Post by eric on Aug 18, 2015 13:12:44 GMT -6
On user request, here are two scenarios.
1. A max everything small forward vs. a league of min everything.
Result: 82-0, 16-0, a modest 108.0 ORtg but a hilarious 60.8 DRtg.
Max himself averaged 54 ppg, 27 rpg, 8 apg, 7 steals, 1.3 blocks
62% fg%, 94% ft%, 53% 3p%; 31 FGA/g, 12 FTA/g, 13 3PA/g
1.409 pts/tsa, 4.8 ast/tov, 4.04 defenses/PF
Max took 551 threes (and made 292), the rest of the league combined took 78 (and made 9)
2. Defense, frontcourt or backcourt?
This one turned out to be a lot more interesting. I took the null league above and created plus defenders on two teams: Boston had PF/C, Dallas had PG/SG. I didn't change their Strength or Quickness because those help things besides defense. I then ran fifteen seasons and here's what I found: Dallas won the championship every year where Boston commonly failed to even make it there, and on average won 61.9 games to Boston's 57.7.
However, I realized that by default the software made every team's point guard their #1 scoring option. When I re-ran the simulation with no primary scoring options in the depth chart, Dallas still won more games in the regular season but the playoffs were more competitive: Dallas won 8 rings, Boston 6, and once Dallas failed to reach the Finals.
Every team in the simulation ran a balanced offense, which means a 17-17-19-19-28 split from center to point guard even without scoring options, so I wondered if I was just seeing that point guards are in the line of fire the most. This time I set up Boston as sg/sf and Dallas as just pg. The result was 63.7 wins for Boston, 52.6 for Dallas, and Boston dominating the Finals.
Finally, I compared sg/sf to pg/sg, and this one I ran 30 times because the results were so close: 64.1 to 63.2, 13 rings to 14 (three no contests). This suggests to me that perimeter defenders can switch among each other, so sg/sf and pg/sg ends up being the same thing.
.
All told, the most important defense is the one that builds a f***ing wall where the offense wants to go. As of right now, the depth charts of our league look like this:
13 outside, 12 balanced, 4 inside
I made weighted total by estimating that #1 option is worth +3.5 usage, #2 is worth +2.5, and #3 is worth +1.5. I've only done a little on scoring options so those are just estimates, but if we add that to the usage breakdown per offense type we get a leaguewide average of...
PG 28.3%
SG 20.6%
SF 18.0%
PF 16.8%
C_ 16.3%
So in our league, perimeter defense is way more important than big man defense.
.
.
People are always free to submit more requests like these, but I'm shifting focus to more training camp stuff for awhile so there won't be a quick turnaround.
1. A max everything small forward vs. a league of min everything.
Result: 82-0, 16-0, a modest 108.0 ORtg but a hilarious 60.8 DRtg.
Max himself averaged 54 ppg, 27 rpg, 8 apg, 7 steals, 1.3 blocks
62% fg%, 94% ft%, 53% 3p%; 31 FGA/g, 12 FTA/g, 13 3PA/g
1.409 pts/tsa, 4.8 ast/tov, 4.04 defenses/PF
Max took 551 threes (and made 292), the rest of the league combined took 78 (and made 9)
2. Defense, frontcourt or backcourt?
This one turned out to be a lot more interesting. I took the null league above and created plus defenders on two teams: Boston had PF/C, Dallas had PG/SG. I didn't change their Strength or Quickness because those help things besides defense. I then ran fifteen seasons and here's what I found: Dallas won the championship every year where Boston commonly failed to even make it there, and on average won 61.9 games to Boston's 57.7.
However, I realized that by default the software made every team's point guard their #1 scoring option. When I re-ran the simulation with no primary scoring options in the depth chart, Dallas still won more games in the regular season but the playoffs were more competitive: Dallas won 8 rings, Boston 6, and once Dallas failed to reach the Finals.
Every team in the simulation ran a balanced offense, which means a 17-17-19-19-28 split from center to point guard even without scoring options, so I wondered if I was just seeing that point guards are in the line of fire the most. This time I set up Boston as sg/sf and Dallas as just pg. The result was 63.7 wins for Boston, 52.6 for Dallas, and Boston dominating the Finals.
Finally, I compared sg/sf to pg/sg, and this one I ran 30 times because the results were so close: 64.1 to 63.2, 13 rings to 14 (three no contests). This suggests to me that perimeter defenders can switch among each other, so sg/sf and pg/sg ends up being the same thing.
.
All told, the most important defense is the one that builds a f***ing wall where the offense wants to go. As of right now, the depth charts of our league look like this:
13 outside, 12 balanced, 4 inside
pos #1 #2 #3 tot wt tot
pg 7 8 7 22 55
sg 9 9 5 23 62
sf 6 4 8 18 43
pf 4 5 6 15 36
c_ 3 3 3 9 23I made weighted total by estimating that #1 option is worth +3.5 usage, #2 is worth +2.5, and #3 is worth +1.5. I've only done a little on scoring options so those are just estimates, but if we add that to the usage breakdown per offense type we get a leaguewide average of...
PG 28.3%
SG 20.6%
SF 18.0%
PF 16.8%
C_ 16.3%
So in our league, perimeter defense is way more important than big man defense.
.
.
People are always free to submit more requests like these, but I'm shifting focus to more training camp stuff for awhile so there won't be a quick turnaround.
