Post by eric on Apr 16, 2015 16:09:16 GMT -6
You're going to hear a lot of truisms from media types over the next few weeks. The most insidious of these is, as always, clutch. It is in investigating this claim that we will reveal something quite interesting about how the playoffs actually work. All stats are taken from the 2002 to 2011 seasons.
Fact: the game slows down in the playoffs.
The average regular season pace was 91.4, the average playoff pace was 89.1.
Fact: the level of competition is better in the playoffs.
The average team by definition wins 41 games, the average playoff team in this sample won 50.0 games.
It is therefore reasonable to assume that playoff games are closer than regular season games, and thus that playoff success is predicated on success in the clutch. But it turns out we don't even have to talk about clutch, because...
Fact: games AREN'T closer in the playoffs.
Over 12,177 (3 * 29 * 41 + 7 * 30 * 41) regular season games, the average margin of victory was 10.73 points.
Over 827 playoff games, the average margin of victory was 10.95 points.
The teams that win don't do so because they're better when the games get close, but because they're better throughout the games that occur in the playoffs. Do they pace themselves in the regular season, then flip the switch? Do the shorter rotations or repeated opponents exacerbate their strengths? Do they just get lucky over the smaller sample size? This I can't answer, but I can tell you clutch has nothing to do with it, and I'll even go one further: if you're looking to pick championship contenders, you should look at the teams that AREN'T clutch.
There have been 65 champions in NBA history. 60 of them had the best or second-best record on their side of the bracket. The remaining 5 had losing records in games decided by five points or less:
2007 Spurs: 8 and 11
1995 Rockets: 8 and 12
1978 Bullets: 11 and 15
1977 Blazers: 12 and 13
1969 Celtics: 9 and 15
On average, an NBA champion wins more games the larger the margin and vice versa: 57% of games decided by 5 points or less, 69% decided by 6-10, 75% decided by 11-15, and 83% decided by 16+. So who in this year's crop of playoff teams fits the championship criteria that is satisfied by 65 of the previous 65 NBA champions?
Hawks, Cavaliers, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers - top two records in each conference
Bucks, Celtics, Spurs - losing record in close games
And that's why you're not going to hear a whisper about close game record this year, when we were beaten to death with it in 2011. Clutch record is never representative, it's only ever deployed when it fits the narrative. LeBron's Heat have a bad record in the clutch? They're chokers. The Spurs have a bad record in the clutch? They're clutch anyway.
If we look at record in all non-close games, we improve our success over looking at overall record from 76% to 78%. This year the only change is for the Spurs: their non-close record predicts they will upset the Clippers, either of whom would upset the Rockets, then everyone loses to the Warriors. We expect a year to have 3 misses, though, and this is how I think the bracket will go:
Hawks over Nets, Cavs over Celtics, Bucks over Bulls, Raptors over Wizards
Warriors over Pelicans, Rockets over Mavs, Clippers over Spurs, Grizzlies over Blazers
Hawks over Raptors, Cavs over Bucks, Warriors over Grizzlies, Clippers over Rockets
Cavs over Hawks, Warriors over Clippers
Warriors over Cavs
.
One last coda on clutchness: we've had 31 years of the bracket of 16. In those 31 years, the playoff team with the best clutch record has been a different team than the one with the best overall record 21 times. The clutch team has won 0 championships in those 21 years. 0 for 21. This year the Warriors have the best record in overall, close, and non-close record. The teams to do that in the 16 team bracket era: 2013 Heat, 2000 Lakers, 1996 Bulls, 1988 and 1987 Lakers. All won titles. Watch out, rest of the NBA.
Fact: the game slows down in the playoffs.
The average regular season pace was 91.4, the average playoff pace was 89.1.
Fact: the level of competition is better in the playoffs.
The average team by definition wins 41 games, the average playoff team in this sample won 50.0 games.
It is therefore reasonable to assume that playoff games are closer than regular season games, and thus that playoff success is predicated on success in the clutch. But it turns out we don't even have to talk about clutch, because...
Fact: games AREN'T closer in the playoffs.
Over 12,177 (3 * 29 * 41 + 7 * 30 * 41) regular season games, the average margin of victory was 10.73 points.
Over 827 playoff games, the average margin of victory was 10.95 points.
The teams that win don't do so because they're better when the games get close, but because they're better throughout the games that occur in the playoffs. Do they pace themselves in the regular season, then flip the switch? Do the shorter rotations or repeated opponents exacerbate their strengths? Do they just get lucky over the smaller sample size? This I can't answer, but I can tell you clutch has nothing to do with it, and I'll even go one further: if you're looking to pick championship contenders, you should look at the teams that AREN'T clutch.
There have been 65 champions in NBA history. 60 of them had the best or second-best record on their side of the bracket. The remaining 5 had losing records in games decided by five points or less:
2007 Spurs: 8 and 11
1995 Rockets: 8 and 12
1978 Bullets: 11 and 15
1977 Blazers: 12 and 13
1969 Celtics: 9 and 15
On average, an NBA champion wins more games the larger the margin and vice versa: 57% of games decided by 5 points or less, 69% decided by 6-10, 75% decided by 11-15, and 83% decided by 16+. So who in this year's crop of playoff teams fits the championship criteria that is satisfied by 65 of the previous 65 NBA champions?
Hawks, Cavaliers, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers - top two records in each conference
Bucks, Celtics, Spurs - losing record in close games
And that's why you're not going to hear a whisper about close game record this year, when we were beaten to death with it in 2011. Clutch record is never representative, it's only ever deployed when it fits the narrative. LeBron's Heat have a bad record in the clutch? They're chokers. The Spurs have a bad record in the clutch? They're clutch anyway.
If we look at record in all non-close games, we improve our success over looking at overall record from 76% to 78%. This year the only change is for the Spurs: their non-close record predicts they will upset the Clippers, either of whom would upset the Rockets, then everyone loses to the Warriors. We expect a year to have 3 misses, though, and this is how I think the bracket will go:
Hawks over Nets, Cavs over Celtics, Bucks over Bulls, Raptors over Wizards
Warriors over Pelicans, Rockets over Mavs, Clippers over Spurs, Grizzlies over Blazers
Hawks over Raptors, Cavs over Bucks, Warriors over Grizzlies, Clippers over Rockets
Cavs over Hawks, Warriors over Clippers
Warriors over Cavs
.
One last coda on clutchness: we've had 31 years of the bracket of 16. In those 31 years, the playoff team with the best clutch record has been a different team than the one with the best overall record 21 times. The clutch team has won 0 championships in those 21 years. 0 for 21. This year the Warriors have the best record in overall, close, and non-close record. The teams to do that in the 16 team bracket era: 2013 Heat, 2000 Lakers, 1996 Bulls, 1988 and 1987 Lakers. All won titles. Watch out, rest of the NBA.
