The Long Strange Trip of Steph Curry;
May 30, 2015 14:05:58 GMT -6
Heynong Man, kn88, and 1 more like this
Post by eric on May 30, 2015 14:05:58 GMT -6
Or, Team Building in the Modern Era;
Or, The Slow Blooming Superstar
It seems like LeBron has been in the NBA for 100 years and Steph for 10 minutes. In fact, Steph is only three years younger than LeBron, and this is his sixth year in the league. A brief recap.
2009
The Warriors are pretty bad, but only get Curry because Minnesota GM David Kahn drafts Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn immediately ahead of him.
2010
Steph Curry leads the team in minutes and starts. Coached by Don Nelson who was only there to break the coaching wins record, the team had a revolving door of starting lineups. Eight players besides Curry had at least 20 starts: Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, Anthony Morrow, Anthony Tolliver, Ronny Turiaf, Andris Biedrins, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Mikki Moore. The team finishes 3 games behind the previous year's Warriors, getting the 6 pick. The 5-6-7 picks in this year's draft go...
DeMarcus Cousins
Ekpe Udoh
Greg Monroe
One of these players is not like the other. During the season, the Warriors trade Corey Maggette to the Bucks for Dan Gadzuric with some other pieces involved.
2011
The Warriors fire Nelson in favor of Keith Smart. The rotation settles down into a starting lineup of Monta / Curry / Dorell Wright / David Lee / Andris Biedrins and the team manages 36 wins. Curry leads the team in Win Shares for the first time, albeit with a mere 7. During the season, the Warriors trade Brandan Knight and Dan Gadzuric to the Nets for a 2012 2nd rounder and Troy Murphy, whom they then waive. The Warriors earn the 11th pick in the 2011 draft, getting Klay Thompson only because the Bucks with the 10th pick select Jimmer Fredette, then immediately trade him in order to get out from the Corey Maggette and John Salmons contracts.
2012
The Warriors fire Smart in favor of Rev. Mark Jackson. The rotation goes berserk, with 17 different players starting at least one game including such luminaries as Charles Jenkins, Jeremy Tyler, Dominic McGuire, and Chris Wright. If you've never heard of any of them, you're not alone. After multiple ankle sprains the previous season, Curry has his ankle surgically repaired in the offseason only to further injure it in the preseason. He misses 40 games of the lockout-shortened season, has more surgery in the offseason, and signs a 4 year, $11m per year extension slightly below his $/WS value when healthy of 8 WS * 41 Wins / $60m = $12m.
After blatantly tanking down the stretch (see above), the Warriors get the 7th pick in the 2012 draft and take Harrison Barnes. With the Nets 2nd round pick, they take Draymond Green. Effectively, and with the help of many other front offices' incompetence, over three years the Warriors turn Corey Maggette into Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
2013
The Warriors are finally good, and good thing, because way back in 2008 they traded their 1st round pick to the Nets for Marcus Williams. He played a total of 54 minutes over 9 games for the Warriors, then they waived him. They win 47 games, good for the 6 seed in the Western Conference. They beat the Nuggets because playoffs always come down to match-ups and grit and clutchness and... actually, because the Nuggets lost Gallinari to an ACL injury five minutes before the playoffs started. They lose with honor to the eventual conference champion Spurs, but the future is bright in Golden State.
2014
Nevermind. Despite acquiring Iguodala and Steph's ascension to All-Star and All-NBA status the Warriors lose in the first round, probably because Bogut gets injured in the playoffs instead of the regular season. Mark Jackson is fired. The Warriors had to trade their 2014 (and 2017) 1st rounders to get out from various lousy contracts in order to sign Iguodala in the first place, not to mention make space for Klay's extension.
2015
Steph wins MVP. The Warriors win the title.
.
The best way to win a title is to have a great player, and the best way to get a great player is to tank. Neither of these are 100% guarantees and neither of them are the only way to accomplish their goal, they are merely the best way to get the job done. In the past, drafting a great player meant the tank was over, because great players mean wins...
after drafting Chris Paul, the New Orleans / Oklahoma City | Hornets / Pelicans had 0 top ten picks until he left
after drafting LeBron James, the Cavaliers had 1 top ten pick (Luke Jackson)
after drafting Tim Duncan, the Spurs have never picked better than 1.20
after drafting Michael Jordan, the Bulls didn't earn a lottery pick until 1999
...but the two most recent great players have seen a change in this dynamic...
after drafting Kevin Durant, the Thunder got a top 5 pick the next two years
after drafting Steph Curry, the Warriors got a top 10 pick in two of the next three years plus Klay at #11
...this is especially remarkable when we consider that Steph played three years in college and would therefore be expected to be more NBA ready rather than less. It's also not a case of brilliant maneuvering by the OKC or GSW front offices. We saw the problems with GSW above, everyone knows about the Harden trade by OKC, but consider also the 2010 draft:
Eric Bledsoe at #18, immediately traded to the Clippers for a 2012 1st rounder, later included in the Kendrick Perkins trade
Craig Brackins at #21 and Quincy Pondexter at #26, immediately traded to Philadelphia for Cole Aldrich and Mo Peterson
Cole Aldrich plays under 300 minutes and is included in the Harden trade
Mo Pete plays 4 games and is traded for Nazr Mohammed, who plays a year and walks for nothing
.
Bottom Line
Each team got as good as it is for one reason: other front offices were even dumber. At least one team passed on each of Durant and Curry, each team only filled out the roster because each star took several years to get good AND each of those drafts featured colossal blunders by other teams.
Or, The Slow Blooming Superstar
It seems like LeBron has been in the NBA for 100 years and Steph for 10 minutes. In fact, Steph is only three years younger than LeBron, and this is his sixth year in the league. A brief recap.
2009
The Warriors are pretty bad, but only get Curry because Minnesota GM David Kahn drafts Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn immediately ahead of him.
2010
Steph Curry leads the team in minutes and starts. Coached by Don Nelson who was only there to break the coaching wins record, the team had a revolving door of starting lineups. Eight players besides Curry had at least 20 starts: Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, Anthony Morrow, Anthony Tolliver, Ronny Turiaf, Andris Biedrins, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Mikki Moore. The team finishes 3 games behind the previous year's Warriors, getting the 6 pick. The 5-6-7 picks in this year's draft go...
DeMarcus Cousins
Ekpe Udoh
Greg Monroe
One of these players is not like the other. During the season, the Warriors trade Corey Maggette to the Bucks for Dan Gadzuric with some other pieces involved.
2011
The Warriors fire Nelson in favor of Keith Smart. The rotation settles down into a starting lineup of Monta / Curry / Dorell Wright / David Lee / Andris Biedrins and the team manages 36 wins. Curry leads the team in Win Shares for the first time, albeit with a mere 7. During the season, the Warriors trade Brandan Knight and Dan Gadzuric to the Nets for a 2012 2nd rounder and Troy Murphy, whom they then waive. The Warriors earn the 11th pick in the 2011 draft, getting Klay Thompson only because the Bucks with the 10th pick select Jimmer Fredette, then immediately trade him in order to get out from the Corey Maggette and John Salmons contracts.
2012
The Warriors fire Smart in favor of Rev. Mark Jackson. The rotation goes berserk, with 17 different players starting at least one game including such luminaries as Charles Jenkins, Jeremy Tyler, Dominic McGuire, and Chris Wright. If you've never heard of any of them, you're not alone. After multiple ankle sprains the previous season, Curry has his ankle surgically repaired in the offseason only to further injure it in the preseason. He misses 40 games of the lockout-shortened season, has more surgery in the offseason, and signs a 4 year, $11m per year extension slightly below his $/WS value when healthy of 8 WS * 41 Wins / $60m = $12m.
After blatantly tanking down the stretch (see above), the Warriors get the 7th pick in the 2012 draft and take Harrison Barnes. With the Nets 2nd round pick, they take Draymond Green. Effectively, and with the help of many other front offices' incompetence, over three years the Warriors turn Corey Maggette into Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
2013
The Warriors are finally good, and good thing, because way back in 2008 they traded their 1st round pick to the Nets for Marcus Williams. He played a total of 54 minutes over 9 games for the Warriors, then they waived him. They win 47 games, good for the 6 seed in the Western Conference. They beat the Nuggets because playoffs always come down to match-ups and grit and clutchness and... actually, because the Nuggets lost Gallinari to an ACL injury five minutes before the playoffs started. They lose with honor to the eventual conference champion Spurs, but the future is bright in Golden State.
2014
Nevermind. Despite acquiring Iguodala and Steph's ascension to All-Star and All-NBA status the Warriors lose in the first round, probably because Bogut gets injured in the playoffs instead of the regular season. Mark Jackson is fired. The Warriors had to trade their 2014 (and 2017) 1st rounders to get out from various lousy contracts in order to sign Iguodala in the first place, not to mention make space for Klay's extension.
2015
Steph wins MVP. The Warriors win the title.
.
The best way to win a title is to have a great player, and the best way to get a great player is to tank. Neither of these are 100% guarantees and neither of them are the only way to accomplish their goal, they are merely the best way to get the job done. In the past, drafting a great player meant the tank was over, because great players mean wins...
after drafting Chris Paul, the New Orleans / Oklahoma City | Hornets / Pelicans had 0 top ten picks until he left
after drafting LeBron James, the Cavaliers had 1 top ten pick (Luke Jackson)
after drafting Tim Duncan, the Spurs have never picked better than 1.20
after drafting Michael Jordan, the Bulls didn't earn a lottery pick until 1999
...but the two most recent great players have seen a change in this dynamic...
after drafting Kevin Durant, the Thunder got a top 5 pick the next two years
after drafting Steph Curry, the Warriors got a top 10 pick in two of the next three years plus Klay at #11
...this is especially remarkable when we consider that Steph played three years in college and would therefore be expected to be more NBA ready rather than less. It's also not a case of brilliant maneuvering by the OKC or GSW front offices. We saw the problems with GSW above, everyone knows about the Harden trade by OKC, but consider also the 2010 draft:
Eric Bledsoe at #18, immediately traded to the Clippers for a 2012 1st rounder, later included in the Kendrick Perkins trade
Craig Brackins at #21 and Quincy Pondexter at #26, immediately traded to Philadelphia for Cole Aldrich and Mo Peterson
Cole Aldrich plays under 300 minutes and is included in the Harden trade
Mo Pete plays 4 games and is traded for Nazr Mohammed, who plays a year and walks for nothing
.
Bottom Line
Each team got as good as it is for one reason: other front offices were even dumber. At least one team passed on each of Durant and Curry, each team only filled out the roster because each star took several years to get good AND each of those drafts featured colossal blunders by other teams.
