NBA Free Agency-stravaganza Review-apalooza
Jul 11, 2015 13:42:54 GMT -6
Heynong Man, kn88, and 1 more like this
Post by eric on Jul 11, 2015 13:42:54 GMT -6
EAST
Hawks
Enjoyed excellent health last year: all starters played 69+ games. Carroll and Antic out, Hardaway in. Carroll is a big loss because he's a small loss in so many areas: best perimeter defender by a bit, strong shooter, not a frequent passer but an efficient one. Antic acted like a stretch 5 even though he was a piss poor shooter, but the Mikes didn't get the job done either so he still played a real role in the third big by committee. Hardaway could barely start for the Knicks, and wouldn't have even played for last year's Hawks (being a worse version of Thabo Sefolosha). He's a massive downgrade on Carroll.
Net: DOWN
Cavaliers
A year of continuity, getting Varejao back, having Mozgov and Shump from the beginning of the year instead of 40 games in... these are all good, but the only thing that matters is LeBron taking a reduced role (relatively speaking) to accommodate his declining skills. If he buys into that, the Cavs are locks for the #1 seed. If he doesn't, the Cavs still have a pretty easy road to the #1 seed. Mo Williams doesn't matter and probably makes the Cavs worse if he plays over Delly: guys who play on 5 teams in 4 years are generally not good.
Net: UP
Bulls
Roster wise they're just running it back from last year. Gasol Noah Dunleavy Brooks and Hinrich are in decline(!!!), there's no reason to believe Butler and Rose will suddenly iron out their differences or Rose will suddenly learn how to shoot. Hoiberg might play a modern NBA offense (i.e. Mirotic over Gibson) but still, this roster is two years past its window.
Net: DOWN
Raptors
They have a little upside left in Jonas and Terrence Ross, nobody's too old yet, and they killed free agency: Cory Joseph is a huge upgrade over Lou Williams, Carroll is a huge upgrade over Amir Johnson, and Luis Scola for Greivis Vasquez is a draw. It's always going to be awkward trying to fit DeRozan and Valanciunas on the same team, so I don't think of the Raptors as contenders, but they're maximizing their core.
Net: UP
Wizards
Had the Beal and contractually obligated Nene injuries in the regular season, got crushed by a Wall injury in the playoffs: +2 in the three games vs. Atlanta with him, -19 in the three without. Randy uhhhhhh Wittman is still an anchor around their necks, but they also upgraded. Alan Anderson and Jared Dudley give you more than Paul Pierce, Gary Neal is pretty bad but he's better than Andre Miller at this point, a year of growth for Porter and Beal. I like them for the Eastern Conference Finals.
Net: UP
Bucks
An oddball team gets odder. Middleton and Ilyasova were the only shooters in their starting lineup last year, they effectively swapped Ilyasova for Greg Monroe although they'll almost certainly play him at center and have Parker at the power forward. Vasquez is a better backup PG than Bayless but the main thing will be the growth of the young guns: Giannis, Parker, Middleton, MCW. If your starting backcourt goes 0 for 1 per game from three in the playoffs, you're not going anywhere. One or both of them has to learn how to shoot, which is a mysterious process in the NBA. Some guys (Kawhi) can do it in a summer, some guys (Rondo) can't do it in a decade.
Net: ???
Pacers
Two years ago they were the #1 seed in the East. They have since lost three starters (Lance, West, Hibbert) and three bench guys (Watson, Turner, Scola). They've added Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis. There is 0 chance they contend next year, and I wouldn't even bet on their making the playoffs: their current starting bigs are probably Damjan Rudez and Ian Mahinmi.
Net: STILL BAD
Heat
Massively underachieved last year even with all the injuries. Dwayne Wade started missing games in 2012, but he was still elite when he played in '12 and '13, and he was still good when he played in '14. He was poor when he played in '15, and if he's going to yoyo in and out of the lineup on top of it that's a problem. On the upside, Dragic and Bosh is a terrifying pick and roll, Gerald Green and Amare shore up a punchless bench. If they can get half Whiteside's production (which seems like the probable outcome) and full years from Dragic and Bosh they're a solid playoff team.
Net: WAY UP
Hornets
They added the big goofy white guy who takes 3s and also Frank Kaminsky. Nic Batum fits better on literally every team than Lance Stephenson does. But Kemba still can't shoot and Al still can't run, so even with better injury luck the ceiling is first round roadkill.
Net: BOB'S YOUR UNCLE OOPS WRONG NAME
Pistons and Magic
Young teams taking alternate paths forward. The Pistons looked for better fits at the expense of talent, the Magic added yet another mid sized slasher type with big upside. Both could sniff the eight seed, the Pistons have the better average outlook going forward, the Magic have the much higher ceiling but almost certainly won't get there.
MY GUESS
Cavs over Heat, Wizards over Bucks
Cavs over Wiz in ECF
.
WEST
Warriors
It took not a once-in-a-generation, not a once-in-a-lifetime, but a once-in-forever performance by LeBron to even make the Warriors sweat, and they still won the Finals pretty easily. Bogut is only 30, Iggy is only 31, everyone else is in their prime or in Harrison Barnes' case about to enter it at 22. They slightly exceeded their Pythagorean projection and had good health luck, but their only real challenge is the disease of me. It gets a little dicey year after next, but for 2016 they're the prohibitive championship favorites.
Net: RINGS
Clippers
TBD if DeAndre actually signs there or not.
Clippers
Naw I'm just playing. I don't think they'll get anything out of Pierce on the court. Lance was historically bad last year: by Win Shares he had the worst year of a 25+ game starter since Darius Miles for the '03 Cavaliers, who were trying to lose. Wes Johnson to me is their big pickup this year. He's not going to put up big numbers anywhere, his advanced stats aren't going to be very good, but the Clippers have been searching for a guy to hit threes and play wing defense for about a thousand years, and he's that guy. The fit is perfect. Paul Pierce's biggest contribution will probably be slapping the s*** out of Lance to keep the locker room in line.
Net: UP
Rockets
Their expected starting bigs last year were Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard. They got a combined 74 games from them, lost their third big Donatas to injury too, and still managed to get the #2 seed. A lot of this was luck: +6 over their Pythagorean expectation to the Clippers' -2. Still, with even run-of-the-mill bad injury luck instead of comically terrible they're a strong contender. Donatas' hilariously translated Wikipedia article lists him as leading "the league in accurate shots by playing through his back" and "7th most universal big man", so they've got that going for them too. Also James Harden will never stop taking all the threes and drawing all the fouls.
Net: UP
Spurs
The juiciest team this offseason, and I'm not buying it. The Spurs have only ever reached the Finals from the 3 seed or higher: 2014 #1, 2013 #2, 2007 #3, 2005 #2, 2003 #1, 1999 #1. Also note that in 2007 and 2013 the #1 seeds lost earlier in the playoffs, so the Spurs have only ever beaten two West teams on the road, and they had to brazenly cheat to beat the 2007 Suns. The Spurs don't sneak into the playoffs and then punch above their weight. Seeding matters, and they had to detonate their depth to get LMA: Joseph, Splitter, Baynes, and Belly combined for 15.3 Win Shares last year. David West and Ray McCallum (a very interesting piece) combined for 5.7. That leaves 9.6 for Aldridge, who has managed to do that a sum total of once in his NBA career (2011). Also consider the list of Spurs players who will be 30+ this year: Duncan, Ginobili, Bonner, West, Parker, Diaw... and Aldridge! People are talking like Aldridge and Kawhi are a lock to just ramp it up and make up for all these losses, but each player posted the highest USG% of their careers last year, and each player has missed about 10 games a year over the past four years. It would take huge leaps and perfect health from both of them for the Spurs to just tread water.
Net: DOWN
Grizz
Another team collectively on the wrong side of 30 but with no marquee pickup. Like the Rockets vs. Clippers, the Grizzlies enjoyed strong luck over their Pythagorean at +5 to the Spurs' -3. This team's going nowhere but
Net: DOWN
Mavericks and Blazers
Sorry.
Net: SORRY
Pelicans
Like the Bulls they're running back the same roster with a new coach. Unlike the Bulls this coach is an upgrade, but like the Bulls there's no real chance this team makes any noise in the playoffs. Anthony Davis can't get much better statistically, but even if his on court play catches up to his stats there's just way too far to go for the Pelicans. Remember that when LeBron single-handedly annihilated the East for the Cavs (the first time, I mean) he started out in the #2 seed. The Pelicans will be lucky to get #6, and Davis will toil away with a mediocre supporting cast for the next six years before fleeing for greener pastures.
Net: LEBRON REDUX
Thunder
It's now or never for the Thunder, and the brilliant front office has brought in the rights to Tomislav Zubcic. Great job, Presti. Good effort. A real coach and good health will carry the Thunder back to the #2-#4 seed territory, but the Warriors are more talented, better fit, better coached, and don't have Dion Waiters. A brief reminder of relative team composition.
2012 Thunder - James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison
2016 Thunder - Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow, Enes Kanter
Net: THERE'S JUST NO WAY
MY GUESS
Warriors over Thunder, Clippers over Rockets
Warriors over Clippers in WCF
.
There have only been four Finals rematches since the 1977 merger...
2013/2014: Heat over Spurs, Spurs over Heat
1997/1998: Bulls over Jazz 2x
1988/1989: Lakers over Pistons, Pistons over Lakers
1978/1979: Bullets over Sonics, Sonics over Bullets
From that perspective it's pretty unlikely, but I don't see how anyone can make a rational case for the Cavs to not be overwhelming favorites in the East or the Warriors to not be overwhelming favorites overall.
Hawks
Enjoyed excellent health last year: all starters played 69+ games. Carroll and Antic out, Hardaway in. Carroll is a big loss because he's a small loss in so many areas: best perimeter defender by a bit, strong shooter, not a frequent passer but an efficient one. Antic acted like a stretch 5 even though he was a piss poor shooter, but the Mikes didn't get the job done either so he still played a real role in the third big by committee. Hardaway could barely start for the Knicks, and wouldn't have even played for last year's Hawks (being a worse version of Thabo Sefolosha). He's a massive downgrade on Carroll.
Net: DOWN
Cavaliers
A year of continuity, getting Varejao back, having Mozgov and Shump from the beginning of the year instead of 40 games in... these are all good, but the only thing that matters is LeBron taking a reduced role (relatively speaking) to accommodate his declining skills. If he buys into that, the Cavs are locks for the #1 seed. If he doesn't, the Cavs still have a pretty easy road to the #1 seed. Mo Williams doesn't matter and probably makes the Cavs worse if he plays over Delly: guys who play on 5 teams in 4 years are generally not good.
Net: UP
Bulls
Roster wise they're just running it back from last year. Gasol Noah Dunleavy Brooks and Hinrich are in decline(!!!), there's no reason to believe Butler and Rose will suddenly iron out their differences or Rose will suddenly learn how to shoot. Hoiberg might play a modern NBA offense (i.e. Mirotic over Gibson) but still, this roster is two years past its window.
Net: DOWN
Raptors
They have a little upside left in Jonas and Terrence Ross, nobody's too old yet, and they killed free agency: Cory Joseph is a huge upgrade over Lou Williams, Carroll is a huge upgrade over Amir Johnson, and Luis Scola for Greivis Vasquez is a draw. It's always going to be awkward trying to fit DeRozan and Valanciunas on the same team, so I don't think of the Raptors as contenders, but they're maximizing their core.
Net: UP
Wizards
Had the Beal and contractually obligated Nene injuries in the regular season, got crushed by a Wall injury in the playoffs: +2 in the three games vs. Atlanta with him, -19 in the three without. Randy uhhhhhh Wittman is still an anchor around their necks, but they also upgraded. Alan Anderson and Jared Dudley give you more than Paul Pierce, Gary Neal is pretty bad but he's better than Andre Miller at this point, a year of growth for Porter and Beal. I like them for the Eastern Conference Finals.
Net: UP
Bucks
An oddball team gets odder. Middleton and Ilyasova were the only shooters in their starting lineup last year, they effectively swapped Ilyasova for Greg Monroe although they'll almost certainly play him at center and have Parker at the power forward. Vasquez is a better backup PG than Bayless but the main thing will be the growth of the young guns: Giannis, Parker, Middleton, MCW. If your starting backcourt goes 0 for 1 per game from three in the playoffs, you're not going anywhere. One or both of them has to learn how to shoot, which is a mysterious process in the NBA. Some guys (Kawhi) can do it in a summer, some guys (Rondo) can't do it in a decade.
Net: ???
Pacers
Two years ago they were the #1 seed in the East. They have since lost three starters (Lance, West, Hibbert) and three bench guys (Watson, Turner, Scola). They've added Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis. There is 0 chance they contend next year, and I wouldn't even bet on their making the playoffs: their current starting bigs are probably Damjan Rudez and Ian Mahinmi.
Net: STILL BAD
Heat
Massively underachieved last year even with all the injuries. Dwayne Wade started missing games in 2012, but he was still elite when he played in '12 and '13, and he was still good when he played in '14. He was poor when he played in '15, and if he's going to yoyo in and out of the lineup on top of it that's a problem. On the upside, Dragic and Bosh is a terrifying pick and roll, Gerald Green and Amare shore up a punchless bench. If they can get half Whiteside's production (which seems like the probable outcome) and full years from Dragic and Bosh they're a solid playoff team.
Net: WAY UP
Hornets
They added the big goofy white guy who takes 3s and also Frank Kaminsky. Nic Batum fits better on literally every team than Lance Stephenson does. But Kemba still can't shoot and Al still can't run, so even with better injury luck the ceiling is first round roadkill.
Net: BOB'S YOUR UNCLE OOPS WRONG NAME
Pistons and Magic
Young teams taking alternate paths forward. The Pistons looked for better fits at the expense of talent, the Magic added yet another mid sized slasher type with big upside. Both could sniff the eight seed, the Pistons have the better average outlook going forward, the Magic have the much higher ceiling but almost certainly won't get there.
MY GUESS
Cavs over Heat, Wizards over Bucks
Cavs over Wiz in ECF
.
WEST
Warriors
It took not a once-in-a-generation, not a once-in-a-lifetime, but a once-in-forever performance by LeBron to even make the Warriors sweat, and they still won the Finals pretty easily. Bogut is only 30, Iggy is only 31, everyone else is in their prime or in Harrison Barnes' case about to enter it at 22. They slightly exceeded their Pythagorean projection and had good health luck, but their only real challenge is the disease of me. It gets a little dicey year after next, but for 2016 they're the prohibitive championship favorites.
Net: RINGS
Clippers
TBD if DeAndre actually signs there or not.
Clippers
Naw I'm just playing. I don't think they'll get anything out of Pierce on the court. Lance was historically bad last year: by Win Shares he had the worst year of a 25+ game starter since Darius Miles for the '03 Cavaliers, who were trying to lose. Wes Johnson to me is their big pickup this year. He's not going to put up big numbers anywhere, his advanced stats aren't going to be very good, but the Clippers have been searching for a guy to hit threes and play wing defense for about a thousand years, and he's that guy. The fit is perfect. Paul Pierce's biggest contribution will probably be slapping the s*** out of Lance to keep the locker room in line.
Net: UP
Rockets
Their expected starting bigs last year were Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard. They got a combined 74 games from them, lost their third big Donatas to injury too, and still managed to get the #2 seed. A lot of this was luck: +6 over their Pythagorean expectation to the Clippers' -2. Still, with even run-of-the-mill bad injury luck instead of comically terrible they're a strong contender. Donatas' hilariously translated Wikipedia article lists him as leading "the league in accurate shots by playing through his back" and "7th most universal big man", so they've got that going for them too. Also James Harden will never stop taking all the threes and drawing all the fouls.
Net: UP
Spurs
The juiciest team this offseason, and I'm not buying it. The Spurs have only ever reached the Finals from the 3 seed or higher: 2014 #1, 2013 #2, 2007 #3, 2005 #2, 2003 #1, 1999 #1. Also note that in 2007 and 2013 the #1 seeds lost earlier in the playoffs, so the Spurs have only ever beaten two West teams on the road, and they had to brazenly cheat to beat the 2007 Suns. The Spurs don't sneak into the playoffs and then punch above their weight. Seeding matters, and they had to detonate their depth to get LMA: Joseph, Splitter, Baynes, and Belly combined for 15.3 Win Shares last year. David West and Ray McCallum (a very interesting piece) combined for 5.7. That leaves 9.6 for Aldridge, who has managed to do that a sum total of once in his NBA career (2011). Also consider the list of Spurs players who will be 30+ this year: Duncan, Ginobili, Bonner, West, Parker, Diaw... and Aldridge! People are talking like Aldridge and Kawhi are a lock to just ramp it up and make up for all these losses, but each player posted the highest USG% of their careers last year, and each player has missed about 10 games a year over the past four years. It would take huge leaps and perfect health from both of them for the Spurs to just tread water.
Net: DOWN
Grizz
Another team collectively on the wrong side of 30 but with no marquee pickup. Like the Rockets vs. Clippers, the Grizzlies enjoyed strong luck over their Pythagorean at +5 to the Spurs' -3. This team's going nowhere but
Net: DOWN
Mavericks and Blazers
Sorry.
Net: SORRY
Pelicans
Like the Bulls they're running back the same roster with a new coach. Unlike the Bulls this coach is an upgrade, but like the Bulls there's no real chance this team makes any noise in the playoffs. Anthony Davis can't get much better statistically, but even if his on court play catches up to his stats there's just way too far to go for the Pelicans. Remember that when LeBron single-handedly annihilated the East for the Cavs (the first time, I mean) he started out in the #2 seed. The Pelicans will be lucky to get #6, and Davis will toil away with a mediocre supporting cast for the next six years before fleeing for greener pastures.
Net: LEBRON REDUX
Thunder
It's now or never for the Thunder, and the brilliant front office has brought in the rights to Tomislav Zubcic. Great job, Presti. Good effort. A real coach and good health will carry the Thunder back to the #2-#4 seed territory, but the Warriors are more talented, better fit, better coached, and don't have Dion Waiters. A brief reminder of relative team composition.
2012 Thunder - James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison
2016 Thunder - Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow, Enes Kanter
Net: THERE'S JUST NO WAY
MY GUESS
Warriors over Thunder, Clippers over Rockets
Warriors over Clippers in WCF
.
There have only been four Finals rematches since the 1977 merger...
2013/2014: Heat over Spurs, Spurs over Heat
1997/1998: Bulls over Jazz 2x
1988/1989: Lakers over Pistons, Pistons over Lakers
1978/1979: Bullets over Sonics, Sonics over Bullets
From that perspective it's pretty unlikely, but I don't see how anyone can make a rational case for the Cavs to not be overwhelming favorites in the East or the Warriors to not be overwhelming favorites overall.
