shot a brisk 35% so it's hard to make him a lock. Same story in reverse with Heinsohn. Sam Jones had a wow year in 1964, Havlicek had an outside chance in 1968. Wilt of all people left the statistical door ajar in 1967 but I think he'd take it.
ws/48 name
0.248 Wilt Chamberlain
0.228 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
0.213 Jerry West
0.213 Bob Pettit
0.193 Bill Russell
0.192 Dolph Schayes
0.183 Paul Arizin
0.182 Sam Jones
0.156 Willis Reed
0.156 Rick Barry
0.150 Tommy Heinsohn
0.142 Bill Walton
0.139 Bob Cousy
0.136 John Havlicek
0.087 Jo Jo WhiteAs you can see it doesn't really matter, most of those types are in the same loser territory with Bill F***ing Walton. There should also be entries for George Mikan and (probably) Arnie Johnson, but the Minutes Played stat only goes back to 1952 so each them only have a few seasons on record, no sense including them. Also it's important to note that these are full career values, even if those careers extend past 1978.
.
There's really no way to go between the lists. My thought is to take the top 6 from each, in which case we get a top 12 in chronological order of...
Schayes
Pettit
Russell
Chamberlain
West
Abdul-Jabbar
Bird
Johnson
Jordan
O'Neal
Duncan
James
...and note that a grand total of 0 of these players are point guards. West was a combo guard, Magic and LeBron are small forwards. Basketball is, has always been, and will always be a big man's game.
